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Executive Summary
Drivers for the soybean industry include a smaller domestic crop, weakening prices, and pressure from South America.
Supply/Demand
U.S. soybean harvest started Sept. 18 with 55% of the soybean crop in good or excellent condition. The USDA estimates the 2022-23 crop to be 4.38 billion bushels, down 1.3% from the 2021-22 crop. Ending stocks declined year over year based on lower beginning stocks, yields and production.
U.S. soybean production was reduced due to losses in the Eastern Corn Belt and Central Plains. Both regions experienced multiple headwinds of late planting followed by excessive heat with little rain. Only two of the major corn growing regions, the Delta and Northern Plains, had modest annual production increases (25 and 2 million bushels, respectively). The USDA projects national soybean yields of 50.5 bushels per acre, down 1.8% from 2021.
U.S. Soybean* Yields and 2021 vs 2022 Year over Year Change
U.S. Soybean* Production (in million bushels) and 2021 vs 2022 Year Over Year Change
Source: USDA Crop Production. Sept. 12, 2022. Complied by Northwest FCS.
*Selected 18 states account for 96% of soybean production in 2021.
U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Sept. 12, 2022.
Prices
Soybean prices are softening. The USDA’s forecasts the 2022-23 crop average price at $14.35 per bushel, $0.35 per bushel lower than July’s forecast. November soybean futures have been volatile, reaching highs of $15.82 per bushel in early June before falling more than $2.30 at the end of July. Futures prices have settled in the $13.75 to high $14 range since August.
Prices for soybean oil and soybean meal weakened during the summer, falling further from the historically high 2021-22 prices. Since July, soybean oil price projections fell by $0.05 to $0.69 per pound. The USDA forecasts soybean meal prices will be $390 per short ton, down 11.4% year over year. There is a silver lining for U.S. soybean growers. Even if prices for the 2022-23 crop decline to the most conservative estimate of $12.50 per bushel (Office of the Congressional Budget forecast), soybeans will be profitable.
International
The government of Argentina raised soybean exchange rates to 200 Argentina peso per U.S. dollar, a 60 peso per U.S. dollar increase. Their goal was to incentive farmers to sell soybeans in storage and replenish Argentina’s foreign currency reserves. The policy worked. Within the first week, Argentina’s soybean sales grew 7x to 2.1 million tons of soybeans (4.7% of the 2021-22 crop sold in a week).
September is planting season for Argentina and Brazil. The dry winter conditions are encouraging farmers to favor planting soybeans over corn. Although producers will not harvest the new crop until March, agronomists predict that South America will have a record soybean production. Once this new crop comes to market, U.S. soybean prices will face greater downward pressures. Softening prices may encourage producers to sell now instead of storing soybeans.
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Additional Information
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FAQs
Supply/Demand
What is the market trend of soybeans? ›
US Soybean Price is at a current level of 487.49, down from 519.75 last month and down from 628.38 one year ago. This is a change of -6.21% from last month and -22.42% from one year ago.
Are soybean prices going up or down? ›
Soybeans. Soybean prices pushed through a choppy session with modest losses after a net round of technical selling on Wednesday. May futures dropped 1.75 cents to $11.6575, with July futures down 0.75 cents to $11.8125.
What is the outlook for the soybean industry? ›
Although soybean production grew consistently at a CAGR of 3.6% from 2008 to 2020, its CAGR dropped to 2.42% from 2014 to 2020 (FAOSTAT, 2022a). Nevertheless, global soybean production increased more than estimated in 2021 to reach 388,098 Mt (FAO, 2023).
Who is the biggest buyer of soybeans? ›
They include Soya beans. Exports In 2022 the top exporters of Soybeans were Brazil ($47.2B), United States ($34.6B), Argentina ($3.25B), Canada ($2.68B), and Paraguay ($1.23B). Imports In 2022 the top importers of Soybeans were China ($54.1B), Mexico ($4.08B), Japan ($2.47B), Spain ($2.43B), and Germany ($2.35B).
What is the soybean outlook for 2024? ›
The national average soybean yield is projected at 52 bu. per acre. The projected total supplies from 2024/25 are 17.24 billion bushels of corn and 4.84 billion bushels of soybeans. The market's job is to find a way to use as many of those bushels as possible.
Why are soybean prices falling? ›
Corn and soybean prices have declined on the back of excess supplies, with disappointing U.S. mandates for plant-based renewable fuels contributing to weakness — and pulling prices for both down by roughly 8% in the first few weeks of the year.
Should I sell soybeans now? ›
Sell Soybeans Now
Still, soybean fundamentals are more positive than the supply and demand outlook for corn. Soybean export demand improved as the 2023/24 marketing year started, and expanded crush capacity helped domestic demand set new records late in the old-crop marketing year.
How much is a bushel of soybeans selling for? ›
What is the current price for a bushel of soybeans? ›
Interactive chart of historical daily soybean prices back to 1971. The price shown is in U.S. Dollars per bushel. The current price of soybeans as of April 24, 2024 is $11.6900 per bushel.
Soil erosion, degradation, and compaction
New methods like conservation tillage minimize erosion, but lands classified as "highly erodible" are still in use for soybean production. Because soy cultivation is highly mechanized, soil compaction is also a problem on many large soybean farms.
How high will soybean prices go? ›
Last year, the average November soybean futures contract averaged $13.30 per bushel, with a price range of $2.78. Again, that range is much less volatile than the $4.88 we saw in 2021. Going forward in to 2024, Maples projects a trading range of $2 with corn prices sitting somewhere between $4 to $6 per bushel.
What country is #1 in soybean production? ›
From 2015/16 to 2018/2019, the United States was the leading global producer of soybeans with a production volume of 120.52 million metric tons in 2018/2019. As of 2019, Brazil overtook the United States as the leading soybean producing country with a production volume of some 162 million metric tons in 2022/23.
What are the top 5 states for soybeans? ›
Top 10 U.S. states for soybean production
| State | Rank (acres) | Yield — bushels/acre |
|---|
| Illinois | 1 | 65.0 |
| Iowa | 2 | 57.0 |
| Minnesota | 3 | 50.5 |
| Indiana | 4 | 58.5 |
6 more rowsHistorically, Soybeans reached an all time high of 1794.75 in September of 2012. Soybeans - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on April 20 of 2024.
What country buys the most soybeans from the US? ›
U.S. Soybeans Exports in 2023
| Market | Total Value (USD) |
|---|
| China | $15.16 Billion |
| European Union | $3.61 Billion |
| Mexico | $2.78 Billion |
| Japan | $1.36 Billion |
6 more rowsSimilarly, soybeans, which still had high futures prices at harvest, fell from a season average price of $14.30 in 2022/23 to a projected season average of $12.65 in 2023/24 and are projected to decline further to a season average of $11.20 in 2024/25.
What is the seasonality of soybean prices? ›
Cash soybean prices seasonally are lowest in October at harvest time when the new crop supply becomes available. Prices season- ally increase during the winter and early spring months, peak in May, and decline through the summer months.
Why soybean is in high demand? ›
Majorly fuelling demand in the global soybean market is the rising awareness among people about its health benefits. Their increasing applications in various end-use segments such as animal feed is also serving to boost demand.
What is a soybean future? ›
What Are Soybean Futures? Soybean futures are an exchange traded and regulated futures contract in which the buyer agrees to take a delivery on a pre-determined amount of soybeans for a pre-determined price on a pre-determined date.
-and-2021-vs-2022-year-over-year-change.png?sfvrsn=eddebff0_1 "Soybeans Market Snapshots (2)")
