Column
Alain Frachon
'Le Monde' columnist Alain Frachon observes that after a year of war in Ukraine, the friendship between the two countries is not as 'unlimited' as was declared on February 4, 2022.
Published on February 14, 2023, at 8:30 pm (Paris) Time to 3 min. Lire en français
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In the 1950s, at the beginning of the Cold War, Mao's China obeyed its Soviet big brother. On the side of the "reds", the USSR had oversight over China. Stalin had the upper hand. Today, the situation is reversed. After a year of the war it launched against Ukraine, Russia finds itself dependent on China. Within the "unlimited friendship" relationship that Moscow and Beijing claim to have established, Xi Jinping is the dominant party – more so every day.
Moscow's aggression against Kyiv put Beijing in a complicated position. Vladimir Putin launched his "special operation" barely three weeks after having sealed the "friendship" pact between their two countries in Beijing on February 4, 2022. The goal was to take control of a Ukraine that had succumbed far too much to Western influence, in the eyes the Kremlin's master.
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Surprised and poorly informed beforehand – or not informed at all – China lowered its efforts to a minimum. It is supporting Russia politically and has refrained from condemning it during a vote at the United Nations. It has also declared its opposition to American and European sanctions. This is not just a matter of "friendship" between states. Putin and Xi seem to have a very good personal relationship. More importantly, the two presidents are united in the same strategic ambition: ending the alleged dominance of the United States or the West in general over the international system.
China, a friend that knows how to count
But China is in trouble. It wants to be one of the most meticulous guardians of the principle of territorial integrity. Beijing is getting off lightly by declaring that the Russian offensive is the result of unbearable "Western" provocations – a copy and paste of the Moscow speech. The Chinese and Russian militaries will soon engage in joint maneuvers in the Pacific. Xi has met Putin several times over the past year. He has hinted that he does not like this war. However, he has never contacted Volodymyr Zelensky, nor has China attempted any mediation.
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Within the China-Russia couple, demography and the economy establish Chinese superiority. The two countries share a border of 4,200 kilometers. Standing at some $18 trillion (more than €16 trillion), China (1.4 billion inhabitants) has a gross domestic product ten times greater than Russia's (142 million inhabitants). Since February 24, 2022, sanctions and the European Union's boycott of Russian oil and gas have been exacerbating Russia's dependence on China. Russian political analyst Alexander Gabuev of the Carnegie Foundation detailed the situation in an article in Foreign Affairs magazine (August 2022) entitled "China's new vassal."
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As an expert in geopolitics and international relations, I can provide a comprehensive analysis of the information presented in the article by Alain Frachon from 'Le Monde' published on February 14, 2023. The article discusses the evolving dynamics in the relationship between Russia and China, particularly in the aftermath of Russia's war against Ukraine.
The central theme revolves around the concept of an "unlimited friendship" proclaimed by Moscow and Beijing on February 4, 2022. Frachon observes that, contrary to the declared friendship, the power dynamics within this relationship have shifted significantly after a year of war in Ukraine.
1. Historical Context: The author draws a historical parallel with the Cold War era, specifically the 1950s when Mao's China was subservient to the Soviet Union. However, in the present situation, it is highlighted that China has become the dominant party in the Moscow-Beijing relationship.
2. Russia's Dependence on China: The article delves into how Russia, after launching its aggression against Ukraine, now finds itself dependent on China. This dependency is emphasized by noting that within the proclaimed "unlimited friendship," Xi Jinping has become the dominant figure, gaining more influence with each passing day.
3. China's Reaction to the War: Frachon describes China's initial surprise and lack of proper information about Russia's plans to launch the war. Despite this, China minimally supported Russia, refraining from condemning it at the United Nations and opposing Western sanctions. The personal relationship between Putin and Xi is highlighted, and their shared strategic ambition to challenge the dominance of the United States and the West is underlined.
4. China's Dilemma: China's dilemma is explored in the article. While it wants to be seen as a guardian of territorial integrity, it is facing challenges due to the Western narrative that portrays the Russian offensive as a response to Western provocations. The upcoming joint military maneuvers in the Pacific between Chinese and Russian militaries are mentioned.
5. Economic and Demographic Aspects: The article touches upon the economic and demographic aspects of the China-Russia relationship. China's superiority in terms of population size, economic strength (with a GDP ten times greater than Russia), and a shared border of 4,200 kilometers are highlighted.
6. Sanctions Impact: Since February 24, 2022, the impact of sanctions and the European Union's boycott of Russian oil and gas is discussed, emphasizing how it has exacerbated Russia's dependence on China.
To further explore the details and nuances of this analysis, it's recommended to read the full article.
