Three myths about Greece's enormous debt mountain (2024)

€317bn. Over 175pc of national output. That's the enormous debt mountain that faces the new Greek government. It is the issue over which the country is set to clash with other countries in the eurozone.

As it stands, Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio is the highest in the currency bloc. It has been steadily rising as the country has undergone painful austerity and experienced a severe contraction in economic output.

The new far-left/right-wing coalition is now demanding a write-off of up to 50pc of its liabilities. The government argues that this is the only way Greece can remain in the single currency and prosper.

According to the newly appointed finance minister, who first coined the term "fiscal waterboarding" to describe Greece's plight, the EU has loaded "the largest loan in human history on the weakest of shoulders - the Greek taxpayer".

So far, the rest of the eurozone is adamant that it will not meet demands for debt forgiveness.

And yet, the value of Greece's debt mountain has been called a meaningless "accounting fiction" by Nobel laureate Paul Krugman.

So what does Greece’s €317bn debt really mean for the country and its creditors? And can it ever be paid back?

Never say never. On the issue of repaying back its liabilities, it's more a question of time, rather than money.

Greece has already been the beneficiary of a number of debt extensions, and in 2012, underwent the biggest private sector debt restructuring in history.

The average maturity on Greek government debt currently stands at 16.5 years. The sustainability, or otherwise, of the country’s burden relies more on the timetable for repayment rather than the overall stock of the debt, argue many economists.

The chart below shows the repayment schedule on the country's €245bn rescue package and extends all the way out to 2054.

Three myths about Greece's enormous debt mountain (1)

Although the question of cancelling any portion of the principal owed to Greece's creditors seems to be a firm no-go area, the idea of further debt extensions could be an option.

But as noted by Ben Wright, allowing Greece more time to payback its loans is still a fiscal transfer in all but name.

Myth 2: Greece is paying punitive interest rates

Not really. Greece has managed to negotiate favourable terms on which it can service the cost of its loans and the interest paid by the country is far below that of Spain, Ireland, and Portugal (see chart below).

Think-tank Bruegel calculates that Greece paid a sum equal to around 2.6pc of its GDP (rather than the widely quoted figure of around 4pc) to service its loans last year.

This is because Greece will actually receive back the interest it pays to the ECB should it continue to meet its bail-out conditions.

Even without a further renegotiation on interest payments, the costs could be even lower this year. In the words of economist Zolst Darvas from Bruegel:

Three myths about Greece's enormous debt mountain (2)

Given that interest rates have fallen significantly from 2014, actual interest expenditures of Greece will be likely below 2pc of GDP in 2015, if Greece will meet the conditions of the bail-out programme.

It is this combination of such long maturities and rock-bottom interest rates, that has led at least one former ECB governing board member to argue that Greece's debt burden is far more sustainable than many of its southern neighbours.

Three myths about Greece's enormous debt mountain (3)

Who owns Greek debt? (Source: Open Europe)

Myth 3: "Greece won't recover without debt forgiveness"

Wrong again. For all the fixation on the outstanding stock of Greek debt, kickstarting growth in the country is more likely to happen through a relaxation of budget rules rather than a debt cancellation.

With the coffers looking sparse, the Syriza-led government is also asking for a renegotiation of the surplus rules imposed on the country.

Greece is currently required to run a primary surplus of 4.5pc of its GDP. Before taking account of its debt interest payments, it is likely to achieve a primary budget surplus of around 3pc of its national output this year.

This severely limits the new government's room for fiscal manoeuvre. It also makes it almost impossible for Syriza to fulfil its pre-election promises to raise the minimum wage and create public sector jobs.

According to calculations from Paul Krugman:

Three myths about Greece's enormous debt mountain (4)

Dropping the requirement that Greece run a primary surplus of 4.5pc of GDP would allow spending to rise by 9pc of GDP, and that this would raise GDP by 12pc relative to what it would have been otherwise. Unemployment would fall by around 10pc relative to no relief.

None of this is to deny that Greece would hugely benefit from a significant debt cancellation. But the politics of the eurozone means that this is virtually impossible.

However, there do seem to be other ways that Greece could start tackling its enormous debt mountain.

Three myths about Greece's enormous debt mountain (2024)

FAQs

What was a reason why Greece had so much debt? ›

The Greek debt crisis originated from heavy government spending and problems escalated over the years due to slowdown in global economic growth. When Greece became the 10th member of the European Union (EU) on January 1, 1981, the country's economy and finances were in good shape.

How bad was the Greek debt crisis? ›

The figure for Greek government debt at the end of 2009 increased from its first November estimate at €269.3 billion (113% of GDP) to a revised €299.7 billion (127% of GDP). This was the highest for any EU country. The methodology of revisions, has led to a certain controversy.

Who does Greece owe money to? ›

In total, Greece now owes the EU and IMF roughly 290 billion euros ($330 billion), part of a public debt that has climbed to 180 percent of GDP. To finance this debt, Athens commits to running a budget surplus through 2060, accepts continued EU financial supervision, and imposes additional austerity measures.

Is Greece still broke? ›

The Greek GDP fell from $355.9 billion in 2008 to $188.7 billion in 2020 and is now starting to grow again at around $216.4 billion in 2021. The economic depression left Greeks exhausted, angry and disillusioned. Nearly half a million left for Europe's more affluent north, and few have returned.

How much debt is Greece in 2024? ›

Greece: National debt from 2018 to 2028 (in billion U.S. dollars)
CharacteristicNational debt in billion U.S. dollars
2024*409.58
2023*408.23
2022404.33
2021397.97
7 more rows
Apr 10, 2024

How much is Greece in debt? ›

In the latest reports, Greece National Government Debt reached 391.0 USD bn in Jun 2023. The country's Nominal GDP reached 57.9 USD bn in Mar 2023.

When did Greece go broke? ›

Greece defaulted on a debt of €1.6 billion to the IMF in 2015. 1. The financial crisis was largely the result of structural problems that ignored the loss of tax revenues due to systematic tax evasion.

What country has the highest debt? ›

At the top is Japan, whose national debt has remained above 100% of its GDP for two decades, reaching 255% in 2023.

Who bailed out Greece in 2010? ›

The European Union (EU), European Central Bank (ECB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) agree to participate in the bailout. 2 May 2010 – The IMF, Greek Prime Minister Papandreou, and other eurozone leaders agree to the First bailout package for €110 billion ($143 billion) over 3 years.

Is Greece a safe place to visit right now? ›

Greece - Level 1: Exercise Normal Precautions

Exercise normal precautions in Greece. Read the country information page for additional information on travel to Greece.

Which country has no debt? ›

1) Switzerland

Switzerland is a country that, in practically all economic and social metrics, is an example to follow. With a population of almost 9 million people, Switzerland has no natural resources of its own, no access to the sea, and virtually no public debt.

Who bailed out Greece? ›

The euro zone and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) together lent Greece more than 260 billion euros during its decade-long debt crisis which began in late 2009, in exchange for tough austerity measures. The country's third bailout expired in 2018.

Is Greece poor or rich country? ›

The economy of Greece is the 54th largest in the world, with a nominal gross domestic product (GDP) of $250.276 billion per annum. In terms of purchasing power parity, Greece is the world's 55th largest economy, at $430.125 billion per annum.

Is Greece in a depression? ›

After a historic depression during which the Greek economy collapsed by 28%, Athens finally seems to have opened a new chapter. First, there was the crisis (2008-2016), then stabilization (2017-2020), and since emerging from the pandemic, a return to growth.

Is Greece shrinking? ›

Population shrinks by 3.1% compared to a decade ago, while people over 80 steadily increasing. Greek society is aging and experiencing great changes in its structural characteristics, according to the results of the 2021 population census, which were released on Friday by the Hellenic Statistical Authority.

What was the start of the Greek debt crisis? ›

The Greek government-debt crisis began in 2009 and, as of November 2017, was still ongoing. During this period, many changes had occurred in Greece.

When did Greece have a debt crisis? ›

Everything went bust in 2009. A new government then disclosed that Greece's fiscal deficit was far higher than anyone thought, hitting 15.6 percent of GDP in 2011. Bond markets started to lose confidence in Greece's economy.

Why did ancient Greece fail? ›

Constant war divided the Greek city-states into shifting alliances; it was also very costly to all the citizens. Eventually the Empire became a dictatorship and the people were less involved in government. There was increasing tension and conflict between the ruling aristocracy and the poorer classes.

What caused the Greek debt crisis reddit? ›

Those levels were created by the huge amount of borrowing which wasnt sustainable and it is what ultimately created the crisis. The crisis was related to the country not being able to pay of its debts and going bankrupt not its declining GDP.

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