What Is The 4% Rule For Retirement Withdrawals? (2024)

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It’s a question on the minds of those in retirement or nearing retirement. How much of your nest egg can you spend each year without running out of money in retirement? In 1994, financial advisor William Bengen published a paper that answered this very question.

His paper—Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data—was published in the Journal of Financial Planning. Bengen found that retirees could safely spend about 4% of their retirement savings in the first year of retirement. In subsequent years, they could adjust the annual withdraws by the rate of inflation.

Following this simple formula, Bengen found that most retirement portfolios would last at least 30 years. In many cases the portfolios remained intact for 50 years or more. As simple as the 4% Rule is, many either misapply it or fail to appreciate some of the underlying assumptions in Bengen’s work.

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How the 4% Rule Works

The 4% rule is easy to follow. In the first year of retirement, you can withdraw up to 4% of your portfolio’s value. If you have $1 million saved for retirement, for example, you could spend $40,000 in the first year of retirement following the 4% rule.

Beginning in year two of retirement, you adjust this amount by the rate of inflation. If inflation were 2%, for example, you could withdraw $40,800 ($40,000 x 1.02). In the rare case where prices went down by say 2%, you would withdraw less than the previous year—$39,200 in our example ($40,000 x 0.98). In year three, you’d take the prior year’s allowed withdrawal, and then adjust that amount for inflation.

One common misconception is that the 4% rule dictates that retirees withdraw 4% of their portfolio’s value each year during retirement. The 4% applies only in year one of retirement. After that inflation dictates the amount withdrawn. The goal is to maintain the purchasing power of the 4% withdrawn in the first year of retirement.

How Bengen Tested the 4% Rule

Bengen looked at retirements beginning over a 50-year period from 1926 to 1976. He used actual market returns from 1926 through 1992. For years beginning in 1993, he assumed a 10.3% return on stocks and a 5.2% return on bonds. Withdrawals were made at the end of each year and the portfolio rebalanced annually.

From this he evaluated the longevity of the portfolio for up to 50 years. For example, he examined whether a portfolio of someone retiring in 1926 would last until 1976. For those retiring in 1976, he examined whether their portfolio would last until 2026.

While Bengen didn’t coin the phrase “the 4% rule,” it comes from the results he documented. What he found was that an initial withdrawal rate of 4% enabled most portfolios to last 50 years or more. And for those that fell short, they still lasted about 35 years or longer, more than enough for the majority of retirees.

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Deconstructing the 4% Rule

There are a number of underlying assumptions behind the 4% rule that are important to understand. The rule rests on precise asset allocation constraints, while fees, inflation and sequence of returns risk can lead to varying outcomes when following the 4% rule.

Asset Allocation

After testing various asset allocations, Bengen adopted the assumption that a retiree’s portfolio would be invested 50% in stocks () and 50% in bonds (intermediate term Treasuries). Using this asset allocation, he tested a range of first-year withdrawal rates:

• 3% withdrawal rate: All portfolios lasted 50 years.

• 4% withdrawal rate: Most portfolios lasted 50 years. Retirements started in 10 of the 50 years examined fell short of this mark, although they all lasted about 35 years or longer.

• 5% withdrawal rate: More than half of the portfolios were exhausted in less than 50 years, with the worst portfolios lasting no more than about 20 years.

• 6% withdrawal rate: Only seven portfolios lasted 50 years, with about 10 lasting fewer than 20 years.

When examining other asset allocations, Bengen found that holding too few stocks did more harm than holding too many. Portfolios with 0% to 25% allocated to equities saw their longevity severely compromised. He also found that the 50/50 allocation was optimal if the only goal was portfolio longevity.

If a retiree also wanted a secondary goal of wealth creation, Bengen advised increasing the stock allocation to as close to 75% as possible. For some retirees, a 50/50 portfolio is a level of risk that’s hard to stomach, making an allocation to stocks of 75% an even bigger risk hurdle. Nevertheless, the 4% rule as Bengen documented it requires a stock allocation of 50% to 75%.

The Impact of Fees

Bengen did not take into account the potential for investment management fees to reduce returns over the life of a portfolio. For those who manage their own investments in low-cost index funds, the minuscule fees they pay shouldn’t affect Bengen’s results. For those who pay an investment advisor, however, the 4% rule may not apply.

It’s not uncommon for an investment advisor to charge an annual fee of 1% of assets under management. If the advisor chooses actively managed mutual funds, which typically charge 75 basis points or more per year, total fees can approach or even exceed 2%. The impact of high investment management fees on portfolio returns would certainly compromise the 4% rule.

Sequence of Returns Risk

For the purposes of the 4% rule, sequence of returns riskis the possibility that adverse market returns in the early years of retirement could deplete a portfolio well before 30 years pass. Alternatively, sequence of returns can substantially increase a portfolio value if one happens to retire at the start of a bull market, leaving a retiree who follows the rule with a sizable balance even after 30 years.

The main challenge for retirees, whichever strategy they choose, is that you can’t predict the future performance of markets. A person retiring in January 1929 would have no idea that an historic stock market crash ushering in the Great Depression was just 10 months away. Likewise, a person retiring in January 2009 wouldn’t know that the market bottom was just three months away, followed by one of the longest bull markets in history.

The good news is that Bengen’s work considered the downside risk of sequence of returns. By analyzing actual market data beginning in 1926, his results considered retirees who entered retirement during or just before some very difficult markets, including:

• 1929 to 1931: Stocks down 61.0%

• 1973 to 1974: Stocks down 37.2%

• 1937 to 1941: Stocks down 33.3%

Notwithstanding these market declines, retirees starting retirement in or just before these years saw their portfolios survive for at least 30 years when following the 4% rule.

Inflation Impacts

Looking at the above bear markets, one might suspect that the period 1929 to 1931 would be the most challenging for retirees. It turns out not to be the case.

Using the 4% rule, those who retired in or near 1929 saw their portfolios survive a full 50 years. Those retiring near the 1937 to 1941 market didn’t fare as well, with the first three years seeing portfolio longevity fall to around 40 years. But it was those retiring in the years leading up to the 1973 to 1974 market that suffered the most. Why?

In a word—inflation. The period 1973 to 1974 saw prices rise by 22.1%. As a result, retirees had to substantially increase their annual withdrawals just to maintain the same standard of living. In contrast, 1929 to 1931 experienced deflation, with prices falling 15.8% during that period. While retirees experience significant declines in their portfolios, they could also reduce the amount of the annual withdrawals during this time and still maintain the purchasing power of their money.

Dynamic Withdrawal Rates

The 4% rule assumes a rigid withdrawal rate throughout retirement. Retirees take out 4% in the first year of retirement. After that, they adjust their annual withdrawals by the rate of inflation (or deflation). As Bengen noted in his paper, however, dynamic withdrawals give retirees significant flexibility.

For example, a retiree might reduce their annual withdrawal by 5% in the midst of a bear market or unexpectedly high inflation. While a 5% reduction may not seem significant, it can substantially improve a portfolio’s longevity.

Is the 4% Rule Still Valid?

In recent years, some have questioned whether the 4% rule remains valid. They point to low expected returns from stocks given high valuations. They also point to low yields on fixed income securities. While both concerns are real, the 4% rule has been proven reliable through a wide range of difficult markets.

As noted above, Bengen’s analysis of the 4% rule has stood up to the stock market crash of 1929, the Great Depression, World War II and the stagflation of the 1970s. While none of us knows the future, history strongly suggests that the 4% rule is a reliable approach to determining how much one can spend in retirement.

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What Is The 4% Rule For Retirement Withdrawals? (2024)

FAQs

What Is The 4% Rule For Retirement Withdrawals? ›

The 4% rule is a popular retirement withdrawal strategy that suggests retirees can safely withdraw the amount equal to 4 percent of their savings during the year they retire and then adjust for inflation each subsequent year for 30 years.

What is the 4% withdrawal rule example? ›

How the 4% Rule Works. The 4% rule is easy to follow. In the first year of retirement, you can withdraw up to 4% of your portfolio's value. If you have $1 million saved for retirement, for example, you could spend $40,000 in the first year of retirement following the 4% rule.

What is the safe withdrawal rate in 2023? ›

The 4% rule is a nice rule of thumb that clients should understand, but it shouldn't dictate a person's plan for retirement income, says Matt Sampson, a certified financial planner and senior investment advisor at Arnerich Massena in Portland, Ore.

Is $750 000 enough to retire on? ›

Many Americans target $1 million as their "dream nest egg" for retirement, but the truth is that in many states, even $750,000 can be more than enough. Although your longevity and your lifestyle can greatly impact how much you'll need for a successful retirement, the state in which you live can also play a big role.

Why the 4% rule no longer works for retirees? ›

The traditional 4% rule has served retirees well for decades but may no longer be relevant due to rising costs and increased market volatility. Retirees should consider using a rate closer to 3.3% withdrawal rate instead, as well as looking into other sources of income.

What is the safest retirement withdrawal rate? ›

The 4% rule is a popular rule of thumb used to estimate how long retirement savings will last. It states that withdrawing and spending 4% of total portfolio value yearly should be enough to sustain an individual's lifestyle without running out of money.

Which is the biggest expense for most retirees? ›

Housing. Housing expenses—which include mortgage, rent, property tax, insurance, maintenance and repair costs—remained the largest expense for retirees.

What are the new 401k withdrawal rules for 2023? ›

Also included in the bill are massive changes to the original 50% penalty for not taking Required Minimum Distributions on time: The hefty 50% penalty for not taking RMDs will drop to 25% in 2023. The penalty drops to 10% if you take the required amount by the end of the second year that it was due.

How long will a 3% withdrawal rate last? ›

A 3 percent withdrawal rate would equal 33.3 years, while a 2 percent withdrawal rate would equal a portfolio that would last 50 years. So you can figure out your own safe withdrawal rate depending on how long you want your assets to last.

Is 5% a safe withdrawal rate? ›

If your intention is to preserve your assets to pass them down to your children or other beneficiaries in the future, withdrawing 5% each year will ensure a secure retirement so long as your nest egg is large enough to allow it.

Is $3000 a month good to retire? ›

If you have a low living cost and can supplement your income with a part-time job or a generous pension, then retiring on $3,000 a month is certainly possible.

What is a good monthly retirement income? ›

According to data from the BLS, average incomes in 2021 after taxes were as follows for older households: 65-74 years: $59,872 per year or $4,989 per month. 75 and older: $43,217 per year or $3,601 per month.

How many years will $500 000 last in retirement? ›

According to the 4% rule, if you retire with $500,000 in assets, you should be able to take $20,000/ yr for a 30-year or longer. Additionally, putting the money in an annuity will offer a guaranteed annual income of $24,688 to those retiring at 55.

What are the biggest retirement mistakes retirees must avoid? ›

35 Retirement Planning Mistakes That Waste Your Money
  • Having No Retirement Plan. ...
  • Not Knowing How Much You Need To Retire. ...
  • Not Increasing the Amount You Save After a Pay Increase. ...
  • Not Taking Your Employer's 401(k) Match. ...
  • Having Incorrect Beneficiary Designations. ...
  • Paying High Retirement Account Fees.
Apr 24, 2023

How many people have $1000000 in savings? ›

In fact, statistically, around 10% of retirees have $1 million or more in savings.

What is the biggest mistake most people make in regards to retirement? ›

Putting Off Saving for Retirement

The single biggest financial regret of Americans surveyed by Bankrate was waiting too long to start saving for retirement.

What is the best order to withdraw money in retirement? ›

Traditionally, tax professionals suggest withdrawing first from taxable accounts, then tax-deferred accounts, and finally Roth accounts where withdrawals are tax free. The goal is to allow tax-deferred assets the opportunity to grow over more time.

What is the best way to withdraw money from retirement accounts? ›

The Best Way to Withdraw From Your Retirement Accounts
  1. Start With Your Investment Income. ...
  2. Don't Automatically Claim Social Security Benefits at 62. ...
  3. Delay Withdrawing From Your 401(k) and IRA Until RMDs Kick In. ...
  4. Don't Tap into Your Roth Before Exhausting Other Options.
May 17, 2023

What is a safe withdrawal rate at 70 years old? ›

What's the bottom line? Those who choose to retire at age 70 or 75 might consider a 5 percent initial withdrawal rate, but a 6 percent rate would be pushing the odds. A 7 percent rate would be foolish. There are larger items that come well before x-dividend dates if you are seeking portfolio efficiency.

What is the average Social Security check? ›

According to the Social Security Administration (SSA), the average monthly retirement benefit for Security Security recipients is $1,781.63 as of February. Several factors can drag that average up or down, but you have the most control over the biggest variable of all — the age that you decide to cash in.

How much does the average retired person live on per month? ›

People ages 65 and older had an average income of $55,335 in 2021. Average annual expenses for people ages 65 and older totaled $52,141 in 2021. 48% of retirees surveyed reported spending less than $2,000 a month in 2022. 1 in 3 retirees reported spending between $2,000 and $3,999 per month.

How much does the average retired person live on per year? ›

Average Retirement Income in 2021

According to the United States Census Bureau, the median annual income for individuals ages 65 and older is $47,620, while the mean annual income is $75,254.

At what age is 401k withdrawal tax free? ›

The IRS allows penalty-free withdrawals from retirement accounts after age 59½ and requires withdrawals after age 72. (These are called required minimum distributions, or RMDs). There are some exceptions to these rules for 401(k) plans and other qualified plans.

Will my employer know if I take a 401k withdrawal? ›

The short answer is yes — if you make a 401(k) withdrawal, your employer will know. This is because your employer is responsible for all aspects of offering your 401(k) plan, including hiring the record keeper.

How many times can I withdraw from my 401k in a year? ›

Under the new Secure 2.0 Act, Section 115 allows for one emergency distribution per year from a tax-preferred retirement account (excluding exceptions). For distributions made after December 31, 2023, you can withdraw up to $1,000, with the ability to repay the amount within three years.

Is 4% a safe withdrawal rate? ›

The 4% rule is a popular retirement withdrawal strategy that suggests retirees can safely withdraw the amount equal to 4 percent of their savings during the year they retire and then adjust for inflation each subsequent year for 30 years.

How much money is too much to withdraw? ›

That said, cash withdrawals are subject to the same reporting limits as all transactions. If you withdraw $10,000 or more, federal law requires the bank to report it to the IRS in an effort to prevent money laundering and tax evasion. Few, if any, banks set withdrawal limits on a savings account.

How much cash is too much to withdraw? ›

Thanks to the Bank Secrecy Act, financial institutions are required to report withdrawals of $10,000 or more to the federal government. Banks are also trained to look for customers who may be trying to skirt the $10,000 threshold.

How long will $1 million last in retirement? ›

A recent analysis determined that a $1 million retirement nest egg may only last about 20 years depending on what state you live in. Based on this, if you retire at age 65 and live until you turn 84, $1 million will probably be enough retirement savings for you.

How long will $4 million last in retirement? ›

Now, 4% of $4 million is $160,000, so as long as you expect your retirement to last for about 30 years and that amount sounds like enough-or more than enough-for you, you're in a good place.

What is the 7% rule for retirement? ›

What is the 7 percent rule? The 7 percent rule is a retirement planning guideline that suggests you can comfortably withdraw 7 percent of your retirement savings annually without running out of money.

What is the average 401k balance for a 65 year old? ›

Average and median 401(k) balance by age
AgeAverage Account BalanceMedian Account Balance
35-44$97,020$36,117
45-54$179,200$61,530
55-64$256,244$89,716
65+$279,997$87,725
2 more rows
Jan 20, 2023

How do I get the $16728 Social Security bonus? ›

To acquire the full amount, you need to maximize your working life and begin collecting your check until age 70. Another way to maximize your check is by asking for a raise every two or three years. Moving companies throughout your career is another way to prove your worth, and generate more money.

Is $1,500 a month enough to retire on? ›

That means that many will need to rely on Social Security payments—which, in 2021, averages $1,544 a month. That's not a lot, but don't worry. There are plenty of places in the United States—and abroad—where you can live comfortably on $1,500 a month or less.

What is the average Social Security check at age 66? ›

At Age 66-67

In 2022, the average Social Security check was around $1,720 for a 66-year-old and $1,845 for a 67-year-old. That's $20,640 to $22,140 a year.

Is $4000 a month enough to retire on? ›

First, let's look at some statistics to establish a baseline for what a solid retirement looks like: Average monthly retirement income in 2021 for retirees 65 and older was about $4,000 a month, or $48,000 a year; this is a slight decrease from 2020, when it was about $49,000.

Can you retire with 500k plus Social Security? ›

Yes, retiring at 55 with $500,000 is feasible. An annuity can offer a lifetime guaranteed income of $24,688 per year or an initial $21,000 that increases over time to offset inflation. At 62, Social Security Benefits augment this income. Both options continue payouts even if the annuity depletes.

Can you retire with 300k and Social Security? ›

If you earned around $50,000 per year before retirement, the odds are good that a $300,000 retirement account and Social Security benefits will allow you to continue enjoying your same lifestyle. By age 55 the median American household has about $120,000 saved for retirement, and about $212,500 in net worth.

How much Social Security will I get if I make $200000 a year? ›

That works out to $3,538 in monthly Social Security benefits, after adding on delayed-retirement credits worth an extra 32%. You can see that Social Security doesn't replace a huge portion of earnings, but it's still a significant contribution.

What is the number 1 retirement mistake? ›

Among the biggest mistakes retirees make is not adjusting their expenses to their new budget in retirement. Those who have worked for many years need to realize that dining out, clothing and entertainment expenses should be reduced because they are no longer earning the same amount of money as they were while working.

What is the #1 regret of retirees? ›

Retirees' biggest regret is that 'they did not start saving early enough': Expert. Allspring Global Investments Head of Retirement Nate Miles breaks down the macro challenges impacting retirees, retirement savings trends, auto-enrolling into plans, and the different sentiments between men and women retirees.

What makes the happiest retirees? ›

The happiest retirees know very well how to travel, play and explore, and they wholeheartedly engage in three or more hobbies on a regular basis, says Moss. “Curiosity may have killed the cat, but a lack of curiosity kills the happy retiree,” he says. Keep in mind, it doesn't really matter what your interests are.

Can I live off interest on a million dollars? ›

Once you have $1 million in assets, you can look seriously at living entirely off the returns of a portfolio. After all, the S&P 500 alone averages 10% returns per year. Setting aside taxes and down-year investment portfolio management, a $1 million index fund could provide $100,000 annually.

How many Americans have $2 million in savings? ›

As of the end of 2020, there were nearly 22 million people in the US who had a net worth of $2 million or more.

How many Americans have $1 million in bank? ›

More than 8% of adults in the U.S. have enough assets to fit the definition, according to the Global Wealth Report 2020 by Credit Suisse. That works out to more than 20 million Americans.

What are some money moves retirees almost never regret? ›

Diversifying Investment Vehicles

Most retirees never regret planning ahead for retirement to meet their goals and investing early to reap the benefits of compound interest. Another money move retirees seldom regret is diversifying their savings and investment vehicles.

What is the hardest part of retiring? ›

Struggling to “switch off” from work mode and relax, especially in the early weeks or months of retirement. Feeling anxious at having more time on your hands, but less money to spend. Finding it difficult to fill the extra hours you now have with meaningful activity.

What not to do after retirement? ›

10 Things You Should Not Do When Retiring
  • Ignoring the implication of the process. ...
  • Not having an updated financial plan. ...
  • Tapping into your 401(k) or other retirement accounts early. ...
  • Accruing debt. ...
  • Making risky investments without diversifying. ...
  • Don't neglect your estate planning. ...
  • Don't live a sedentary life.
Dec 27, 2022

What is an example of withdrawal in economics? ›

The examples of withdrawal (which is a variable that leaks out from the circular flow of income) are taxes, imports and savings.

What is the 4 safe withdrawal rate study? ›

The Trinity Study is the source of the 4% Rule. This rule states that if you only withdraw 4% of your initial portfolio yearly, you can sustain your lifestyle for a very long period. And your withdrawal is adjusted for inflation every year.

What is an example of withdrawal in accounting? ›

For example, if the owner withdraws $1,000 from the company for personal use, a debit of $1,000 is entered to "Owner Withdrawals," and a credit of $1,000 is entered to "Cash." If this is the only withdrawal made by the owner so far during the fiscal year, the balance sheet has a line showing the owner capital and a ...

Does the 4% rule work for early retirement? ›

Aiming for a lower withdrawal rate means you'll need to save more money if you want to fund the same lifestyle. Under the 4% rule, multiplying your income by 25 really means dividing it by 0.04, so if you want to live off $40,000 in retirement, you'll need $1 million.

Why do banks ask why you are withdrawing money? ›

banks are required to report any suspicious activity, including large deposits, to the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN). Banks may ask why you're withdrawing money to prevent illegal activity. The main concern with large withdrawals is funding terrorists, money laundering, and other criminal activity.

How much money can you withdraw from a bank without it being reported? ›

If you withdraw $10,000 or more, federal law requires the bank to report it to the IRS in an effort to prevent money laundering and tax evasion. Few, if any, banks set withdrawal limits on a savings account.

What is an example of withdrawal strategy? ›

Examples of withdrawal strategy options

Let's say you want your money to last 30 years. You might think about using a strategy such as the 4% rule. With this approach, you'd plan to take 4% from your accounts in your first year of retirement, then adjust the amount for inflation each of the following years.

What is the best withdrawal rate? ›

The 4% rule is a guideline used as a safe withdrawal rate, particularly in early retirement, to help prevent retirees from running out of money.

How many withdrawals look bad? ›

Withdrawing from one or two classes generally won't have too much of an impact on your GPA. However, if you withdraw from too many classes, or if they're all high-level courses, you could be in trouble.

What is the formula for withdrawal rate? ›

(Outflows – Inflows) ÷ Assets

When planning your retirement income, calculating a withdrawal rate is just the start. Understanding the impact of that withdrawal rate and how it changes over time is essential to your financial security.

What are the three forms of withdraw? ›

withdraw
  • ,
  • he / she / it withdraws. ,
  • past simple withdrew. ,
  • past participle withdrawn. ,
  • -ing form withdrawing. ,

Is withdrawal an income or expense? ›

The withdrawal is not an expense for the business, but rather a reduction of equity. A withdrawal can negatively impact the liquidity of a business, since cash is being extracted from the firm.

Do withdrawals affect net income? ›

Since only balance sheet accounts are involved (cash and owner's equity), owner withdrawals do not affect net income.

How long will a 4 withdrawal rate last? ›

The 4% rule is a popular retirement withdrawal strategy that suggests retirees can safely withdraw the amount equal to 4 percent of their savings during the year they retire and then adjust for inflation each subsequent year for 30 years.

How long will 500k last in retirement? ›

If you retire with $500k in assets, the 4% rule says that you should be able to withdraw $20,000 per year for a 30-year (or longer) retirement. So, if you retire at 60, the money should ideally last through age 90. If 4% sounds too low to you, remember that you'll take an income that increases with inflation.

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