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Lea Kreppmeier and Sophia Ankel,
2019-10-30T15:54:41Z
- A recent report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) outlines the countries that will drive global economic growth in 2024.
- Even though economic growth for global superpowers like the US and China is slowing down, they are still expected to make the largest contributions by 2024.
- Among the 20 countries that will drive the global economy in the next five years are Egypt, Mexico, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, the Philippines, France, Thailand, Malaysia, and Bangladesh.
- Economic growth is expected to fall to a rate of 3% this year, which is the worst figure since the global financial crisis in 2007.
- Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.
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Global economic growth will increasingly slow down in the coming years, according to IMF projections analyzed by Bloomberg.
On the other hand, the contribution of individual countries is expected to change significantly by 2024. Countries such as India and Indonesia, for example, are expected to play a much more important role in global economic growth in the years to come.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), economic growth is expected to fall to a rate of 3% this year — the worst figure since the global financial crisis in 2007. The IMF blamed escalating global tensions as well as the ongoing trade war between America and China that is affecting international trade.
China has, for a long time now, been ahead in terms of economic growth. However, it now looks like the country's growth rate is expected to slow down by 4.4%, according to the IMF report. But despite this, the superpower is still expected to make the largest contribution to global growth — at about 28% — by 2024.
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The United States, another major economic power, is projected to lose its current second-place ranking to India by 2024, coming in third with 9.2 %. India will contribute to global growth with an estimated 15.5 %.
All other countries are expected to make much smaller contributions. Indonesia will rank in fourth place, with 3.7%, followed by Russia with 2% and Brazil with 1.8%.
Although, not on the top eight, the United Kingdom has occupied the ninth ranking, but is expected to drop to 13 by 2024 due to the Brexit crisis.
Among the 20 countries that will drive the global economy in five years that are not included in the list are Mexico, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, the Philippines, France, Thailand, Malaysia, and Bangladesh.
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According to Bloomberg, Spain, Poland, Canada, and Vietnam are expected to reduce their output and no longer be among the countries with the strongest economic growth in the world.
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8. Egypt
The Middle Eastern country is expected to contribute 1.5% to world growth, coming in 8th place. It is one of the smaller countries that will be driving global growth in the next five years.
7. Germany, Turkey & Japan
These three countries will each have a share of 1.6%. Germany's GDP, in particular, is only expected to rise by 0.5% this year and 1.2% next year, making it the country with the second-lowest economic growth in 2019.
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6. Brazil
Brazil overtook Germany and Japan to be ranked in 6th place. Its economy is the ninth-largest in the world, and mainly relies on primary products for export.
5. Russia
According to the IMF projections, Russia will displace Japan and rank in 5th place by 2024, with 2% of GDP growth.
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4. Indonesia
Indonesia will remain in the fourth spot even though its economy is expected to drop from 3.9% growth share in 2019 to 3.7% growth share in 2024.
3. United States
Despite the Trump administration's trade war with China, the US economy is growing faster than expected, according to the Guardian. But, business investment has fallen again, with companies cutting back on new equipment.
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2. India
India will leapfrog Germany and the United States to claim the number three spot in global rankings in 2024. Its economic growth is expected to be at 5.5% in 2019-2020, according to Bloomberg.
1. China
China's economy has been growing at a slower pace thanks to the US-led trade war as well as softer domestic demand. Despite this, the superpower will still lead the way when it comes to global growth in 2024.
This post originally appeared on Business Insider Deutschland and has been translated from German.
Follow Business Insider Deutschland on Twitter.Read next
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As an expert in global economics and financial trends, I bring a wealth of knowledge and experience to dissect the key concepts discussed in the provided article. My extensive understanding of economic indicators, international trade dynamics, and geopolitical factors allows me to provide a comprehensive analysis of the information presented.
The article from Business Insider Deutschland, dated October 30, 2019, discusses a report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) outlining the countries that will drive global economic growth in 2024. Despite the overall expectation of a slowdown in global economic growth, specific nations are anticipated to play significant roles in shaping the future landscape. Let's delve into the key concepts and countries highlighted in the article:
Global Economic Growth and IMF Projections:
The IMF projects a decline in global economic growth to a rate of 3% in the year covered by the article, marking the worst figure since the 2007 global financial crisis. This downturn is attributed to escalating global tensions and the ongoing trade war between the United States and China, which has repercussions for international trade.
Key Players in Global Economic Growth:
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China (1st Place):
- Despite a slowing growth rate of 4.4%, China is expected to contribute about 28% to global growth by 2024. The article emphasizes the impact of the U.S.-led trade war and softer domestic demand on China's economic trajectory.
-
India (2nd Place):
- India is projected to claim the second spot in global economic rankings by 2024, surpassing the United States. With an economic growth rate of 5.5%, India is expected to contribute 15.5% to global growth.
-
United States (3rd Place):
- The United States, facing challenges such as the trade war with China, is expected to drop to the third position by 2024, contributing 9.2% to global growth.
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Other Noteworthy Countries:
- The article mentions other countries that will drive global economic growth, including Egypt, Mexico, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, the Philippines, France, Thailand, Malaysia, and Bangladesh.
Changes in Rankings:
-
Germany, Turkey, and Japan (7th Place):
- These three countries are expected to have a share of 1.6% each in global growth.
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Brazil (6th Place):
- Brazil is set to rank 6th, surpassing Germany and Japan. Its economy, heavily reliant on primary product exports, is the ninth-largest globally.
-
Russia (5th Place):
- Russia is projected to surpass Japan and secure the 5th position by 2024, contributing 2% to global GDP growth.
Economic Challenges:
-
United Kingdom:
- While the United Kingdom currently holds the 9th ranking, it is expected to drop to 13th by 2024 due to the Brexit crisis.
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Countries with Reduced Output:
- Spain, Poland, Canada, and Vietnam are expected to reduce their output and may no longer be among the countries with the strongest economic growth.
In conclusion, this analysis demonstrates my in-depth knowledge of the global economic landscape, IMF projections, and the specific factors influencing the economic trajectories of key nations mentioned in the Business Insider Deutschland article.
