The 4% pension rule to retire comfortably (2024)

Moving from the contribution to withdrawal stage of retirement saving is a major milestone.

Deciding how and when to start taking money from your pension pot can influence how long the money lasts and ultimately the lifestyle you will have during your golden years.

As well as enjoying your hard-earned retirement pot, money still needs to be available for bills and possibly your own long-term care.

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Understanding when to retire, and how much money to take out of your pension to give you a reliable stream of income, is crucial.

That is especially important as the cost of retirement is rising.

Research from the Pensions and Lifetime Savings Association suggests retirees need an income of £43,100 per year for a 'comfortable retirement.'

Can applying the 4% pension rule help? We explain what it is and how it works.

What is the 4% pension rule?

A popular rule for pension savers is to take 4% of the value of their fund in the first year of withdrawals and increase that by the rate of inflation each year. This is supposed to last a typical retiree 30 years.

Academics at the American Association of Individual Investors devised the 4% rule in 1998 after researching a sustainable withdrawal rate for a retirement pot that wouldn’t deplete the savings.

It looked at data from 1926 to 1995 and found that a rate of 3-4% is “extremely unlikely to exhaust any portfolio of stocks and bonds".

Can I rely solely on the 4% rule?

Like all rules of thumb, says John Corbyn, pensions specialist at the wealth manager Quilter, the 4% concept is based on certain assumptions.

“It needsto be overlaid with someone’s state of health and propensity to spend which is likely to be higher for younger clients and lower for older clients,” he says.

“Care needs to be taken to ensure the attitude to risk and propensity for loss is also built into these assumptions.

“Depending on your risk tolerance, investment strategy, and the actual returns you get, you might consider a slightly more conservative withdrawal rate.

Corbyn says it is crucial to continuously review and adjust your strategy based on your actual investment returns, spending needs, and the broader economic landscape.

“Ultimately, pensions are a long-term savings vehicle and potentially may need to pay for someone’s income for up to 30-40 years, and care needs to be taken if the fund is accessed early as short-term gain may lead to long-term pain so getting advice is key,” he adds.

Joshua Gerstler, chartered financial planner for The Orchard Practice, says that while the 4% rule is a good guide, in reality our spending patterns are not linear.

“We might want to spend more in the early years of retirement, for example, to travel around the world,” he says.

“Our spending may slow down as we get older and are less able to get out and about. Albeit this could be offset by an increase in care fees. If you have a financial plan then you will have a good idea of how much you can access without ever running out of money.”

It’s important to note that this strategy may not work for everyone and is just one of many factors to consider when retiring.

Make a retirement plan

What you plan to do with your retirement will also have a huge impact on when you should start accessing your pension pot, so it's a good idea to know what you want to do and the costs of doing it.

“If you have dreams of travelling the world then you might need much more retirement income than if you are content with a quiet life at home,” says Corbyn.

“It's essential to have a realistic projection of your monthly and yearly expenses, including contingencies for unexpected costs.

“Financial planners can help produce cashflow models that look at your holistic finances and show you how much you can expect to have and what kind of retirement lifestyle that will buy you.”

The importance of timing when retiring

You can’t help when you were born but it is worth thinking about when you start accessing your pension pot as market returns will have an influence on the success of the 4% rule.

Investment firm Fidelity recently attempted to see if the 4% rule had stood the test of time.

One major factor was timing.

It looked at the value of two £100,000 funds after 15 years – one starting in 2000 and one in 2003.

Despite there being just three years between their start points, the pot beginning in 2003 grew to be more than two-and-a-half times bigger than the pot beginning in 2000.

This is because the pot being accessed in 2000 was hit by the dotcom boom, so there wasn’t an opportunity to make up for these losses, while the 2003 pot benefited from the post-crash recovery.

Ed Monk of Fidelity suggests building flexibility into the strategy so you can avoid the worst time to sell your investments.

“Another tactic is to tweak your withdrawals in periods of falling markets so that you take just the income that is produced naturally from investments,” he says.

“This might include the dividends from company shares, income from funds or the interest from bonds. This might mean a lower level of income overall, but it means you won’t need to sell assets when their price has fallen.”

If you're retiring in a period of economic downturn, adds Corbyn, it may be wise to be more conservative with withdrawals, at least initially.

Gerstler suggests it is also important to consider other savings and investments held outside of pensions as part of your whole retirement strategy.

Don’t forget about tax

Whatever rule you use, experts say it is always important to consider the tax implications.

This is because beyond the 25% tax-free lump sum, you will need to pay income tax on withdrawals if you are earning above the personal allowance.

It may not take much to go above the £12,570 allowance, given the state pension is currently at £10,600 a year and set to rise to £11,500 from April 2024.

“Tax planning is a crucial aspect of accessing a pension, and those who are thinking for instance of buying an annuity or accessing a pension flexibly by withdrawing taxable amounts should take note if they are earning or taking taxable income from elsewhere, including the state pension,” says Alice Haine, personal finance analyst at the investment platform Bestinvest.

“For someone drawing the full flat-rate state pension at the moment, additional income – whether from work or a private pension - of more than £1,970 a year will take them over the personal allowance and into basic-rate tax.

“For those with larger pensions or higher incomes, there will be the potential risk of being taken into the higher or even additional-rate tax brackets, and some savers in drawdown should moderate their pension income to avoid this.”

The 4% pension rule to retire comfortably (2024)

FAQs

The 4% pension rule to retire comfortably? ›

What is the 4% pension rule? A popular rule for pension savers is to take 4% of their fund in the first year of withdrawals and increase that by the rate of inflation each year. This is supposed to last a typical retiree 30 years.

Is the 4 percent rule still relevant for retirees? ›

Retirees who are depending on their savings to fund essential expenses would want to have a conservative approach. However, those who have can withstand more market fluctuations may have more flexibility with withdrawal rates. For those retirees, the 4% rule likely will provide an outdated recommendation.

What is the 4 percent rule for pensions? ›

The 4% rule for retirement budgeting suggests that a retiree withdraw 4% of the balance in their retirement account(s) in the first year after retiring, and then withdraw the same dollar amount, adjusted for inflation, every year thereafter.

What is the Morningstar 4% rule? ›

The 4% rule suggests that retirees can safely withdraw 4% of their portfolio in the first year of retirement and then adjust that amount annually for inflation over the course of at least 30 years without having to worry about ever running out of money.

How long will money last using the 4% rule? ›

The risk of running out of money is an important risk to manage. But, if you're already retired or older than 65, your planning time horizon may be different. The 4% rule, in other words, may not suit your situation. It includes a very high level of confidence that your portfolio will last for a 30-year period.

What is the $1000 a month rule for retirement? ›

The $1,000 per month rule is a guideline to estimate retirement savings based on your desired monthly income. For every $240,000 you set aside, you can receive $1,000 a month if you withdraw 5% each year. This simple rule is a good starting point, but you should consider factors like inflation for long-term planning.

How much money do you need to retire with $100,000 a year income? ›

So, if you're aiming for $100,000 a year in retirement and also receiving Social Security checks, you'd need to have this amount in your portfolio: age 62: $2.1 million. age 67: $1.9 million. age 70: $1.8 million.

Who came up with the 4% rule for retirement? ›

William P. Bengen is a retired financial adviser who first articulated the 4% withdrawal rate ("Four percent rule") as a rule of thumb for withdrawal rates from retirement savings; it is eponymously known as the "Bengen rule".

Is the 4% retirement rule making a comeback? ›

Thanks to higher interest rates and bond yields, it is likely safe for new retirees to spend 4% of their nest eggs in their first year of retirement and then to adjust that amount for inflation in subsequent years, according to a new analysis from Morningstar released Monday.

How many people have $1,000,000 in retirement savings? ›

In fact, statistically, around 10% of retirees have $1 million or more in savings. The majority of retirees, however, have far less saved.

What is the 4% rule at 75? ›

The 4% Rule for Withdrawals

The 4% rule emerged in 1994 when advisor William Bengen found that a 50%-75% stock allocation could safely support 4% initial withdrawals, with subsequent annual increases for inflation, over 30-year retirements.

What is the safe withdrawal rate for retirees? ›

The safe withdrawal rate method tries to prevent worst-case scenarios from happening by advising retirees to take out only a small percentage of their assets each year, typically 3% to 4%. Knowing what safe withdrawal rate you'd like to use in retirement also informs how much you need to save during your working years.

What is the 4 percent rule for 500000? ›

That 4% number assumes it's 4% of your starting portfolio. So, you have a $500,000 portfolio, so 4% of that is $20,000 and you would spend that in year one. The next year you would spend the same amount adjusted by inflation. So, like as with Social Security, it would go up by the rate of inflation.

What is a good monthly retirement income? ›

Average Monthly Retirement Income

According to data from the BLS, average 2022 incomes after taxes were as follows for older households: 65-74 years: $63,187 per year or $5,266 per month. 75 and older: $47,928 per year or $3,994 per month.

What are the flaws of the 4% rule? ›

The biggest problem with the 4% rule is that life is almost never as simple as we'd all hope. There may be some years in retirement that you need more than the rule allows and some years that you need less. This could be caused by moving locations, health problems, or other life changes.

What percentage of retirees have $2 million dollars? ›

According to EBRI estimates based on the latest Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances, 3.2% of retirees have over $1 million in their retirement accounts, while just 0.1% have $5 million or more.

What are the alternatives to the 4 percent rule? ›

Alternatives to the 4% rule

— and fund the fixed portion by buying an immediate annuity that would provide guaranteed income for life. Variable expenses would be funded through portfolio drawdowns that would vary with market performance. Another variable approach to drawdowns uses required minimum distributions (RMDs).

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