Data Source: from January 1871 to November 2023 (~153 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 November 2023
Live Update: Dec 20 2023, 01:00PM Eastern Time
PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
0.20%
1 Day
Dec 20 2023, 01:00PM Eastern Time
3.67%
Current Month
December 2023
The Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio is a Low Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 2 ETFs.
It's exposed for 20% on the Stock Market.
In the last 30 Years, the Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio obtained a 5.54% compound annual return, with a 4.90% standard deviation.
Table of contents
Asset Allocation and ETFs
The Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio has the following asset allocation:
20% Stocks
80% Fixed Income
0% Commodities
The Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:
| Weight (%) | Ticker | Currency | ETF Name | Investment Themes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.00 | VTI | USD | Vanguard Total Stock Market | Equity, U.S., Large Cap |
| 80.00 | BND | USD | Vanguard Total Bond Market | Bond, U.S., All-Term |
Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.
Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Nov 30, 2023
The Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.
Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:
- no fees or capital gain taxes.
- a rebalancing of the components at every January 1st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
- the reinvestment of dividends.
December 2023 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the starting asset allocation.
STOCKS/BONDS 20/80 PORTFOLIO
Consolidated returns as of 30 November 2023
Live Update: Dec 20 2023, 01:00PM Eastern Time
Swipe left to see all data
| Chg (%) | Return (%) | Return (%) as of Nov 30, 2023 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Day | Time ET(*) | Dec 2023 | 1M | 6M | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | 30Y | MAX (~153Y) | |||
| Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio | 0.20 | 3.67 | 5.61 | 1.63 | 3.48 | 3.07 | 3.39 | 5.54 | 5.66 | |||
| US Inflation Adjusted return | 5.82 | 0.66 | 0.34 | -0.92 | 0.58 | 2.95 | 3.47 | |||||
| Components | ||||||||||||
VTI | USD | Vanguard Total Stock Market | 0.24 | 01:00PM, Dec 20 2023 | 5.47 | 9.42 | 10.04 | 12.72 | 11.71 | 11.16 | 9.90 | 9.08 |
BND | USD | Vanguard Total Bond Market | 0.18 | 12:59PM, Dec 20 2023 | 3.22 | 4.54 | -0.60 | 0.97 | 0.72 | 1.33 | 4.12 | 4.48 |
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1871
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Nov 2023. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.14% , 5Y: 4.03% , 10Y: 2.80% , 30Y: 2.51%
Live update: World Markets and Indexes
In 2022, the Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio granted a 2.05% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
Capital Growth as of Nov 30, 2023
An investment of 1$, since December 1993, now would be worth 5.04$, with a total return of 403.93% (5.54% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 2.39$, with a net total return of 139.28% (2.95% annualized).
An investment of 1$, since January 1871, now would be worth 4537.36$, with a total return of 453636.04% (5.66% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 184.32$, with a net total return of 18331.89% (3.47% annualized).
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Portfolio Metrics as of Nov 30, 2023
Metrics of Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio, updated as of 30 November 2023.
Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
- no fees or capital gain taxes.
- a rebalancing of the components at every January 1st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
- the reinvestment of dividends.
STOCKS/BONDS 20/80 PORTFOLIO
Advanced Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 November 2023 (~153 years)
Swipe left to see all data
| Metrics as of Nov 30, 2023 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX (~153Y) | |
| Investment Return (%) | 5.61 | 0.63 | 1.63 | 3.48 | -1.86 | 3.07 | 3.39 | 4.49 | 5.54 | 5.66 |
| Infl. Adjusted Return (%) details | 5.82 | 0.62 | 0.66 | 0.34 | -7.12 | -0.92 | 0.58 | 1.86 | 2.95 | 3.47 |
| US Inflation (%) | -0.20 | 0.01 | 0.96 | 3.14 | 5.67 | 4.03 | 2.80 | 2.58 | 2.51 | 2.12 |
| Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized. | ||||||||||
DRAWDOWN Inflation Adjusted: Inflation Adjusted: | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX | |||
| Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) | -5.62 | -16.57 | -16.57 | -16.57 | -16.57 | -16.57 | -18.94 | |||
| Start to Recovery (# months) details | 4* | 23* | 23* | 23* | 23* | 23* | 36 | |||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2023 08 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 1930 06 | |||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 3 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 24 | |||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2023 10 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 1932 05 | |||
| Bottom to End (# months) | 1 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 12 | |||
| End (yyyy mm) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1933 05 | |||
| Longest Drawdown Depth (%) | same as deepest | same as deepest | same as deepest | same as deepest | same as deepest | same as deepest | same as deepest | |||
| Start to Recovery (# months) details | ||||||||||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2023 08 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 1930 06 | |||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 3 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 24 | |||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2023 10 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 1932 05 | |||
| Bottom to End (# months) | 1 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 12 | |||
| End (yyyy mm) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1933 05 | |||
| Longest negative period (# months) details | 11 | 36* | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 61 | |||
| Period Start (yyyy mm) | 2022 12 | 2020 12 | 2019 09 | 2019 09 | 2019 09 | 2019 09 | 1927 05 | |||
| Period End (yyyy mm) | 2023 10 | 2023 11 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 1932 05 | |||
| Annualized Return (%) | -2.19 | -1.86 | -0.07 | -0.07 | -0.07 | -0.07 | -0.08 | |||
| Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress | ||||||||||
| Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) | -6.74 | -25.05 | -25.05 | -25.05 | -25.05 | -25.05 | -46.65 | |||
| Start to Recovery (# months) details | 10* | 35* | 35* | 35* | 35* | 35* | 126 | |||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2023 02 | 2021 01 | 2021 01 | 2021 01 | 2021 01 | 2021 01 | 1916 01 | |||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 9 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 54 | |||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 1920 06 | |||
| Bottom to End (# months) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 72 | |||
| End (yyyy mm) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1926 06 | |||
| Longest Drawdown Depth (%) | same as deepest | same as deepest | same as deepest | same as deepest | same as deepest | same as deepest | same as deepest | |||
| Start to Recovery (# months) details | ||||||||||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2023 02 | 2021 01 | 2021 01 | 2021 01 | 2021 01 | 2021 01 | 1916 01 | |||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 9 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 54 | |||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 1920 06 | |||
| Bottom to End (# months) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 72 | |||
| End (yyyy mm) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1926 06 | |||
| Longest negative period (# months) details | 11 | 36* | 60* | 118 | 118 | 118 | 340 | |||
| Period Start (yyyy mm) | 2022 12 | 2020 12 | 2018 12 | 2014 01 | 2014 01 | 2014 01 | 1892 04 | |||
| Period End (yyyy mm) | 2023 10 | 2023 11 | 2023 11 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 1920 07 | |||
| Annualized Return (%) | -5.64 | -7.12 | -0.92 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | |||
| Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress | ||||||||||
RISK INDICATORS | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX | |||
| Standard Deviation (%) | 9.00 | 8.32 | 7.52 | 5.73 | 5.06 | 4.90 | 5.11 | |||
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.15 | -0.45 | 0.19 | 0.41 | 0.63 | 0.67 | 0.33 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | -0.24 | -0.65 | 0.25 | 0.55 | 0.84 | 0.90 | 0.47 | |||
| Ulcer Index | 2.14 | 9.02 | 7.05 | 5.05 | 3.75 | 3.18 | 2.54 | |||
| Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation | 0.39 | -0.22 | 0.41 | 0.59 | 0.89 | 1.13 | 1.11 | |||
| Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown | 0.62 | -0.11 | 0.19 | 0.20 | 0.27 | 0.33 | 0.30 | |||
| % Positive Months details | 50% | 50% | 58% | 64% | 67% | 69% | 65% | |||
| Positive Months | 6 | 18 | 35 | 77 | 163 | 249 | 1200 | |||
| Negative Months | 6 | 18 | 25 | 43 | 77 | 111 | 635 | |||
LONG TERM RETURNS Inflation Adjusted: Inflation Adjusted: | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX | |||
| Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized | 3.39 | 6.19 | 8.62 | 14.44 | ||||||
| Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized | 2.88 | 2.88 | 2.38 | |||||||
| Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized | 0.58 | 4.34 | 6.05 | 10.10 | ||||||
| Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized | 0.08 | 0.08 | -4.14 | |||||||
ROLLING PERIOD RETURNS Inflation Adjusted: Inflation Adjusted: | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX | |||
| Over the latest 30Y | ||||||||||
| Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | 21.70 | 14.01 | 11.48 | 8.62 | 7.13 | 5.54 | ||||
| Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | -15.76 | -2.58 | 1.67 | 2.88 | 4.23 | |||||
| % Positive Periods | 90% | 96% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||||
| Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | 18.69 | 11.21 | 8.90 | 6.05 | 4.72 | 2.95 | ||||
| Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | -21.82 | -7.85 | -2.09 | 0.08 | 1.61 | |||||
| % Positive Periods | 80% | 92% | 93% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||||
| Over all the available data source (Jan 1871 - Nov 2023) | ||||||||||
| Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | 35.57 | 20.41 | 20.12 | 14.44 | 11.85 | 9.96 | ||||
| Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | -16.17 | -5.37 | -0.38 | 2.38 | 3.41 | 3.85 | ||||
| % Positive Periods | 87% | 98% | 99% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||||
| Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | 40.28 | 16.32 | 16.05 | 10.10 | 8.25 | 6.69 | ||||
| Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | -21.82 | -13.27 | -11.11 | -4.14 | -1.18 | 0.52 | ||||
| % Positive Periods | 70% | 82% | 81% | 84% | 96% | 100% | ||||
WITHDRAWAL RATES (WR) | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX | |||
| Safe WR (%) | 30.48 | 21.38 | 11.28 | 6.50 | 5.84 | 5.65 | ||||
| Perpetual WR (%) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 | 1.83 | 2.87 | 3.35 | ||||
Terms and Definitions
- Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio
- Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
- Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed
- Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean
- Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return
- Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation)
- Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio
- Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame
- Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
- Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the original portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money (dollar amount withdrawal).
- Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year, while retaining the inflation adjusted portfolio balance (percentage withdrawal).
Talking about withdrawal rates, how would you manage your early retirement with the Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio? Read more here
Analyze your Portfolio: Backtest Now!
Explore historical data since 1871 and fine-tune your investment strategy for better results.
Portfolio Components Correlation
Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.
Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS
Monthly correlations as of 30 November 2023
Swipe left to see all data
| Asset | VTI | BND |
|---|---|---|
VTI | - | 0.80 |
BND | 0.80 | - |
| Asset | VTI | BND |
|---|---|---|
VTI | - | 0.48 |
BND | 0.48 | - |
| Asset | VTI | BND |
|---|---|---|
VTI | - | 0.37 |
BND | 0.37 | - |
| Asset | VTI | BND |
|---|---|---|
VTI | - | 0.16 |
BND | 0.16 | - |
| Asset | VTI | BND |
|---|---|---|
VTI | - | 0.15 |
BND | 0.15 | - |
If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.
Drawdowns
A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.
STOCKS/BONDS 20/80 PORTFOLIO
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 November 2023 (~153 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period | Recovery period | Total | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months | Ulcer Index |
| -16.57% | Jan 2022 | Sep 2022 | 9 | in progress | 14 | 23 | 11.19 |
| -8.42% | May 2008 | Oct 2008 | 6 | Jul 2009 | 9 | 15 | 4.07 |
| -5.50% | Feb 1994 | Jun 1994 | 5 | Feb 1995 | 8 | 13 | 3.71 |
| -3.92% | Feb 2020 | Mar 2020 | 2 | Apr 2020 | 1 | 3 | 1.96 |
| -2.67% | Sep 2018 | Oct 2018 | 2 | Jan 2019 | 3 | 5 | 1.60 |
| -2.58% | Apr 2004 | May 2004 | 2 | Sep 2004 | 4 | 6 | 1.65 |
| -2.56% | May 2013 | Jun 2013 | 2 | Oct 2013 | 4 | 6 | 1.44 |
| -2.40% | Aug 2016 | Nov 2016 | 4 | Apr 2017 | 5 | 9 | 1.09 |
| -2.23% | Apr 2000 | May 2000 | 2 | Jun 2000 | 1 | 3 | 1.33 |
| -2.17% | Feb 1999 | Feb 1999 | 1 | Apr 1999 | 2 | 3 | 1.18 |
| -2.15% | Jul 1998 | Aug 1998 | 2 | Sep 1998 | 1 | 3 | 1.09 |
| -2.13% | Jul 2003 | Jul 2003 | 1 | Sep 2003 | 2 | 3 | 1.21 |
| -2.13% | Jun 2002 | Jul 2002 | 2 | Nov 2002 | 4 | 6 | 1.02 |
| -2.05% | Feb 2018 | Apr 2018 | 3 | Aug 2018 | 4 | 7 | 1.16 |
| -1.99% | Feb 2001 | Mar 2001 | 2 | Jul 2001 | 4 | 6 | 0.95 |
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period | Recovery period | Total | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months | Ulcer Index |
| -25.05% | Jan 2021 | Oct 2023 | 34 | in progress | 1 | 35 | 15.94 |
| -11.06% | Jan 2008 | Oct 2008 | 10 | Aug 2009 | 10 | 20 | 5.06 |
| -6.90% | Feb 1994 | Nov 1994 | 10 | May 1995 | 6 | 16 | 4.69 |
| -4.07% | Jan 2018 | Oct 2018 | 10 | Mar 2019 | 5 | 15 | 2.33 |
| -3.97% | Feb 2020 | Mar 2020 | 2 | Apr 2020 | 1 | 3 | 2.00 |
| -3.67% | Mar 2004 | May 2004 | 3 | Dec 2004 | 7 | 10 | 2.05 |
| -3.56% | Feb 2015 | Aug 2015 | 7 | Jun 2016 | 10 | 17 | 1.89 |
| -3.47% | Jan 2005 | Oct 2005 | 10 | Sep 2006 | 11 | 21 | 1.75 |
| -3.09% | Feb 2002 | Jul 2002 | 6 | Apr 2003 | 9 | 15 | 1.50 |
| -3.04% | Feb 1999 | Sep 1999 | 8 | Dec 1999 | 3 | 11 | 1.87 |
| -2.96% | May 2013 | Jun 2013 | 2 | Oct 2013 | 4 | 6 | 1.79 |
| -2.70% | Feb 1996 | Jul 1996 | 6 | Oct 1996 | 3 | 9 | 1.85 |
| -2.70% | Aug 2016 | Nov 2016 | 4 | Jun 2017 | 7 | 11 | 1.39 |
| -2.61% | Feb 2001 | Mar 2001 | 2 | Jul 2001 | 4 | 6 | 1.64 |
| -2.40% | Apr 2000 | May 2000 | 2 | Aug 2000 | 3 | 5 | 1.17 |
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period | Recovery period | Total | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months | Ulcer Index |
| -18.94% | Jun 1930 | May 1932 | 24 | May 1933 | 12 | 36 | 9.19 |
| -16.57% | Jan 2022 | Sep 2022 | 9 | in progress | 14 | 23 | 11.19 |
| -10.14% | Mar 1937 | Mar 1938 | 13 | Oct 1938 | 7 | 20 | 4.99 |
| -9.55% | Jul 1895 | Aug 1896 | 14 | Jan 1897 | 5 | 19 | 4.93 |
| -8.42% | May 2008 | Oct 2008 | 6 | Jul 2009 | 9 | 15 | 4.07 |
| -8.25% | Sep 1968 | May 1970 | 21 | Nov 1970 | 6 | 27 | 4.01 |
| -7.96% | Nov 1973 | Aug 1974 | 10 | Jan 1975 | 5 | 15 | 4.18 |
| -7.75% | Oct 1979 | Mar 1980 | 6 | Apr 1980 | 1 | 7 | 4.21 |
| -7.49% | Jul 1873 | Nov 1873 | 5 | Feb 1874 | 3 | 8 | 3.85 |
| -6.85% | Apr 1971 | Jul 1971 | 4 | Dec 1971 | 5 | 9 | 3.30 |
| -6.24% | Apr 1940 | May 1940 | 2 | Oct 1940 | 5 | 7 | 2.87 |
| -6.16% | Nov 1919 | May 1920 | 7 | Sep 1921 | 16 | 23 | 3.27 |
| -6.14% | Sep 1987 | Nov 1987 | 3 | Feb 1988 | 3 | 6 | 3.45 |
| -6.13% | Dec 1892 | Jul 1893 | 8 | Feb 1894 | 7 | 15 | 2.65 |
| -5.99% | Nov 1905 | Dec 1907 | 26 | Apr 1908 | 4 | 30 | 2.40 |
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period | Recovery period | Total | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months | Ulcer Index |
| -46.65% | Jan 1916 | Jun 1920 | 54 | Jun 1926 | 72 | 126 | 24.08 |
| -30.21% | Dec 1972 | Sep 1981 | 106 | Apr 1983 | 19 | 125 | 15.96 |
| -25.91% | Feb 1946 | Sep 1948 | 32 | Jun 1955 | 81 | 113 | 17.11 |
| -25.05% | Jan 2021 | Oct 2023 | 34 | in progress | 1 | 35 | 15.94 |
| -16.81% | Sep 1968 | May 1970 | 21 | Mar 1971 | 10 | 31 | 9.32 |
| -15.53% | Feb 1899 | Dec 1899 | 11 | Apr 1901 | 16 | 27 | 10.37 |
| -14.60% | Dec 1940 | Apr 1942 | 17 | Sep 1945 | 41 | 58 | 8.60 |
| -14.26% | Nov 1905 | Oct 1907 | 24 | Nov 1908 | 13 | 37 | 7.10 |
| -12.61% | Jul 1879 | Jan 1880 | 7 | Jan 1881 | 12 | 19 | 6.18 |
| -12.29% | Jul 1892 | Feb 1893 | 8 | Jan 1894 | 11 | 19 | 6.91 |
| -11.63% | Aug 1897 | May 1898 | 10 | Jul 1898 | 2 | 12 | 5.20 |
| -11.60% | Jul 1901 | Feb 1904 | 32 | Mar 1905 | 13 | 45 | 7.14 |
| -11.06% | Jan 2008 | Oct 2008 | 10 | Aug 2009 | 10 | 20 | 5.06 |
| -11.01% | Jul 1881 | Jun 1882 | 12 | Jun 1883 | 12 | 24 | 7.62 |
| -10.49% | Jul 1876 | Jan 1877 | 7 | Aug 1877 | 7 | 14 | 6.07 |
Rolling Returns
( more details)
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
STOCKS/BONDS 20/80 PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 November 2023 (~153 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
Swipe left to see all data
| Rolling Period | Worst Period | 15th Percentile | 50th Percentile | 85th Percentile | Best Period | Latest | Negative Periods | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ann. Return | From To | Growth of 1$ | Ann. Return | Growth of 1$ | Ann. Return | Growth of 1$ | Ann. Return | Growth of 1$ | Ann. Return | From To | Growth of 1$ | |||
| 1Y | -15.76 | 11/2021 10/2022 | 0.84$ | 1.89 | 1.01$ | 6.38 | 1.06$ | 10.23 | 1.10$ | 21.70 | 01/1995 12/1995 | 1.21$ | 3.48 | 9.74% |
| 2Y | -7.37 | 11/2021 10/2023 | 0.85$ | 3.23 | 1.06$ | 5.79 | 1.11$ | 9.64 | 1.20$ | 15.20 | 12/1994 11/1996 | 1.32$ | -4.71 | 6.82% |
| 3Y | -2.58 | 11/2020 10/2023 | 0.92$ | 3.97 | 1.12$ | 5.59 | 1.17$ | 8.82 | 1.28$ | 14.01 | 01/1995 12/1997 | 1.48$ | -1.86 | 3.38% |
| 5Y | 1.67 | 10/2017 09/2022 | 1.08$ | 4.38 | 1.23$ | 5.60 | 1.31$ | 7.83 | 1.45$ | 11.48 | 01/1995 12/1999 | 1.72$ | 3.07 | 0.00% |
| 7Y | 2.21 | 11/2016 10/2023 | 1.16$ | 4.60 | 1.36$ | 5.57 | 1.46$ | 6.96 | 1.60$ | 9.98 | 12/1994 11/2001 | 1.94$ | 3.18 | 0.00% |
| 10Y | 2.88 | 11/2013 10/2023 | 1.32$ | 5.07 | 1.64$ | 5.58 | 1.72$ | 6.79 | 1.92$ | 8.62 | 01/1995 12/2004 | 2.28$ | 3.39 | 0.00% |
| 15Y | 3.93 | 11/2007 10/2022 | 1.78$ | 5.05 | 2.09$ | 5.58 | 2.25$ | 6.51 | 2.57$ | 7.35 | 12/1994 11/2009 | 2.89$ | 4.85 | 0.00% |
| 20Y | 4.23 | 11/2003 10/2023 | 2.29$ | 4.93 | 2.61$ | 5.54 | 2.93$ | 6.54 | 3.54$ | 7.13 | 12/1994 11/2014 | 3.96$ | 4.49 | 0.00% |
| 30Y | 5.54 | 12/1993 11/2023 | 5.03$ | 5.54 | 5.03$ | 5.54 | 5.03$ | 5.54 | 5.03$ | 5.54 | 12/1993 11/2023 | 5.03$ | 5.54 | 0.00% |
| Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods | ||||||||||||||
Swipe left to see all data
| Rolling Period | Worst Period | 15th Percentile | 50th Percentile | 85th Percentile | Best Period | Latest | Negative Periods | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ann. Return | From To | Growth of 1$ | Ann. Return | Growth of 1$ | Ann. Return | Growth of 1$ | Ann. Return | Growth of 1$ | Ann. Return | From To | Growth of 1$ | |||
| 1Y | -21.82 | 11/2021 10/2022 | 0.78$ | -0.80 | 0.99$ | 3.62 | 1.03$ | 8.52 | 1.08$ | 18.69 | 01/1995 12/1995 | 1.18$ | 0.34 | 19.48% |
| 2Y | -12.17 | 11/2021 10/2023 | 0.77$ | 0.87 | 1.01$ | 3.55 | 1.07$ | 7.41 | 1.15$ | 11.92 | 12/1994 11/1996 | 1.25$ | -9.34 | 9.20% |
| 3Y | -7.85 | 11/2020 10/2023 | 0.78$ | 1.81 | 1.05$ | 3.31 | 1.10$ | 6.08 | 1.19$ | 11.21 | 01/1995 12/1997 | 1.37$ | -7.12 | 7.08% |
| 5Y | -2.09 | 11/2017 10/2022 | 0.89$ | 2.04 | 1.10$ | 3.33 | 1.17$ | 5.55 | 1.30$ | 8.90 | 01/1995 12/1999 | 1.53$ | -0.92 | 6.64% |
| 7Y | -1.25 | 11/2016 10/2023 | 0.91$ | 2.37 | 1.17$ | 3.36 | 1.25$ | 4.82 | 1.38$ | 7.35 | 12/1994 11/2001 | 1.64$ | -0.30 | 5.05% |
| 10Y | 0.08 | 11/2013 10/2023 | 1.00$ | 2.56 | 1.28$ | 3.43 | 1.40$ | 4.22 | 1.51$ | 6.05 | 01/1995 12/2004 | 1.79$ | 0.58 | 0.00% |
| 15Y | 1.50 | 11/2007 10/2022 | 1.25$ | 2.87 | 1.52$ | 3.31 | 1.63$ | 4.01 | 1.80$ | 4.74 | 12/1994 11/2009 | 2.00$ | 2.31 | 0.00% |
| 20Y | 1.61 | 11/2003 10/2023 | 1.37$ | 2.42 | 1.61$ | 3.36 | 1.93$ | 4.13 | 2.24$ | 4.72 | 02/1995 01/2015 | 2.51$ | 1.86 | 0.00% |
| 30Y | 2.95 | 12/1993 11/2023 | 2.39$ | 2.95 | 2.39$ | 2.95 | 2.39$ | 2.95 | 2.39$ | 2.95 | 12/1993 11/2023 | 2.39$ | 2.95 | 0.00% |
| Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods | ||||||||||||||
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| Rolling Period | Worst Period | 15th Percentile | 50th Percentile | 85th Percentile | Best Period | Latest | Negative Periods | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ann. Return | From To | Growth of 1$ | Ann. Return | Growth of 1$ | Ann. Return | Growth of 1$ | Ann. Return | Growth of 1$ | Ann. Return | From To | Growth of 1$ | |||
| 1Y | -16.17 | 07/1931 06/1932 | 0.83$ | 0.51 | 1.00$ | 5.55 | 1.05$ | 10.95 | 1.10$ | 35.57 | 07/1982 06/1983 | 1.35$ | 3.48 | 12.45% |
| 2Y | -9.97 | 06/1930 05/1932 | 0.81$ | 2.08 | 1.04$ | 5.41 | 1.11$ | 9.51 | 1.19$ | 26.49 | 07/1984 06/1986 | 1.59$ | -4.71 | 4.69% |
| 3Y | -5.37 | 07/1929 06/1932 | 0.84$ | 3.02 | 1.09$ | 5.16 | 1.16$ | 8.61 | 1.28$ | 20.41 | 07/1982 06/1985 | 1.74$ | -1.86 | 1.72% |
| 5Y | -0.38 | 06/1927 05/1932 | 0.98$ | 3.40 | 1.18$ | 5.35 | 1.29$ | 8.35 | 1.49$ | 20.12 | 09/1981 08/1986 | 2.50$ | 3.07 | 0.11% |
| 7Y | 1.80 | 09/1889 08/1896 | 1.13$ | 3.78 | 1.29$ | 5.14 | 1.41$ | 8.22 | 1.73$ | 16.81 | 04/1980 03/1987 | 2.96$ | 3.18 | 0.00% |
| 10Y | 2.38 | 09/1886 08/1896 | 1.26$ | 3.98 | 1.47$ | 5.14 | 1.65$ | 7.84 | 2.12$ | 14.44 | 10/1981 09/1991 | 3.85$ | 3.39 | 0.00% |
| 15Y | 2.76 | 09/1881 08/1896 | 1.50$ | 4.13 | 1.83$ | 5.13 | 2.11$ | 8.33 | 3.31$ | 12.55 | 10/1981 09/1996 | 5.89$ | 4.85 | 0.00% |
| 20Y | 3.41 | 07/1901 06/1921 | 1.95$ | 4.20 | 2.27$ | 5.09 | 2.69$ | 8.49 | 5.09$ | 11.85 | 04/1980 03/2000 | 9.38$ | 4.49 | 0.00% |
| 30Y | 3.85 | 06/1881 05/1911 | 3.10$ | 4.39 | 3.63$ | 5.06 | 4.39$ | 8.55 | 11.70$ | 9.96 | 07/1970 06/2000 | 17.24$ | 5.54 | 0.00% |
| Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods | ||||||||||||||
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| Rolling Period | Worst Period | 15th Percentile | 50th Percentile | 85th Percentile | Best Period | Latest | Negative Periods | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ann. Return | From To | Growth of 1$ | Ann. Return | Growth of 1$ | Ann. Return | Growth of 1$ | Ann. Return | Growth of 1$ | Ann. Return | From To | Growth of 1$ | |||
| 1Y | -21.82 | 11/2021 10/2022 | 0.78$ | -4.12 | 0.95$ | 3.69 | 1.03$ | 11.61 | 1.11$ | 40.28 | 07/1932 06/1933 | 1.40$ | 0.34 | 29.82% |
| 2Y | -15.38 | 01/1917 12/1918 | 0.71$ | -1.84 | 0.96$ | 3.81 | 1.07$ | 9.00 | 1.18$ | 24.02 | 09/1920 08/1922 | 1.53$ | -9.34 | 21.41% |
| 3Y | -13.27 | 03/1917 02/1920 | 0.65$ | -0.78 | 0.97$ | 3.62 | 1.11$ | 8.61 | 1.28$ | 16.32 | 07/1982 06/1985 | 1.57$ | -7.12 | 17.72% |
| 5Y | -11.11 | 07/1915 06/1920 | 0.55$ | -0.61 | 0.97$ | 3.52 | 1.18$ | 7.79 | 1.45$ | 16.05 | 09/1981 08/1986 | 2.10$ | -0.92 | 18.30% |
| 7Y | -7.21 | 06/1913 05/1920 | 0.59$ | -0.25 | 0.98$ | 3.47 | 1.27$ | 7.41 | 1.64$ | 13.15 | 06/1872 05/1879 | 2.37$ | -0.30 | 15.92% |
| 10Y | -4.14 | 12/1910 11/1920 | 0.65$ | -0.07 | 0.99$ | 3.38 | 1.39$ | 6.98 | 1.96$ | 10.10 | 10/1981 09/1991 | 2.61$ | 0.58 | 15.38% |
| 15Y | -2.77 | 08/1905 07/1920 | 0.65$ | 0.61 | 1.09$ | 3.27 | 1.62$ | 6.51 | 2.57$ | 9.37 | 08/1920 07/1935 | 3.82$ | 2.31 | 8.03% |
| 20Y | -1.18 | 07/1900 06/1920 | 0.78$ | 1.02 | 1.22$ | 3.06 | 1.82$ | 5.60 | 2.97$ | 8.25 | 05/1872 04/1892 | 4.88$ | 1.86 | 3.82% |
| 30Y | 0.52 | 08/1890 07/1920 | 1.16$ | 1.62 | 1.61$ | 3.15 | 2.53$ | 4.74 | 4.01$ | 6.69 | 04/1871 03/1901 | 6.98$ | 2.95 | 0.00% |
| Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods | ||||||||||||||
If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.
Seasonality
In which months is it better to invest in Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio?
Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
For further information about the seasonality, check the
page.
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| Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Average Gain Frequency | 0.92 | -0.87 | -0.21 | 0.54 | 0.30 | 0.60 | 1.66 | -0.22 | -2.16 | 0.04 | 2.69 | 0.02 |
| Best | 4.0 2023 | 0.7 2019 | 2.7 2023 | 4.4 2020 | 1.5 2020 | 2.5 2019 | 3.6 2022 | 1.7 2019 | -0.1 2019 | 1.6 2021 | 5.6 2023 | 1.1 2020 |
| Worst | -2.9 2022 | -2.8 2023 | -3.7 2020 | -5.0 2022 | -0.8 2023 | -2.9 2022 | 0.4 2019 | -3.0 2022 | -5.1 2022 | -1.8 2023 | -0.2 2021 | -1.8 2022 |
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1871 - Nov 2023
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| Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Average Gain Frequency | 0.70 | -0.27 | 0.13 | 0.40 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 1.14 | 0.09 | -1.17 | -0.02 | 1.48 | 0.11 |
| Best | 4.0 2023 | 1.3 2014 | 2.7 2023 | 4.4 2020 | 1.5 2020 | 2.5 2019 | 3.6 2022 | 1.7 2014 | 0.1 2017 | 1.6 2021 | 5.6 2023 | 1.1 2020 |
| Worst | -2.9 2022 | -2.8 2023 | -3.7 2020 | -5.0 2022 | -0.8 2023 | -2.9 2022 | -0.6 2014 | -3.0 2022 | -5.1 2022 | -2.3 2018 | -1.2 2016 | -1.8 2022 |
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1871 - Nov 2023
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| Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Average Gain Frequency | 0.56 | 0.36 | 0.40 | 0.53 | 0.40 | 0.46 | 0.40 | 0.45 | 0.26 | 0.38 | 0.79 | 0.66 |
| Best | 4.0 2023 | 6.6 1970 | 4.8 1971 | 9.5 1980 | 5.7 1985 | 4.6 1938 | 6.4 1932 | 7.3 1932 | 4.1 1982 | 6.4 1981 | 7.7 1981 | 6.2 1873 |
| Worst | -3.3 2009 | -5.9 1980 | -5.3 1938 | -5.5 1970 | -5.9 1940 | -2.9 2022 | -2.8 1891 | -3.4 1980 | -5.7 1931 | -6.0 1979 | -2.2 1907 | -3.8 1931 |
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1871 - Nov 2023
Monthly Returns
This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.
STOCKS/BONDS 20/80 PORTFOLIO
Monthly Returns Distribution
Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 November 2023 (~153 years)
249 Positive Months (69%) - 111 Negative Months (31%)
1200 Positive Months (65%) - 635 Negative Months (35%)
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(Scroll down to see all data)
Investment Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated.
They have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
You can see details about extended Data Sources here.
In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:
- VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market, up to December 2001
- BND - Vanguard Total Bond Market, up to December 2007
Portfolio efficiency
The following portfolios granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.
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30 Years Stats (%) | % Allocation | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | Author | Return▾ | Dev.Std | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm | ||
| Simplified Permanent Portfolio | +6.75 | 6.88 | -16.43 | 25 | 50 | 25 | |||
| Desert Portfolio | Gyroscopic Investing | +6.48 | 5.50 | -14.72 | 30 | 60 | 10 | ||
| Permanent Portfolio | Harry Browne | +6.37 | 6.58 | -15.92 | 25 | 50 | 25 | ||
| Larry Portfolio | Larry Swedroe | +5.81 | 5.57 | -15.96 | 30 | 70 | 0 | ||
| Stocks/Bonds 20/80 | +5.54 | 4.90 | -16.57 | 20 | 80 | 0 | |||
The following portfolios share asset allocation strategy and/or similar asset weights.
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5 Years Stats (%) | % Allocation | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | Author | Return▾ | Dev.Std | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm | ||
| Stocks/Bonds 20/80 | +3.07 | 7.52 | -16.57 | 20 | 80 | 0 | |||
| Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Momentum | +2.29 | 7.39 | -17.91 | 20 | 80 | 0 | |||
Here's a list containing the Best Classic Portfolios, with the highest returns over 30 Years and Low Risk categorization.
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30 Years Stats (%) | % Allocation | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | Author | Return▾ | Dev.Std | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm | ||
| High Yield Bonds Income | +6.42 | 8.80 | -23.97 | 0 | 100 | 0 | |||
| Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Momentum | +6.01 | 4.94 | -17.91 | 20 | 80 | 0 | |||
| All Country World 20/80 | +5.64 | 5.63 | -17.97 | 20 | 80 | 0 | |||
| Stocks/Bonds 20/80 | +5.54 | 4.90 | -16.57 | 20 | 80 | 0 | |||
| Dimensional Retirement Income Fund | DFA | +5.36 | 4.79 | -12.91 | 20.4 | 79.6 | 0 | ||
Analyze your Portfolio: Backtest Now!
Explore historical data since 1871 and fine-tune your investment strategy for better results.
As a seasoned financial analyst and investment enthusiast, my extensive expertise in analyzing financial data and portfolio metrics allows me to delve into the provided information with a comprehensive understanding. Let's break down the key concepts and insights presented in the article.
1. Data Source and Portfolio Performance:
The data spans an impressive timeline from January 1871 to November 2023, covering approximately 153 years. The portfolio under consideration is the Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio, a low-risk investment strategy. The most recent live update as of December 20, 2023, indicates a 0.20% return for the day and a 3.67% return for the current month.
2. Asset Allocation and ETFs:
The portfolio is allocated as follows:
- 20% in Stocks (VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market)
- 80% in Fixed Income (BND - Vanguard Total Bond Market)
- 0% in Commodities
This allocation can be implemented using the mentioned ETFs, providing exposure to U.S. equity and a diversified bond portfolio.
3. Historical Performance:
Over the last 30 years, the Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio achieved a 5.54% compound annual return with a 4.90% standard deviation. The article emphasizes the importance of considering different rebalancing strategies and assumes no fees or capital gain taxes for return calculations.
4. Portfolio Metrics:
Metrics as of November 30, 2023, include investment returns, inflation-adjusted returns, drawdown analysis, and risk indicators such as standard deviation, Sharpe ratio, and Sortino ratio. The metrics cover various time frames, from 1 month to the entire historical data source.
5. Inflation and World Markets:
The article provides information on U.S. inflation rates and mentions the dividend yield of the portfolio in 2022. It also touches upon the capital growth of an initial $1 investment since December 1993 and January 1871, adjusted for inflation.
6. Withdrawal Rates and Historical Correlations:
The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) and Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) are discussed, offering insights into sustainable withdrawal strategies. Additionally, historical correlations between the portfolio's components (VTI and BND) are presented.
7. Drawdowns and Rolling Returns:
Detailed information about drawdown periods, recovery periods, and rolling returns is provided. The analysis covers various time frames, offering a nuanced view of the portfolio's historical performance.
8. Investment Strategy and Future Considerations:
The article concludes by inviting readers to explore backtesting their portfolios and considering withdrawal strategies for early retirement with the Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio.
In summary, the presented data and analysis offer a comprehensive view of the Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio's historical performance, risk metrics, and potential considerations for investors.
