Top Texas Climate Change Risks: Heat, Precipitation, Fire (2024)

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Use this page to learn how climate change is affecting people in Texas.

Then, use our tool to check your address for local and property-specific heat, precipitation, drought, fire, and flood risk.

Climate Change Risk Ratings for Texas

People in Texas will experience especially increased risks from heat, precipitation, and fire due to climate change over the next 30 years. These risks, through 2050 and beyond, may change depending on how much we reduce emissions in the near future.

ClimateCheck Risk Ratings measure the risk posed by a hazard on a 1-100 scale, using historical conditions and projected scenarios through 2050. Climate change has complex, interacting local and large-scale effects that impact everyone on Earth, and a low risk rating does not mean no exposure to impacts from that hazard. See how we measure risk.

Top Texas Climate Change Risks: Heat, Precipitation, Fire (2)

Top Texas Climate Change Risks: Heat, Precipitation, Fire (3)

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Climate Risks for Cities in Texas

Of these top cities in Texas, the city with the highest overall risk is Houston. The city with the lowest overall risk is Laredo.

  • For heat, El Paso has the lowest risk and San Antonio has the highest risk.
  • For precipitation, El Paso has the lowest risk and Houston has the highest risk.
  • For drought, Amarillo has the lowest risk and San Antonio has the highest risk.
  • For fire, Houston has the lowest risk and Lubbock has the highest risk.
  • For flood, San Antonio has the lowest risk and Austin has the highest risk.

Top Texas Climate Change Risks: Heat, Precipitation, Fire (4)

Top Texas Climate Change Risks: Heat, Precipitation, Fire (5)

Comparing Texas and Other States

Among the lower 48 states, Texas's highest ranking is #4 for heat risk.

Louisiana and Mississippi rank highest for heat risk California and Oregon rank lowest for heat risk

Texas ranks #15 for fire risk.
Highest fire risk: Oklahoma and Wyoming
Lowest fire risk: Maine and Vermont
See our fire ranking methodology.

Texas ranks #10 for drought risk.
Highest drought risk: Nevada and California
Lowest drought risk: Mississippi and Vermont


Texas ranks #36 for storm risk.
Highest storm risk: Rhode Island and New York
Lowest storm risk: Nevada and Arizona


Texas ranks #38 for flood risk.
Highest flood risk: Arizona and West Virginia
Lowest flood risk: Utah and Nevada

Top Texas Climate Change Risks: Heat, Precipitation, Fire (6)

Top Texas Climate Change Risks: Heat, Precipitation, Fire (7)

Heat Risk in Texas with Climate Change

An extremely hot day in Texas depends on your location: 105ºF is extremely hot for Laredo, while 96ºF is considered extremely hot for Corpus Christi. This is based on historical maximum temperatures on the top 2% of days in an average year.

Top Texas Climate Change Risks: Heat, Precipitation, Fire (8)

Top Texas Climate Change Risks: Heat, Precipitation, Fire (9)

The frequency of very hot days is increasing. On average, someone in Texas will experience about 43 extremely hot days in 2050.

Top Texas Climate Change Risks: Heat, Precipitation, Fire (10)

Top Texas Climate Change Risks: Heat, Precipitation, Fire (11)

Precipitation Risk in Texas with Climate Change

To measure precipitation risk, we look at the amount of precipitation that falls in 48-hour periods exceeding a location-specific threshold, and how many times this happens per year. A precipitation threshold is based on the top 1% of rainiest days per year for a location.

Historically, Houston experienced an average of 2.0 inches of rain about 10 times per year. In 2050, it is projected to experience an average of 1.9 inches of rain about 11 times per year.

Historically, El Paso experienced an average of 0.5 inches of rain about 9 times per year. In 2050, it is projected to experience an average of 0.5 inches of rain about 9 times per year.

Top Texas Climate Change Risks: Heat, Precipitation, Fire (12)

Top Texas Climate Change Risks: Heat, Precipitation, Fire (13)

Fire Risk in Texas with Climate Change

Locally, fire risk depends on proximity to vegetation, the type of vegetations and other landcover in the area, and topography. On a given day, fire risk is greatly increased in the presence of a red flag warning, when heat, low humidity, and strong winds converge.

Top Texas Climate Change Risks: Heat, Precipitation, Fire (14)

Top Texas Climate Change Risks: Heat, Precipitation, Fire (15)

Drought Risk in Texas with Climate Change

Drought risk is based on water stress, which is a projection of how much of the water supply will be taken up by human demand.

In the figure, the blue bars represent the available water every 10 years from 2020-2060, and the orange bars represent demand. The drought risk rating is based on the ratio of supply to demand and the projected change in this ratio. Lower supply and higher demand correspond to a higher score.

Top Texas Climate Change Risks: Heat, Precipitation, Fire (16)

Top Texas Climate Change Risks: Heat, Precipitation, Fire (17)

Flood Risk in Texas with Climate Change

Coastal flood hazards include storm surge, when strong winds push water to shore, and rising sea levels due to climate change. The rate of sea level rise varies along the coast. Rising seas contribute to greater instances and spread of high-tide flooding, when high tides inundate land, and greater potential storm surge depths.

Top Texas Climate Change Risks: Heat, Precipitation, Fire (18)

Top Texas Climate Change Risks: Heat, Precipitation, Fire (19)

How can we prevent climate change and protect our homes and communities?

Mitigating climate change—by eliminating our emissions into the atmosphere and reducing our strain on the environment—and adapting to our changing planet are both vital to our well-being.

Understand Risks

Check your address and get a free report describing risks to your property and in your area.

Your level of risk depends on your city's capacity to adapt. Look up information on your city's characteristics and how they relate to preparedness for climate change: ND-GAIN Urban Adaptation Assessment.

Protect Homes and Communities

Check our free report for tips on protecting your home from hazards.

Green infrastructure is a category of nature-based solutions to increasing precipitation. Find resources for individuals and municipalities through the EPA's Soak Up the Rain initiative.

Planting trees and vegetation helps reduce extreme heat in urban environments. Cool Pavements can also help urban heat islands. Search the Heat Island Community Actions Database to see what some municipalities have been doing to reduce extreme heat risk.

Read more about building resilience for communities: U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit.

Use the Common Cause tool to find your representatives—federal to local—how to contact them, and information about political contributions and bills they have introduced.

Find Balance



Change is necessary–and possible–across the globe and in every part of our society. Learn more with Project Drawdown's introduction to climate solutions.

Estimate your home's carbon footprint with the CoolClimate Calculator. Or, estimate the carbon footprint of your business.

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Top Texas Climate Change Risks: Heat, Precipitation, Fire (2024)

FAQs

Top Texas Climate Change Risks: Heat, Precipitation, Fire? ›

Climate Risks for Cities in Texas

How hot will it be in Texas in 2050? ›

AUSTIN (KXAN) — The Fifth National Climate Assessment was released this week and found that Austin can expect 100-degree days to double by 2050, and perhaps even triple by the end of the century if global greenhouse gas emissions go unchecked.

Why is Texas getting so hot? ›

The heat dome over Texas

The Houston area has been experiencing a rigid high-pressure dome for most of the summer. The dome warms the region by causing air to sink, which inhibits rainfall, and it traps heat in the atmosphere, which creates a heat-island effect, Adams said.

What are the climate risks in Dallas Texas? ›

People in Dallas, TX are especially likely to experience increased risks from heat, drought, and precipitation. Heat risk in Dallas, TX is extreme. Drought and precipitation risk is high. About 62% of buildings in Dallas, TX are at risk of wildfire, and the risk level for these buildings is significant.

Is Texas in danger of climate change? ›

Texas is expected to experience a wide range of environmental impacts from climate change in the United States, including rising sea levels, more frequent extreme weather events, and increasing pressure on water resources. Texas was ranked second by GDP across the U.S.

How long will Texas be livable? ›

Texans should expect warmer weather, more wildfires and urban flooding, and increased impact from hurricanes through 2036 thanks to climate change, according to a new study from the Office of the Texas State Climatologist at Texas A&M University.

Will Texas be hot in 2024? ›

Summer 2024 outlook

Unfortunately, the National Weather Service's three-month outlook for June through August favors above-average temperatures again for all of Texas. Here is the National Weather Service's three-month outlook for June, July and August 2024. Above-average temperatures are favored for all of Texas.

Will Texas be too hot to live in? ›

(TNS) Over the next 30 years, Texas and other parts of the central U.S. are at risk of being exposed to extreme he—at — temperatures exceeding 125 degrees. The human body can no longer tolerate heat at that levels.

Is Texas the hottest state in the US? ›

Florida is the hottest state in the US, with an average temperature of 73.4 °F. Louisiana is the second hottest state, with an average temperature of 68.5 °F, followed by Texas, the third hottest state, with an average temperature of 68 °F.

How hot is too hot for humans? ›

A new study suggests that once temperatures hit 104 to 122 degrees, our bodies may stop working optimally.

How hot will Dallas be in 2050? ›

Between 2041 and 2050, Dallas-Fort Worth may see August temperatures rise from a mean of 86 degrees Fahrenheit at the end of the 20th century to 94 degrees, with extremes rising above 120, reports one study by scientists at the University of Texas at Arlington.

How hot will Texas be in 2040? ›

Summer maximum temperatures are projected to increase by +2 to +3oF under both the lower and higher scenarios by near-‐century (2011-‐2040). By mid-‐century (2041-‐2070), temperatures are projected to increase by +3.5oF under the lower and +6oF under the higher scenario.

What city in Texas has the safest weather? ›

Climate Risks for Cities in Texas

The city with the lowest overall risk is Laredo. For heat, El Paso has the lowest risk and San Antonio has the highest risk. For precipitation, El Paso has the lowest risk and Houston has the highest risk.

How will Texas look like in 2050? ›

In Texas, projections show cities on the state's southern coastline have the highest risk of being underwater by 2050. Cities like Galveston and Bayou Vista appear at risk of heavy flooding during annual high-water events according to the map projections.

How hot will Texas get with climate change? ›

A report by Texas A&M University's Office of the Texas State Climatologist projects average Texas temperatures in 2036 will be 3 degrees warmer than the average temperature from 1950 to 1999 and 1.8 degrees warmer than the 1991–2020 average.

What is the biggest environmental problem in Texas? ›

Despite progress in recent years, air pollution from petrochemical facilities, power plants, cars and trucks, and more causes thousands of premature deaths in Texas each year, as well as inducing a host of human health issues including asthma and cancer.

How hot will Texas get in the future? ›

Texas will continue to see temperature increases over the next 30 years, with Aransas County in South Texas facing the largest increase in hot days between now and 2053. In 2023, Aransas County can expect a week at or above 107.6 degrees, which will grow to 28 days in 30 years. Why is it getting hotter in Texas?

How hot will Texas be in 2100? ›

Climate Projections for Austin
Historical ObservedEnd-of-century (2071-2100)
HIGHER
TEMPERATURE
Summer average high temperature (°F)93.8100.2
Cold nights (minimum temperature < 32°F)16.66.4
9 more rows

How hot will the temperature be in 2050? ›

Since 1880, average global temperatures have increased by about 1 degrees Celsius (1.7° degrees Fahrenheit). Global temperature is projected to warm by about 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7° degrees Fahrenheit) by 2050 and 2-4 degrees Celsius (3.6-7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100.

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