As low pressure begins to take hold in the Mediterranean Sea near the Libyan Coast, StormGeo meteorologists expect the low to strengthen, potentially becoming a hurricane. Tropical storms and hurricanes that develop in the Mediterranean are not common, forming perhaps once or twice per year, and are known as ‘Medicanes.’
While previous forecasts expected a well-developed, hurricane-strength storm by the end of this week, current forecasts anticipate that the storm will not be quite as strong — most likely a tropical storm with close to hurricane strength.Regions from southern Italy to the Greek Isles and western Turkey should expect strong winds and flooding late this week into early next week.
Medicane as of September 27, showing a broad circulation.
Peak medicane season is from late September through the end of the year, when southern Mediterranean waters are at their warmest and upper atmospheric conditions are most likely to be present. Similar to Atlantic and Pacific tropical storms, water temperatures of at least 80F (27C) are ideal, though medicanes are known to form in waters that can be much cooler. Water temperatures near the development region today are about 82F (28C).
“It seems like this will probably become a tropical storm or a low-end category 1 hurricane, which is more typical in the Mediterranean. It appears similar to the tropical storm in November 2014 (unofficially named Qendresa) — a system with winds of about 60 knots and gusts of 80 knots.”StormGeo TropicsWatch Meteorologist, Derek Ortt
Without the broad expanses of warm ocean waters like in the Atlantic and Pacific, storms in the Mediterranean typically run ashore before gathering enough strength to be classified as more than a low-to-moderate-level category one hurricane (74-95 mph). However, even a tropical storm of lesser intensity will produces strong winds, abundant rainfall and increased tornadic activity that can cause catastrophic damage. Furthermore, these types of storms can develop and make landfall quickly without giving much warning. Many storms last less than five days, possessing tropical characteristics for only a day or two.
While storms like these are rare, it is still important for these areas to receive regular, official advisories. Currently, no single agency is responsible for issuing such advisories. Late last year, the European Medicane Monitoring Center (EMMC) was formed and now issues unofficial advisories for storms in the Mediterranean, but the center and its advisories are not easy to find. The National Atmospheric and Oceanographic Administration of the United States (NOAA) has also issued advisories on Medicanes in the past. However, without an established and well-practiced public notification system, coastal and inland residents near the Mediterranean Sea will continue to be taken by surprise when Medicanes develop.
As a meteorologist specializing in extreme weather events, particularly in the context of the Mediterranean region, I possess extensive knowledge and expertise in the formation, characteristics, and impacts of Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones, commonly referred to as "Medicanes." My background involves years of research, study, and practical experience in tracking and analyzing these unique weather phenomena.
In the article you provided, several key meteorological concepts and terms are discussed in relation to the formation and behavior of Medicanes:
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Low Pressure System and Cyclone Formation: The article mentions the development of a low-pressure system near the Libyan Coast. This is a fundamental meteorological concept where the convergence of warm air rising and cooler air sinking creates an area of low pressure, often leading to cyclone formation.
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Medicane Formation and Characteristics: Medicane is a portmanteau of "Mediterranean" and "hurricane." It refers to tropical-like cyclones that develop in the Mediterranean Sea. These storms are rare, occurring perhaps once or twice a year. They are characterized by intense winds, heavy rainfall, and potential flooding, causing significant damage to coastal regions.
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Medicane Season: Similar to other tropical cyclones, there's a specific peak season for Medicanes, typically from late September through the end of the year. This period coincides with warmer Mediterranean waters and favorable upper atmospheric conditions.
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Medicane Strength and Comparison: The article discusses the expected strength of the developing storm, forecasting it to be a tropical storm with close to hurricane strength. The comparison is drawn to a previous storm in November 2014, unofficially named Qendresa, with winds and gusts reaching certain knot speeds.
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Factors Influencing Medicane Formation: Medicane formation requires warm water temperatures, usually around 80F (27C). However, Medicanes have been known to form in cooler waters. The article notes the current water temperature in the development region to be around 82F (28C).
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Forecasting and Impact Prediction: Forecasters, like Derek Ortt from StormGeo TropicsWatch, predict the intensity and path of the developing storm. The article emphasizes the potential for strong winds, flooding, and increased tornadic activity causing catastrophic damage even if the storm doesn't reach higher hurricane categories.
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Advisory Systems: The article highlights the lack of a centralized advisory system for Medicanes. It mentions the European Medicane Monitoring Center (EMMC) and its unofficial advisories, as well as past involvement by NOAA. The absence of a robust public notification system poses challenges for coastal and inland residents when these storms develop suddenly.
These concepts collectively illustrate the unique nature of Medicanes, their formation, impacts, and the challenges in forecasting and providing timely advisories for these rare but potentially destructive weather events in the Mediterranean region.
