ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF (SQQQ): Bearish Pressure Mounting - Good Time To Hedge (2024)

ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF (SQQQ): Bearish Pressure Mounting - Good Time To Hedge (1)

There has been an overwhelming increase in historically bearish catalysts facing the stock market over the past few months. This includes not only the record valuations and high debt levels, which have been alarming for years, but more importantly, there has been a buildup in patterns that suggest high immediate downside risk.

In my view, record margin debt combined with low cash levels among investors puts the market in a highly precarious position. This means that investors are aggressively borrowing money to buy stocks and have minimal cash on hand. Historically, this has been know to cause small declines to become large as investors raise to fill margin requirements. As you can see below, low cash allocations and a buildup in margin debt preceded the disastrous dot-com crash in 2000:

ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF (SQQQ): Bearish Pressure Mounting - Good Time To Hedge (2)

In both 2000 and 2008, margin debt was high, and investor cash allocations were below normal. The major difference between those periods and today is that overall margin debt is much higher. Of course, virtually all forms of debt are at record levels today as well.

To make matters worse, the "economic recovery" following the end of COVID restrictions shows considerable signs of weakness now that government stimulus is/has ended. The Citigroup economic surprise index recently dipped back into negative territory, which means most economic data coming out today is worse than expected. This is historically bearish for the stock market.

Understandably, the inflationary impact of supply-chain and labor pressures creates some issues in economic data. Inflation is historically viewed as a sign of a strong economy, but the opposite is true when it occurs due to supply stagflationary pressures. The economy is already in a precarious position. Still, it seems likely that the surging repurchase market activity may force the Federal Reserve to increase rates and end Q.E. to stop the inflationary impact of negative rates. I firmly believe this may soon cause a "taper tantrum" crash in the market.

Now, I know many investors do not wish to hear of "doom and gloom" outlooks. I am not saying a major crash is guaranteed. However, I am saying that historical patterns suggest that significant crashes often occur with the economic and financial data where it is today. More on this in "The Stock Market May Soon Lose Half (Or More) Of Its Value - Prudence Is Key It is true that "market timing" has a negative connotation among retail investors. That said, the "smart/institutional money" investors have been racing to sell stocks today retail investors are the only group still buying. In my opinion, this should be taken as a warning sign that those 'in the know' see that it may be a good time to reduce risk.

I believe very few assets will be safe if this bearish potentiality becomes a reality. Precious metals offer some safety, though I believe physical is best today due to delivery risks in the "paper market." For those who want to stay long equities, utilities may be a decent option, as described in "XLU: Utilities Offer Unique Value In A Rapidly Shifting World." That said, it seems that gold, utilities (and other defensive stocks), and bonds may continue all decline during a sell-off due to liquidity risk factors. As such, it may be a sensible time to consider hedging through a short ETF like ProShares' NASDAQ:SQQQ.

Using SQQQ As A Hedge Or Short Bet

SQQQ is an ETF that delivers -3X the return of the Nasdaq 100. I believe the NASDAQ has the greatest downside risk of the major market indices due to the buildup in retail speculation in technology stocks. As such, strategies that offer inverse correlation to these technology stocks may have the most upside during a crash. SQQQ's performance is similar to a "long volatility" strategy such as the long VIX ETF (VXX). See below:

ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF (SQQQ): Bearish Pressure Mounting - Good Time To Hedge (3)

As you can see, both VXX and SQQQ have negative returns most months. However, during market crashes such as the initial COVID-crash in March 2020, SQQQ surged about 100% while VXX rose around 400%. This was partly because the VIX index was at shallow levels before the crash, so it had a tremendous upside potential. Today, the VIX is still a bit high while the Nasdaq is extremely high, which means SQQQ has a strong chance to outperform VXX during a crash.

Like most levered and inverse ETFs, SQQQ tends to decline over time due to leverage decay and the fact that stocks generally rise in the long run. As such, SQQQ is best suited for a holding period with a maximum of about three months. Historically, SQQQ decays around 7-8% per month, though this would likely be around 4-5% per month during a flat market such as that experienced so far this year.

While the decay rate of SQQQ is high, I believe the fund has a high probability of rising roughly 50% during a correction and much more if the market crashes as severely as I believe possible. As such, buyers of SQQQ today will need the market to experience a correction within around three to six months to break even. Considering there are many immediate bearish catalysts building today, I personally believe we may see at least a correction within the next two months. In my opinion, this means SQQQ may be a decent speculative bet on the market today.

I can imagine many investors may not want to gain from a market decline but instead are looking to hedge long positions. This is one way for investors to protect themselves against downside risk without realizing profits and paying taxes. Ideally, a portfolio's beta (market risk) can be neutralized by placing 25% of assets in SQQQ and maintaining 75% of assets stocks. Such an allocation will still have some drag, though it should be significantly less than a highly speculative 100% SQQQ portfolio. This could also be a decent strategy for investors concerned about downside risk but are not interested in short-term speculation/market timing.

The Bottom Line

Importantly, if SQQQ rises as I expect, I would not plan on holding much past $20-$40. If the stock market crashes much more than around 30%, I believe it could fall much further due to extreme debt and liquidity risks. However, this situation would create counterparty risk such as that which occurred in 2008 wherein some short bets struggled to receive their due payment due to the collapse of many financial institutions. While I am not predicting another wave of banking collapses, many of the issues which led to the 2008 collapse are likely worse today. This includes high leverage and highly aggressive risk exposure.

Overall, I believe that SQQQ may see a breakout as the market faces what I believe to be a high probability of a correction or crash over the summer. This is by no means guaranteed but is based on data that suggests a preponderance of bearish catalyst and high downside risks. Often, investors' bullish emotional fervor can cause stocks to temporarily rise dramatically even when the data suggests they "should" fall. I believe we've already seen this "blow-off top" pattern and that the crash in cryptocurrencies is a canary in the coal mine for a much broader crash. While it is certainly possible that the NASDAQ's momentum returns, I do not believe I have ever seen as many historically bearish signals as I do today.

This article was written by

Harrison Schwartz

13.5K

Follower

s

Harrison is a financial analyst who has been writing on Seeking Alpha since 2018 and has closely followed the market for over a decade. He has professional experience in the private equity, real estate, and economic research industry. Harrison also has an academic background in financial econometrics, economic forecasting, and global monetary economics.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in SQQQ over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF (SQQQ): Bearish Pressure Mounting - Good Time To Hedge (2024)

FAQs

Is it good to hold SQQQ? ›

This fund is not suitable for a long-term hold; investors who buy-and-hold SQQQ find their returns badly damaged by expenses and decay. Several key factors prevent SQQQ from serving as an acceptable core holding in an investor's portfolio. The first is the short-term focus of the fund; it is not a buy-and-hold ETF.

Should you hold SQQQ overnight? ›

It is important to remember that these securities are designed for daily use only, and are not intended to be held overnight, because their returns over longer periods generally do not match the ETP's negative multiple of the underlying index over longer periods.

How long do people hold SQQQ? ›

What this means in layman terms is that the SQQQ is only designed to provide 3x inverse returns for one day. For any holding period longer than 1 day, the returns expectations will differ.

What is ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ SQQQ? ›

ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to three times the inverse (-3x) of the daily performance of the Nasdaq-100 Index®.

Is QQQ good for long term investment? ›

QQQ stock is a great option for investors who want to make sure they don't miss out on the next Amazon or Google. When leading Nasdaq stocks get big, they land on the QQQ. This is a low-fuss way to own a diversified basket of hot stocks.

Can you hold inverse ETF long term? ›

Inverse ETFs aren't for long term investors since they are designed to be held for a period of not more than a day. At the end of most trading days, instruments such as ETFs and inverse ETFs, especially if they are leveraged, undergo an operation called rebalancing.

How long should you leave money in an ETF? ›

“As a rule of thumb, ETF investors should avoid the first and last 30 minutes of trading,” said Matt Hougan, CEO of Inside ETFs. You may want to try to outsmart the market volatility and limit your risk with a stop-loss order, which tells the broker to sell an ETF when it reaches a certain price.

Can you hold 3x ETF long term? ›

The idea behind 3x ETFs is to take advantage of quick day-to-day movements in financial markets. In the long term, new risks arise. Because of how leveraged ETFs are constructed, they are only intended for very short holding periods, such as intraday.

How does SQQQ make money? ›

The SQQQ is an extremely aggressive 3x leveraged ETF that seeks to allow investors to benefit from short term declines in the Nasdaq 100. The fund uses swaps on the NASDAQ-100 ETF (QQQ), swaps on the index itself, and futures to create the inverse exposure to the underlying market.

How long should I hold a 3x ETF? ›

A trader can hold the majority of these ETFs including TQQQ, FAS, TNA, SPXL, ERX, SOXL, TECL, USLV, EDC, and YINN for 150-250 days before suffering a 5% underperformance although a few, like NUGT, JNUG, UGAZ, UWT, and LABU are more volatile and suffer a 5% underperformance in less than 130 days and, in the case of JNUG ...

What happens if you hold leveraged ETFs long? ›

If you take away only one thing from this article, it's this: Leveraged ETFs are designed to track the daily performance of their index. They are short term trading instruments. If you hold them for the long term, you are literally leaving returns behind.

How long should I hold my shares? ›

Typically, the longer you are prepared to stay invested in the stock market, the greater the chance of positive returns. This means holding your investments for at least five years, and ideally far longer.

Does SQQQ reset every day? ›

Investors should note that SQQQ's leverage resets on a daily basis, which results in compounding of returns when held for multiple periods. SQQQ can be a powerful tool for sophisticated investors, but should be avoided by those with a low risk tolerance or a buy-and-hold strategy.

Does SQQQ pay dividends? ›

SQQQ has a dividend yield of 0.37% and paid $0.15 per share in the past year. The dividend is paid every six months and the last ex-dividend date was Dec 22, 2022.

Is QQQ a buy or sell? ›

QQQ Signals & Forecast

There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The QQQ ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term moving averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock.

Is QQQ a risky investment? ›

VOO tracks the S&P 500, and QQQ tracks the Nasdaq-100. Investing in QQQ is riskier, but it comes with the potential for higher rewards since this fund invests heavily in tech-related stocks, which are prone to rapid growth during a bull run.

How long should you hold QQQ? ›

Back tests show that TQQQ can be held longer term (1-Year) and beats QQQ but holding for too long (5 Years) can significantly worsen performance. Holding TQQQ for too long almost guarantees that you will encounter a protracted bear market that wipes out nearly your entire portfolio.

What is the 10 year average return on the QQQ? ›

Invesco QQQ Market Price: YTD: -32.65%; 1YR: -32.65%; 3YR: 8.52%; 5YR: 12.12%; 10YR: 16.22%; Since Inception: 7.86%.

What happens to inverse ETF if market crashes? ›

It's true that if a recession hits and the stock market goes down rapidly, an inverse ETF based on a broad index like the S&P 500 is likely to rise.

Can you lose more than you invest in inverse ETF? ›

An investor can only lose as much as they paid for the ETF with inverse ETFs. The inverse ETF becomes worthless in a worst-case scenario, but at least you won't owe anyone money, as you might when you short an asset in a traditional sense.

How do you make money on inverse ETFs? ›

Key Takeaways
  1. An inverse ETF is an exchange traded fund (ETF) constructed by using various derivatives to profit from a decline in the value of an underlying benchmark.
  2. Inverse ETFs allow investors to make money when the market or the underlying index declines, but without having to sell anything short.

When should you cash out ETF? ›

The top reasons for closing or liquidating an ETF include a lack of investor interest and a limited amount of assets. An investor may not choose an ETF because it is too narrowly-focused, too complex, or has a poor return on investment.

Do you pay taxes on ETF if you don't sell? ›

Just as with individual securities, when you sell shares of a mutual fund or ETF (exchange-traded fund) for a profit, you'll owe taxes on that "realized gain." But you may also owe taxes if the fund realizes a gain by selling a security for more than the original purchase price—even if you haven't sold any shares.

Do ETFs pay you monthly? ›

If you own shares of an exchange-traded fund (ETF), you may receive distributions in the form of dividends. These may be paid monthly or at some other interval, depending on the ETF.

Can 3x leveraged ETF go to zero? ›

Yes, although most would liquidate before they got there, paying shareholders off at some non-zero price. For example, suppose a 3x levered ETF is initially offered at $100/share. Even if the underlying declined by more than 33%, the ETF price would not be zero, because it rebalances daily.

What are 3 disadvantages to owning an ETF over a mutual fund? ›

So it's important for any investor to understand the downside of ETFs.
  • Disadvantages of ETFs. ETF trading comes with some drawbacks, which include the following:
  • Trading fees. ...
  • Operating expenses. ...
  • Low trading volume. ...
  • Tracking errors. ...
  • Potentially less diversification. ...
  • Hidden risks. ...
  • Lack of liquidity.

How many ETFs should I hold? ›

Experts agree that for most personal investors, a portfolio comprising 5 to 10 ETFs is perfect in terms of diversification. But the number of ETFs is not what you should be looking at. Rather, you should consider the number of different sources of risk you are getting with those ETFs.

Can you make money trading leveraged ETFs? ›

Leveraged ETFs offer the potential for significant gains that exceed the underlying index. Investors have a wide variety of securities to trade using leveraged ETFs. Investors can make money when the market is declining using inverse leveraged ETFs.

Is SQQQ a buy now? ›

SQQQ Signals & Forecast

The SQQQ ETF holds a buy signal from the short-term moving average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal.

How to invest with SQQQ? ›

How to buy SQQQ ETF on Public
  1. Sign up for a brokerage account on Public. It's easy to get started. ...
  2. Add funds to your Public account. ...
  3. Choose how much you'd like to invest in SQQQ ETF. ...
  4. Manage your investments in one place.

Should you hold ETFs long-term? ›

ETFs are very safe and are an excellent option for long-term investments. According to experts, ETFs are not that volatile and show a slight change in their prices compared to stocks and indices because they are diversified and pooled investments of many investors.

Should you invest in ETFs for long-term? ›

ETFs can help you build a strong foundation for your long-term investment portfolio. Think of them as building blocks. They offer low-cost funds designed to give you instant access to a broad range of assets, giving you a diverse foundation for your portfolio.

Does QQQ decay over time? ›

During the periods of volatility decay, TQQQ underperforms QQQ by an average of 8.4% per year.

Are leveraged stocks risky? ›

Because leveraged single-stock ETFs in particular amplify the effect of price movements of the underlying individual stocks, investors holding these funds will experience even greater volatility and risk than investors who hold the underlying stock itself.

Why you shouldn't hold leveraged tokens long term? ›

Holding Leveraged Tokens Long-Term

Leveraged tokens are not intended for long-term investment. Instead, they're more suitable for short-term investment and trend-trading. Holding them for long periods will expose you to greater risk.

Should you buy and hold leveraged ETFs? ›

A leveraged ETF uses borrowed money, futures, and swaps to increase the returns of an index, commodity, or other types of investments. They greatly increase the risk that comes with ETFs and are not recommended for beginner investors.

How long should I hold a stock to make profit? ›

Though there is no ideal time for holding stock, you should stay invested for at least 1-1.5 years. If you see the stock price of your share booming, you will have the question of how long do you have to hold stock? Remember, if it is zooming today, what will be its price after ten years?

How long must I hold a stock before I can sell it? ›

There's no minimum amount of time when an investor needs to hold on to stock. But, investments that are sold at a gain are taxed at a capital gains tax rate. This rate changes, depending on whether the investor held onto the stock for more or less than one year.

How long do most people hold stocks? ›

If you follow the average stock holding period of 5.5 months you'll be subject to the short-term capital gains tax rate if you sell those investments for a profit. You could offset some of the tax impacts by harvesting short-term losses.

Why did SQQQ used to be so high? ›

A 1-for-5 reverse stock split is to blame for the SQQQ ETF's seemingly high returns. In addition, the stock split became “effective prior to market open on January 13, 2022,” or this morning.

Are leveraged ETFs good for day trading? ›

Leveraged ETFs have grown in popularity with the day trading crowd because the funds can generate returns very quickly—provided, of course, the trader is on the right side of the trade.

Should I hold SQQQ long-term? ›

The SQQQ is meant to be held intraday and is not a long-term investment, where expenses and decay will quickly eat into returns.

Can you live off ETF dividends? ›

Is it possible to live off dividends? Yes, some people are able to cover their expenses with cash flow from dividend income. It's not easy, and it takes a long-term focus, but it's definitely possible.

How often does QQQ pay a dividend? ›

Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ)

The dividend is paid every three months and the last ex-dividend date was Dec 19, 2022.

What is the forecast for SQQQ? ›

ProShares Trust - ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ -3x Shares quote is equal to 38.890 USD at 2023-03-10. Based on our forecasts, a long-term increase is expected, the "SQQQ" stock price prognosis for 2028-03-03 is 160.533 USD. With a 5-year investment, the revenue is expected to be around +312.79%.

How much does QQQ grow per year? ›

Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ): Historical Returns. In the last 30 Years, the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) ETF obtained a 13.03% compound annual return, with a 23.91% standard deviation. In 2022, the ETF granted a 0.54% dividend yield.

What are the top 5 holdings in QQQ? ›

  • Apple Inc. 12.37%
  • Microsoft Corp. 11.91%
  • NVIDIA Corp. 4.88%
  • Broadcom Inc. 2.10%
  • Cisco Systems Inc. 1.66%
  • Adobe Inc. 1.32%
  • Texas Instruments Inc. 1.31%
  • Advanced Micro Devices Inc. 1.13%

Is it good to hold on to leveraged ETFs? ›

If you take away only one thing from this article, it's this: Leveraged ETFs are designed to track the daily performance of their index. They are short term trading instruments. If you hold them for the long term, you are literally leaving returns behind. The mandate states that: (This is important!)

Should you hold leveraged ETFs? ›

In the long term, new risks arise. Because of how leveraged ETFs are constructed, they are only intended for very short holding periods, such as intraday. Over time, their value will tend to decay even if the underlying price movements are favorable.

Does SQQQ pay a dividend? ›

SQQQ pays a dividend of $0.15 per share.

How long should you hold a 3x leveraged ETF? ›

A trader can hold the majority of these ETFs including TQQQ, FAS, TNA, SPXL, ERX, SOXL, TECL, USLV, EDC, and YINN for 150-250 days before suffering a 5% underperformance although a few, like NUGT, JNUG, UGAZ, UWT, and LABU are more volatile and suffer a 5% underperformance in less than 130 days and, in the case of JNUG ...

What is the best 3x leveraged ETF? ›

  • The Best Leveraged ETFs of March 2023.
  • ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ)
  • ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (SQQQ)
  • ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY)
  • ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 ETF (UPRO)
  • Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3x ETF (TNA)
  • Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x ETF (SPXL)
  • Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x ETF (FAS)
Mar 2, 2023

How long can you hold a leveraged position? ›

Leveraged tokens are a basket of perpetual futures, which are essentially contract positions without an expiration date. This means that traders can purchase a leveraged token and hold their positions for as long as they wish.

Why not hold leveraged ETF long term? ›

Poor long-term holdings: Since leveraged ETFs are intended to amplify the daily returns of a benchmark index, they should only be used as short-term holdings. Leveraged ETFs see long-term returns that do not track the index, generally experience value erosion over time, and do not amplify returns in equal measure.

What are the predictions for SQQQ? ›

ProShares Trust - ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ -3x Shares quote is equal to 41.100 USD at 2023-03-11. Based on our forecasts, a long-term increase is expected, the "SQQQ" stock price prognosis for 2028-03-03 is 160.533 USD. With a 5-year investment, the revenue is expected to be around +290.59%.

Is QQQ a monthly dividend? ›

QQQ has a dividend yield of 0.71% and paid $2.14 per share in the past year. The dividend is paid every three months and the last ex-dividend date was Dec 19, 2022.

What kind of dividend does QQQ pay? ›

Historical dividend payout and yield for Invesco QQQ (QQQ) since 2005. The current TTM dividend payout for Invesco QQQ (QQQ) as of March 03, 2023 is $2.14. The current dividend yield for Invesco QQQ as of March 03, 2023 is 0.71%.

Top Articles
Latest Posts
Article information

Author: Aron Pacocha

Last Updated:

Views: 6372

Rating: 4.8 / 5 (68 voted)

Reviews: 83% of readers found this page helpful

Author information

Name: Aron Pacocha

Birthday: 1999-08-12

Address: 3808 Moen Corner, Gorczanyport, FL 67364-2074

Phone: +393457723392

Job: Retail Consultant

Hobby: Jewelry making, Cooking, Gaming, Reading, Juggling, Cabaret, Origami

Introduction: My name is Aron Pacocha, I am a happy, tasty, innocent, proud, talented, courageous, magnificent person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.