They purchased homes right before the real estate downturn. Now, they're struggling to close (2024)

They purchased homes right before the real estate downturn. Now, they're struggling to close (1)

A group of Ontario residents who purchased pre-construction homes in Brampton at the peak of the recent real estate frenzy say they're now struggling to close on their deals because of a perfect storm of rising interest rates, falling home prices and stricter federal mortgage rules.

CBC News spoke to eight people who bought homes at the Paradise Developments Valley Oak community in late 2021 or early 2022.They all said they're having trouble gettingfinancing due to thesudden real estate downturnbrought on primarily by the Bank of Canada raisinginterest ratesin an effort to tame inflation, which has sent mortgage rates skyrocketingand home values plunging.

The buyers, who are mostly from the Punjabi community, say they want to honour their commitments, but with interest rates so high,many no longer qualify for mortgages.

Thosethat do qualify are being offered hundreds of thousands of dollars less than the amounts they're on the hook forbecause appraisal values have fallen dramatically over the past 10 months. Existing mortgage rates would mean unaffordable payments, they say.

Meanwhile, buyers who planned to sell their existing homes are finding fewinterested buyers as home sales decline across the country.

'We haven't slept,' buyer says

First-time homebuyerGurcharan Rehal agreed in October 2021 to pay $1.959 million, plus $90,000 in upgrades, for a single-detached home that would house himself, his wife, their two children and his mother.

"We thought, if we live hand-to-mouth, we can still afford it," Rehal, an Uber driver who also earns income as a property manager and from a business in India, told CBC News.

But with his closing date approaching next month, he's so far been unable to secure a mortgage.

An appraisal recentlyestimated the home's value at $1.7 million—more than $300,000 less than what he agreed to pay for it.On top of that, he saysthe mortgage rate he was pre-approved for would have required monthly payments of between $5,500 and $6,000,but nowhe'sbeing quoted amounts between $12,000 and $15,000 per month.

Coming up with hundreds of thousands of dollars to cover the difference upon closing— in addition to the $260,000 down payment he's already made— and making exorbitant monthly payments issomething his family simply can't afford.

"Me and my wife, I think we haven't slept for [the] last three months," said Rehal."Our kids, they can see the stress on me and my wife's face."

WATCH | What rising mortgage rates mean for homeowners:

Buyers want closing dates extended

The buyers CBC spoke to say there are around 100 people in the same situation at the development. They provided a contact list showing approximately 60 households.

"We are not able to eat, we are not able to rest," said PoornimaMalisetty, who purchased a detached home in the Paradise Valley Oak community with an in-law suite for $1.9 million that's now being appraised at $1.6 million.

"Even if we win a lottery, we will not be able to close."

The buyers are askingParadise to extend their closing datesor reducetheir purchase prices, and have protested outside the developer's sales office.

In a statement, Paradise Developments said it works collaboratively with purchasers throughout the purchase, construction and closing period.

"Paradise Developments makes business decisions, enters into contracts with suppliers, hires employees and commits to the contracting of numerous building trades based on agreements we have signed," the statement said.

"Whenever purchasers raise individual issues with us, we look to address them in accordance with our policies and the terms of our joint agreement of purchase and sale.Based on having finalized and completed these agreements, construction is now advancing on the homes in this community, and we look forward to completion."

Rehal saysParadise has offered some buyers a three month extension on the closing date in exchange for more money on their deposit, but with the future of interest rates uncertain, he's not sure if he'll take them up on it. They and the other buyers are stillcommunicating individually with Paradise and hoping the builder will extend their closing dates or reduce the prices.

They purchased homes right before the real estate downturn. Now, they're struggling to close (2)

Pre-construction a risky gambit, real estate broker says

John Pasalis, presidentof residential real estate brokerage RealosophyRealty, said the situation highlights the risks of buying pre-construction in a hot housing market.

"They're not buying a home. They're signing up on a contract that obligates them to buy a home in the future at some pre-determined price," said Pasalis.

"If, between the time you sign on that dotted line and the time you're about to take the keys, prices have declined, well, you're on the hook for that difference."

Buyers who wantto break their contracts risk losing their deposits.But if those buyers walk away, builders could also sue them in an effort to recover the difference between the original purchase price and the price they end up selling the home for.

That's something Paradise might do in this case.CBC viewed an email sent to one homebuyerwhere a lawyer for Paradise threatened legal action to recoup "all costs, loss and damages it may suffer as a result of your client's failure to complete this transaction."

They purchased homes right before the real estate downturn. Now, they're struggling to close (3)

Wrong home at the wrong time

The Bank of Canada began incrementally raisingits trend-setting interest rate in March when it was at 0.25 per cent. It's now at 4.25 per cent.

Home prices in the Toronto region, whichhad been rising steadily since 2018, have cratered since then, as have new sales.

The average sale price of a detached home in Brampton went from $1,608,894 at its peak in February to $1,197,119 in November, a decrease of more than $400,000, or 25.5 per cent, according to data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB). The number of detached home sales in the city dropped to142 from 460 in the same period.

Variable mortgage rates, meanwhile, that were around 1.45 per cent one year ago have increased to around5.45 per cent, according to Ron Butler, founder of Butler Mortgage. Five-year fixed rate mortgage rates have increasedfrom 2.89 per centa year agoto around 5.49 per cent today, Butler told CBC in an email.

Compounding the problem is the federal mortgagestress test, which requires buyers to be able to show the ability to pay mortgage payments of 5.25 per centor twoper centabove their approved rate, whichever is higher. Most buyerswere stress tested at 5.25 per centlast year when interest rates were low, but nowthey'rebeing tested above sevenper cent.

"If you,by no fault of your own, got unlucky with your timing you can certainly be in a strained situation," said James Laird, co-CEO of Ratehub.ca and president of mortgage lender CanWise.

LISTEN | Is Ontario's new housing legislation what's needed?:

Condo buyers are facing similar issuesand developers are also feeling the pinch of a challenging market.

Kevin Lee, CEO of the Canadian Home Builders Association, said inflation has raised construction and labour costs, whilehigher interest rates have raised the cost of financing projects.Lee said developers have very little flexibility when it comes to recouping their costs.

"When it's coming time to close onpurchases, it's not like there's a whole bunch of wiggle roomon the builder-developer side of things," Lee said. "Otherwise, they'rein a situation of taking big losses."

Laird and Lee say the market could stabilize sometime next year after the Bank of Canada hinted last week it may be finished with rate hikes.

That would be the best scenario for the Paradise buyers, but it could be a case oftoo little, too late.

"Emotionally and financially, this gonna disturb my whole life," said Rehal,who's now unsure if he'll everbe able to buy a house in Canada.

They purchased homes right before the real estate downturn. Now, they're struggling to close (2024)

FAQs

What does a downturn in the housing market mean? ›

A housing recession is a state of economic downturn in the real estate and housing market, which typically occurs when home prices drop for an extended period. Factors that can affect home prices during a recession include: Job layoffs. Falling incomes. Affordability issues with borrowers.

What happens to the housing market during a recession? ›

What happens to house prices in a recession? While the cost of financing a home increases when interest rates are on the rise, home prices themselves may actually decline. “Usually, during a recession or periods of higher interest rates, demand slows and values of homes come down,” says Miller.

How did the housing market crash affect homeowners? ›

Increased risk of foreclosure

A housing market crash often contributes to an increase in foreclosure activity. Homeowners who experience financial hardships may struggle to make mortgage payments, leading to foreclosure. Foreclosures can have a cascading effect on neighborhoods too.

Why might buying a home during a recession be a good decision? ›

It is easier to get a mortgage. Less demand means more options for buyers. Less demand means less competition with other buyers. More houses are on the market.

Will there be a housing recession in 2024? ›

No — experts do not think there is a housing market crash looming in 2024. Lending standards are much more strict now than they were before the Great Recession, and with low inventory and high demand both continuing, the housing market is not likely to enter a recession in the coming year.

Is there a real estate recession coming? ›

Though many Americans believe the housing market is at risk of crashing, the economists who study housing market conditions overwhelmingly do not expect a crash in 2024 or beyond.

Is it better to have cash or property in a recession? ›

Cash: Offers liquidity, allowing you to cover expenses or seize investment opportunities. Property: Can provide rental income and potential long-term appreciation, but selling might be difficult during an economic downturn.

What gets cheaper during a recession? ›

Because a decline in disposable income affects prices, the prices of essentials, such as food and utilities, often stay the same. In contrast, things considered to be wants instead of needs, such as travel and entertainment, may be more likely to get cheaper.

Will housing be cheaper if the market crashes? ›

During a housing market crash, the value of a home decreases. You will find sellers that are eager to reduce their asking prices.

How long did it take for house prices to recover after 2008? ›

Home prices fully recovered by late 2012. If someone bought a house at the very peak of the recession in 2007 and held the property for 5 years, they made money in appreciation after 2012. It took 3.5 years for the recovery to begin after the recession began.

Will inflation cause a housing crash? ›

Generally, homeowners, especially those with mortgages, benefit from inflation. The value of homes tends to increase faster than inflation, so their investment does not lose value.

How much longer until the housing market crashes? ›

Most experts do not expect a housing market crash in 2024 since many homeowners have built up significant equity in their homes. The issue is primarily an affordability crisis. High interest rates and inflated home values have made purchasing a home challenging for first-time homebuyers.

Why it is difficult to sell a home during a recession? ›

Home prices will fall as the number of homes increases while buyers' participation in the market stays low. Fewer Buyers – Home sellers need to do more to attract a homebuyer when selling a house in a recession. This is because there are fewer qualified homebuyers in the market.

How much did house prices drop in the recession 2008? ›

In January 2008, the median home sales price in Southern California was $415,000, and 23% of the homes sold had been foreclosures. By year-end, 56% of homes sold had been foreclosures, pulling the median sales price down to $278,000.

What are the five stages of a recession? ›

The five stages in a recession occur as follows: 4,3,2,1,3 or peak production, falling demand, falling production, job loss and then falling demand. At first production is at its peak (4) but as demand for product and services falls (3), production also falls (2).

Will house prices go down if there is a recession? ›

Home prices might also change during a recession. While the cost of financing a home typically rises when interest rates rise, home prices may fall. Fewer people compete for the same home inventory because there is less demand and fewer buyers.

Is it good or bad if the housing market crashes? ›

Unfortunately, if the national housing market were to crash, odds are that it would bring down the rest of the economy with it.” This happened in 2008 when the housing market crashed and contributed to the largest global recession since World War II.

Will housing prices go down if a recession happens? ›

We've already established that even if a recession occurs, housing prices in California will remain flat. Even then, there is a possibility of a 5% price reduction or correction, which may or may not happen.

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