US Prime Rate Forecast (2024)

FAQs

US Prime Rate Forecast? ›

Basic Info. US Prime Rate Forecast is at 5.76%, compared to 5.76% last quarter and 5.76% last year. This is lower than the long term average of 5.82%.

Interest rates have held steady since July 2023.

The Fed raised the rate 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023 to combat ongoing inflation. After its December 2023 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) predicted making three quarter-point cuts by the end of 2024 to lower the federal funds rate to 4.6%.

Projected Interest Rates in the Next Five Years

ING's interest rate predictions indicate 2024 rates starting at 4%, with subsequent cuts to 3.75% in the second quarter. Then, 3.5% in the third, and 3.25% in the final quarter of 2024. In 2025, ING predicts a further decline to 3%.

In its March Mortgage Finance Forecast, the Mortgage Bankers Association predicts that mortgage rates will fall from 6.8% in the first quarter of 2024 to 6.1% by the fourth quarter. The industry group expects rates will fall below the 6% threshold in the first quarter of 2025.

The median estimate for the fed-funds rate target range at the end of 2025 moved to 3.75% to 4%, from 3.5% to 3.75% in December. For the end of 2026, the median dot now shows a target range of 3% to 3.25%, versus 2.75% to 3% three months ago.

Here's when the Fed is likely to start cutting interest rates, according to investment strategists. The U.S. Federal Reserve will likely cut interest rates by a cumulative 0.75 percentage points to 1 point in 2024, investment strategists said Wednesday.

In summary, it is unlikely that mortgage rates in the US will ever reach 3% again, at least not in the foreseeable future. This is due to a combination of factors, including: Higher Inflation: Inflation is currently at a 40-year high in the US, and the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates to combat it.

The nation's top economists say the Fed is most likely to keep interest rates higher than 2.5 percent — often considered the “goldilocks,” not-too-tight, not-too-loose level for its benchmark federal funds rate — until the end of 2026, Bankrate's quarterly economists' poll found.

The 10-year treasury constant maturity rate in the U.S. is forecast to decline by 0.8 percent by 2026, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall by 1.6 percent. From seven percent in the third quarter of 2023, the average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to reach 5.4 percent in 2026.

Here's where three experts predict mortgage rates are heading: Around 6% or below by Q1 2025: "Rates hit 8% towards the end of last year, and right now we are seeing rates closer to 6.875%," says Haymore. "By the first quarter of 2025, mortgage rates could potentially fall below the 6% threshold, or maybe even lower."

How high could interest rates go in 2025? ›

According to their predictions based on recent data, Trading Economics anticipates the interest rate to descend to 4.25% in 2024 and 3.25% in 2025. Their forecast suggests that the Fed may need to reduce interest rates in response to a slowdown in economic growth and a decline in inflation.

The 30-year mortgage rate will end 2024 at 6.4%, up from 5.9% in the previous forecast. The average mortgage rate will remain at 6.7% in Q2. National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun. “The budget deficit remains high, and the various inflation metrics remain above the comfort level.

Even in 2026 — when, the Fed hopes, inflation will have been fully stamped out and economic growth will have settled back into its longer-run trend — policymakers expect rates to remain well above the levels that prevailed before the pandemic. In other words, higher rates may be here to stay for years.

“One would want to be guessing that Treasury bill rates will be averaging well above 3% through the rest of this decade,” said Summers, a Harvard University professor and paid contributor to Bloomberg TV. Last year, the White House projection for bill rates in 2030 was 2.4%.

"CD rates will most likely drop and drop substantially in 2024," says Robert Johnson, professor of finance at Heider College of Business at Creighton University. "The biggest reason is the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year."

The current Bank of America, N.A. prime rate is 8.50% (rate effective as of July 27, 2023). The prime rate is set by Bank of America based on various factors, including the bank's costs and desired return, general economic conditions and other factors, and is used as a reference point for pricing some loans.

That means the mortgage rates will likely be in the 6% to 7% range for most of the year.” Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). MBA's baseline forecast is for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to end 2024 at 6.1% and reach 5.5% at the end of 2025 as Treasury rates decline and the spread narrows.

Think about your cost structure and debt load carefully for 2024. The prime rate today is 8.5%. The Fed signaling cuts equivalent to 75 basis points would put prime between 7.5% and 7.75%.

target range for the fed funds rate at 5.25% - 5.50%. interest rates will be on May 1, 2024. The U.S. Prime Rate is a commonly used, short-term interest rate in the banking system of the United States. All types of American lending institutions (traditional banks, credit unions, thrifts, etc.)

Financial markets are currently predicting the first cut in interest rates will be in June 2024, falling to around 3% by the end of 2025, according to the latest forecasts from Capital Economics. As a general rule: if interest rates fall, the mortgage rate forecast would be for mortgage rates to fall too.