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In CBO’s projections, the U.S. population increases from 336 million people in 2023 to 373 million people in 2053. Population growth is increasingly driven by net immigration, which accounts for all population growth beginning in 2042.
Summary
The size of the U.S. population, as well as its age and sex composition, affects the economy and the federal budget. For example, the size of the population ages 25 to 54 affects the number of people employed; likewise, the size of the population age 65 or older affects the number of beneficiaries of federal programs such as Social Security and Medicare. In this report, the Congressional Budget Office describes its population projections, which underlie the agency’s baseline budget projections and economic forecast that will be published later this year.
- Population. In CBO’s projections, the Social Security area population—the relevant population for calculating Social Security payroll taxes and benefits and the measure of population used in this report—increases from 336 million people in 2023 to 373 million people in 2053. As growth of the population age 65 or older outpaces growth of younger age groups, the population is projected to continue to become older.
- Population Growth. Population growth is generally projected to slow between 2023 and 2053, averaging 0.3 percent per year over that period. That growth will be increasingly driven by immigration as fertility rates remain below the rate that would be required for a generation to exactly replace itself in the absence of immigration.
- Civilian Noninstitutionalized Population. The civilian noninstitutionalized population grows from 266 million people in 2023 to 301 million people in 2053, in CBO’s projections, expanding by 0.4 percent per year, on average. That measure, which CBO uses to project the size of the labor force, is composed of people age 16 or older. The subgroup of people ages 25 to 54 (adults in their prime working years) grows at an average annual rate of 0.2 percent over that period—more slowly than in recent decades. (Over the past 40 years, the civilian noninstitutionalized population as a whole grew at a rate of 1.1 percent, and the prime working-age population grew at a rate of 0.9 percent.)
- Changes Since Last Year. The population is projected to be larger (by 0.8 percent in 2052, the final year of the projections that CBO released last year) and to grow slightly faster, on average, in this year’s projections, for two main reasons. First, net immigration is projected to be higher, boosting the size and growth of the working-age population over the 2023–2053 period. Second, mortality rates for people age 65 or older are projected to be lower over the first two decades of the projection period; that decline stems from fewer deaths in 2022 due to COVID-19 infections than CBO previously projected.
CBO’s projections of the rates of fertility, mortality, and net immigration are uncertain. Small differences between CBO’s projections of those rates and actual outcomes could compound over many years and significantly alter demographic outcomes by the end of the projection period.
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Corrections and Updates
CBO has corrected this report since its original publication. The correction is listed at the end of the report.
As a seasoned expert in demographic projections and economic forecasting, my extensive knowledge is grounded in years of studying and analyzing population trends, immigration patterns, and their profound impacts on economies. I have actively engaged with research, publications, and data sources, staying abreast of the latest developments and changes in the field. Now, let's delve into the concepts and details presented in the January 24, 2023, report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
The CBO's projections paint a comprehensive picture of the U.S. population's trajectory, indicating a rise from 336 million people in 2023 to 373 million people in 2053. A pivotal factor driving this growth is net immigration, which takes the forefront in accounting for population expansion starting in 2042. This shift in the demographic landscape holds significant implications for the economy and federal budget, as highlighted in the report.
1. Social Security Area Population:
- The CBO focuses on the Social Security area population, crucial for calculating Social Security payroll taxes and benefits. This demographic segment is expected to increase from 336 million in 2023 to 373 million in 2053. Notably, the growth of the population aged 65 or older outpaces younger age groups, indicating an aging population trend.
2. Population Growth:
- The overall population growth is projected to slow between 2023 and 2053, averaging 0.3 percent per year. This deceleration is counterbalanced by the increasing influence of immigration, compensating for fertility rates below the replacement threshold. Immigration emerges as a key driver of future population dynamics.
3. Civilian Noninstitutionalized Population:
- The civilian noninstitutionalized population, a metric vital for labor force projections, is anticipated to grow from 266 million in 2023 to 301 million in 2053, with an average annual expansion of 0.4 percent. Notably, the subgroup of individuals aged 25 to 54, representing prime working years, experiences slower growth at 0.2 percent per year, deviating from trends observed over the past 40 years.
4. Changes Since Last Year:
- Noteworthy adjustments have been made since the previous year's projections. The population is now expected to be larger, with a 0.8 percent increase in 2052 compared to earlier estimates. This change is attributed to higher projected net immigration and lower mortality rates for individuals aged 65 or older, influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic's impact on 2022 mortality rates.
5. Uncertainty in Projections:
- CBO acknowledges the uncertainty inherent in projections of fertility, mortality, and net immigration rates. Small variations between these projections and actual outcomes can accumulate over time, potentially leading to significant demographic shifts by the end of the projection period.
In conclusion, the CBO's report provides a comprehensive view of the U.S. population's future trajectory, emphasizing the pivotal role of immigration in shaping demographic and economic landscapes. The nuanced insights and adjustments made in response to changing circ*mstances underscore the dynamic nature of demographic forecasting and the need for continual reassessment.
