Remember this? I bet the first time you saw it in December you laughed this picture off, but it's okay so did I. And if this is the first time you're seeing this, don't dismiss it just yet!
Because, well, the harsh truth is that its all real. And this market cycle, believe it or not, is present in every market out there, including these Bitcoin & Altcoin markets.
All markets work the same way. Can you see it? @QTMHoldings #QTM #wallstcheatsheet pic.twitter.com/BXEUlu1NfQ
— Alvin Lee (@onemanatatime) April 17, 2014If you haven't already, check out my previous posts earlier this year about trading Bitcoins and Altcoins, which highlighttechnical analysis basics,fundamental analysis frameworks,margin trading, and tips on developing a cryptocurrencytrading strategy and TA. Here, I just want to point out the importance of understanding market structure, introduce you to market manipulation, and show you how technical analysis can be applied to your cryptocurrency trading.
As you read on, keep these following points in mind as these rules apply even more closely:
- What goes up must come down
- Buy on rumors, sell on news
- All markets are linked to everything else
To take this one step further and understand the markets from an even wider perspective, the next thing to do is to put on your market manipulator hat. Check out these 2 really good resources covering this topic for a deeper understanding of what I'm trying to get at:
- Wolong's Game of Deception PDF:http://cryptofrenzy.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/god.pdf
- Pumps, Dumps, and Manipulated Markets:http://altcoinnewsletter.com/pumps-dumps-and-manipulated-markets/
The whole point of learning about how market manipulators operate is not to actually manipulate the markets yourself or conduct pump and dumps, but to actually spot when others are trying to do so. This can help your trading strategy in various ways such as to:
- Have a better understanding of the ebbs and flows of the market
- Avoid getting caught in their squeezes
- Identify a suspicious (potentially profitable) market
- Know what the "smartest man in the room"is doing, and follow the "smart money"
From Wolong's ebook, he broke down the market cycle into 7 stages, namely:
- Position Building
- Suppressing prices
- Test Pump
- Actual Pump
- Shakeouts
- Re-allocation and distribution
- Exiting - The Dump
If you compare the psychology chart above and the Pump & Dump cycle pointed out by Wolong, to the market structure chart below, you can see how they have very similar structures even though they use different terms to explain the phases.
Buy low sell high; easier said than done. Familiarize yourself with market structure. @QTMHoldings #QTM pic.twitter.com/DlOJ4yF6fE
— Alvin Lee (@onemanatatime) April 18, 2014And from this market structure chart, you can see that the stages can be further simplified to 4 phases:
- Accumulation
- Markup (Pump)
- Distribution
- Decline (Dump)
So why is this important, or how does it apply to the cryptocurrency markets? By understanding the market cycle chart, you will be able to better pick altcoins by spotting accumulation zones to join the breakout and profit, and to make your exit when you reach distribution zones. For example:
Hope you managed to get some #MYR at that 350-400 floor I mentioned #crystalball #QTM pic.twitter.com/W6NOjRFiBk
— Alvin Lee (@onemanatatime) May 2, 2014Although many people disregard the profitability (or possibility) of using technical analysis to trade the Bitcoin and especially Altcoins markets, it is most definitely possible. I think the problem lies predominantly in the limitation that some of you have put on the term 'technical analysis'.
If Technical Analysis to you means chart patterns, candles, and indicators; you're missing the big picture. #QTM
— Alvin Lee (@onemanatatime) April 23, 2014Every piece of information on that chart you use is part of technical analysis; but the bigger question is how to make sense of it all. To better understand TA, we should think of the price charts as simply agraph of human behaviour.
Although the tools to do so efficiently are sorely lacking at this point in time, here's just a few examples of TA used on Altcoins and Bitcoin.
The first ever Technical Analysis chart applied to altcoins on Dogecoin, from way back in January 2014:
@kazonomics: #doge. Watch new formation & levels of interest 255/280 pic.twitter.com/CPI5GOvoud”Prep for 300 satoshi with accurate break levels
— BigdaddyɃtc (@Bigdaddybtc) January 21, 2014Example of a markup on Blackcoin BC last month:
#BlackCoin downward price correction complete after rapid expansion. Price increasing steadily with rising support. pic.twitter.com/reuhaYzexz
— Mr Coins (@CryptoDabbler) April 17, 2014How a Dump looks like and when you should exit:
#wolong exit #blackcoin pic.twitter.com/gW4ONES1Ea
— Esteban Saa (@estebs) April 15, 2014Bitcoin on a Logarithmic scale:
To the moon!!! ┗(°0°)┛ pic.twitter.com/8a7u4AQPdd
— ToTheMoonGuy (@ToTheMoonGuy) April 12, 2014Once you can wrap you head around the following facts, and combine them with what I have covered in the previous posts, you should be well on your way to developing a profitable cryptocurrency trading strategy. So here's a recap of the key takeaways:
1) Markets are fundamentally fractal in nature; for every one up or down trend, you can zoom in/out too see the same wave cycles. Read more about Elliott Wave Theory here.
2) Price charts are merely a graph of human behaviour. It doesn't matter if you're looking at a 3h chart or a 30m chart, they all tell the same story. Make sure to always compare two different time frames to better understand the macro and micro trend.
3) All markets are linked to each other, and affect each other in a dynamic fashion to create one over-arching ecosystem. Don't forget those crash cycle charts I showed you at the beginning; they're everywhere.
4) All markets are manipulated. Ride the waves and profit with the whales; don't fight the macro trend.
@bdbon1 Crptyo might be dead tonight….but fx is busy…does this look familiar lol. Professional Pnd double ann pic.twitter.com/a9iebbCotK
— Kazonomics (@kazonomics) April 23, 2014With that, I'll just end off with a few words of wisdom.
First you know. Then you learn. Then you don't know.
— Alvin Lee (@onemanatatime) April 2, 2014Continue studying to improve your trading: BTT #34 by @DarvasTrader pic.twitter.com/XzTAjGXVPA
— Trading Cards (@TraderHMS) April 10, 2014This Chart Shows Exactly How NOT To Invest. Read more: http://t.co/P4vANGGH4f http://t.co/7OW4KvXBhL pic.twitter.com/MnQBobnfGz
— Alvin Lee (@onemanatatime) April 23, 2014