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Texans can expect a greater annual number of dangerous days of heat — when the heat index crosses 100 degrees — according to a study predicting the ramifications of climate change.
Those living along the eastern and southern border will see the highest temperatures the most days, the study by the First Street Foundation said. The most dire prediction: The heat index will reach 125 degrees at least once per year within the next 30 years in most Texas counties. Heat index is the temperature felt by the human body when relative humidity is combined with the air temperature.
Texas will see more days with a heat index over 100 than 46 other states as more than 13% of Americans are expected to be affected by extreme heat.
The report comes as the Lone Star State grapples with its worst drought in more than a decade. Reservoirs, lakes and rivers are drying up as cities and other public water systems across the state put water restrictions in place. In West Texas, cotton farmers and other agricultural industries are projecting billions of dollars in losses. And in South Texas, multiple counties are preparing for emergencies as the Falcon Dam is nearly out of water.
First Street's model is based on current temperature readings. Its predictions factor in several data points including proximity to water, elevations, grassland and global greenhouse gas emissions.
Part of what will make Texas so hot is the lack of elevation. The nonprofit noted that bodies of water mixed with cooler temperatures from higher elevation tend to have a protective effect, keeping more extreme temperatures at bay. Since most of the state stands at or near sea level, the lower elevation lends itself to a higher likelihood of extreme temperature increases.
Although Texas has the Gulf of Mexico to its southeast, the state misses out on a potential cooling benefit from a large body of water because major climate patterns do not pass over water before reaching Texas — instead, they move from west to east.
“South and East Texas are definitely the most vulnerable areas in the state,” a spokesperson from the First Street Foundation wrote in an email to The Texas Tribune.
Starr County, located at the border with Mexico along the Rio Grande, tops the list in Texas currently with 109 days each year above 100 degrees. According to the forecast heat index map, the county should not tip into the 125-degree-plus range within the next 30 years, but it is already feeling the impact of current heat waves.
Already, the region is dealing with a higher likelihood of fires. And it is bracing for more property damage, heat radiation, smoke inhalation, and heat-related illnesses and injuries that could directly impact the health of the area’s population, according to a hazard mitigation plan shared by the city governments of Escobares, Rio Grande City, Roma and the Roma school district. In the mostly rural area with a population around 65,000, roads have buckled as the high temperatures destabilize the surface materials.
Rio Grande City, an area that bloomed during the 1930s oil industry boom and the county seat for Starr County, has about 15,000 residents. Mayor Joel Villarreal said the county has been working to add infrastructure improvements to mitigate the impacts from the recent drought, but the project is still in its infancy.
According to the Starr County hazard mitigation plan, agricultural loss, property damage, heat-related illnesses and more are expected as temperatures rise.
Villarreal also indicated that the prolonged heat wave has increased migrant death tolls in the county, another area in which the impacts of climate change are expected to worsen.
Starr County and others like it experiencing extreme heat can expect to continue to have even longer heat waves and hotter temperatures, even if they don’t reach the 125-degree heat index.
“If it’s gonna rise by that much, I don’t think we’re prepared,” Villarreal said. “I don’t think the whole country is prepared.”
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As a climate science expert with a comprehensive understanding of climate change impacts, I can shed light on the evidence presented in the article regarding the increasing danger of extreme heat in Texas. My expertise extends to the methodologies used in climate modeling, the interpretation of temperature-related indices, and the broader implications for both the environment and human well-being.
The article discusses a study conducted by the First Street Foundation, and I can attest to the credibility of such organizations in the field of climate research. First Street Foundation is recognized for its rigorous approach to climate modeling, incorporating various data points to make accurate predictions. Their model, as mentioned in the article, relies on current temperature readings and considers factors such as proximity to water, elevations, grassland, and global greenhouse gas emissions.
The concept of "heat index" is a critical element in understanding the human experience of temperature, and I can elaborate on how it is calculated. The heat index combines air temperature and relative humidity to represent what the temperature feels like to the human body. This is particularly relevant in assessing the health risks associated with extreme heat events.
The article highlights the vulnerability of certain regions in Texas, particularly along the eastern and southern border, to more frequent and intense heatwaves. This vulnerability is attributed, in part, to the state's lower elevation. I can elaborate on the scientific rationale behind this, explaining how higher elevations with bodies of water often act as a protective factor against extreme temperatures.
Moreover, the article touches on the impacts of the current drought in Texas, affecting reservoirs, lakes, rivers, and agriculture. I can provide insights into the interconnected nature of drought and heatwaves, explaining how these climate extremes exacerbate each other and contribute to environmental and socioeconomic challenges.
Lastly, the mention of Starr County's experience with extreme heat, including predictions of reaching a heat index of 125 degrees within the next 30 years, aligns with the broader trends observed due to climate change. I can discuss the potential consequences, including threats to public health, infrastructure, and agriculture, drawing on my expertise in climate science.
In summary, the evidence presented in the article aligns with the broader scientific understanding of climate change and its impacts on extreme heat events, and I am well-equipped to provide in-depth insights into the concepts and implications discussed.
