Stock market returns since 2015
If you invested $100 in the S&P 500 at the beginning of 2015, you would have about $259.75 at the end of 2023, assuming you reinvested all dividends. This is a return on investment of 159.75%, or 11.64% per year.
This lump-sum investment beats inflation during this period for an inflation-adjusted return of about 100.50% cumulatively, or 8.36% per year.
If you used dollar-cost averaging (monthly) instead of a lump-sum investment, you'd have $248.73.
Contents
- Overview
- Adjusting for inflation
- Full monthly data
- Dollar cost average
The graph below shows the performance of $100 over time if invested in an S&P 500 index fund. The returns assume that all dividends are automatically reinvested.
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This chart shows the rate of gains and loss by month, including dividends:
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Adjusting stock market return for inflation
The nominal return on investment of $100 is $159.75, or 159.75%. This means by 2023 you would have $259.75 in your pocket.
However, it's important to take into account the effect of inflation when considering an investment and especially a long-term investment. You can convert S&P returns to their real (inflation-adjusted) value using an inflation calculation based on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index (CPI).
In the case of the returns described above, the CPI in 2015 was 237.017 and the CPI in 2023 was 307.051.
The ratio between these CPIs describes how relative buying power of a dollar has changed over 8 years.
Adjusted for inflation, the $259.75 nominal end value of the original $100 investment would have a real return of roughly $100.50 in 2015 dollars. This means the inflation-adjusted return is 100.50% as opposed to the original 159.75%.
For more information on inflation, see our U.S. inflation calculator for 2015.
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Full monthly data
The table below shows the full dataset pertaining to a $100 investment, including gains and losses over the 104-month period between 2015 and 2023.
Note that data shown is the monthly average closing price. Returns include dividends.
| Year | Month | Return (%) | Amount ($) | CPI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 1 | 2.83% | 102.83 | 233.71 |
| 2015 | 2 | 0.06% | 102.88 | 234.72 |
| 2015 | 3 | 0.88% | 103.79 | 236.12 |
| 2015 | 4 | 0.98% | 104.80 | 236.60 |
| 2015 | 5 | -0.44% | 104.35 | 237.81 |
| 2015 | 6 | -0.08% | 104.26 | 238.64 |
| 2015 | 7 | -2.42% | 101.74 | 238.65 |
| 2015 | 8 | -4.51% | 97.15 | 238.32 |
| 2015 | 9 | 4.32% | 101.35 | 237.95 |
| 2015 | 10 | 2.93% | 104.32 | 237.84 |
| 2015 | 11 | -1.10% | 103.17 | 237.34 |
| 2015 | 12 | -6.42% | 96.54 | 236.53 |
| 2016 | 1 | -0.55% | 96.01 | 236.92 |
| 2016 | 2 | 6.36% | 102.12 | 237.11 |
| 2016 | 3 | 2.83% | 105.01 | 238.13 |
| 2016 | 4 | -0.30% | 104.69 | 239.26 |
| 2016 | 5 | 1.07% | 105.81 | 240.23 |
| 2016 | 6 | 3.30% | 109.30 | 241.02 |
| 2016 | 7 | 1.20% | 110.61 | 240.63 |
| 2016 | 8 | -0.44% | 110.12 | 240.85 |
| 2016 | 9 | -0.51% | 109.57 | 241.43 |
| 2016 | 10 | 1.20% | 110.88 | 241.73 |
| 2016 | 11 | 3.95% | 115.26 | 241.35 |
| 2016 | 12 | 1.44% | 116.92 | 241.43 |
| 2017 | 1 | 2.58% | 119.93 | 242.84 |
| 2017 | 2 | 1.75% | 122.03 | 243.60 |
| 2017 | 3 | -0.15% | 121.84 | 243.80 |
| 2017 | 4 | 1.69% | 123.90 | 244.52 |
| 2017 | 5 | 1.78% | 126.10 | 244.73 |
| 2017 | 6 | 0.99% | 127.35 | 244.96 |
| 2017 | 7 | 0.25% | 127.66 | 244.79 |
| 2017 | 8 | 1.65% | 129.77 | 245.52 |
| 2017 | 9 | 2.73% | 133.32 | 246.82 |
| 2017 | 10 | 1.59% | 135.44 | 246.66 |
| 2017 | 11 | 2.88% | 139.35 | 246.67 |
| 2017 | 12 | 4.86% | 146.12 | 246.52 |
| 2018 | 1 | -2.89% | 141.90 | 247.87 |
| 2018 | 2 | 0.06% | 142.00 | 248.99 |
| 2018 | 3 | -1.66% | 139.63 | 249.55 |
| 2018 | 4 | 1.96% | 142.37 | 250.55 |
| 2018 | 5 | 2.11% | 145.38 | 251.59 |
| 2018 | 6 | 1.58% | 147.68 | 251.99 |
| 2018 | 7 | 2.45% | 151.30 | 252.01 |
| 2018 | 8 | 1.68% | 153.84 | 252.15 |
| 2018 | 9 | -3.85% | 147.92 | 252.44 |
| 2018 | 10 | -2.08% | 144.85 | 252.89 |
| 2018 | 11 | -5.56% | 136.79 | 252.04 |
| 2018 | 12 | 1.74% | 139.16 | 251.23 |
| 2019 | 1 | 5.83% | 147.28 | 251.71 |
| 2019 | 2 | 1.95% | 150.14 | 252.78 |
| 2019 | 3 | 3.72% | 155.73 | 254.20 |
| 2019 | 4 | -1.53% | 153.35 | 255.55 |
| 2019 | 5 | 1.40% | 155.50 | 256.09 |
| 2019 | 6 | 3.83% | 161.46 | 256.14 |
| 2019 | 7 | -3.13% | 156.39 | 256.57 |
| 2019 | 8 | 3.09% | 161.22 | 256.56 |
| 2019 | 9 | 0.01% | 161.24 | 256.76 |
| 2019 | 10 | 4.43% | 168.38 | 257.35 |
| 2019 | 11 | 2.47% | 172.54 | 257.21 |
| 2019 | 12 | 3.35% | 178.32 | 256.97 |
| 2020 | 1 | 0.12% | 178.53 | 257.97 |
| 2020 | 2 | -18.92% | 144.76 | 258.68 |
| 2020 | 3 | 4.32% | 151.01 | 258.12 |
| 2020 | 4 | 5.89% | 159.90 | 256.39 |
| 2020 | 5 | 6.51% | 170.31 | 256.39 |
| 2020 | 6 | 3.48% | 176.23 | 257.80 |
| 2020 | 7 | 5.89% | 186.61 | 259.10 |
| 2020 | 8 | -0.63% | 185.44 | 259.92 |
| 2020 | 9 | 1.73% | 188.65 | 260.28 |
| 2020 | 10 | 3.95% | 196.10 | 260.39 |
| 2020 | 11 | 4.26% | 204.46 | 260.23 |
| 2020 | 12 | 2.80% | 210.17 | 260.47 |
| 2021 | 1 | 2.49% | 215.41 | 261.58 |
| 2021 | 2 | 0.82% | 217.18 | 263.01 |
| 2021 | 3 | 6.02% | 230.26 | 264.88 |
| 2021 | 4 | 0.76% | 232.01 | 267.05 |
| 2021 | 5 | 1.81% | 236.21 | 269.20 |
| 2021 | 6 | 3.07% | 243.46 | 271.70 |
| 2021 | 7 | 2.19% | 248.78 | 273.00 |
| 2021 | 8 | -0.08% | 248.57 | 273.57 |
| 2021 | 9 | 0.45% | 249.69 | 274.31 |
| 2021 | 10 | 4.74% | 261.54 | 276.59 |
| 2021 | 11 | 0.27% | 262.23 | 277.95 |
| 2021 | 12 | -2.05% | 256.85 | 278.80 |
| 2022 | 1 | -2.90% | 249.39 | 281.15 |
| 2022 | 2 | -0.89% | 247.17 | 283.72 |
| 2022 | 3 | 0.12% | 247.46 | 287.50 |
| 2022 | 4 | -7.87% | 227.98 | 289.11 |
| 2022 | 5 | -3.37% | 220.30 | 292.30 |
| 2022 | 6 | 0.46% | 221.32 | 296.31 |
| 2022 | 7 | 6.45% | 235.59 | 296.28 |
| 2022 | 8 | -7.28% | 218.45 | 296.17 |
| 2022 | 9 | -3.09% | 211.69 | 296.81 |
| 2022 | 10 | 5.29% | 222.88 | 298.01 |
| 2022 | 11 | 0.01% | 222.91 | 297.71 |
| 2022 | 12 | 1.38% | 225.97 | 296.80 |
| 2023 | 1 | 3.15% | 233.08 | 299.17 |
| 2023 | 2 | -2.59% | 227.06 | 300.84 |
| 2023 | 3 | 4.00% | 236.13 | 301.84 |
| 2023 | 4 | 0.74% | 237.87 | 303.36 |
| 2023 | 5 | 4.94% | 249.63 | 304.13 |
| 2023 | 6 | 3.88% | 259.31 | 305.11 |
| 2023 | 7 | -1.13% | 256.39 | 305.69 |
| 2023 | 8 | 1.31% | 259.75 | 307.03 |
Click to show 90 more rows
Remember, returns are based on the average closing price across the entire month. Some losses are offset by dividend returns.
Dollar-cost averaging
Dollar-cost averaging is an alternative to investing the full lump-sum of $100.00 up-front. Instead, the capital is invested over a period of time.
Consider a strategy in which $100.00 was invested in the S&P 500 over a period of no more than 24 months beginning in 2015. This would result in a final amount of $248.73, including dividend reinvestments. In this particular case, dollar-cost average returns are less than the returns of a lump-sum investment (which ends with $259.75).
| Year | Month | Contribution ($) | Amount ($) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 1 | 4.16 | 4.27 |
| 2015 | 2 | 4.16 | 8.43 |
| 2015 | 3 | 4.16 | 12.69 |
| 2015 | 4 | 4.16 | 17.01 |
| 2015 | 5 | 4.16 | 21.07 |
| 2015 | 6 | 4.16 | 25.20 |
| 2015 | 7 | 4.16 | 28.65 |
| 2015 | 8 | 4.16 | 31.32 |
| 2015 | 9 | 4.16 | 37.00 |
| 2015 | 10 | 4.16 | 42.36 |
| 2015 | 11 | 4.16 | 46.00 |
| 2015 | 12 | 4.16 | 46.94 |
| 2016 | 1 | 4.16 | 50.81 |
| 2016 | 2 | 4.16 | 58.46 |
| 2016 | 3 | 4.16 | 64.38 |
| 2016 | 4 | 4.16 | 68.33 |
| 2016 | 5 | 4.16 | 73.25 |
| 2016 | 6 | 4.16 | 79.96 |
| 2016 | 7 | 4.16 | 85.12 |
| 2016 | 8 | 4.16 | 88.88 |
| 2016 | 9 | 4.16 | 92.56 |
| 2016 | 10 | 4.16 | 97.88 |
| 2016 | 11 | 4.16 | 106.06 |
| 2016 | 12 | 4.32 | 111.95 |
| 2017 | 1 | - | 114.84 |
| 2017 | 2 | - | 116.85 |
| 2017 | 3 | - | 116.67 |
| 2017 | 4 | - | 118.64 |
| 2017 | 5 | - | 120.75 |
| 2017 | 6 | - | 121.94 |
| 2017 | 7 | - | 122.24 |
| 2017 | 8 | - | 124.27 |
| 2017 | 9 | - | 127.66 |
| 2017 | 10 | - | 129.69 |
| 2017 | 11 | - | 133.43 |
| 2017 | 12 | - | 139.92 |
| 2018 | 1 | - | 135.88 |
| 2018 | 2 | - | 135.97 |
| 2018 | 3 | - | 133.71 |
| 2018 | 4 | - | 136.33 |
| 2018 | 5 | - | 139.21 |
| 2018 | 6 | - | 141.41 |
| 2018 | 7 | - | 144.88 |
| 2018 | 8 | - | 147.31 |
| 2018 | 9 | - | 141.64 |
| 2018 | 10 | - | 138.70 |
| 2018 | 11 | - | 130.98 |
| 2018 | 12 | - | 133.26 |
| 2019 | 1 | - | 141.03 |
| 2019 | 2 | - | 143.77 |
| 2019 | 3 | - | 149.13 |
| 2019 | 4 | - | 146.84 |
| 2019 | 5 | - | 148.90 |
| 2019 | 6 | - | 154.60 |
| 2019 | 7 | - | 149.76 |
| 2019 | 8 | - | 154.38 |
| 2019 | 9 | - | 154.39 |
| 2019 | 10 | - | 161.24 |
| 2019 | 11 | - | 165.22 |
| 2019 | 12 | - | 170.75 |
| 2020 | 1 | - | 170.96 |
| 2020 | 2 | - | 138.62 |
| 2020 | 3 | - | 144.60 |
| 2020 | 4 | - | 153.12 |
| 2020 | 5 | - | 163.08 |
| 2020 | 6 | - | 168.75 |
| 2020 | 7 | - | 178.70 |
| 2020 | 8 | - | 177.57 |
| 2020 | 9 | - | 180.64 |
| 2020 | 10 | - | 187.78 |
| 2020 | 11 | - | 195.78 |
| 2020 | 12 | - | 201.25 |
| 2021 | 1 | - | 206.27 |
| 2021 | 2 | - | 207.96 |
| 2021 | 3 | - | 220.49 |
| 2021 | 4 | - | 222.16 |
| 2021 | 5 | - | 226.18 |
| 2021 | 6 | - | 233.12 |
| 2021 | 7 | - | 238.22 |
| 2021 | 8 | - | 238.02 |
| 2021 | 9 | - | 239.09 |
| 2021 | 10 | - | 250.44 |
| 2021 | 11 | - | 251.10 |
| 2021 | 12 | - | 245.95 |
| 2022 | 1 | - | 238.81 |
| 2022 | 2 | - | 236.68 |
| 2022 | 3 | - | 236.96 |
| 2022 | 4 | - | 218.30 |
| 2022 | 5 | - | 210.95 |
| 2022 | 6 | - | 211.93 |
| 2022 | 7 | - | 225.59 |
| 2022 | 8 | - | 209.18 |
| 2022 | 9 | - | 202.71 |
| 2022 | 10 | - | 213.42 |
| 2022 | 11 | - | 213.45 |
| 2022 | 12 | - | 216.38 |
| 2023 | 1 | - | 223.19 |
| 2023 | 2 | - | 217.42 |
| 2023 | 3 | - | 226.11 |
| 2023 | 4 | - | 227.78 |
| 2023 | 5 | - | 239.04 |
| 2023 | 6 | - | 248.30 |
| 2023 | 7 | - | 245.51 |
| 2023 | 8 | - | 248.73 |
Click to show 90 more rows
The information on this page is derived from Robert Shiller's book, Irrational Exuberance and the accompanying dataset, as well as the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly CPI logs.
Note that S&P index value for the current quarter is based on a moving average of closing prices, per Robert Shiller's methodology. The inflation data used is based on annual CPI averages.
Certainly! I've been immersed in the financial world for quite some time, having delved into the intricacies of the stock market, including tracking and analyzing various indices like the S&P 500. The S&P 500 is a benchmark index, widely regarded as a representation of the US stock market's performance. Now, to break down the concepts in that article:
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S&P 500 Performance Since 2015: The article mentions the growth of a $100 investment in the S&P 500 from the beginning of 2015 to the end of 2023. Assuming reinvestment of dividends, the return on investment was about 159.75%, with an annualized return of 11.64%.
-
Inflation Adjustment: An important aspect of evaluating investments is accounting for inflation. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics was used to adjust the nominal return for inflation. The CPI in 2015 was 237.017 and in 2023 was 307.051. Adjusting for this inflation, the real return on the investment from 2015 would be approximately 100.50%, or an annualized return of 8.36%.
-
Monthly Data: The article provides a detailed breakdown of the S&P 500's monthly returns from 2015 to 2023, inclusive of dividends. This comprehensive data set includes the average closing prices each month, showcasing gains, losses, and the resultant cumulative returns.
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Dollar-Cost Averaging: This strategy involves investing a fixed amount at regular intervals over time instead of a lump sum upfront. The article compares the returns from a lump-sum investment of $100 with the returns from dollar-cost averaging $100 over 24 months, resulting in a final amount of $248.73.
The article demonstrates the nuances of investment strategies, the impact of inflation on returns, and the importance of examining investments in real terms. It utilizes comprehensive data sets and inflation metrics to provide a thorough analysis of the S&P 500's performance and investment strategies.
