The Impact of the Global Economy on the S&P 500® (2024)

In this paper, we examine the geographic revenue distribution of the S&P 500 and see what, if any, impact foreign economies and geographically driven market events may have on overall index performance.

We examine a recent market event, the 2016 U.S. election, as a case study. To aid in the analysis, we use two stylized portfolios based on geographic revenue data. The time period studied is from Election Day (Nov. 8, 2016) to year-end 2017, a period of robust performance and record highs for the S&P 500.

We review the performance of companies in the index through the lens of geographic revenue information. To decompose the performance, we first investigate the potential impact that currency movements may have using the U.S. Dollar Index performance and the Northfield U.S. Macroeconomic Risk Model. We then take a closer look at the individual GICS® sectors and run sector-driven performance attributions of the stylized portfolios.

Introduction - The S&P 500 has Global Exposure

The S&P 500 is widely considered to be one of the best single gauges for the U.S. equity market. Composed of 500 companies that are domiciled in the U.S., the index captures approximately 82%1 of the total U.S. equity market value. An index of U.S. companies may lead one to initially assume that the index is exclusively dependent on the health of the U.S. economy. In reality, the index is more global than one may think. Many U.S. corporations have a global presence, with assets and revenues in or from foreign countries. Therefore, certain global events can have a material effect on S&P 500 companies and overall index performance.

To better understand where S&P 500 companies’ revenues are coming from, the FactSet Geographic Revenue Exposure (GeoRevTM) dataset was used.2 This dataset gives a geographic breakdown of revenues for all companies with available data. This data showed that nearly 71%3 of S&P 500 revenues came from the U.S., while the remaining came from foreign markets. Internationally, the largest individual countries by total revenue percentage included China (4.3%), Japan (2.6%), and the UK (2.5%).

The Impact of the Global Economy on the S&P 500® (2024)

FAQs

What is the impact of the global economy on the S&P 500? ›

The results may come as a surprise; in a period when the S&P 500 returned 27.9%,8 an index with the majority of revenue coming from overseas outperformed a U.S.-centric index. In a period when the S&P 500 returned 27.9%, an index with the majority of revenue coming from overseas outperformed a U.S.- centric index.

What does the S&P 500 tell us about the economy? ›

The S&P 500 is an index that tracks the stock market's performance based on the share price fluctuations of 500 of the largest companies in the United States. It's a weighted index based on market cap, which means more valuable companies have a greater influence on the index's direction.

What impacts the S&P 500? ›

The S&P 500 index is weighted by market capitalization (share price times number of shares outstanding). This means that a company's valuation determines how much influence it has over the index's performance.

How global is the S&P 500? ›

The 500 companies in the S&P 500 comprise “approximately 80% of the US equity market capitalization and over 50% of the global equity market,” according to S&P Dow Jones Indices, which is a division of S&P Global.

How does the stock market influence the global economy? ›

Business Investment: During bull markets, companies can sell stock to raise capital, which can then be deployed to acquire assets or competitors. Increased business investment leads to higher economic output and generates more employment.

What happens to the S&P 500 during inflation? ›

When examining S&P 500 returns by decade and adjusting for inflation, the results show the highest real returns occur when inflation is 2% to 3%. Inflation greater than or less than this range tends to signal a U.S. macroeconomic environment with larger issues that have varying impacts on stocks.

Why is the S&P 500 important? ›

The S&P 500 is a broad-based stock market index, consisting of the 500 largest US public companies. The diversity and size of the companies it tracks make the S&P a proxy for the entire stock market. You can use the index as a reference point to gauge performance of other assets.

Why the S&P 500 is the best investment? ›

The S&P 500 is generally considered one of the most reliable indicators of the overall health and direction of the US stock market. Investors and analysts use the S&P 500 as a benchmark to gauge the performance of their investment portfolios, as well as the general state of the US economy.

Why is S&P 500 so successful? ›

The S&P is a float-weighted index, meaning the market capitalizations of the companies in the index are adjusted by the number of shares available for public trading. Because of its depth and diversity, the S&P 500 is widely considered one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks, and even the entire equities market.

What drives S&P 500 returns? ›

Individual stocks within the S&P 500 are weighted by market capitalization, a measure of a company's total dollar market value. Consequently, larger market-cap companies hold a larger allocation within the index and thus have a greater influence on index performance.

How does S&P Global make money? ›

When a global bond is issued, S&P Ratings earns revenue by charging the issuer to rate the creditworthiness of its bond for investors. A corporate, such as Microsoft, must get a new rating each time they raise capital, including for M&A. A bond is practically worthless without at least one recognised rating.

What percent of S&P 500 revenue is international? ›

The overall 2018 results show that foreign sales as a percentage of total S&P 500 sales decreased to 42.90% from 43.62% in 2017 (2016 was 43.16%, 2015 was 44.35%, and 2014 was 47.82%).

What is the difference between sp500 and S&P Global? ›

Global index funds tend to have a roughly 60% allocation to US shares. So you don't miss out on US shares by investing in them over the S&P 500 – You just get less exposure. For example, if you invested $100 in a S&P 500 index fund, $100 will go towards US shares.

What happens to the stock market in a global recession? ›

During a recession, the stock market is volatile as share prices go through extreme swings due to investors reacting to both positive and negative news. Many investors will start to sell shares to liquidate assets and hold on to cash if they fear further portfolio losses.

What is the correlation between GDP and sp500? ›

We find that the S&P 500 is weakly correlated with real GDP as well as with vintage GDP releases contemporaneous, but more strongly and statistically significantly with one lag as theory predicts.

Is the S&P 500 global or US? ›

The S&P 500 is an index that tracks American companies, however most of these companies are global companies, just are based in America. The all-world is a global fund tracking basically the world.

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