US companies poised to prop up EPS with share buybacks in 2023 (2024)

Share buybacks will be an increasingly important tool for boosting earnings per share in 2023 as U.S. public companies use cash to reduce share count rather than grow their businesses.

More than one in five S&P 500 companies — 20.6% — increased their earnings per share by at least 4% year over year in the third quarter of 2022 by reducing their share count, the highest level since 2019, according to data from S&P Dow Jones Indices. S&P 500 companies bought $1 trillion worth of their own shares in the year ending in June, a record total for a 12-month period.

US companies poised to prop up EPS with share buybacks in 2023 (1)

Dow Jones Indices expects the pace of buybacks to have slowed in the third quarter to $214.7 billion — down from $234.6 billion a year earlier — but a rebound is expected in the fourth quarter as companies race to beat a new 1% tax on buybacks that comes into force in 2023. The U.S. could also enter a recession in the fourth quarter, and the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate-hike push is making borrowing more expensive as inflation continues to soar.

"The alternatives of spending cash on growth capital expenditures or M&A look less attractive against a weak economic backdrop," said Michael Russell, U.S. equities portfolio manager at Federated Hermes Ltd.

Markets fall

Rising interest rates have hammered stock prices. The S&P 500 is down 20.8% in 2022 and, while that level is up 7% from its mid-October low, lingering inflation continues to add to cost pressures for companies and places a strain on consumers' spending power, suggesting further pressure on stocks.

"Buybacks have the potential to support share prices through reducing the share count and provide a signal to investors that management feel the share price is undervalued," Russell said.

US companies poised to prop up EPS with share buybacks in 2023 (2)

Cash levels have been falling relative to liabilities, yet earnings have not been as bad as some had feared. With the exception of Meta Platforms Inc., the bigger players in the buyback market are still well-positioned to repurchase shares.

"The money is still there and the cash flow is still there" said Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "2023 looks like [spending on buybacks] is going to be there, depending on the economy."

Tech and energy likely to remain strong

Buybacks have been increasingly important for corporate earnings per share as the value of stocks has fallen. The percentage of S&P 500 companies improving their EPS by more than 4% in a quarter through share reduction has grown from a low of 5.4% in the second quarter of 2021.

Dow Jones Indices projects the rate to remain above 20% in the fourth quarter. Strategies will differ by sector.

US companies poised to prop up EPS with share buybacks in 2023 (3)

Financials are traditionally a strong source of buybacks, but they pulled back in the second quarter with total buybacks of $21.2 billion, down from $54.7 billion in the first quarter. In the third quarter, JPMorgan Chase & Co., typically one of the main proponents of share repurchases, revealed it did not buy back any shares at all.

"A lot of them are concerned. They're protecting their dividends by not doing buybacks," Silverblatt said.

By contrast, the highly cash-generative tech sector is likely to continue to buy shares through the fourth quarter and into 2023. Apple Inc. is the biggest purveyor of buybacks and has been for a decade, spending $557.39 billion in the 10 years up to the second quarter of 2022, more than the total market capitalization of 494 of the S&P 500 companies.

But the story is not universal.

"It's no secret that Meta is in trouble," said Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. "As advertising demand slows dramatically, costs mount up and users are lured away by the Pied Piper tunes of TikTok."

Meta bought back $6.24 billion in shares in the second quarter and reported another $6.55 billion in repurchases in the third quarter. That is a slower pace than the $53.27 billion purchased in the 12 months through June. Meta is unlikely to continue purchasing shares at higher volumes as the company announced it was laying off 11,000 of its 87,000-strong worldwide workforce, Silverblatt with Dow Jones Indices said.

By contrast, energy companies are luxuriating in cash as high oil and gas prices have helped boost profits. Exxon Mobil Corp. was the sixth-largest issuer of share buybacks in the second quarter at $3.92 billion, this was up from $0 a year earlier. The energy sector doubled from 3% of total buybacks to 6.1% in that time.

1% tax

The introduction of a 1% tax on buybacks in 2023 has pushed many companies to accelerate buybacks into the fourth quarter to avoid the charge. October was a busy month for shares repurchased, according to Dow Jones Indices.

However, the scale of the tax is unlikely to be enough to put off most.

"The 1% tax that we're going to have next year is not really that much. It's less than half a percentage point on the earnings," Silverblatt said. "The bottom line is it's no more than a trading error on buybacks. A half a percent is 'what time did I buy it?'"

US companies poised to prop up EPS with share buybacks in 2023 (2024)

FAQs

US companies poised to prop up EPS with share buybacks in 2023? ›

The share repurchase reduces the number of existing shares, making each worth a greater percentage of the corporation. The stock's EPS increases, which means the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) will decrease, assuming the stock price remains the same.

What companies are buying back stock in 2023? ›

2023 Stock Buyback Announcements
CompanyCurrent PriceBuyback Amount
SANM Sanmina$54.11 +3.2%$200 million
MMI Marcus & Millichap$30.68 +3.2%$70 million
AAPL Apple$180.48 +0.2%$90 billion
MET MetLife$53.32 +5.8%$3 billion
25 more rows

Will share repurchases increase earnings per share? ›

The share repurchase reduces the number of existing shares, making each worth a greater percentage of the corporation. The stock's EPS increases, which means the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) will decrease, assuming the stock price remains the same.

Is a stock buyback dilutive for EPS? ›

When a company buys back its own shares, it increases its earnings per share (EPS) when its reverse P/E is higher than the after-tax interest rate on its debt (or investments). This is EPS accretion. Otherwise, EPS has been diluted.

Are companies required to announce share buybacks? ›

Second, the rule will require issuers to provide disclosure about their buyback programs. Such disclosure will include details about the objectives or rationales for the buyback as well as the process or criteria used to determine the buyback amount.

What stocks will explode in 2023? ›

Bank of America's Best Growth Stocks of 2023
CompanyForward Sales Growth Next Year
Progressive (PGR)+13.0%
SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG)+22.3%
T-Mobile (TMUS)+3.5%
United Rentals (URI)+4.5%
6 more rows
Jun 1, 2023

What companies are expected to grow in 2023? ›

Profit Growth Superstars For 2023
CompanyTickerEPS growth expected in 2023
Allstate(ALL)353.3%
T-Mobile US(TMUS)179.5
United Airlines(UAL)176.3
UDR(UDR)162.9
7 more rows
Dec 21, 2022

Do investors prefer dividends or share repurchases? ›

Dividends increase the value of shares to some investors, but buybacks tend to drive faster price increases.

What happens to EPS when debt increases? ›

Whenever the after-tax cost of debt is equal to the earnings yield, EPS will remain the same. However, if the after-tax cost of debt exceeds the earnings yield, EPS will decline.

What are the disadvantages of share buybacks? ›

What Are the Disadvantages of a Buyback of Shares? Starting in 2023, public companies will be required to pay an excise tax of 1% on buybacks.4 Stock repurchases can also falsely boost earnings per share without a corresponding earnings boost.

Do investors care about EPS? ›

Investors use EPS as one of many financial metrics to consider when determining whether to purchase stocks. A company's EPS is one of the most accessible metrics to determine whether a company is profitable. A company with strong EPS growth is often considered a company worthy of investment.

Do I lose my shares in a buyback? ›

Public companies use share buybacks to return profits to their investors. When a company buys back its own stock, it's reducing the number of shares outstanding and increasing the value of the remaining shares, which can be a good thing for shareholders.

What is the new SEC rule for share repurchase? ›

The rules require an issuer to provide new and expanded periodic disclosure of share repurchases in periodic reports filed with the SEC (Forms 10-K, 10-Q, 20-F or N-CSR). Foreign private issuers that file on FPI forms are required to file quarterly share repurchase disclosures in a new Form F-SR.

Why would a company want to complete a share buy back? ›

Share buybacks enable companies to generate additional shareholder value. Under regular market conditions, the portion of profits that a company uses to buy back shares has a positive effect on the share price.

What must be done before buyback all the shares? ›

Conditions of Buy-back:

1) Buy back of shares must be authorized by its Articles of Association (AOA) of the company, if no provision in AOA then first alter the AOA.

What are the safest stocks to buy in 2023? ›

For the rest of 2023, investors should consider some safe stock winners like Walmart (NYSE:WMT), Home Depot (NYSE:HD) and O'Reilly Automotive (NASDAQ:ORLY). Today, these stocks still have substantial competitive advantages and unique business characteristics likely to support outperformance in this cycle.

What is the best potential stock for 2023? ›

10 of the Best Stocks to Buy for 2023
StockYTD Total Returns Through June 6
Citigroup Inc. (C)6.6%
Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)50.7%
Walt Disney Co. (DIS)6.1%
PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL)-8.7%
7 more rows
Jun 7, 2023

Which stock will perform better in 2023? ›

The Famous Five of 2023
Sr NoCompanies
1HDFC Bank
2TCS
3Hindustan Unilever
4Infosys
1 more row

Which sector will boom in 2023 usa? ›

Healthcare. If interest rates remain high and the U.S. economy moves into a recession this year as a result (as many experts are predicting), Akullian points to the healthcare sector as a contender for strong performance in 2023.

What are the top 5 sectors to invest in 2023? ›

5 Best Sectors for Long-term Investment in India 2023
  • Information Technology (IT)
  • FMCG (Fast-moving consumer goods)
  • Housing finance companies.
  • Automobile Companies.
  • Infrastructure.
  • Bonus: Pharmaceuticals Stocks.
Apr 1, 2023

Which stocks could double in 2023? ›

7 Growth Stocks That Could Double Your Money in 2023
RAMPLiveRamp$24.68
KYMRKymera Therapeutics$28.35
SDGRSchrodinger$26.10
HSAIHesai Group$8.10
ABCLAbCellera Biologics$5.74
2 more rows
May 14, 2023

Why buy back shares instead of dividend? ›

Why Buyback? Buybacks are clearly a more tax-efficient way to return capital to shareholders because the investor doesn't incur any additional tax on the buyback sale process. Tax is only applicable on the actual sale of shares, whereas dividends attract tax in the range of 15% to 20%.

Do you pay taxes on stock buybacks? ›

Last year, Congress required publicly-traded companies to pay a 1 percent excise tax on stock buybacks, which continued apace. President Biden now has proposed to increase the buyback tax to 4 percent, which Democratic congressional leaders quickly endorsed.

What are the pros and cons of share buybacks? ›

Pros and cons of stock buybacks
Pros of Stock BuybacksPotential Drawbacks of Stock Buybacks
Can make earnings growth look stronger.Reduce available cash on a company's balance sheet.
Can offset dilution from stock-based compensation.Buybacks are now subject to a 1% excise tax.
3 more rows

What will increase EPS? ›

A company can boost its EPS by increasing its earnings or reducing its share count through share buybacks, but a company that increases its outstanding share count faster than its earnings will cause its EPS to drop.

What is a good increase in EPS? ›

As mentioned before, a good EPS growth rate is over 15%, and it will usually be preceded by a higher revenue growth rate.

What is the EPS fallacy? ›

The fallacy is believing that anything that improves EPS will have the same effect on value creation and TRS.

How much tax do you pay on profit from buyback of shares? ›

Under Section 115QA of the Income Tax Act, any domestic company that buys back its own shares is liable to pay additional income tax on the distributed income at an effective tax rate of 23.296% of distributed income [Rate of tax - 20% (plus surcharge @ 12% plus Health and education cess @ 4%)].

When should you sell shares or not? ›

Investors might sell a stock if it's determined that other opportunities can earn a greater return. If an investor holds onto an underperforming stock or is lagging the overall market, it may be time to sell that stock and put the money to work in another investment.

What happens to market cap after share buyback? ›

Share repurchases use cash (capital) to reduce the number of shares outstanding. This reduces the aggregate value of the company (market capitalization) in rough terms by the amount of the repurchase, net of any indirect increase in share price. By reducing the shares outstanding, earnings per share increase.

Why are share buybacks bad for shareholders? ›

If a management team is buying stock at any price, rather than at a good price, it may be wasting shareholder capital. So if a stock is really only worth $100 but a management team is buying it for $150, that destroys value.

What are the 5 advantages of buyback of shares? ›

What are the advantages of Share Buyback?
  • Return of Surplus Cash to the Shareholders. ...
  • Increase in the Value of Shares. ...
  • Increase in Price of Undervalued Share. ...
  • Reaching the Perfect Capital Structure. ...
  • Consolidating the Control. ...
  • Tax Savings. ...
  • Stopping a Hostile Takeover. ...
  • Conclusion.
Mar 25, 2022

Are buybacks good for long term shareholder value? ›

In terms of finance, buybacks can boost shareholder value and share prices while also creating a tax-advantageous opportunity for investors. While buybacks are important to financial stability, a company's fundamentals and historical track record are more important to long-term value creation.

Why is EPS not important to investors? ›

Comparing EPS in absolute terms may not have much meaning to investors because ordinary shareholders do not have direct access to the earnings. Instead, investors will compare EPS with the share price of the stock to determine the value of earnings and how investors feel about future growth.

Can companies manipulate EPS? ›

The EPS portion of the income statement is also often adjusted based on non-GAAP measures. Companies can potentially manipulate the EPS number through its management of shares or its adjustments using non-GAAP items.

Will EPS be higher or less if there is more debt? ›

With higher use of debt, the difference between RoI and cost of debt increases the EPS. This is a situation of favorable financial leverage. In such cases, companies often employ more of cheaper debt to enhance the EPS.

What is the buyback tax in 2023? ›

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Today, U.S. Senators Sherrod Brown (D-OH) and Ron Wyden (D-OR) introduced the Stock Buyback Accountability Act of 2023, which would increase taxes a publicly-traded company spends on buying back its own stock from one percent to four percent.

Who pays the 1% tax on stock buybacks? ›

The 1 Percent Excise Tax

The buyback tax moves toward tax parity between buybacks and dividends through an indirect approach. Whereas individuals pay income taxes on dividends, corporations pay the buyback excise tax, which lowers their total assets and thus reduces the value of their shares.

Is there a 1% tax on corporate stock buybacks? ›

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 imposed a new 1 percent excise tax on the value of corporate share repurchases (net of issuance). Because this tax is assessed at the business entity level rather than at the shareholder level, it is levied on all US corporate equity, not just the amount held in taxable accounts.

What is the 10 12 rule for share buy back? ›

In the context of a share buy-back, a company should determine its 10/12 limit as follows: Total the following: the number of voting shares bought back during the 12 months before the date of the proposed buy-back; and. the number of voting shares it intends to buy back under the proposed buy-back.

What is rule 7.2 stock market? ›

In accordance with the second paragraph of NYSE Rule 7.2, when the holiday falls on a Saturday, the Exchange will not be open for business on the preceding Friday, and when it falls on a Sunday, the Exchange will not be open for business on the succeeding Monday.

What is the new SEC rule 2a 5? ›

The rule requires that funds assess periodically any material risks associated with determining the fair value of the fund's investments, including material conflicts of interest, and managing those identified valuation risks.

What happens to share price before buyback? ›

A buyback is seen as a positive signal from the company. It indirectly indicates to shareholders that the company's prospects are good. It also signifies that the stock price will rise as the outstanding shares in the market decrease.

Who owns a company if it buys back all its shares? ›

No. That's because when a corporation buys back its own shares the effect is simply to make all of the other outstanding shares own a larger percentage of the corporation. So if it bought back all but one share of its stock, that one remaining share would be the owner of the entire company.

What happens if you buy every share of a company? ›

While it's possible for you to purchase all the available shares in company, you should be aware that the price of the shares will likely rise because of the increased demand. Competitive investors tend to purchase shares incrementally to prevent a sudden increase in price.

How do I tender my shares for buyback? ›

Do not sell shares after placing the order. Only shareholders who hold shares as of the ex-date/record date are eligible for the corporate action. Orders for buybacks, takeovers, and delistings can be placed in two tranches: The first one is collected until 6:00 PM, one trading day before the offer end date.

How do you tender a buyback stock? ›

During the application process of share buyback, you will be given a tender form by the company. This form is where you enter the number of shares of that company that you wish to tender.

What are the guidelines on share buybacks for listed companies? ›

The Articles of Association of the company must allow it. The company must submit for approval by the Capital Markets Authority (CMA) a circular setting out the terms and conditions of the share buyback proposal. The share buyback must be approved by the shareholders of the company.

Which company is going to buy back shares? ›

List of buyback of shares in India 2023
Company NameRecord DateIssue Open
Wipro LimitedJun 16, 2023
TeamLease Services LimitedApr 03, 2023May 12, 2023
Symphony LimitedMar 29, 2023May 03, 2023
Emami LimitedApr 13, 2023
22 more rows

Will the stock market make a comeback in 2023? ›

10% Return for S&P 500 a Real Possibility by End of 2023

And in today's market, with its newfound emphasis on fundamentals, earnings really matter. Short of a recession — a very real possibility — consensus estimates are for about 5% earnings growth for S&P 500 companies in 2023.

What companies are buying their stock back? ›

10 Stocks with the Biggest Buybacks
  • Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) Q3 2022 Buybacks (Million): $3,697. ...
  • NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) Q3 2022 Buybacks (Million): $3,779. ...
  • Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:MPC) Q3 2022 Buybacks (Million): $3,908. ...
  • Lowe's Companies, Inc. (NYSE:LOW) ...
  • The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE:PG)
Jan 14, 2023

Is the stock market expected to recover in 2023? ›

"In the first half of 2023, the S&P 500 is expected to re-test the lows of 2022, but a pivot from the Federal Reserve could drive an asset recovery later in the year, pushing the S&P 500 to 4,200 by year-end," the investment bank said in a research note.

What stock has the biggest buybacks? ›

Apple Inc. is the biggest purveyor of buybacks and has been for a decade, spending $557.39 billion in the 10 years up to the second quarter of 2022, more than the total market capitalization of 494 of the S&P 500 companies.

When should I buy shares for buyback? ›

If a stock is dramatically undervalued, the issuing company can repurchase some of its shares at this reduced price and then re-issue them once the market has corrected, thereby increasing its equity capital without issuing any additional shares.

Which company will give bonus share in feb 2023? ›

Bonus
COMPANYBonus RatioDATE
Vinny Overseas13:1024-02-2023
Evans Electric1:110-02-2023
M K Proteins2:103-02-2023
Goldstar Power4:520-01-2023
38 more rows

Where will the S&P 500 be at the end of 2023? ›

The S&P 500 is up about 9% so far in 2023 after falling 19.4% in 2022. Gains this year are largely thanks to big growth and technology stocks, which have rallied as other areas of the market have faltered, like regional banks.

At what age should you stop investing in the stock market? ›

You probably want to hang it up around the age of 70, if not before. That's not only because, by that age, you are aiming to conserve what you've got more than you are aiming to make more, so you're probably moving more money into bonds, or an immediate lifetime annuity.

Where will S&P 500 end 2023? ›

The majority of the time, the index bounces back strongly after its down years, and that bodes well for investors in 2023. Excluding the two instances mentioned above, it has returned an average of 23.4% in the years immediately following a loss. If history repeats, the S&P 500 could finish 2023 at 4,718.

What is the meta share buyback program? ›

Arguably, some companies such as Meta use buybacks as a way of neutralizing the negative price effect of issuing shares. The deal to the market is that the company will conserve cash by paying employees partially in stock, and later on, it will buy back stock to soften the negative impact of the higher share count.

Who benefits from stock buybacks? ›

Share buybacks enable companies to generate additional shareholder value. Under regular market conditions, the portion of profits that a company uses to buy back shares has a positive effect on the share price. For instance, a listed company has 1,000 shares of which a shareholder owns 100 (a 10% stake).

Does Nvidia buy back their own stock do they give dividends? ›

SANTA CLARA, CA -- NVIDIA today announced that it will return $1 billion this fiscal year to shareholders in the form of stock buybacks and dividend payments, including $100 million in stock being repurchased this quarter.

What is the outlook for US stocks in 2023? ›

In the first half of 2023, the S&P 500 is expected to re-test the lows of 2022, but a pivot from the Fed could drive an asset recovery later in the year, pushing the S&P 500 to 4,200 by year-end.

Will the stock market bounce back in 2024? ›

One of Wall Street's most vocal bears expects the stock market to fully recover its losses and trade to record highs in 2024. "This is not the end of the world.

Are we in a bull or bear market 2023? ›

Here are some additional reasons why 2023 is shaping up to be a historic bull market. The previous week's better than expected Consumer Price Index (CPI), and Producer Price Index (PPI) confirmed that inflation was on the decline.

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