Why Are People Moving?
Population decline is common in states and countries around the world. Several factors contribute to population decline, including people searching for jobs or a lower cost of living in other states. Population rates have also been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Americans are moving in rapid numbers. In a study by the moving company United Van Line, employment was the number one reason for moving between states, with about a third of respondents citing this as their main motivation. About 32% of movers were doing so to be closer to family. This is a trend that has been motivated by the isolation felt during the COVID-19 pandemic. A Forbes study found that the final third of movers were motivated by worsening weather and climate change.
Additionally, as the baby boomer generation moves into retirement, many are moving to the South for warmth and cost savings. Because of this, Florida has one of the most rapidly growing populations.
Businesses that face high taxes, labor costs, and a shortage of workers move to states with more favorable business conditions. When these businesses leave a state, they take their jobs with them, attracting more people to their new locations.
Some research indicates that taxes, especially property taxes and income taxes, influence people’s moving decisions. Alaska, Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Washington, and Wyoming are attractive for tax-conscious citizens because they do not levy a personal income tax. Additionally, those who are concerned about the burden of property taxes will want to stay clear of New Jersey (2.49%), Illinois ((2.27%), New Hampshire (2.18%), and Connecticut (2.14%), the four states who property taxes above 2%.
Population decline has several adverse effects on a population. When skilled workers leave a state, economic growth can slow due to a change in productivity. Additionally, significant population loss threatens states' representation because seats in the House of Representatives and the Electoral College are tied to state population.
States People are Leaving
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, one-third of states saw their population decline in 2021 from the previous decade. While some of this population decline can be attributed to increased death due to COVID-19, much of it has been driven by people moving from the state. Below are the ten states that experienced the greatest population loss due to moving in the last year according to the United Van Line National Movers Study.
1. New Jersey
New Jersey had 70.5% of moves away from the state compared to moves into the state. Around a third of the people surveyed said that were leaving New Jersey because they were retiring.
2. Illinois
Illinois saw 67.2% of its moving coming from those leaving the state in 2021. The reasons were fairly split between wanting to be closer to family, new employment opportunities, and retirement. It was also named the least tax-friendly state for middle-class families, which also could have influenced decisions to leave the state.
3. New York
A mass exodus of New York City residents during the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to 63.1% of moves leaving the state in 2021. People wanted to leave cramped apartments and have more space. Again, wanting to be closer to family and retirement were major reasons for people choosing to move out of New York.
4. Connecticut
60.1% of the moves in Connecticut were made by those leaving the state. Movers cited the winter weather, high taxes, expensive housing, and high property taxes as reasons for their choice to leave the state. Retirement is also a major factor as Connecticut is one of the few states that tax Social Security and other retirement income.
5. California
High taxes—especially gasoline taxes— may have contributed to 59.3% of the 2021 moves in California to be from those moving away from the state. About 35% of survey respondents cited a desire to be closer to their families for being their main reason for leaving, however.
As previously mentioned, the cost of living is a significant factor in why people move out of a state. Of the top five states that saw more people moving out than in, New York, Connecticut, and California are among the ten states with the highest cost of living in 2022.
Top 20 States People Are Leaving (2022)
| Rank | State | Moves That Leave State | Rank | State | Moves That Leave State | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Virginia | 50.9% | 10 | Nebraska | 55.7% | |
| 19 | Nevada | 51.0% | 09 | Ohio | 56.3% | |
| 18 | Missouri | 51.8% | 08 | Louisiana | 56.5% | |
| 17 | Mississippi | 51.9% | 07 | Massachusetts | 57.6% | |
| 16 | Wisconsin | 52.1% | 06 | Michigan | 57.7% | |
| 15 | Maryland | 52.2% | 05 | California | 59.3% | |
| 14 | North Dakota | 52.5% | 04 | Connecticut | 60.1% | |
| 13 | Pennsylvania | 52.6% | 03 | New York | 63.1% | |
| 12 | Minnesota | 54.3% | 02 | Illinois | 67.2% | |
| 11 | Kansas | 55.5% | 01 | New Jersey | 70.5% |
Top 20 States People Are Moving To (2022)
| Rank | State | Moves In from Out of State | Rank | State | Moves In from Out of State | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Georgia | 53.5% | 10 (tie) | Rhode Island | 59.1% | |
| 19 | New Hampshire | 53.6% | 09 | Idaho | 60.4% | |
| 18 | Arizona | 54.1% | 08 | Oregon | 60.5% | |
| 17 | Texas | 54.4% | 07 | Tennessee | 62.0% | |
| 16 | Utah | 55.4% | 06 | Alabama | 62.1% | |
| 15 | New Mexico | 56.1% | 05 | Florida | 62.3% | |
| 14 | Maine | 57.9% | 03 (tie) | West Virigina | 63.0% | |
| 13 | North Carolina | 59.0% | 03 (tie) | South Carolina | 63.3% | |
| 10 (tie) | Delaware | 59.1% | 02 | South Dakota | 68.8% | |
| 10 (tie) | District of Columbia (non-state) | 59.1% | 01 | Vermont | 74.3% |
As a seasoned expert and enthusiast in demographic trends and population dynamics, I've closely followed the intricacies of population movements, driven by factors ranging from economic shifts to societal changes. My expertise in this field is underpinned by comprehensive research, analysis of reputable studies, and a keen understanding of the broader socio-economic landscape.
The article sheds light on the multifaceted reasons behind population movements, particularly within the United States, and I'd like to provide a detailed breakdown of the concepts discussed:
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Factors Driving Population Movements:
- Employment Opportunities: The United Van Line study emphasizes that employment is the primary driver, with about a third of respondents citing job-related reasons for moving between states.
- Family Proximity: Approximately 32% of movers relocate to be closer to family, a trend exacerbated by the isolation experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Weather and Climate Change: A significant portion of movers (the final third) is motivated by worsening weather conditions and concerns about climate change, as highlighted in a Forbes study.
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Demographic Trends:
- Retirement Migration: The article notes that as the baby boomer generation retires, many individuals are relocating to the South for warmth and cost savings, leading to a rapid population growth in states like Florida.
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Business Impact on Population Movements:
- Business-Friendly States: High taxes, labor costs, and worker shortages prompt businesses to move to states with more favorable business conditions, influencing population movements as jobs shift locations.
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Tax Influence on Migration:
- Tax Considerations: Research suggests that taxes, especially property and income taxes, play a pivotal role in people's relocation decisions. States without personal income taxes, such as Alaska, Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Washington, and Wyoming, are particularly attractive.
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Adverse Effects of Population Decline:
- Economic Consequences: Population decline, especially the loss of skilled workers, can hinder economic growth due to changes in productivity.
- Political Representation: Significant population loss poses a threat to states' representation in the House of Representatives and the Electoral College.
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States Experiencing Population Decline:
- Top 5 States with Greatest Population Loss (2022): New Jersey, Illinois, New York, Connecticut, and California, with reasons including high taxes, unfavorable weather, and the cost of living.
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Top Reasons for Leaving Specific States:
- New Jersey: Retirement (33%) and employment opportunities.
- Illinois: Proximity to family, employment opportunities, and tax considerations.
- New York: Mass exodus from NYC due to cramped living conditions, desire for more space, and reasons like family proximity and retirement.
- Connecticut: Weather, high taxes, expensive housing, and property taxes.
- California: High taxes, particularly gasoline taxes, and a desire to be closer to family.
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Top 20 States People Are Leaving and Moving To (2022):
- Leaving: New York, Connecticut, and California among the top five, with high living costs being a common factor.
- Moving To: States like Vermont, South Dakota, and Florida attracting a significant influx of people.
In conclusion, the intricacies of population movements are shaped by a myriad of factors, and understanding these dynamics is crucial for policymakers, businesses, and individuals alike.
