When Will the Stock Market Crash? (2024)

FAQs

Is the market going to crash in 2024? ›

Given the outperformance of large-cap (23 percent) and mid-cap (58 percent) stocks in the past year, brokerage house Investec believes the probability of a correction (10 percent drawdown) in 2024 is high. The Indian market has outperformed major global markets in the last one year as well as in the past decade.

And while theoretically possible, the entire US stock market going to zero would be incredibly unlikely. It would, in fact, take a catastrophic event involving the total dissolution of the US government and economic system for this to occur.

There is no official threshold for what qualifies as a stock market crash. But a common standard is the rapid double-digit percentage decline over a period of several days in a stock index, such as the Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 Index or Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).

Wall Street analysts' consensus estimates predict 3.6% earnings growth and 3.5% revenue growth for S&P 500 companies in the first quarter. Analysts project full-year S&P 500 earnings growth of 11.0% in 2024, but analysts are more optimistic about some market sectors than others.

"2024 is bound to be a better year for homebuyers, if only because of how terrible 2023 was," says John Graff, CEO at Ashby & Graff Real Estate. Graff anticipates falling interest rates and increasing inventory could result in more opportunities for homebuyers in the months ahead.

According to Wang and Tyler, the economic data should "give more confidence that the US economy is recovering in additional sectors" and that "recession fears for 2024 are likely to be pushed into 2025."

Do you lose all the money if the stock market crashes? No, a stock market crash only indicates a fall in prices where a majority of investors face losses but do not completely lose all the money. The money is lost only when the positions are sold during or after the crash.

You can lose all your money in stocks or any other investment that has some degree of risk. However, this is rare. Even if you only hold one stock that does very poorly, you'll usually retain some residual value.

If a stock falls to or close to zero, it means that the company is effectively bankrupt and has no value to shareholders. “A company typically goes to zero when it becomes bankrupt or is technically insolvent, such as Silicon Valley Bank,” says Darren Sissons, partner and portfolio manager at Campbell, Lee & Ross.

Sometimes, however, the economy turns or an asset bubble pops—in which case, markets crash. Investors who experience a crash can lose money if they sell their positions, instead of waiting it out for a rise. Those who have purchased stock on margin may be forced to liquidate at a loss due to margin calls.

What goes up when market crashes? ›

What goes up if the stock market crashes? There is nothing that will definitely go up if the stock market crashes. Interest bearing investments such as money market funds will continue to earn interest. Bonds may hold their value or increase, and individual bonds including Treasury's will continue to earn interest.

“In other words, the money did not exist or disappear for long-term investors if you did not make any transactions. However, for short-term investors, when stock prices go up or down, the money would be transferred among them as a zero-sum game, i.e. your losses would be others' gains, and vice versa.”

Economic growth actually accelerated above its 10-year average in 2023. That resilience, coupled with a fascination about artificial intelligence (AI), changed investors' collective mood. The S&P 500 soared throughout the year and finally reached a new high in January 2024, making the new bull market official.

Meanwhile, the median streak of positive returns can extend to 17 months with a gain of 14%, based on historical data. That suggests the S&P 500 could trade to 6,000 by August 2025, and to as high as 6,150 by November 2025.

Economic growth is projected to slow in 2024 amid increased unemployment and lower inflation. CBO expects the Federal Reserve to respond by reducing interest rates, starting in the middle of the year. In CBO's projections, economic growth rebounds in 2025 and then moderates in later years.

After global growth exceeded expectations in 2023, businesses' perceived probability of a global recession has fallen substantially in 2024, according to Oxford Economics data. Oxford's global risk survey in January showed a recession probability of 7.2% — less than half of what it was in October 2023.

It can be nerve-wracking to watch your portfolio consistently drop during bear market periods. After all, nobody likes losing money; that goes against the whole purpose of investing. However, pulling your money out of the stock market during down periods can often do more harm than good in the long term.

Experts overwhelmingly say that the housing market isn't going to crash anytime soon. The last housing crash helped cause today's lack of supply, which is what's keeping prices from falling. Mortgage rates, however, are expected to fall this year. This will help make homeownership more affordable.