The QQQ Fund, Now a $250 Billion Behemoth, Turns 25 (2024)

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The QQQ Fund, Now a $250 Billion Behemoth, Turns 25 (12)

Jack Pitcher , The Wall Street Journal 4 min read 15 Feb 2024, 12:59 AM IST

The QQQ Fund, Now a $250 Billion Behemoth, Turns 25 (14)

Summary

Tech investors still face some of the same market dynamics—and fundamental questions.

Technology companies are powering the stock market ever higher, a few widely held stocks are responsible for most of the gains, and Microsoft is the U.S.’s most valuable company.

The year is 1999, a date that also marks the debut of the Invesco QQQ Trust exchange-traded fund, known as QQQ. Its launch transformed the investing world in some ways. Yet tech investors still face some of the same fundamental questions—and market dynamics—25 years later.

The fund, once synonymous with the dot-com boom and bust, has grown into a $250 billion behemoth. It is the primary tool used by investors big and small to gain broad exposure to big tech stocks.

QQQ, which invests in the 100 largest nonfinancial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange, will turn 25 next month. It has ridden major ups and downs over that period but been a winner for buy-and-hold investors: A $1,000 investment on the fund’s March 10, 1999, debut would have been worth $9,394 at the end of 2023 when reinvesting dividends, almost double a similar investment in a fund tracking the S&P 500.

Microsoft, now valued at just over $3 trillion, is QQQ’s largest holding today just as it was in 1999. Apple was in the fund at launch, as was Amazon.com. Those companies have dramatically shifted their core businesses in the past 25 years while remaining dominant stock market performers.

“People forget that Amazon rose to prominence because it was trying to put Barnes & Noble out of business," said Ryan McCormack, an Invesco senior ETF strategist who covers QQQ. “Apple made computers and then iPods. Microsoft sold software on CD-ROMs."

Nasdaq launched QQQ near the peak of the dot-com bubble. It popped not long after the fund’s launch, sending shares crashing more than 80% between early 2000 and late 2002. Investors who bought in 1999 and 2000 were underwater on their investment for more than a decade, highlighting the boom-and-bust nature of tech investing.

Although few investors are predicting a repeat of 2000, some say they see eerie similarities in today’s market. The Nasdaq-100 soared 54% last year. A mania over artificial intelligence and a handful of big tech stocks are propelling major stock indexes to repeated records.

The AI frenzy has expanded beyond traditional bets like Nvidia and Microsoft to include stocks like Arm Holdings, the U.K. chip maker whose shares soared nearly 50% in a single session last week. Other risky investments, like bitcoin, are surging. The token recently eclipsed $50,000 for the first time since late 2021, when near-zero interest rates had investors chasing all kinds of speculative assets.

Investors and analysts tend to get nervous when just a handful of big stocks are responsible for most of the market’s gains because they worry a broader pullback could be in store if a few companies stumble. Current prices reflect expectations for massive growth and adoption of AI in the coming years, though the nascent technology has little track record.

Yet through the highs and lows in the tech industry, the inflows into QQQ have been consistently strong. By the end of 2000, QQQ had nearly $24 billion in assets, according to Morningstar. Today, it has roughly $250 billion and is the fifth-largest U.S. ETF behind four broader stock market funds.

ETFs, which let investors buy and sell hundreds of stocks through a single, publicly traded share, have become ubiquitous in the decades since QQQ’s launch. They popularized the idea of simply following the market, a strategy known as passive investing that Nasdaq promoted as part of its QQQ advertising campaign after launch.

Investors now take the ability to cheaply and quickly buy broad baskets of stocks for granted. In 1999, the sudden ability to invest in all Nasdaq-100 companies at once was revolutionary. There were no other funds tracking the index.

Nasdaq pumped millions into advertising QQQ, and the fund was a near-overnight hit in part because it kept going up.

“Day after day the Nasdaq was going up, and people were asking, ‘How do I get into this?’ The answer was the Qs," said John Jacobs, a former Nasdaq executive who led the launch of QQQ.

“There was a tech bubble, new companies were going public left and right, and people were learning day trading for the first time. QQQ was the poster child for everything going on and put ETFs on the map for retail investors," he added.

Nasdaq eventually reached a revenue-sharing and licensing agreement with PowerShares, which took over the fund in 2007, shortly after Invesco bought PowerShares.

Today, QQQ is Invesco’s largest fund and there’s a significant ecosystem around it, allowing investors to get long, short, inverse or leveraged exposure. The asset manager also now offers QQQM, a cheaper version aimed at individual investors who don’t require the liquidity that large institutions covet.

Write to Jack Pitcher at jack.pitcher@wsj.com

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The QQQ Fund, Now a $250 Billion Behemoth, Turns 25 (2024)

FAQs

What is the price target for QQQ in 2024? ›

According to TipRanks' unique ETF analyst consensus, determined based on a weighted average of its holdings' analyst ratings, QQQ is a Moderate Buy. The Street's average price target of $491.81 implies an upside of about 17.4%.

What is the downside to investing in QQQ? ›

The QQQ ETF offers buy-and-hold investors low expenses and long-term growth potential with enough diversification to avoid the risks of betting on one company. On the downside, long-term investors in QQQ must deal with sector risk, possible overvaluation, and the absence of small caps.

What is the 200 day moving average of QQQ? ›

What is QQQ's 200-day moving average? QQQ's 200-day moving average is 392.68, which suggests QQQ is a Buy.

What is the average return of QQQ? ›

Average Nasdaq 100 Returns Based on QQQ

Returns have been calculated based on TradingView charts. Since 1985 (39 years) the Nasdaq 100 has produced an annualized return of 13.65% (not including dividends).

Is QQQ a buy or sell in 2024? ›

A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Friday, April 19, 2024, and so far it has risen 2.51%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found.

How much will QQQ be worth in 10 years? ›

Invesco QQQ stock price stood at $418.82

According to the latest long-term forecast, Invesco QQQ price will hit $450 by the end of 2024 and then $500 by the middle of 2025. Invesco QQQ will rise to $600 within the year of 2027, $700 in 2028, $800 in 2030, $900 in 2032 and $1000 in 2035.

Is QQQ a good long term hold? ›

The QQQ gained 18.1% annually over the past 10 years. That tops all of the nearly 300 ETFs in the category. That easily outpaces the 12.6% average annual gain of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) — the cornerstone of most investors' portfolios. And the QQQ is cheap, only charging 0.2%.

Should I hold QQQ long term? ›

QQQ appears to be the single best long-term investment option for investors seeking total returns due to its ability to expose holders to top U.S. companies on an ongoing basis. The Nasdaq 100 has consistently outperformed the S&P 500 in terms of total returns, making it a favorable choice for long-term investors.

What is the best ETF to invest in 2024? ›

Best ETFs as of April 2024
TickerFund name5-year return
SOXXiShares Semiconductor ETF30.70%
XLKTechnology Select Sector SPDR Fund24.57%
IYWiShares U.S. Technology ETF24.09%
FTECFidelity MSCI Information Technology Index ETF22.79%
1 more row
Mar 29, 2024

Should you buy a stock below its 200-day moving average? ›

The line drawn from those numbers shows the trend of a stock over a long duration. It is not meant for short-term or momentum trading. A simple trading strategy would be to buy shares that are above their 200-day line and sell them when they dip below.

What happens when a stock hits its 200-day moving average? ›

On the other hand, if the stock breaks above the 200-day moving average, it indicates a bullish trend. This means that the trend may be moving up as investors have more confidence in the stock and consider buying.

How do you trade a 50-day moving average? ›

A trader can calculate the 50-day moving average by moving average over 50 days by adding up the closing prices from the last ten weeks and divide the sum by the total number of days that is 50 [(Day 1 + Day 2 + Day 3 + ... + Day 49 + Day 50)/50].

What is the return of QQQ in 2024? ›

QQQ 1 Year Total Returns (Daily): 30.97% for April 19, 2024.

Does QQQ pay dividends? ›

QQQ Dividend Information

QQQ has a dividend yield of 0.63% and paid $2.64 per share in the past year. The dividend is paid every three months and the last ex-dividend date was Mar 18, 2024.

What is the highest return ETF in the last 10 years? ›

The best-performing ETF in the last 10 years was VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH).

What is the 5-year price prediction for QQQ? ›

Invesco Exchange-Traded Fund Trust II - Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF quote is equal to 170.650 USD at 2024-04-22. Based on our forecasts, a long-term increase is expected, the "QQQM" stock price prognosis for 2029-04-13 is 430.013 USD. With a 5-year investment, the revenue is expected to be around +151.99%.

What is the price of QQQ in 2040? ›

Invesco QQQ Trust Defichain Long-term Price Prediction
YearAverage Price (USD)Change from today's price
2035$307.07+19.77%
2040$580.74+126.51%
2045$311.73+21.58%
2050$1,305.87+409.34%
7 more rows

How much will QQQ cost in 2050? ›

In 2050, according to our technical analysis, Mirrored Invesco QQQ Trust's projected minimum and maximum prices are approximately $9.59 and $7,130.08, respectively. The anticipated average trading cost stands at about $7,082.55.

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