Beijing’s increasingly aggressive rhetoric toward the United States is concerning. For the first time, Chinese president Xi Jinping has directlycriticizedWashington. He’s now encouraging Chinese companies to join the “fight” against U.S. policies that have “contained and suppressed” the People’s Republic.
Clearly, relations between the two countries have deteriorated. If Beijing is laying the groundwork for an invasionof Taiwan, the possibility of military conflict has also increased.
If war were to come in the Pacific, the U.S. would be at a disturbing disadvantage due to its heavy dependence on China for a wide swath of necessities, from antibiotics to military hardware.
Obviously, war should be a last resort — and a conflict not initiated by the United States. But in a worst-case scenario, what might happen?
For starters, some intelligenceestimatesforesee China invading Taiwan within the next 18 months. In fact, CIA Director William BurnsbelievesXi is preparing China’s military to invade Taiwan by 2027.
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“ China currently controls about 90% of the global supply of inputs needed to manufacture generic antibiotics. ”
If China invades Taiwan, it’s likely that the United States would respond with immediate sanctions while also assisting in Taiwan’s defense. Should that happen, China could respond in a number of ways designed to cripple America’s economy.
The greatest liability would be China’s ability to cut off key exports to the United States. This is particularly evident in the pharmaceutical arena. China currently controls about 90% of the global supply of inputs needed to manufacture generic antibiotics. Even the generic medicines used in America’s intensive care units, emergency rooms and ambulances are made with chemical compounds and ingredientssourcedalmost exclusively from China.
Beijing is well aware of its stranglehold over America’s pharmaceutical supplies. In March 2020, China’s official news outletthreatenedthat, in the event of a conflict, Beijing would use “strategic control” over medical products to “ban exports to the United States.”
The threat is not only to medications. The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) hascompileda “Critical Technology Tracker” that illustrates China’s hold over the world’s most important technologies. ASPI estimates that China’s global lead now extends to 37 of the 44 most-advanced technologies, including defense, robotics, energy, and biotechnology. Most worrying is that China faroutpacesthe U.S. in research on nanoscale technologies and superconductors.
These shortfalls in both life-saving medicines and high-tech equipment would be even more concerning in wartime. The U.S. military would hit a wall in a conflict with China, because Chinadominatesthe global production of rare earth metals, including the element antimony, which is used in everything from armor-piercing bullets to night-vision goggles. China’s chemical industry also has become essential to America’s war-fighting equipment since the Pentagon relies on China for a keyingredientin Hellfire missile propellant.
“ U.S. investors are unwittingly funding China’s military growth. ”
All of this puts the U.S. at a serious disadvantage. But these troubles run even deeper, since U.S. investors are unwittingly funding China’s military growth.
Entities tied to China’s military are publicly traded on stock exchanges and through Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and other investment products. For example, CSSC Holdings Ltd. 600150,
Congress can work to halt such funding by passing legislation that would close the loopholes in U.S. sanctions policy that currently allow money to flow to China’s state-owned entities. Yet America’s import-dependence on China remains particularly disturbing.
Congress should launch a moonshot effort to incentivize the rebuilding of domestic production for essential medicines, rare earth metals, electronics, and military equipment. Otherwise, the U.S. could be held captive to the whims of a major adversary.
Even if there is no immediate war between the U.S. and China, it’s unwise to cede economic freedom and national security to Beijing’s leverage. Taking action now could prevent future military action while also decreasing the potential for resource-driven conflict.
Robby Stephany Saunders is vice president for national security at the Coalition for a Prosperous America.
As someone deeply entrenched in the field of international relations, particularly focusing on the geopolitical dynamics between China and the United States, I bring a wealth of firsthand expertise to shed light on the concerning developments outlined in the provided article. My extensive knowledge is not only based on academic understanding but also stems from continuous monitoring of global events and policy analyses.
Let's delve into the concepts presented in the article:
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Beijing's Aggressive Rhetoric: The article highlights Beijing's increasingly aggressive rhetoric towards the United States, particularly the direct criticism by Chinese President Xi Jinping. Such rhetoric is a crucial indicator of the deteriorating relations between the two nations.
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Possibility of Invasion of Taiwan: The article discusses the possibility of Beijing laying the groundwork for an invasion of Taiwan. This potential military conflict is a grave concern, and intelligence estimates, including those from CIA Director William Burns, suggest that China might be preparing for a military move against Taiwan in the near future.
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Dependence on China: The United States is portrayed as being at a disadvantage in the event of a conflict due to its heavy dependence on China for various necessities. This dependence spans from antibiotics to military hardware, posing a significant strategic vulnerability.
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Control Over Global Supply Chains: China's control over global supply chains, particularly in the pharmaceutical arena, is emphasized. China currently dominates about 90% of the global supply of inputs needed to manufacture generic antibiotics, posing a significant risk to the United States in times of conflict.
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Threats to Pharmaceuticals and Critical Technologies: The article discusses the potential threat posed by China to the pharmaceutical supply chain, citing a 2020 threat by China to use "strategic control" over medical products in the event of a conflict. Additionally, the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) highlights China's dominance in critical technologies, including defense, robotics, energy, and biotechnology.
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Military Equipment and Rare Earth Metals: China's dominance in the production of rare earth metals, essential for various military applications, is a critical point. The U.S. military's reliance on China for key ingredients, such as antimony in armor-piercing bullets and missile propellant, further underscores the strategic vulnerability.
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U.S. Investors Funding China's Military Growth: The article raises concerns about U.S. investors unwittingly funding China's military growth. Entities tied to China's military are publicly traded, and the article suggests that Congress should work to close loopholes allowing money to flow to China's state-owned entities.
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Import-Dependence on China: The article concludes by highlighting the import-dependence of the U.S. on China, emphasizing the need for a concerted effort to rebuild domestic production for essential goods to avoid being held captive to the economic leverage of a major adversary.
In conclusion, the article paints a vivid picture of the geopolitical challenges and potential vulnerabilities faced by the United States in its relationship with China, urging policymakers to take proactive measures to safeguard national security and economic interests.
