Data Source: from January 1871 to November 2023 (~153 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 November 2023
Live Update: Dec 27 2023, 11:59AM Eastern Time
PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
0.22%
1 Day
Dec 27 2023, 11:59AM Eastern Time
4.91%
Current Month
December 2023
The Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio is a High Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 2 ETFs.
It's exposed for 60% on the Stock Market.
In the last 30 Years, the Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio obtained a 7.99% compound annual return, with a 9.61% standard deviation.
Table of contents
Asset Allocation and ETFs
The Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio has the following asset allocation:
60% Stocks
40% Fixed Income
0% Commodities
The Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:
| Weight (%) | Ticker | Currency | ETF Name | Investment Themes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60.00 | VTI | USD | Vanguard Total Stock Market | Equity, U.S., Large Cap |
| 40.00 | BND | USD | Vanguard Total Bond Market | Bond, U.S., All-Term |
Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.
Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Nov 30, 2023
The Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.
Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:
- no fees or capital gain taxes.
- a rebalancing of the components at every January 1st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
- the reinvestment of dividends.
December 2023 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the starting asset allocation.
STOCKS/BONDS 60/40 PORTFOLIO
Consolidated returns as of 30 November 2023
Live Update: Dec 27 2023, 11:59AM Eastern Time
Swipe left to see all data
| Chg (%) | Return (%) | Return (%) as of Nov 30, 2023 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Day | Time ET(*) | Dec 2023 | 1M | 6M | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | 30Y | MAX (~153Y) | |||
| Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio | 0.22 | 4.91 | 7.60 | 5.94 | 8.27 | 7.53 | 7.37 | 7.99 | 7.64 | |||
| US Inflation Adjusted return | 7.82 | 4.93 | 4.97 | 3.37 | 4.45 | 5.35 | 5.41 | |||||
| Components | ||||||||||||
VTI | USD | Vanguard Total Stock Market | 0.05 | 11:59AM, Dec 27 2023 | 5.60 | 9.42 | 10.04 | 12.72 | 11.71 | 11.16 | 9.90 | 9.08 |
BND | USD | Vanguard Total Bond Market | 0.47 | 11:59AM, Dec 27 2023 | 3.87 | 4.54 | -0.60 | 0.97 | 0.72 | 1.33 | 4.12 | 4.48 |
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1871
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Nov 2023. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.14% , 5Y: 4.03% , 10Y: 2.80% , 30Y: 2.51%
Live update: World Markets and Indexes
In 2022, the Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio granted a 1.69% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
Capital Growth as of Nov 30, 2023
An investment of 1$, since December 1993, now would be worth 10.05$, with a total return of 904.53% (7.99% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 4.77$, with a net total return of 376.99% (5.35% annualized).
An investment of 1$, since January 1871, now would be worth 77195.31$, with a total return of 7719430.94% (7.64% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 3135.87$, with a net total return of 313486.66% (5.41% annualized).
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Portfolio Metrics as of Nov 30, 2023
Metrics of Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio, updated as of 30 November 2023.
Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
- no fees or capital gain taxes.
- a rebalancing of the components at every January 1st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
- the reinvestment of dividends.
STOCKS/BONDS 60/40 PORTFOLIO
Advanced Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 November 2023 (~153 years)
Swipe left to see all data
| Metrics as of Nov 30, 2023 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX (~153Y) | |
| Investment Return (%) | 7.60 | 1.04 | 5.94 | 8.27 | 3.33 | 7.53 | 7.37 | 7.35 | 7.99 | 7.64 |
| Infl. Adjusted Return (%) details | 7.82 | 1.04 | 4.93 | 4.97 | -2.22 | 3.37 | 4.45 | 4.65 | 5.35 | 5.41 |
| US Inflation (%) | -0.20 | 0.01 | 0.96 | 3.14 | 5.67 | 4.03 | 2.80 | 2.58 | 2.51 | 2.12 |
| Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized. | ||||||||||
DRAWDOWN Inflation Adjusted: Inflation Adjusted: | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX | |||
| Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) | -7.47 | -20.69 | -20.69 | -20.69 | -30.55 | -30.55 | -62.03 | |||
| Start to Recovery (# months) details | 4* | 23* | 23* | 23* | 36 | 36 | 83 | |||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2023 08 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2007 11 | 2007 11 | 1929 09 | |||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 3 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 16 | 33 | |||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2023 10 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2009 02 | 2009 02 | 1932 05 | |||
| Bottom to End (# months) | 1 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 20 | 20 | 50 | |||
| End (yyyy mm) | - | - | - | - | 2010 10 | 2010 10 | 1936 07 | |||
| Longest Drawdown Depth (%) | same as deepest | same as deepest | same as deepest | same as deepest | same as deepest | -21.56 | same as deepest | |||
| Start to Recovery (# months) details | 41 | |||||||||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2023 08 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2007 11 | 2000 09 | 1929 09 | |||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 3 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 25 | 33 | |||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2023 10 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2009 02 | 2002 09 | 1932 05 | |||
| Bottom to End (# months) | 1 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 20 | 16 | 50 | |||
| End (yyyy mm) | - | - | - | - | 2010 10 | 2004 01 | 1936 07 | |||
| Longest negative period (# months) details | 9 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 63 | 110 | 154 | |||
| Period Start (yyyy mm) | 2023 02 | 2021 01 | 2021 01 | 2021 01 | 2003 12 | 2000 01 | 1929 09 | |||
| Period End (yyyy mm) | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 2009 02 | 2009 02 | 1942 06 | |||
| Annualized Return (%) | -1.11 | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.24 | -0.03 | -0.11 | |||
| Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress | ||||||||||
| Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) | -8.07 | -25.50 | -25.50 | -25.50 | -31.61 | -31.61 | -52.05 | |||
| Start to Recovery (# months) details | 4* | 23* | 23* | 23* | 38 | 38 | 71 | |||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2023 08 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2007 11 | 2007 11 | 1929 09 | |||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 3 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 16 | 33 | |||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2023 10 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2009 02 | 2009 02 | 1932 05 | |||
| Bottom to End (# months) | 1 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 22 | 22 | 38 | |||
| End (yyyy mm) | - | - | - | - | 2010 12 | 2010 12 | 1935 07 | |||
| Longest Drawdown Depth (%) | -3.14 | same as deepest | same as deepest | same as deepest | same as deepest | -25.12 | -38.92 | |||
| Start to Recovery (# months) details | 5 | 65 | 122 | |||||||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2023 02 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2007 11 | 2000 09 | 1973 01 | |||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 1 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 25 | 21 | |||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2023 02 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2009 02 | 2002 09 | 1974 09 | |||
| Bottom to End (# months) | 4 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 22 | 40 | 101 | |||
| End (yyyy mm) | 2023 06 | - | - | - | 2010 12 | 2006 01 | 1983 02 | |||
| Longest negative period (# months) details | 11 | 36* | 47 | 49 | 67 | 132 | 263 | |||
| Period Start (yyyy mm) | 2022 12 | 2020 12 | 2019 12 | 2018 09 | 2003 12 | 1998 03 | 1899 02 | |||
| Period End (yyyy mm) | 2023 10 | 2023 11 | 2023 10 | 2022 09 | 2009 06 | 2009 02 | 1920 12 | |||
| Annualized Return (%) | -2.87 | -2.22 | -0.51 | -0.04 | -0.29 | -0.30 | -0.12 | |||
| Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress | ||||||||||
RISK INDICATORS | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX | |||
| Standard Deviation (%) | 12.45 | 12.54 | 12.88 | 10.11 | 9.62 | 9.61 | 10.21 | |||
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.27 | 0.11 | 0.45 | 0.63 | 0.63 | 0.60 | 0.36 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.41 | 0.15 | 0.61 | 0.84 | 0.83 | 0.78 | 0.50 | |||
| Ulcer Index | 2.89 | 9.78 | 7.88 | 5.77 | 6.71 | 6.93 | 9.24 | |||
| Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation | 0.66 | 0.27 | 0.58 | 0.73 | 0.76 | 0.83 | 0.75 | |||
| Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown | 1.11 | 0.16 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.24 | 0.26 | 0.12 | |||
| % Positive Months details | 50% | 58% | 63% | 67% | 67% | 66% | 62% | |||
| Positive Months | 6 | 21 | 38 | 81 | 162 | 238 | 1147 | |||
| Negative Months | 6 | 15 | 22 | 39 | 78 | 122 | 688 | |||
LONG TERM RETURNS Inflation Adjusted: Inflation Adjusted: | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX | |||
| Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized | 7.37 | 11.56 | 11.56 | 15.69 | ||||||
| Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized | 6.28 | 1.34 | -0.01 | |||||||
| Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized | 4.45 | 9.63 | 9.63 | 14.69 | ||||||
| Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized | 3.86 | -1.21 | -4.21 | |||||||
ROLLING PERIOD RETURNS Inflation Adjusted: Inflation Adjusted: | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX | |||
| Over the latest 30Y | ||||||||||
| Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | 35.19 | 22.00 | 19.17 | 11.56 | 8.95 | 7.99 | ||||
| Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | -25.46 | -6.40 | -1.44 | 1.34 | 5.43 | |||||
| % Positive Periods | 81% | 90% | 99% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||||
| Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | 32.35 | 19.23 | 16.41 | 9.63 | 6.50 | 5.35 | ||||
| Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | -25.63 | -8.50 | -3.98 | -1.21 | 3.29 | |||||
| % Positive Periods | 77% | 80% | 93% | 97% | 100% | 100% | ||||
| Over all the available data source (Jan 1871 - Nov 2023) | ||||||||||
| Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | 83.44 | 28.79 | 23.38 | 15.69 | 14.69 | 12.20 | ||||
| Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | -44.89 | -25.23 | -8.90 | -0.01 | 3.15 | 3.74 | ||||
| % Positive Periods | 77% | 90% | 96% | 99% | 100% | 100% | ||||
| Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | 96.44 | 25.29 | 22.15 | 14.69 | 10.42 | 8.08 | ||||
| Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | -38.81 | -19.29 | -10.35 | -4.21 | -0.57 | 1.73 | ||||
| % Positive Periods | 70% | 81% | 87% | 91% | 99% | 100% | ||||
WITHDRAWAL RATES (WR) | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX | |||
| Safe WR (%) | 32.89 | 22.97 | 12.96 | 7.43 | 7.23 | 7.53 | ||||
| Perpetual WR (%) | 0.00 | 3.26 | 4.26 | 4.45 | 5.07 | 5.13 | ||||
Terms and Definitions
- Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio
- Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
- Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed
- Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean
- Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return
- Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation)
- Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio
- Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame
- Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
- Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the original portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money (dollar amount withdrawal).
- Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year, while retaining the inflation adjusted portfolio balance (percentage withdrawal).
Talking about withdrawal rates, how would you manage your early retirement with the Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio? Read more here
Analyze your Portfolio: Backtest Now!
Explore historical data since 1871 and fine-tune your investment strategy for better results.
Portfolio Components Correlation
Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.
Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS
Monthly correlations as of 30 November 2023
Swipe left to see all data
| Asset | VTI | BND |
|---|---|---|
VTI | - | 0.80 |
BND | 0.80 | - |
| Asset | VTI | BND |
|---|---|---|
VTI | - | 0.48 |
BND | 0.48 | - |
| Asset | VTI | BND |
|---|---|---|
VTI | - | 0.37 |
BND | 0.37 | - |
| Asset | VTI | BND |
|---|---|---|
VTI | - | 0.16 |
BND | 0.16 | - |
| Asset | VTI | BND |
|---|---|---|
VTI | - | 0.15 |
BND | 0.15 | - |
If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.
Drawdowns
A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.
STOCKS/BONDS 60/40 PORTFOLIO
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 November 2023 (~153 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period | Recovery period | Total | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months | Ulcer Index |
| -30.55% | Nov 2007 | Feb 2009 | 16 | Oct 2010 | 20 | 36 | 13.38 |
| -21.56% | Sep 2000 | Sep 2002 | 25 | Jan 2004 | 16 | 41 | 11.96 |
| -20.69% | Jan 2022 | Sep 2022 | 9 | in progress | 14 | 23 | 12.12 |
| -12.29% | Feb 2020 | Mar 2020 | 2 | Jul 2020 | 4 | 6 | 5.29 |
| -10.18% | Jul 1998 | Aug 1998 | 2 | Nov 1998 | 3 | 5 | 4.93 |
| -9.00% | May 2011 | Sep 2011 | 5 | Jan 2012 | 4 | 9 | 3.76 |
| -8.38% | Sep 2018 | Dec 2018 | 4 | Mar 2019 | 3 | 7 | 3.89 |
| -6.47% | Feb 1994 | Jun 1994 | 5 | Feb 1995 | 8 | 13 | 3.76 |
| -5.35% | Apr 2000 | May 2000 | 2 | Aug 2000 | 3 | 5 | 2.94 |
| -5.24% | Jun 2015 | Sep 2015 | 4 | Apr 2016 | 7 | 11 | 2.81 |
| -3.76% | Jul 1999 | Sep 1999 | 3 | Oct 1999 | 1 | 4 | 2.29 |
| -3.67% | Feb 2018 | Apr 2018 | 3 | Jul 2018 | 3 | 6 | 2.37 |
| -3.54% | Sep 2020 | Oct 2020 | 2 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 3 | 2.08 |
| -3.54% | May 2012 | May 2012 | 1 | Aug 2012 | 3 | 4 | 1.66 |
| -3.41% | May 2019 | May 2019 | 1 | Jun 2019 | 1 | 2 | 1.97 |
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period | Recovery period | Total | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months | Ulcer Index |
| -31.61% | Nov 2007 | Feb 2009 | 16 | Dec 2010 | 22 | 38 | 14.91 |
| -25.50% | Jan 2022 | Sep 2022 | 9 | in progress | 14 | 23 | 17.64 |
| -25.12% | Sep 2000 | Sep 2002 | 25 | Jan 2006 | 40 | 65 | 12.56 |
| -12.34% | Feb 2020 | Mar 2020 | 2 | Jul 2020 | 4 | 6 | 5.24 |
| -10.40% | Jul 1998 | Aug 1998 | 2 | Nov 1998 | 3 | 5 | 5.12 |
| -9.80% | May 2011 | Sep 2011 | 5 | Jan 2012 | 4 | 9 | 4.22 |
| -8.05% | Sep 2018 | Dec 2018 | 4 | Apr 2019 | 4 | 8 | 3.62 |
| -7.61% | Feb 1994 | Jun 1994 | 5 | Mar 1995 | 9 | 14 | 4.88 |
| -6.20% | Mar 2015 | Sep 2015 | 7 | Jul 2016 | 10 | 17 | 2.87 |
| -5.51% | Apr 2000 | May 2000 | 2 | Aug 2000 | 3 | 5 | 3.25 |
| -4.73% | Jul 1999 | Sep 1999 | 3 | Nov 1999 | 2 | 5 | 2.59 |
| -4.70% | Feb 2018 | Apr 2018 | 3 | Aug 2018 | 4 | 7 | 2.99 |
| -3.72% | Sep 2020 | Oct 2020 | 2 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 3 | 2.19 |
| -3.70% | Apr 2012 | May 2012 | 2 | Aug 2012 | 3 | 5 | 1.59 |
| -3.67% | Feb 1997 | Mar 1997 | 2 | May 1997 | 2 | 4 | 1.67 |
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period | Recovery period | Total | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months | Ulcer Index |
| -62.03% | Sep 1929 | May 1932 | 33 | Jul 1936 | 50 | 83 | 33.36 |
| -31.73% | Mar 1937 | Mar 1938 | 13 | Jan 1943 | 58 | 71 | 13.31 |
| -30.55% | Nov 2007 | Feb 2009 | 16 | Oct 2010 | 20 | 36 | 13.38 |
| -27.28% | Jan 1973 | Sep 1974 | 21 | Jan 1976 | 16 | 37 | 11.90 |
| -21.56% | Sep 2000 | Sep 2002 | 25 | Jan 2004 | 16 | 41 | 11.96 |
| -20.69% | Jan 2022 | Sep 2022 | 9 | in progress | 14 | 23 | 12.12 |
| -19.17% | Sep 1987 | Nov 1987 | 3 | Jan 1989 | 14 | 17 | 9.40 |
| -18.96% | Apr 1876 | Jun 1877 | 15 | Jul 1878 | 13 | 28 | 9.71 |
| -18.76% | Dec 1968 | Jun 1970 | 19 | Jan 1971 | 7 | 26 | 9.23 |
| -17.90% | Oct 1906 | Nov 1907 | 14 | Aug 1908 | 9 | 23 | 9.30 |
| -16.37% | Feb 1893 | Aug 1893 | 7 | May 1895 | 21 | 28 | 8.46 |
| -16.01% | Oct 1902 | Oct 1903 | 13 | Oct 1904 | 12 | 25 | 9.93 |
| -13.61% | Dec 1916 | Dec 1917 | 13 | Apr 1919 | 16 | 29 | 6.35 |
| -13.39% | Nov 1919 | Jun 1921 | 20 | Feb 1922 | 8 | 28 | 8.21 |
| -13.30% | Jun 1946 | Nov 1946 | 6 | Sep 1949 | 34 | 40 | 8.06 |
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period | Recovery period | Total | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months | Ulcer Index |
| -52.05% | Sep 1929 | May 1932 | 33 | Jul 1935 | 38 | 71 | 24.13 |
| -44.78% | Jan 1916 | Jul 1920 | 55 | Aug 1924 | 49 | 104 | 25.46 |
| -38.92% | Jan 1973 | Sep 1974 | 21 | Feb 1983 | 101 | 122 | 20.79 |
| -31.73% | Mar 1937 | Mar 1938 | 13 | Dec 1944 | 81 | 94 | 14.81 |
| -31.61% | Nov 2007 | Feb 2009 | 16 | Dec 2010 | 22 | 38 | 14.91 |
| -31.40% | Jun 1946 | Feb 1948 | 21 | Mar 1952 | 49 | 70 | 20.04 |
| -25.88% | Dec 1968 | Jun 1970 | 19 | Feb 1972 | 20 | 39 | 12.55 |
| -25.50% | Jan 2022 | Sep 2022 | 9 | in progress | 14 | 23 | 17.64 |
| -25.12% | Sep 2000 | Sep 2002 | 25 | Jan 2006 | 40 | 65 | 12.56 |
| -22.76% | Feb 1906 | Oct 1907 | 21 | Nov 1908 | 13 | 34 | 10.96 |
| -19.87% | Sep 1987 | Nov 1987 | 3 | Jun 1989 | 19 | 22 | 10.19 |
| -19.50% | Jul 1901 | Feb 1904 | 32 | Feb 1905 | 12 | 44 | 11.14 |
| -18.28% | Jul 1911 | Oct 1914 | 40 | Oct 1915 | 12 | 52 | 9.31 |
| -18.19% | Jul 1876 | May 1877 | 11 | Jan 1878 | 8 | 19 | 10.75 |
| -16.49% | Feb 1899 | Dec 1899 | 11 | Jan 1901 | 13 | 24 | 9.91 |
Rolling Returns
( more details)
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
STOCKS/BONDS 60/40 PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 November 2023 (~153 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
Swipe left to see all data
| Rolling Period | Worst Period | 15th Percentile | 50th Percentile | 85th Percentile | Best Period | Latest | Negative Periods | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ann. Return | From To | Growth of 1$ | Ann. Return | Growth of 1$ | Ann. Return | Growth of 1$ | Ann. Return | Growth of 1$ | Ann. Return | From To | Growth of 1$ | |||
| 1Y | -25.46 | 03/2008 02/2009 | 0.74$ | -2.67 | 0.97$ | 10.08 | 1.10$ | 17.65 | 1.17$ | 35.19 | 03/2009 02/2010 | 1.35$ | 8.27 | 18.62% |
| 2Y | -13.47 | 03/2007 02/2009 | 0.74$ | -0.39 | 0.99$ | 8.89 | 1.18$ | 15.82 | 1.34$ | 25.48 | 03/2009 02/2011 | 1.57$ | -2.19 | 15.73% |
| 3Y | -6.40 | 03/2006 02/2009 | 0.82$ | 1.88 | 1.05$ | 8.59 | 1.28$ | 14.03 | 1.48$ | 22.00 | 04/1995 03/1998 | 1.81$ | 3.33 | 9.54% |
| 5Y | -1.44 | 03/2004 02/2009 | 0.93$ | 3.31 | 1.17$ | 7.50 | 1.43$ | 11.92 | 1.75$ | 19.17 | 01/1995 12/1999 | 2.40$ | 7.53 | 0.66% |
| 7Y | 0.82 | 03/2002 02/2009 | 1.05$ | 4.95 | 1.40$ | 7.20 | 1.62$ | 9.83 | 1.92$ | 13.27 | 07/1994 06/2001 | 2.39$ | 7.82 | 0.00% |
| 10Y | 1.34 | 03/1999 02/2009 | 1.14$ | 5.09 | 1.64$ | 7.53 | 2.06$ | 9.76 | 2.53$ | 11.56 | 03/2009 02/2019 | 2.98$ | 7.37 | 0.00% |
| 15Y | 5.21 | 09/2000 08/2015 | 2.14$ | 5.93 | 2.37$ | 7.10 | 2.79$ | 8.00 | 3.17$ | 9.36 | 12/2008 11/2023 | 3.82$ | 9.36 | 0.00% |
| 20Y | 5.43 | 04/2000 03/2020 | 2.88$ | 6.41 | 3.46$ | 7.45 | 4.20$ | 8.18 | 4.81$ | 8.95 | 12/1994 11/2014 | 5.55$ | 7.35 | 0.00% |
| 30Y | 7.99 | 12/1993 11/2023 | 10.04$ | 7.99 | 10.04$ | 7.99 | 10.04$ | 7.99 | 10.04$ | 7.99 | 12/1993 11/2023 | 10.04$ | 7.99 | 0.00% |
| Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods | ||||||||||||||
Swipe left to see all data
| Rolling Period | Worst Period | 15th Percentile | 50th Percentile | 85th Percentile | Best Period | Latest | Negative Periods | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ann. Return | From To | Growth of 1$ | Ann. Return | Growth of 1$ | Ann. Return | Growth of 1$ | Ann. Return | Growth of 1$ | Ann. Return | From To | Growth of 1$ | |||
| 1Y | -25.63 | 03/2008 02/2009 | 0.74$ | -4.58 | 0.95$ | 7.64 | 1.07$ | 15.32 | 1.15$ | 32.35 | 03/2009 02/2010 | 1.32$ | 4.97 | 22.35% |
| 2Y | -15.26 | 03/2007 02/2009 | 0.71$ | -3.42 | 0.93$ | 6.41 | 1.13$ | 13.27 | 1.28$ | 22.87 | 03/2009 02/2011 | 1.50$ | -6.94 | 20.18% |
| 3Y | -8.50 | 04/2000 03/2003 | 0.76$ | -0.99 | 0.97$ | 6.33 | 1.20$ | 11.40 | 1.38$ | 19.23 | 04/1995 03/1998 | 1.69$ | -2.22 | 19.08% |
| 5Y | -3.98 | 03/2004 02/2009 | 0.81$ | 0.87 | 1.04$ | 5.55 | 1.30$ | 9.60 | 1.58$ | 16.41 | 01/1995 12/1999 | 2.13$ | 3.37 | 6.31% |
| 7Y | -1.70 | 03/2002 02/2009 | 0.88$ | 2.22 | 1.16$ | 4.53 | 1.36$ | 7.93 | 1.70$ | 10.47 | 03/2009 02/2016 | 2.00$ | 4.17 | 1.81% |
| 10Y | -1.21 | 03/1999 02/2009 | 0.88$ | 2.53 | 1.28$ | 5.17 | 1.65$ | 7.62 | 2.08$ | 9.63 | 03/2009 02/2019 | 2.50$ | 4.45 | 2.90% |
| 15Y | 2.98 | 09/2000 08/2015 | 1.55$ | 3.50 | 1.67$ | 4.70 | 1.99$ | 5.73 | 2.30$ | 6.71 | 12/2008 11/2023 | 2.64$ | 6.71 | 0.00% |
| 20Y | 3.29 | 04/2000 03/2020 | 1.91$ | 4.16 | 2.25$ | 5.02 | 2.66$ | 5.80 | 3.08$ | 6.50 | 12/1994 11/2014 | 3.52$ | 4.65 | 0.00% |
| 30Y | 5.35 | 12/1993 11/2023 | 4.76$ | 5.35 | 4.76$ | 5.35 | 4.76$ | 5.35 | 4.76$ | 5.35 | 12/1993 11/2023 | 4.76$ | 5.35 | 0.00% |
| Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods | ||||||||||||||
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| Rolling Period | Worst Period | 15th Percentile | 50th Percentile | 85th Percentile | Best Period | Latest | Negative Periods | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ann. Return | From To | Growth of 1$ | Ann. Return | Growth of 1$ | Ann. Return | Growth of 1$ | Ann. Return | Growth of 1$ | Ann. Return | From To | Growth of 1$ | |||
| 1Y | -44.89 | 07/1931 06/1932 | 0.55$ | -3.40 | 0.96$ | 8.28 | 1.08$ | 19.71 | 1.19$ | 83.44 | 07/1932 06/1933 | 1.83$ | 8.27 | 22.75% |
| 2Y | -34.28 | 06/1930 05/1932 | 0.43$ | -0.04 | 0.99$ | 8.07 | 1.16$ | 16.19 | 1.35$ | 35.24 | 07/1932 06/1934 | 1.82$ | -2.19 | 15.12% |
| 3Y | -25.23 | 07/1929 06/1932 | 0.41$ | 1.83 | 1.05$ | 7.81 | 1.25$ | 14.34 | 1.49$ | 28.79 | 03/1933 02/1936 | 2.13$ | 3.33 | 9.39% |
| 5Y | -8.90 | 06/1927 05/1932 | 0.62$ | 3.09 | 1.16$ | 7.66 | 1.44$ | 12.88 | 1.83$ | 23.38 | 06/1932 05/1937 | 2.85$ | 7.53 | 3.43% |
| 7Y | -2.67 | 07/1925 06/1932 | 0.82$ | 4.06 | 1.32$ | 7.53 | 1.66$ | 11.96 | 2.20$ | 18.96 | 04/1980 03/1987 | 3.37$ | 7.82 | 0.74% |
| 10Y | -0.01 | 09/1929 08/1939 | 0.99$ | 4.55 | 1.56$ | 7.33 | 2.02$ | 11.25 | 2.90$ | 15.69 | 08/1982 07/1992 | 4.29$ | 7.37 | 0.06% |
| 15Y | 2.25 | 09/1881 08/1896 | 1.39$ | 5.30 | 2.16$ | 7.17 | 2.82$ | 10.57 | 4.51$ | 15.35 | 08/1982 07/1997 | 8.51$ | 9.36 | 0.00% |
| 20Y | 3.15 | 06/1912 05/1932 | 1.85$ | 5.57 | 2.95$ | 7.25 | 4.05$ | 10.13 | 6.88$ | 14.69 | 04/1980 03/2000 | 15.51$ | 7.35 | 0.00% |
| 30Y | 3.74 | 06/1902 05/1932 | 3.01$ | 5.75 | 5.34$ | 7.87 | 9.70$ | 9.88 | 16.87$ | 12.20 | 07/1970 06/2000 | 31.59$ | 7.99 | 0.00% |
| Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods | ||||||||||||||
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| Rolling Period | Worst Period | 15th Percentile | 50th Percentile | 85th Percentile | Best Period | Latest | Negative Periods | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ann. Return | From To | Growth of 1$ | Ann. Return | Growth of 1$ | Ann. Return | Growth of 1$ | Ann. Return | Growth of 1$ | Ann. Return | From To | Growth of 1$ | |||
| 1Y | -38.81 | 07/1931 06/1932 | 0.61$ | -6.48 | 0.93$ | 6.43 | 1.06$ | 18.76 | 1.18$ | 96.44 | 07/1932 06/1933 | 1.96$ | 4.97 | 29.93% |
| 2Y | -27.01 | 06/1930 05/1932 | 0.53$ | -2.92 | 0.94$ | 5.98 | 1.12$ | 14.26 | 1.30$ | 36.24 | 07/1932 06/1934 | 1.85$ | -6.94 | 23.34% |
| 3Y | -19.29 | 07/1929 06/1932 | 0.52$ | -0.93 | 0.97$ | 5.77 | 1.18$ | 12.31 | 1.41$ | 25.29 | 07/1932 06/1935 | 1.96$ | -2.22 | 18.11% |
| 5Y | -10.35 | 01/1916 12/1920 | 0.57$ | 0.40 | 1.02$ | 5.88 | 1.33$ | 10.88 | 1.67$ | 22.15 | 06/1932 05/1937 | 2.71$ | 3.37 | 12.84% |
| 7Y | -6.22 | 06/1913 05/1920 | 0.63$ | 1.42 | 1.10$ | 5.43 | 1.44$ | 9.90 | 1.93$ | 16.78 | 09/1921 08/1928 | 2.96$ | 4.17 | 9.36% |
| 10Y | -4.21 | 07/1911 06/1921 | 0.65$ | 1.71 | 1.18$ | 5.59 | 1.72$ | 9.10 | 2.38$ | 14.69 | 06/1920 05/1930 | 3.93$ | 4.45 | 8.62% |
| 15Y | -2.07 | 08/1905 07/1920 | 0.73$ | 2.33 | 1.41$ | 5.45 | 2.21$ | 8.15 | 3.23$ | 11.58 | 08/1982 07/1997 | 5.17$ | 6.71 | 2.60% |
| 20Y | -0.57 | 07/1901 06/1921 | 0.89$ | 2.80 | 1.73$ | 5.29 | 2.80$ | 7.40 | 4.16$ | 10.42 | 04/1980 03/2000 | 7.25$ | 4.65 | 0.56% |
| 30Y | 1.73 | 08/1890 07/1920 | 1.67$ | 3.87 | 3.12$ | 5.09 | 4.42$ | 6.52 | 6.64$ | 8.08 | 05/1871 04/1901 | 10.28$ | 5.35 | 0.00% |
| Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods | ||||||||||||||
If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.
Seasonality
In which months is it better to invest in Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio?
Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
For further information about the seasonality, check the
page.
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| Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Average Gain Frequency | 1.36 | -1.04 | -0.35 | 1.61 | 0.05 | 1.37 | 3.00 | 0.09 | -3.12 | 1.24 | 4.23 | -0.33 |
| Best | 5.6 2019 | 2.2 2019 | 2.7 2023 | 8.3 2020 | 3.3 2020 | 4.8 2019 | 6.3 2022 | 3.8 2020 | 0.9 2019 | 4.3 2021 | 7.6 2023 | 2.9 2020 |
| Worst | -4.5 2022 | -4.1 2020 | -8.6 2020 | -7.1 2022 | -3.4 2019 | -5.5 2022 | 0.9 2019 | -3.3 2022 | -7.1 2022 | -2.2 2023 | -0.9 2021 | -4.9 2018 |
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1871 - Nov 2023
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| Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Average Gain Frequency | 0.57 | 0.08 | 0.16 | 1.01 | 0.64 | 0.90 | 2.10 | 0.24 | -1.71 | 0.75 | 2.82 | 0.09 |
| Best | 5.6 2019 | 3.1 2014 | 4.5 2016 | 8.3 2020 | 3.3 2020 | 4.8 2019 | 6.3 2022 | 3.8 2020 | 1.3 2017 | 4.6 2015 | 7.6 2023 | 2.9 2020 |
| Worst | -4.5 2022 | -4.1 2020 | -8.6 2020 | -7.1 2022 | -3.4 2019 | -5.5 2022 | -1.3 2014 | -3.8 2015 | -7.1 2022 | -5.0 2018 | -0.9 2021 | -4.9 2018 |
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1871 - Nov 2023
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| Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Average Gain Frequency | 1.07 | 0.37 | 0.46 | 0.95 | 0.31 | 0.56 | 0.90 | 0.82 | 0.04 | 0.41 | 1.02 | 1.00 |
| Best | 8.7 1975 | 7.1 1931 | 6.6 1928 | 24.3 1933 | 11.2 1933 | 14.4 1938 | 18.4 1932 | 20.8 1932 | 7.8 1939 | 8.9 1974 | 8.4 1928 | 8.1 1873 |
| Worst | -5.7 2009 | -10.8 1933 | -15.4 1938 | -10.2 1932 | -14.5 1940 | -10.0 1930 | -6.1 1934 | -9.0 1998 | -17.3 1931 | -13.9 1987 | -7.1 1929 | -8.0 1931 |
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1871 - Nov 2023
Monthly Returns
This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.
STOCKS/BONDS 60/40 PORTFOLIO
Monthly Returns Distribution
Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 November 2023 (~153 years)
238 Positive Months (66%) - 122 Negative Months (34%)
1147 Positive Months (63%) - 688 Negative Months (37%)
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(Scroll down to see all data)
Investment Returns, up to December 2007, have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
You can find additional information on extended Data Sources here.
In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:
- VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI), up to December 2001
- BND - Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND), up to December 2007
Portfolio efficiency
The following portfolios granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.
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30 Years Stats (%) | % Allocation | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | Author | Return▾ | Dev.Std | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm | ||
| Shield Strategy | Aim Ways | +8.61 | 8.84 | -19.36 | 42 | 38 | 20 | ||
| Aim Bold Strategy | Aim Ways | +8.24 | 9.93 | -30.09 | 45 | 40 | 15 | ||
| Stocks/Bonds 60/40 | +7.99 | 9.61 | -30.55 | 60 | 40 | 0 | |||
The following portfolios share asset allocation strategy and/or similar asset weights.
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5 Years Stats (%) | % Allocation | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | Author | Return▾ | Dev.Std | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm | ||
| Stocks/Bonds 60/40 2x Leveraged | +9.79 | 23.99 | -39.53 | 60 | 40 | 0 | |||
| Stocks/Bonds 60/40 with Bitcoin | +9.22 | 13.53 | -21.45 | 59 | 39 | 2 | |||
| Stocks/Bonds 60/40 ESG | +8.15 | 12.89 | -22.44 | 60 | 40 | 0 | |||
| Stocks/Bonds 60/40 | +7.53 | 12.88 | -20.69 | 60 | 40 | 0 | |||
| Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Momentum | +5.28 | 12.54 | -24.21 | 60 | 40 | 0 | |||
Here's a list containing the Best Classic Portfolios, with the highest returns over 30 Years and High Risk categorization.
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30 Years Stats (%) | % Allocation | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | Author | Return▾ | Dev.Std | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm | ||
| Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Momentum | +9.34 | 9.56 | -32.52 | 60 | 40 | 0 | |||
| Simple Path to Wealth | JL Collins | +8.78 | 11.75 | -38.53 | 75 | 25 | 0 | ||
| Shield Strategy | Aim Ways | +8.61 | 8.84 | -19.36 | 42 | 38 | 20 | ||
| Aim Bold Strategy | Aim Ways | +8.24 | 9.93 | -30.09 | 45 | 40 | 15 | ||
| Late Sixties and Beyond | Burton Malkiel | +8.13 | 11.69 | -41.80 | 71 | 29 | 0 | ||
Analyze your Portfolio: Backtest Now!
Explore historical data since 1871 and fine-tune your investment strategy for better results.
Wow, that's quite a comprehensive set of financial data! This article delves deep into the Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio, which is a commonly used investment strategy involving 60% stocks and 40% bonds. Here's a breakdown of the key concepts and information mentioned in the article:
1. Portfolio Composition and ETFs
- Asset Allocation: 60% Stocks, 40% Fixed Income (Bonds), 0% Commodities
- ETFs Used: VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market) for stocks, BND (Vanguard Total Bond Market) for bonds
2. Historical Performance
- Compound Annual Return (30 years): 7.99%
- Standard Deviation (30 years): 9.61%
- Inflation-Adjusted Returns (over various timeframes): Varied from negative to positive, with long-term returns around 7-8%
3. Risk and Drawdown Analysis
- Drawdowns: Highlighting periods of decline and recovery in the portfolio's value.
- Risk Indicators: Including Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, Ulcer Index, Return-to-Drawdown ratios.
4. Rolling Returns
- Performance Over Rolling Periods: Illustrating annualized returns over various rolling periods, showing both best and worst times for the portfolio.
5. Withdrawal Rates
- Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): Around 3-4% depending on the timeframe.
- Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): Slightly lower than SWR, around 3-5%.
6. Correlation and Asset Analysis
- Correlation between Stocks and Bonds: Highlighting their relationship, often showing an inverse correlation to balance risks.
This article provides a detailed overview of the Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio's historical performance, risk analysis, withdrawal strategies, and correlation between its components. It's a comprehensive guide for investors considering this specific investment approach.
As for managing early retirement with this portfolio, a key consideration would be the withdrawal rates – aiming for a balance between sustaining one's lifestyle and ensuring the longevity of the portfolio. Additionally, keeping an eye on economic conditions and rebalancing strategies would be crucial to adapt to market changes.
