Did you know that Waymo was trying to turn itself into a sensor OEM, selling its custom-designed sensor sets to other autonomous vehicle companies? No, neither did I. It appears almost no one noticed, actually, hence it was unsurprising when the company accepted its failure and pulled the plug on that bad idea.
Waymo is a software company that uses sensors, not an electronics manufacturing company. It has been deeply confused about what it is since it was formed as a Google X self-driving car initiative in 2009. Basically, a purely virtual company was trying to do something very, very physical and real, with real human split-second safety requirements.
The Google X guys were well out of their corporate field of comfort when they started, and thought it was all a mental problem. I wrote about this in 2015, having enough of a background in robotics and AI to understand the broad strokes of what they and Tesla were doing, and to have an informed opinion that Tesla’s approach was better.
Their cute little bubble cars were the epitome of the software-will-do-everything mindset, and the nipple on top was lidar, initially the $80,000 variety.
Over time, as Tesla racked up billions of real-world miles with its highly desireable, indestructible, test platforms that test drivers spent up to $140,000 to drive for them, Waymo was falling further and further behind. Tesla got it right on lidar too, something else I assessed and published on in 2016.
Meanwhile, Waymo fell further and further behind, with each mile its cars were driven requiring massively detailed, accurate, and up-to-date computer models in order for them to drive down a street.
Then the company got into the sensor manufacturing business, maybe because it never had anywhere near enough volume for OEMs to be interested in cutting it deals. Waymo started bike-shedding, just as BMW did with its never-to-be-used again brand new body materials for the i3 and i8, and designed its own sensors from scratch. Yeah, that’s the ticket.
And then they started thinking that their sensors were really awesome, and they could compete with massive OEMs that make sensors cheaply and reliably. More non-real-world thinking.
The company started trying to sell its road-worthy sensors to off-road farming applications and the like, but not being a manufacturing company, and not having anything particularly better than what was available much more cheaply, couldn’t get anyone to buy its non-real-world product.
Waymo is still limping along, but Google X pulling the plug on it was the end of large cash infusions from Brin and Page. Like another Google X head-scratcher, Makani airborne wind power, it’s been heading downhill to its eventual dissolution and fire sale of assets since.
Meanwhile, Tesla’s solution continues to be so much better than any other company’s that it gets used a lot every day everywhere there are Teslas. And they’ve recently made it even simpler, cutting it down to just visual cameras, albeit ones that can see in every direction, don’t blink, and don’t get distracted, making them far superior to human eyes. In talking with my visual machine learning expert friends, sensor fusion is a real hassle, so there’s a strong argument for this in terms of ‘simplifying’ probably the second most widely used neural net technology in the world. (Apple’s iPhone face recognition security has the edge in sheer numbers, and I can’t think of anything else in the range of millions, but inform me in the comments if I’ve forgotten something).
As the not-so-humorous meme goes these days:
With the dramatically higher death rate in 2020, overall fatalities increased to 38,680 from 36,096 in 2019, even though miles driven decreased by 13.2% due to the pandemichttps://t.co/Ic8E6Vn3vf
— Not_an_Analyst (@facts_tesla) August 19, 2021
Autopilot is vastly safer than the alternative. Sandy Munro — automotive journalist, test driver, trusted source of reality, and someone who opted for a Tesla with self-driving — made it really clear recently how far behind everyone else was.
Every time there’s a bake-off comparison between Tesla and any other self-driving product, Tesla always wins, typically by miles.
So yeah, Waymo was formed on incorrect premises, used the wrong approaches, flailed, and is failing. Selling sensors that were too expensive so no one bought any was par for the course.
is a member of the Advisory Boards of electric aviation startup FLIMAX, Chief Strategist at TFIE Strategy and co-founder of distnc technologies. He spends his time projecting scenarios for decarbonization 40-80 years into the future, and assisting executives, Boards and investors to pick wisely today. Whether it's refueling aviation, grid storage, vehicle-to-grid, or hydrogen demand, his work is based on fundamentals of physics, economics and human nature, and informed by the decarbonization requirements and innovations of multiple domains. His leadership positions in North America, Asia and Latin America enhanced his global point of view. He publishes regularly in multiple outlets on innovation, business, technology and policy.He is available for Board, strategy advisor and speaking engagements.
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FAQs
The move to stop selling lidars comes after the departure of CEO John Krafcik and some other executives, which had fueled questions about whether Waymo would rethink its strategy after failing to generate significant revenue for over a decade.
What is the mission statement of Waymo? ›
Waymo's mission is to make it safe and easy for people and things to get where they're going. The Waymo Driver can improve the world's access to mobility while saving thousands of lives now lost to traffic crashes.
How many sensors does a Waymo car have? ›
Waymo's system has three lidar sensors: short range, midrange and high range. Since these sensors emit light, they can work during the day or night.
What is one of the sensors used by the Waymo car while driving called? ›
The following outlines how Google Waymo vehicles work: The driver (or passenger) sets a destination. The car's software calculates a route. A rotating, roof-mounted Lidar sensor monitors a 60-meter range around the car and creates a dynamic three-dimensional (3D) map of the car's current environment.
Why Elon won't use LiDAR? ›
He argues that LiDAR is too expensive and that mapping the world and keeping it up-to-date are too costly. Instead, Tesla focuses on vision-based systems, which he believes are more effective and cost-efficient.
What is the problem with LiDAR for autonomous vehicles? ›
LiDAR has difficulties in bad weather conditions.
Since LiDAR uses visible lasers in order to measure distance, LiDAR is unable to work well in bad weather conditions, such as heavy rain, snow, and fog -- whereas radar still works in such conditions. LiDAR is essentially blind in bad weather.
Is Waymo really driverless? ›
Waymo One is our public, fully autonomous ride-hailing service. Riders can use the Waymo One app to hail one of our autonomously driven vehicles (with no human driver in the front seat!) 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.
Is Waymo safer than human? ›
In another, as a light turned yellow, another car cut in front of them and then braked hard. Human driven cars have a police-reported crash about every 500,000 miles so this is in line with that number, but with blame on the other vehicles, the Waymo's record surpasses human performance.
How much does it cost to ride Waymo? ›
To start with, the rides themselves will be free as the company does not yet have approval to charge fares. The pilot allows Waymo to offer driverless passenger service throughout San Francisco and portions of Daly City, as well as in parts of Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Mountain View, Palo Alto and Sunnyvale.
How much does a Waymo sensor cost? ›
Waymo first began manufacturing its own lidar sensors in early 2017 as a way to dramatically reduce the costs of its autonomous vehicle business. At the time, the company said that by making its own sensors, it could lower the unit price from $75,000 for an off-the-shelf lidar sensor to just $7,500.
Price at a price similar to the all-in cost of private car use, around 50 cents/mile.
What cars use Waymo? ›
Waymo is now running a robotaxi service in two states, but the vehicles for those services are retrofitted commercial cars. The company rolls around in either the "4th-gen" Waymo vehicles, built on the Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid, or the "5th-gen" driver, built on the Jaguar I-Pace.
What is the most important sensor in a car? ›
Mass Air Flow Sensor
The Mass airflow sensor or MAF is one of the most crucial sensors used in automobiles. The MAF sensor is located near the air filter and monitors how much air is flowing into the engine.
How do Waymo sensors work? ›
Waymo's LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) system works day and night by beaming out millions of laser pulses per second—in 360 degrees—and measuring how long it takes to reflect off a surface and return to the vehicle.
What are the three types of sensors in autonomous vehicles? ›
The majority of today's automotive manufacturers most commonly use the following three types of sensors in autonomous vehicles: cameras, radars, and lidars.
Did Elon Musk turn off Starlink over Ukraine? ›
Alright, here's what's on tap for the day: SpaceX founder Elon Musk switches off Starlink for Ukraine's drones, Congress takes another stab at reining in Joe Biden's presidential war powers, and London debates whether to send fighter jets to Ukraine.
Did China ask Elon Musk not to sell Starlink within the country? ›
Elon Musk told the FT that Beijing doesn't want him to sell his Starlink satellite internet service in China. In this picture, Musk speaks about Starlink at Mobile World Congress in June 2021.
Did Musk shut down Starlink? ›
Elon Musk said Sunday that SpaceX's satellite internet service Starlink, which provides crucial telecommunication services in Ukraine, would not be shut off regardless of whether the company receives funding from the US Defense Department.
Who has the best LiDAR technology? ›
Top 6 Companies Leading the Global Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) Market. Faro Technologies, Inc., Jabil Inc., Trimble Inc., Velodyne Lidar, Inc., Innoviz Technologies Ltd., and Leica Geosystems AG, among others, are key players in the global Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) Market.
Is there a better technology than LiDAR? ›
Radar systems, on the other hand, have a longer range and are better at detecting objects that are farther away. LiDAR is also more expensive and requires a clear line of sight, while radar can detect objects through fog, rain, and other obstacles.
The average price of vehicle-mounted semi-solid LiDAR is about $1,000.
How many accidents has Waymo had? ›
Over that 1 million miles, Waymo's vehicles were involved in only two crashes that met the criteria for inclusion in the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's database for car crashes, called the Crash Investigation Sampling System (CISS).
How many miles does Waymo drive in simulation? ›
Simulation. We've driven more than 20 billion miles in simulation to help identify the most challenging situations our vehicles will encounter on public roads. We can either replay and tweak real world miles or build completely new virtual scenarios, for our autonomous driving software to practice again and again.
Are there any fully driverless cars? ›
There is no fully autonomous vehicle for sale today, but some automakers are advancing the field. Over the past few years, a few cars have gone on sale with driver assistance features that take much of the burden off the driver. These systems alleviate driver fatigue by assisting with steering and acceleration.
How many Waymo cars are on the road? ›
Waymo's 25,000 virtual self-driving cars travel 8 million miles per day.
Will self-driving cars ever be safe? ›
Autonomous vehicles are orders of magnitude safer in preventing many types of accidents that have to do with human driver error — for instance, simply rear-ending another vehicle because the driver wasn't paying attention. These types of accidents will practically never happen with autonomous cars.
How safe is autonomous driving? ›
Many experts say that self-driving cars can be trained to be safer than human drivers. With the sensors and cameras monitoring and guiding, these cars can not only sense their environment but also can anticipate what's coming up ahead, which humans are not capable of.
How much did Uber pay Waymo? ›
Uber and Waymo have settled their courtroom drama over trade secrets, with Uber agreeing not to use Waymo's technology and paying out a 0.34 percent equity stake, worth roughly $245 million.
Can I buy a Waymo car? ›
Self-Driving Taxis Are Impressive, but You Can't Buy One
Companies like Waymo and Cruise are currently in the process of developing self-driving taxi cabs that can pick up and drop off passengers and navigate complex driving tasks all without a human driver.
Will Waymo ever sell cars? ›
Google has made it clear that it has no plans to build cars itself. Waymo is a self-driving technology company; it does not intend to manufacture and sell its own line of vehicles.
Having a fleet gathering more data is more important than having more sensors. Having to process LIDAR and radar produces a lot of bloat in the code and data pipelines. He predicts other companies will also drop these sensors in time. Mapping the world and keeping it up to date is much too expensive.
Why did Samsung remove LiDAR? ›
There were a few Android devices that had LiDAR, but the use of LiDAR was discontinued due to the large cost of LiDAR in smartphones, and the lack of response from its users. Samsung used to use rear-facing LiDAR technology in some of its phones, like the Galaxy S10 5G, S20+, S20, and SOCELL Vizion 33D models.
What is happening to LiDAR stocks? ›
The majority of lidar stocks were taken public by special-purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, from late 2020 to early 2022. But lidar stocks have been poor performers as they are in an emerging market with sales growth still to come. As a result, a shakeout in the market is starting to take place.
Does Waymo use LiDAR? ›
At Waymo, lidar is core to our sensor suite, with its ability to perceive objects and other road users with industry-leading resolution, up to hundreds of meters away, across a range of conditions.
Did Elon Musk say anyone relying on LiDAR is doomed? ›
Tesla CEO Elon Musk famously hates lidar, the radar-like laser-powered sensing technology for autonomous vehicles, including self-driving cars. At Tesla's first-ever Autonomy Day in April 2019, Musk famously said that lidar is a “fool's errand” and that anyone relying on it is “doomed.”
What technology will replace LiDAR? ›
It is estimated that it might take 3 years or even longer to establish a standardized and mass-produced product. What 4D imaging radar might replace in the future should be traditional millimeter-wave radar, instead of LiDAR.
What will replace LiDAR? ›
Future self-driving vehicles will face complex road scenarios and 4D imaging radar sensor modules in the 77 GHz band will be indispensable. Compared with lidar, 4D imaging radar is less susceptible to inclement weather conditions and is more in line with safety requirements for self-driving vehicles.
Is iPhone the only phone with LiDAR? ›
Introduced in 2020, the LiDAR scanner is available on the iPhone 12 Pro and Pro Max, the iPhone 13 Pro and Pro Max, and the iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max as well as the 2020, 2021, and 2022 11-inch iPad Pro and 12.9-inch iPad Pro models.
What can LiDAR not detect? ›
NOT able to 'see through' trees – LIDAR sees around trees, not through them. Fully closed canopies (rain forests) cannot be penetrated. NOT a Substitute for Photography – For MOST users, LIDAR intensity images are NOT viable replacements for conventional or digital imagery.
Who is the No 1 LiDAR company in the world? ›
1. Faro Technologies Inc
| Establishment: | 1981 |
|---|
| Headquarters: | Florida, the United States |
| Website: | https://www.faro.com/en |
Apr 24, 2023
Top 6 Companies Leading the Global Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) Market. Faro Technologies, Inc., Jabil Inc., Trimble Inc., Velodyne Lidar, Inc., Innoviz Technologies Ltd., and Leica Geosystems AG, among others, are key players in the global Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) Market.
Who is Apple's LiDAR supplier? ›
The self-driving system apparently heavily relies on LiDAR sensors, which Apple may source from Chinese supplier Wenmao – a supplier that already provides LiDAR scanners for the iPhone and iPad Pro.
Does Elon Musk use lidar? ›
However, Musk is committing to radar, not LIDAR, as: "Autopilot version 8, though, will do something similar – and, indeed, Musk argues better – to LIDAR only with far more affordable radar." Regardless of cost, Musk elaborates on LIDAR's limitations: "We do not envisage using LIDAR...
Is Toyota using lidar? ›
RoboSense, a provider of Smart LiDAR Sensor Systems, has officially announced its partnership with Toyota on large-scale production with nominated orders for multiple models. RoboSense has been officially integrated into Toyota's supply chain system.
