- Avian flu killed 43 million egg-laying hens in 2022.
- Market prices for eggs increased by nearly 267% at its highest in December.
- Some experts expect prices to fall in the coming months.
Egg prices soared last year, reaching historic highs in early 2023.
The reason? An egg shortage sparked by increased demand and bird flu.
That kind of news doesn't go over easy if you're thinking about filling your Easter basket come April.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the average consumer price for a dozen large eggs at the beginning of 2022 was $1.93. That rose to $4.25 by the end of the year.
At stores around northern Ohio, a dozen large eggs range in price from $3.29 to $5, and even more for organic or free range eggs.
Wayne Troyer of Sauder's Eggs in Holmes County's Winesburg said it comes down to supply and demand. Too few eggs, plus high demand, equals rising prices.
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After months of inflated prices, some experts like Troyer see an end in sight. He expects egg prices to fall in the coming months as the market and egg farms rebound.
"I expect commodity market-based egg prices to level out in the next three months," said Troyer, a Midwest sales executive for the egg company.
Avian influenza killed millions of chickens
Between 2021 and 2022, the avian flu killed 50.54 million birds across the nation, the deadliest outbreak in the country's history, according to United States Department of Agriculture data.
The previous record saw 50.5 million chickens, turkeys and other birds die of the virus in 2015.
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The 2022 outbreak, Troyer said, infected entire flocks of egg-laying chickens.
Two major waves struck the country. The first killed roughly 30.7 million chickens between February and June. A second killed 12.6 million from September to December.
High holiday demand egged on shortages
As chicken populations fell, total egg production in the U.S. fell with it. Between 2021 and 2022, production dropped by 6%, the USDA reported in January.
That shortage meant egg inventories could not refill. At the end of 2022, inventories were 29% lower than at the start of the year, according to the USDA.
Demand, meanwhile, remained the same throughout the year. Then the holiday baking season hit, causing another price increase. The USDA reported a 267% price increase in shell eggs in the week leading up to Christmas compared to 11 months earlier.
Once the holidays ended, prices fell slightly to meet less demand.
Large Grade A eggs were roughly 150% more expensive at the start of 2023 than in 2021, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Production companies like Sauder's Eggs competed with other companies while keeping an eye on the bottom line.
Inflation drove up gas, material and labor costs, Troyer said. The market drove up egg prices, offsetting some inflated costs.
"For three years we've been selling at a loss, but these higher prices made it profitable again," he said.
Chicken population on the rebound
To recoup egg-laying hen losses, Troyer said, it could take nearly one year for farmers to reach pre-outbreak numbers.
For those affected by the first avian flu wave, chicken populations could rebound in the next few months, he said.
"It takes time to come back from (an outbreak) like that," Troyer said. "In the meantime, some farmers will try to pivot toward specialty eggs, which were cheaper than commodity eggs and saw more demand than normal.
Once chicken populations rebound, Troyer said, the pre-2022 prices will likely remain a distant memory.
"I think the norm will be around $2.50 to $3.50 for a dozen large eggs," he said.
