Solana's Network Activity Data Achieved A Record High, Bitcoin Halving Time is Less than 120 Days (2024)

On December 23rd, well-known crypto influencer Arthur Hayes posted a lengthy article on his blog, delving into topics such as changes in Federal Reserve policy, regulated decentralized finance (Permissioned DeFi), real-world assets (RWA), and Bitcoin ETFs. Hayes believes that Bitcoin and cryptocurrency are the best ways to combat the depreciation of fiat currencies. He compares them to gold, the S&P 500 index, and the Nasdaq 100 index, pointing out that since 2020, Bitcoin has performed far better than other risky assets. When discussing policy changes at the Federal Reserve, Hayes particularly emphasized the significant impact of political factors on Federal Reserve decisions.

He pointed out that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell once emphasized the necessity of raising interest rates to cope with runaway inflation during the post pandemic period. However, based on recent statements and actions, there seems to be a significant shift in the Federal Reserve’s policy, and it is beginning to consider possible interest rate cuts in 2024. This policy shift reflects the direct impact of the current political situation in the United States on the Federal Reserve’s policies. Hayes analysis suggests that this policy change may stem from pressure from political leadership, especially in major election years. In order to gain voter support, political leaders may prefer to adopt loose monetary policies to stimulate economic growth and improve the performance of financial markets, even if this may lead to long-term inflation risks.

Hayes is critical of regulated decentralized finance (Permissioned DeFi). He believes that this financial model, which combines centralized and decentralized elements, violates the core principles of decentralization and may only be another way for traditional financial institutions (TradFi) to try to leverage retail investors. Regarding the tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs), Hayes believes that although this attempt may sound attractive, it will face many challenges in practical operation. He specifically pointed out that tokenizing assets such as real estate and bonds may be difficult to succeed due to a lack of standardization and liquidity.

Finally, Hayes holds a reserved attitude towards Bitcoin ETFs. He proposed that if ETFs are heavily held and stored by traditional financial institutions without utilizing the Bitcoin blockchain, it may pose a threat to the value and existence of Bitcoin. He emphasized that Bitcoin is different from other currency assets in history, as its value lies in its liquidity and usage, rather than just holding.

On December 24th, according to the Bitcoin lockhalf website, the current block height is less than 120 days away from the halving time of Bitcoin. The halving time is expected to be April 22nd, 2024, and the block reward will be reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC during the session.

On December 25th, according to Token Unlocks data, this week DYDX, YGG, IMX, OP and other tokens will experience a one-time large unlock, with a total release value of approximately $205 million. Among them:

At 12:00 (UTC) on December 26th, dYdX will unlock 575,000 DYDXs (approximately $1.73 million), accounting for 0.21% of the circulating supply; In addition, DYDX will add 35.49 million circulating tokens (approximately $106 million) this week, accounting for 13.19% of the circulating supply;

At 14:00 (UTC) on December 27th, Yield Guild Games will unlock 16.69 million YGGs (approximately $7.15 million), accounting for 5.94% of the circulating supply;

At 0:00 (UTC) on December 28th, SingularityNET will unlock 9.25 million AGIXs (approximately $3.26 million), accounting for 0.74% of the circulating supply;

At 0:00 (UTC) on December 29th, Immotable will unlock 1.22 million IMX per day for 28 consecutive days (approximately $2.99 million per day), accounting for 2.83% of the circulating supply;

At 4:00 (UTC) on December 30th, Optimism will unlock 24.16 million OPs (approximately $79.97 million), accounting for 2.65% of the circulating supply;

At 4:00 (UTC) on December 31st, Sui will unlock 4 million SUIs (approximately $2.92 million), accounting for 0.39% of the circulating supply;

Main Token Trends

BTC

Last week, BTC price consistently closed above $42,500. This morning, it closed retracing to the midpoint of the channel. This week is expected to test two resistance targets: $45,345 and $47,990. The support levels are holding at $40,280 and $38,399, indicating continued high-level volatility in the medium term.

ETH

ETH price maintained high-level oscillation above $2,135 last week. This week anticipates a continuation of the upward trend, targeting $2,489 and $2,838 in the medium term. Utilizing a risk-reward strategy for spot and contracts, with a short-term focus on support at $2,135.

COMP

The daily chart for COMP has converged for a year and a half, signaling a potential upward movement. This week may bring a bullish trend, with support at the trend upper boundary and $54.82 for COMP. Breakthrough targets include $64.97, $72.85, $77.71, and $81.64.

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