Taking the 60/40 portfolio to 75/25 (2024)

The 60/40 portfolio has one of the best track records over the past 50 years. It has had positive returns 82 percent of the time over rolling one-year periods, 93 percent of the time over rolling three-year periods, and 99.4 percent of the time over rolling five-year periods. The returns were driven not just by stocks, but also by bonds, which had an average annual return of 7.5 percent from 1976–2019.

Over the past 44 years, it gained over 7,000 percent, and had a maximum drawdown of just 30 percent. But that was then, and this is now.

The average 10-year yield over this time was 6.2 percent. Today it’s 0.69 percent, which is why it is impossible, not unlikely, impossible that forward returns will match those of the past.

For one thing, I don’t think anybody in their right mind is expecting large cap U.S. stocks to deliver double-digit returns given their recent performance and current valuation. More importantly, what makes this performance impossible to replicate is the fact that bonds are now, in all likelihood, going to give you returns of less than 2 percent a year.

It’s for this reason that Jeremy Siegel suggests the 75/25 portfolio is the new 60/40 portfolio. Unfortunately, even a portfolio that takes on more risk is highly unlikely to match the returns we’ve seen in the past.

A simple way to think about where stock market performance comes from is to break it down into three variables — the earnings yield (inverse of the P/E ratio), the dividend yield, and the change in multiple.

Using the S&P 500 as a proxy for stocks, the earnings yield and dividend yield get you roughly to a 6 percent rate of return. The change in multiples is the ultimate wild card here, but I can’t with a straight face say that we should expect to see this expand or contribute to returns over the next 10 years. Said differently, if I had to bet, I’d say that multiple compression will be a drag on returns. For this exercise let’s generously assume that the multiple remains unchanged. Using this admittedly naive model, we’ll use 6 percent as an approximate rate of return for stocks.

Bonds are a much simpler story. The best predictor of future bond returns are current rates. Let’s use 2 percent, which is more than a little generous here.

Putting this altogether, a 60/40 portfolio gets you a 4.6 percent return, significantly lower than the 10.7 percent average annual return. Even using 75/25 bumps you up to a little over 5 percent, less than half the historical rate. With bonds doing 2 percent, allocating 75 percent of your portfolio to stocks, they would need to do 14 percent a year to achieve the 10.7 percent average annual return that a 60/40 portfolio delivered.

So what is an investor to do? You can consider stocks that haven’t performed as well, like value, emerging markets or foreign developed countries. You can consider other asset classes such as gold, commodities or bitcoin. You can consider other strategies like venture capital, private equity or private real estate. You can try to outperform the index.

All of these might help you outperform but, unfortunately, you won’t be the only investor with this idea in mind.

I wish there were easy solutions to this problem. There aren’t. This is the world we live in.

The best answer for most people, the answer that nobody, including myself, wants to hear, is to simply prepare for lower returns. Accepting lower returns is a better idea for most people than trying to bridge the gap by swinging for the fences.

Michael Batnick is the director of research at Ritholtz Wealth Management. The original version of his article can be read at this link: https://bit.ly/3hRjT8J

Taking the 60/40 portfolio to 75/25 (2024)

FAQs

Taking the 60/40 portfolio to 75/25? ›

The 60/40 allocation tends to be used the most, with 60% of a portfolio directed to stock holdings and 40% of the portfolio containing bonds. Then there is the 75/25 asset allocation. This strategy means the investor puts 75% of their capital into stocks and 25% into bonds.

What is the average return on a 60 40 portfolio? ›

The Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio is a High Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 2 ETFs. It's exposed for 60% on the Stock Market. In the last 30 Years, the Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio obtained a 7.93% compound annual return, with a 9.46% standard deviation.

Is 60 40 portfolio outdated? ›

In 2022, the traditional 60/40 portfolio suffered one of its worst years in history, as both stocks and bonds experienced significant losses. This outcome sparked a heated debate about the efficacy of the strategy going forward. Proponents of 60/40 argue that 2022 was an aberration and investors should not overreact.

What is the 75 25 rule for investments? ›

"the investor should never have less than 25% or more than 75% of his funds in common stocks."

What is the downside of a 60 40 portfolio? ›

Cons. May sacrifice returns: A 60/40 portfolio will typically outperform an all-equity portfolio while the stock market is down. However, equities tend to have better long-term returns than bonds. This means the 60/40 portfolio may sacrifice some returns for the sake of stability.

What is the 10 year return for 60 40? ›

But it helps to put this in perspective: The annualized return for the 10 years through 2022 was 6.1% for a globally diversified 60/40 portfolio. “The past decade has been a strong run for the 60/40,” said Todd Schlanger, a senior investment strategist at Vanguard.

Is a 70 30 portfolio risky? ›

Since, over time, stocks have the potential for both higher returns and higher risks, the 70 percent is more aggressive than a traditional 60/40 split. Over the very long-term period of 1926 to 2019, a 70/30 portfolio has an average return of 9.21 percent. For a long-term investor, that's a healthy appreciation.

What is the 70 20 10 Rule investing? ›

These buckets are designed to handle living costs and other monthly expenses without draining your bank account. Seventy percent of your income will go to monthly bills and everyday spending, 20% will go to saving and investing, and 10% will go to debt repayment or donation.

What is the $1000 a month Rule? ›

The math behind the $1000-a-month rule is simple. If you take 5% of a $240,000 retirement nest egg each year, that works out to $12,000/year, which, divided into 12 months, gives you $1000 each month.

What is the 50 20 30 Rule investing? ›

The 50/30/20 rule is a budgeting technique that involves dividing your money into three primary categories based on your after-tax income (i.e., your take-home pay): 50% to needs, 30% to wants and 20% to savings and debt payments.

What is the ideal portfolio for a 60 year old? ›

At age 60–69, consider a moderate portfolio (60% stock, 35% bonds, 5% cash/cash investments); 70–79, moderately conservative (40% stock, 50% bonds, 10% cash/cash investments); 80 and above, conservative (20% stock, 50% bonds, 30% cash/cash investments).

Will the 60 40 portfolio stage a comeback in 2023? ›

Bond yields are the highest they've been in 15 years, and stocks appear less expensive than before. The odds are now in favor of the balanced portfolio. Last year was bruising for investors across the board.

What is a safe withdrawal rate for 60 40 portfolio? ›

Success Rates Of Various Safe Withdrawal Rates

The 60/40 portfolio was the most successful in the study. Here are the success rates for a 60/40 portfolio: The 4% SWR — 17.4% failure rate. The 3.3% SWR — 11.1% failure rate.

What is the best portfolio balance by age? ›

The common rule of asset allocation by age is that you should hold a percentage of stocks that is equal to 100 minus your age. So if you're 40, you should hold 60% of your portfolio in stocks. Since life expectancy is growing, changing that rule to 110 minus your age or 120 minus your age may be more appropriate.

Why a 60 40 asset allocation is no longer reasonable for investors? ›

“You cannot invest in one future anymore; you have to invest in multiple futures,” Rice said. “The things that drove 60/40 portfolios to work are broken. The old 60/40 portfolio did the things that clients wanted, but those two asset classes alone cannot provide that anymore.

Who should have a 60 40 portfolio? ›

The investor who stands to benefit most from a 60/40 portfolio may be the one whose risk tolerance doesn't allow them to pursue a 100% equity allocation. “A 35-year-old investing for retirement has the ability to bear risk because she has a longer time horizon but may not have the willingness to do so,” Johnson said.

What will $10,000 be worth in 20 years? ›

With that, you could expect your $10,000 investment to grow to $34,000 in 20 years.

How to turn $100 K into $1 million in 5 years? ›

Consider investing in rental properties or real estate investment trusts (REIT). The real estate market is a fertile setting for a $100k investment to yield $1 million. And it's possible for this to happen between 5 to 10 years. You can achieve this if you continue to add new properties to your portfolio.

Can I live off interest on a million dollars? ›

Once you have $1 million in assets, you can look seriously at living entirely off the returns of a portfolio. After all, the S&P 500 alone averages 10% returns per year. Setting aside taxes and down-year investment portfolio management, a $1 million index fund could provide $100,000 annually.

Is 70 30 or 60 40 better for retirement? ›

In recent years, the 70/30 asset allocation has become more popular. But many investors still prefer a 60/40 portfolio based on lower risk tolerance. Essentially, this portfolio takes on more risk in exchange for higher returns.

Are 60 40 portfolios facing worst returns in 100 years? ›

LONDON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Investors with classic "60/40" portfolios are facing the worst returns this year for a century, BofA Global Research said in a note on Friday, noting that bond markets continue to see huge outflows.

Can you retire with a $500,000 portfolio? ›

With some planning, you can retire at 60 with $500k. Remember, however, that your lifestyle will significantly affect how long your savings will last. If you're content to live modestly and don't plan on significant life changes (like travel or starting a business), you can make your $500k last much longer.

What is 10 5 3 rule of investment? ›

The 10,5,3 rule

Though there are no guaranteed returns for mutual funds, as per this rule, one should expect 10 percent returns from long term equity investment, 5 percent returns from debt instruments. And 3 percent is the average rate of return that one usually gets from savings bank accounts.

What is the 80% investment rule? ›

The 80/20 rule can be effectively used to guard against risk when individuals put 80% of their money into safer investments, like savings bonds and CDs, and the remaining 20% into riskier growth stocks.

What is the 4 rule investing? ›

The 4% rule is easy to follow. In the first year of retirement, you can withdraw up to 4% of your portfolio's value. If you have $1 million saved for retirement, for example, you could spend $40,000 in the first year of retirement following the 4% rule.

Is $6,000 a month good for retirement? ›

But if you can supplement your retirement income with other savings or sources of income, then $6,000 a month could be a good starting point for a comfortable retirement.

How much money do you need to retire with $100000 a year income? ›

This means that if you make $100,000 shortly before retirement, you can start to plan using the ballpark expectation that you'll need about $75,000 a year to live on in retirement. You'll likely need less income in retirement than during your working years because: Most people spend less in retirement.

What is the $400 rule? ›

You usually must pay self-employment tax if you had net earnings from self-employment of $400 or more. Generally, the amount subject to self-employment tax is 92.35% of your net earnings from self-employment.

What is the 5 25 rule portfolio? ›

The 5/25 Rule

The “5” implies you have to rebalance any allocation that deviates from your portfolio by 5%. Conversely, the “25” represents smaller assets that constitute 5-10% of your investment. Rebalancing should only happen when an asset's share exceeds an absolute 5% or 25% of the initial target allocation.

What is the 50 15 5 rule? ›

50 - Consider allocating no more than 50 percent of take-home pay to essential expenses. 15 - Try to save 15 percent of pretax income (including employer contributions) for retirement. 5 - Save for the unexpected by keeping 5 percent of take-home pay in short-term savings for unplanned expenses.

What is the 90 100 rule stocks? ›

This strategy theorizes that when a stock reaches $90 per share, it tends to have a high probability of reaching $100 per share. Of course, not every stock that reaches the $90 level will trade up 10 points to reach $100.

Is a 60 40 portfolio aggressive? ›

The 60/40 portfolio is designed for moderate risk and moderate returns.

What are the pros and cons of a 60 40 portfolio? ›

The 60/40 portfolio investing strategy — where a portfolio consists of 60% stocks and 40% bonds — is a popular one, but it's not right for everyone. It carries less risk and is less volatile than a portfolio that contains only stocks, making it a traditionally safe choice for retirement accounts.

What is a typical 70 30 portfolio? ›

With a 70/30 investment portfolio, 70 percent of your capital is invested in stocks, and 30 percent is invested in fixed-income products, such as bonds, CDs, and fixed-income exchange-traded and mutual funds.

Will the market bounce back in 2023? ›

"In the first half of 2023, the S&P 500 is expected to re-test the lows of 2022, but a pivot from the Federal Reserve could drive an asset recovery later in the year, pushing the S&P 500 to 4,200 by year-end," the investment bank said in a research note.

Will market fall further in 2023? ›

Majority of the experts think consumer sentiment will see an uptick in 2023 and the Indian stock markets performance will be stellar in key areas including banking, automobiles, real estate and company stocks with strong fundamentals.

How much will the market drop in 2023? ›

As the Federal Reserve continues to tighten monetary policy into 2023, a 15 to 20 percent stock market crash will occur by the summer, according to E.B.

What is the Golden Butterfly portfolio? ›

The Golden Butterfly Portfolio is a balanced investment strategy that seeks to deliver steady, long-term growth by diversifying assets across multiple classes. It consists of 40% stocks, 40% bonds, and 20% commodities.

How safe is a 3% withdrawal rate? ›

Whereas last year's research suggested that a 3.3% withdrawal rate was a safe starting point for new retirees with balanced portfolios over a 30-year horizon, this year's research points to 3.8% as a safe starting withdrawal percentage, with annual inflation adjustments to those withdrawals thereafter.

What is the 3 rule in retirement? ›

As a result, retirement experts have downgraded the Four Percent Rule to the Three Percent Rule. In short, to enjoy a reasonably high expectation of not running out of money prior to death, you should never withdraw more than three percent of your initial portfolio value in retirement.

What is the expected return on a portfolio consisting of 40% in share A and 60% in share B? ›

The expected return on a portfolio composed of 40% stock A and 60% stock B is 21%.

What is the dividend for 60 40 portfolio? ›

The Dynamic 60/40 Income Portfolio granted a 2.82% dividend yield in 2022. It's a High Risk portfolio and it can be implemented with 5 ETFs.

What is a good average return on a portfolio? ›

A good return on investment is generally considered to be about 7% per year, based on the average historic return of the S&P 500 index, and adjusting for inflation.

What is the average return of the 70 30 portfolio? ›

In the last 30 Years, the Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 70/30 Portfolio obtained a 7.72% compound annual return, with a 10.60% standard deviation.

What is the average return of an 80 20 portfolio? ›

The Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Portfolio is a Very High Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 2 ETFs. It's exposed for 80% on the Stock Market. In the last 30 Years, the Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Portfolio obtained a 8.89% compound annual return, with a 12.33% standard deviation.

What is the difference between 70 30 and 60 40 portfolio? ›

The 60/40 rule is not very different from the 70/30 rule. The only difference here is that the exposure to equities stands at 60%, while the allocation to bonds stands at 40% exposure. Essentially, this rule gives greater importance to stability and is suitable for risk-averse individuals.

What should my portfolio look like at 60? ›

According to this principle, individuals should hold a percentage of stocks equal to 100 minus their age. So, for a typical 60-year-old, 40% of the portfolio should be equities. The rest would comprise high-grade bonds, government debt, and other relatively safe assets.

How big should portfolio be to get $1,000 in dividends? ›

To have a perfect portfolio to generate $1000/month in dividends, one should have at least 30 stocks in at least 10 different sectors. No stock should not be more than 3.33% of your portfolio. If each stock generates around $400 in dividend income per year, 30 of each will generate $12,000 a year or $1000/month.

How big of a portfolio do I need to live off dividends? ›

For example, say I need to earn $50,000 a year to live comfortably and my average dividend yield is 5%. So, I would need to own $50,000 / 0.05 = $1 million worth of shares to meet my income needs.

Is 50% a good return on investment? ›

ROI of 50% can be considered good, but there are other factors to consider to understand if your investment was a good one.

What is a realistic annual return on investment? ›

According to conventional wisdom, an annual ROI of approximately 7% or greater is considered a good ROI for an investment in stocks. This is also about the average annual return of the S&P 500, accounting for inflation. Because this is an average, some years your return may be higher; some years they may be lower.

What is the average 10 year return of the S&P 500? ›

Basic Info. S&P 500 10 Year Return is at 156.3%, compared to 161.0% last month and 215.4% last year. This is higher than the long term average of 112.6%.

How good is 20% return? ›

A 20% return is possible, but it's a pretty significant return, so you either need to take risks on volatile investments or spend more time invested in safer investments.

Is 13% return on investment good? ›

Most investors would view an average annual rate of return of 10% or more as a good ROI for long-term investments in the stock market.

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