The US needs to borrow almost $300 billion this week (2024)

The US needs to borrow almost $300 billion this week (1)

Why Trump's tax cuts could backfire

Uncle Sam needs to borrow a ton of money this week — in the middle of a fight with its biggest creditor.

The United States plans to sell about $294 billion of debt, according to the Treasury Department. That's the highest for a week since the record set during the 2008 financial crisis.

Federal revenue is declining because of President Trump's tax cuts, so the government needs to borrow more to make ends meet. At the same time, Washington's borrowing costs have climbed rapidly in recent months.

"The amount of debt coming on the market this week is extremely large," said Rick Rieder, global chief investment officer of fixed income at BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager.

Related: Trillion-dollar deficits will happen sooner than expected

Awkward timing

The government is auctioning all this short- and longer-term debt at an awkward time. Last week, Trump vowed to impose wide-ranging tariffs on China, which owns of more Treasury bonds than any foreign country.

China responded by saying it would fight any trade war "to the end." When asked by Bloomberg Television whether China was considering scaling back purchases of US debt, China's ambassador to the United States said, "We are looking at all options."

China holds $1.17 trillion of US debt. It trimmed those holdings by 1.4% between December and January, the latest data show.

"We do rely on international investors in Asia for a good deal of our Treasury funding. And that is something a lot of eyes are focused on now," Rieder said.

Related: Wall Street's head-spinning reaction to trade headlines

Why China keeps buying

Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist at Janney Capital, played down concerns about China "abandoning" purchases of US debt.

After all, one reason Beijing owns so many Treasuries is because of a huge trade surplus: China sells more goods and services to the United States than it buys, and it has to do something with all that cash. China chooses to invest in safe assets, like US debt.

"We pay China in dollars for whatever they import to the US. They could take the dollars and hoard them, but that's not a particularly economical exercise," LeBas said.

Washington and Beijing are in talks aimed at reaching a deal that would avert a full-blown trade war. One reason to keep China happy is that Trump needs China and other foreign investors to pay for his tax cuts, which are expected to add more than $1 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade.

"The amount of debt that has to be issued to fund the tax bill is tremendously high," said BlackRock's Rieder.

Borrowing costs on the rise

At the same time, the Federal Reserve has stopped buying US debt as it unwinds a financial crisis-era program that was aimed at keeping borrowing costs low. And investors are growing more worried that inflation will force the Fed to raise short-term interest rates, making all kinds of debt more expensive.

"It's a tricky dynamic for the markets," Rieder said.

Washington is planning to spend even more very soon. Last week, Trump signed a $1.3 trillion spending bill that will further increase borrowing needs.

The United States ran a $215 billion deficit in February, the biggest in six years. The annual budget deficit could exceed $1 trillion as soon as next year, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. The fiscal watchdog group recently warned that interest payments on US debt alone could quadruple to $1.05 trillion by 2028 if current policies stay in effect.

Related: Interest payments on US debt could top $1 trillion

Concerns about the gap between US revenue and spending have helped drive up Treasury rates this year, unnerving stock market investors accustomed to low rates. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked from about 2.4% at the beginning of the year to nearly 3% in February. It's about 2.85% today.

"No one will abandon US Treasuries, but they may demand higher interest rates," LeBas said. He added that borrowing costs don't seem "especially problematic" at these levels.

Rieder anticipates borrowing costs for the federal government will keep rising, especially during the second half of 2018. But he expects very strong demand for Treasuries from life insurers and pension funds that cater to aging baby boomers.

"The demand for fixed income assets is tremendous," Rieder said. "That will put a cap on how high rates go."

— CNNMoney's Jeanne Sahadi and Chris Isidore contributed to this report.

CNNMoney (New York) First published March 27, 2018: 8:56 AM ET

The US needs to borrow almost $300 billion this week (2024)

FAQs

What would happen if the US paid off its debt? ›

Answer and Explanation:

If the U.S. was to pay off their debt ultimately, there is not much that would happen. Paying off the debt implies that the government will now focus on using the revenue collected primarily from taxes to fund its activities.

Who does the US borrow money from? ›

Federal Borrowing

The federal government borrows money from the public by issuing securities—bills, notes, and bonds—through the Treasury. Treasury securities are attractive to investors because they are: Backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government.

What does a federal deficit of 300 billion mean? ›

A deficit occurs when total revenue is less than total spending. When there is a federal deficit of $300 billion, it implies that government spending exceeds total tax revenue by $300 billion. This deficit must be financed through borrowing, i.e., an increase in debt.

Who is the national debt owed to? ›

There are two kinds of national debt: intragovernmental and public. Intragovernmental is debt held by the Federal Reserve and Social Security and other government agencies. Public debt is held by the public: individual investors, institutions, foreign governments.

What happens to Social Security if US defaults? ›

Though trust funds are in place to support Social Security payments to recipients in the event of a debt default, they could be depleted if the United States enters into a debt default.

Will debt ceiling affect Social Security? ›

Under normal conditions, the Treasury sends Social Security payments one month in arrears. That means the check you receive in June covers your benefits for the month of May. If the debt ceiling isn't raised, the Social Security payments due to be sent to beneficiaries in June would most likely still go out.

How much does the US owe China? ›

China is one of the United States's largest creditors, owning about $859.4 billion in U.S. debt. 1 However, it does not own the most U.S. debt of any foreign country. Nations borrowing from each other may be as old as the concept of money.

What country owes the US the most money? ›

With $1.1 trillion in Treasury holdings, Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt. Japan surpassed China as the top holder in 2019 as China shed over $250 billion, or 30% of its holdings in four years.

Does the US borrow from China? ›

U.S. debt offers the safest haven for Chinese forex reserves, which effectively means that China offers loans to the U.S. so that the U.S. can keep buying the goods China produces.

Why is the US in debt? ›

The federal government needs to borrow money to pay its bills when its ongoing spending activities and investments cannot be funded by federal revenues alone. Decreases in federal revenue are largely due to either a decrease in tax rates or individuals or corporations making less money.

Who has the largest deficit in the world? ›

  • A budget deficit occurs when government spending exceeds its revenues. ...
  • A deficit is defined as the income versus expenditure of a government, including capital income and capital expenditures. ...
  • As of 2023, the country with the highest debt is the United States, and twice that of any other country.
Oct 19, 2023

When was the last time the US government ran a surplus? ›

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the United States last had a budget surplus during fiscal year 2001, though the national debt still increased.

Can the US get out of debt? ›

Under current policy, the United States has about 20 years for corrective action after which no amount of future tax increases or spending cuts could avoid the government defaulting on its debt whether explicitly or implicitly (i.e., debt monetization producing significant inflation).

Is the US debt a problem? ›

The U.S. national debt has soared to historic levels relative to the size of the U.S. economy. Many economists say that a rapidly mounting debt load could soon diminish U.S. economic growth, restrict government spending on important programs, and raise the likelihood of financial crises.

Do any countries owe the US money? ›

China owes the United States $1.3 trillion, which is the most debt out of all the countries that are its debtors. Japan was the primary debt holder until 2008, but now comes in second place, with $1.2 trillion. Other countries with outstanding U.S. debt include Russia, India and South Korea.

Is it possible for the US to pay off its debt? ›

It ultimately comes down to the U.S. taxpayers. That means in order to pay it off, or at least make a larger dent in the debt, the federal government would have to raise taxes and cut spending.

Can America pay off its debt? ›

Under current policy, the United States has about 20 years for corrective action after which no amount of future tax increases or spending cuts could avoid the government defaulting on its debt whether explicitly or implicitly (i.e., debt monetization producing significant inflation).

Has the US national debt ever been paid off? ›

By January of 1835, for the first and only time, all of the government's interest-bearing debt was paid off. Congress distributed the surplus to the states (many of which were heavily in debt). The Jackson administration ended with the country almost completely out of debt!

What 3 countries own the most U.S. debt? ›

As of January 2023, the five countries owning the most US debt are Japan ($1.1 trillion), China ($859 billion), the United Kingdom ($668 billion), Belgium ($331 billion), and Luxembourg ($318 billion).

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