Passive Funds Versus Active Funds: The Conclusive Results (2024)

Despite terrifying actively managed fund results like this,

“84% of large-cap funds generated lower returns than the S&P 500 in the latest five-year period and 82% fell shy in the past 10 years.”

actively managed funds have somehow lived on, like blood-thirsty zombies. Not only that, but they are still thriving! In fact, as recently as April of this year, 67% of all invested U.S. assets were in actively managed funds.

I’ve discussed why active vs. passive investment levels are so backwards previously. In summary, it amounts to 4 things:

  1. A lack of good passive investment options in employer sponsored plans.
  2. Marketing and advertising dollars are poured into promoting actively managed funds, but not passive funds.
  3. Those not under fiduciary standard had not needed to disclose conflicts of interest. This was at the center of the White House’s call for an expansion of the fiduciary standard and the financial industry’s strong opposition to it.
  4. Human desire to outperform the averages.

While we don’t have much control over #1 – #3, we have plenty of control over #4. With actively managed funds having expense ratios that are so much higher than passively managed funds (in order to pay exorbitant salaries, bonuses, and advertising expenditures), the only reason to even consider opting for actively managed funds is hope for outperforming the index averages that passive funds try to match.

Fortunately, a recent Morningstar report, The Predictive Power of Fees, should throw some water over that hope.

“The lowest-cost U.S. equity funds succeeded three times as often as the highest-cost funds. The least-expensive quintile had a total return success rate of 62 percent, compared with 48 percent for the second-cheapest quintile, 39 percent for the middle quintile, 30 percent for the second-priciest quintile, and 20 percent for the most-expensive quintile…The pattern was pretty similar in other asset classes.”

Success ratio = the fund survived and outperformed the averages, by the way.

To recap, costs increased with each quintile and were less and less likely to “succeed”. Funds in the cheapest quintile were more than 3 times more likely to succeed in outperforming the average than those in the most expensive quintile! That’s not just conclusive, but it’s a freakin’ blowout! And it’s across all asset classes:

Passive Funds Versus Active Funds: The Conclusive Results (1)

And when you look at average performance for each quintile, the annual total return percentages really stick out:

Passive Funds Versus Active Funds: The Conclusive Results (2)

The author of the study definitively concludes,

“The expense ratio is the most proven predictor of future fund returns.”

Granted, the study isn’t a straight up passive vs. active fund comparison as linked to in the first article. However, most passive funds are going to fall into the first quintile, with their low expense ratios, while actively managed funds will mostly fall into the other quintiles. The takeaway is this: high expense ratios eat in to fund performance, outweighing any other perceived performance benefits. And actively managed funds have higher expense ratios than passively managed funds, and subsequently lower performance.

Of course, don’t just take it from me, take it from the greatest investor of all time, Warren Buffett. Warren Buffett recommends investing in index funds, and he even decided to put his money where his mouth is in a bet with hedge fund managers back in 2007.

Buffett made a $1M bet that by investing in an unmanaged, broad-market low-fee index fund (Vanguard’s S&P 500 index fund,VFINX), he could beat the performance of a high-powered hedge fund with a team of managers (and a hefty expense ratio). Here are the results:

Passive Funds Versus Active Funds: The Conclusive Results (3)

The passively managed VFINX tripled the total investment return of the hedge fund. And that included the Great Recession dip (where the hedge fund actually did win that year).

Here’s what Buffett had to say about the bet,

“[Losing by 40 points] may sound like a terrible result for the hedge funds, but it’s not a terrible result for the hedge fund managers. If you have a couple percentage points sliced off every year, that is a lot of money… It’s a compensation scheme that is unbelievable to me and that’s one reason I made this bet.”

Thanks for keeping it real, Warren.

As an amateur investor, you don’t need to place $1M bets. You can start using passive index investing to beat the pros at any time.

Related Posts:

  • Online Brokers with Commission-Free ETF Trading
  • How to Start an Online Broker Account
  • Vanguard Lowers Fees (Again)
Passive Funds Versus Active Funds: The Conclusive Results (2024)

FAQs

Do active funds perform better than passive funds? ›

While passive funds still dominate overall due to lower fees, some investors are willing to put up with the higher fees in exchange for the expertise of an active manager to help guide them amid all the volatility or wild market price fluctuations.

What is the difference between actively and passively managed funds select two correct answers? ›

Key Takeaways. Active management requires frequent buying and selling in an effort to outperform a specific benchmark or index. Passive management replicates a specific benchmark or index in order to match its performance.

What are passive vs active investing results? ›

For example, when the market is volatile or the economy is weakening, active managers may outperform more often than when it is not. Conversely, when specific securities within the market are moving in unison or equity valuations are more uniform, passive strategies may be the better way to go.

What is the major difference between active and passive mutual funds? ›

Active funds strive for higher returns and may provide better capital protection in turbulent markets but they come with higher costs and risks. Passive funds offer steady, long-term returns at lower costs but carry market-level risks.

What is the success rate of active funds? ›

Of the nearly 3,000 active funds included in our analysis, 47% survived and outperformed their average passive peer in 2023.

Why are passively managed funds better? ›

Passive investment is less expensive, less complex, and often produces superior after-tax results over medium to long time horizons when compared to actively managed portfolios.

Why do some investors prefer passive portfolio management? ›

Some investors prefer passive portfolio management due to its simplicity, lower costs, and long-term focus.

What is a drawback of actively managed funds? ›

Disadvantages of Active Management

Actively managed funds generally have higher fees and are less tax-efficient than passively managed funds. The investor is paying for the sustained efforts of investment advisers who specialize in active investment, and for the potential for higher returns than the markets as a whole.

Do actively managed funds outperform market? ›

In general, actively managed funds have failed to survive and beat their benchmarks, especially over longer time horizons. Just one out of every four active funds topped the average of passive rivals over the 10-year period ended June 2023. But success rates vary across categories.

Does active outperform passive? ›

From 2000 to 2009, active outperformed passive nine out of 10 times. During the 1990s, passive outperformed active five out of 10 times. And over the course of the past 35 years, active outperformed 17 times while passive outperformed 18 times. We've seen that the cyclical nature of active vs.

What are the 5 advantages of passive investing? ›

Advantages of Passive Investing
  • Steady Earning. Investing in Passive Funds means you're in it for a long race. ...
  • Fewer Efforts. As one of the most known benefits of passive investing, low maintenance is something that active investing surely lacks. ...
  • Affordable. ...
  • Lower Risk. ...
  • Saving on Capital Gain Tax.
Sep 29, 2022

What is active vs passive investing for dummies? ›

Active investments are funds run by investment managers who try to outperform an index over time, such as the S&P 500 or the Russell 2000. Passive investments are funds intended to match, not beat, the performance of an index.

What is the difference between active and passive investment management? ›

The objective of an active strategy is to achieve 'alpha' – in other words, to beat the market benchmark. “A passive strategy is more of a buy-and-hold strategy. You have to decide yourself when and how to reposition your exposure, whereas with active investing, it is done for you by the fund manager.”

What is the difference between active money and passive income? ›

Active income, generally speaking, is generated from tasks linked to your job or career that take up time. Passive income, on the other hand, is income that you can earn with relatively minimal effort, such as renting out a property or earning money from a business without much active participation.

What is an example of a passive fund? ›

Passively managed funds include passive index funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and Fund of funds investing in ETFs. These funds follow a benchmark and aim to deliver returns in tandem with the benchmark, subject to expense ratio and tracking error.

Do active mutual funds outperform passive mutual funds? ›

Most active funds lagging

Active equity funds rely on managers' decisions, while passive funds attempt to track indices efficiently. As per SPIVA, five out of 10 large-cap funds underperformed the S&P BSE 100, while over 73% of mid- and smallcap schemes lagged the S&P BSE 400 MidSmallCap in 2023.

Do actively managed funds do better? ›

An influential study[3] which used the concept of Active Share to assess returns over a 20-year period, found that the most active managers outperformed their benchmarks by 1.3 percent annually after fees whereas “closet indexers” unsurprisingly performed worst, lagging the benchmark by around 0.9 percent a year.

Do active funds perform better in down markets? ›

Therefore, active funds are more likely to beat the passive index funds during the down market. In this section, we compare the performance of the active funds and passive index funds over the business cycle. To determine the state of the economy, we the definition provided by NBER.

Do active mutual funds outperform the market? ›

It found that over the course of one year, 51.08% of actively-managed mutual funds underperformed the S&P 500, and 48.92% of actively-managed funds outperformed the S&P 500. * However, those numbers change dramatically over longer periods of time.

Top Articles
Latest Posts
Article information

Author: Kareem Mueller DO

Last Updated:

Views: 6017

Rating: 4.6 / 5 (66 voted)

Reviews: 81% of readers found this page helpful

Author information

Name: Kareem Mueller DO

Birthday: 1997-01-04

Address: Apt. 156 12935 Runolfsdottir Mission, Greenfort, MN 74384-6749

Phone: +16704982844747

Job: Corporate Administration Planner

Hobby: Mountain biking, Jewelry making, Stone skipping, Lacemaking, Knife making, Scrapbooking, Letterboxing

Introduction: My name is Kareem Mueller DO, I am a vivacious, super, thoughtful, excited, handsome, beautiful, combative person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.