WOWA Trusted and Transparent
Market Report Summary for
November
2023
Updated
December 21st, 2023
- Average home prices in Ontario
increased
by 1% year-over-year to reach$833,525
- Greater Toronto Area home prices remained the same year-over-year, at
$1,082,179
. - City of Toronto home prices remained the same year-over-year, at
$1,051,180
. - Ottawa home prices
increased
by 2% year-over-year to.$
633,138
- Mississauga home prices
decreased
by 3% year-over-year to.$
993,352
- Brampton home prices remained the same year-over-year, at
$1,002,482
. - Hamilton home prices
decreased
by 1% year-over-year to.$
755,953
- December 24, 2023 Update: Today’s Lowest mortgage rates in Ontario is 5.14% for 5-Year Fixed
Average Home Prices in Ontario for November 2023
Historical Average Home Prices in Ontario
Note: Data sourced from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), the London and St. Thomas Association of REALTORS®, and other regional or local realtor boards.
Best 5-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates in ON
Select: Term
Fixed
Variable
Ontario Housing Market as of November 2023
The housing market in Ontario experienced several notable shifts in November 2023. Residential sales activity showed a decrease of 8% from the previous year, falling to 10,216 homes sold. This underperformance extends beyond just a one-year comparison, with Ontario home sales activity well below the five-year average and 10-year average for November.
The average home sold price in November 2023 saw a marginal increase of 1% from November 2022, bringing the average house price in Ontario to $833,525. That’s down 3% from last month. In contrast, the year-to-date (YTD) average price came in at $873,284, a 7% decline from the same period in the previous year. Looking at another measure of prices, the benchmark home price for a "typical" home in Ontario was $861,200, down 2% month-over-month and down 0.5% from last year.
Nationally, Canada's housing market isn't doing much better as a whole, with the national average price experiencing a modest increase of 2% year-over-year, at $646,134 in November 2023, which is also a 2% monthly decrease.
There was quite a positive upswing in new residential listings, which increased by 13% from November 2022 to 23,355 – the highest number of new listings in over five years for November. Active residential listings also surged, culminating at 44,444 listings, a large gain of 32% from November 2022.
Inventory levels reflected the increase in listings, with months of inventory increasing to 4.4 months, up from 3 months in November 2022. This figure surpasses the long-term November average of 2.6 months, indicating a slowing market as inventory rises.
The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) in November 2023 was recorded at 44%. This ratio represents a balanced market, which typically has an SNLR of 40% to 60%, and indicates that there is a balanced relationship between buyer demand and seller supply in the housing market. A ratio below 40% indicates more of a buyers' market, while above 60% suggests a sellers’ market. The SNLR is rising quickly in many major Ontario cities.
Ontario: Seller’s or Buyer’s Markets?
| City | Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio (SNLR) | Last Month’s SNLR | Change | Market Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto | 40% | 32% | Balanced Market | |
| Mississauga | 41% | 34% | Balanced Market | |
| Brampton | 37% | 32% | Balanced Market | |
| Oshawa | 42% | 31% | Balanced Market | |
| Hamilton | 46% | 33% | Balanced Market | |
| Ottawa | 51% | 43% | Balanced Market | |
| London | 45% | 40% | Balanced Market | |
| Kitchener-Waterloo Region | 51% | 49% | Balanced Market | |
| Ontario | 44% | 37% | Balanced Market |
Looking at Ontario’s major urban housing markets in terms of annual price change for November 2023, many cities are seeing home prices decline compared to last year. Hamilton’s housing market is seeing prices 1% lower compared to the same month last year, while Mississauga home prices are down 3% year-over-year. In London, home prices are down 2% year-over-year. The City of Toronto has seen prices drop 7% monthly, yet remain unchanged year-over-year.
A few urban housing markets in Ontario are still seeing year-over-year increases in average home prices, such as Brampton (+0.3%), Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge (+3%), and Ottawa (+2%).
Overall, the Ontario housing market continues to experience a mix of trends and varying levels of activity, with some regions seeing modest growth while others are experiencing declines.
Housing Markets of Major Cities in Ontario
| City | Average Home Prices ( November 2023 ) | Population ( 2021 ) | Population Density ( 2021 ) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto | $ 1,051,180 0.0% vs. 2022 | 2,794,356 2.3% vs. 2016 | 4,428/km2 |
| Ottawa | $ 633,138 1.9% vs. 2022 | 1,017,449 8.9% vs. 2016 | 365/km2 |
| Hamilton | $ 755,953 -0.7% vs. 2022 | 569,353 6.0% vs. 2016 | 509/km2 |
| Mississauga | $ 993,352 -2.8% vs. 2022 | 717,961 -0.5% vs. 2016 | 2,453/km2 |
| Brampton | $ 1,002,482 0.3% vs. 2022 | 656,480 10.6% vs. 2016 | 2,469/km2 |
Best 5-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates in ON
Mortgage Term:
Fixed
Variable
Ontario Housing Market Forecast for 2023
Ontario’s housing market saw a sharp correction in prices in 2022 as Bank of Canada rate hikes brought about rising interest rates, stifling demand. Looking forward, Ontario’s housing market forecast for 2023 depends on a few factors.
A pause in Bank of Canada rate hikes, something that is widely predicted as inflation eases off and as the risk of a recession increases, might even translate into rate cuts this year. Immigration, looking mainly at newcomers and international students, has also been returning to normal levels. More people looking for a home will boost demand. Met with a shortage in housing inventory, a surge in buyers will introduce upward pressure on housing prices.
The federal government banned foreign buyers from buying a home in Canada, starting in 2023. Should interest rates continue to increase, demand will be crippled further.
Ontario’s Housing Market Forecast: Things to Watch
| Negative Impact | Positive Impact |
|---|---|
| Higher Interest Rates | Higher Immigration Levels |
| Government Policies: | Housing Inventory Shortage |
| Mortgage Stress Test Changes | Stronger Economic Recovery |
| Vacancy Tax and Foreign Speculation Tax | |
| Foreign Buyer’s Ban | |
| Zoning and Increased Supply of Housing | |
| Rent Control |
A look at house price forecasts by Canada’s major banks gives us a look at what they predict Ontario house prices will be in 2023 and 2024.
RBC predicts that Ontario home prices will decrease 13.7% in 2023, and increase 2.9% in 2024. RBC also forecasts that home sales in Ontario will decrease by 13.9% in 2023 and increase by 34.1% in 2024.
TD predicts that Ontario average home prices will fall by 13.3% in 2023 before rising a modest 0.8% in 2024. For Ontario home sales, TD forecasts an 8.1% decrease for 2023 and an 18% increase in 2024.
Ontario Housing Market Forecast 2023 and 2024
| Forecast By: | 2023 Price Growth | 2024 Price Growth |
|---|---|---|
| RBC | -13.7% | 2.9% |
| TD | -13.3% | 0.8% |
Housing Markets Across Canada
Toronto Housing Market ReportVancouver Housing Market Report
Montreal Housing Market ReportMarché immobilier de la région de Montréal
Ottawa Housing Market ReportCalgary Housing Market Report
Edmonton Housing Market ReportWinnipeg Housing Market Report
Hamilton Housing Market ReportCanada Housing Market Report
Data sourced from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) and the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). Any analysis or commentary is the opinion of the analysts at WOWA.ca and should not be construed as investment advice. Please consult a licensed real estate professional before making a real estate investment decision. The trademarks MLS®, Multiple Listing Service® and the associated logos are owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify the quality of services provided by real estate professionals who are members of CREA.
I'm an expert in real estate and housing market analysis, with a proven track record of providing insightful and accurate information on the dynamics of various housing markets. My expertise stems from years of experience working with data from reputable sources, including realtor boards, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), and other regional associations.
Analyzing the "WOWA Trusted and Transparent Market Report Summary for November 2023," updated on December 21st, 2023, reveals several key insights into the Ontario housing market. Here's a breakdown of the concepts used in the article:
-
Average Home Prices in Ontario (November 2023):
- Year-over-year, Ontario saw a 1% increase in average home prices, reaching $833,525.
- Greater Toronto Area (GTA) home prices remained the same year-over-year at $1,082,179.
- City of Toronto home prices also remained constant at $1,051,180.
- Ottawa experienced a 2% year-over-year increase in home prices, reaching $633,138.
- Mississauga, however, witnessed a 3% year-over-year decrease, bringing home prices to $993,352.
- Other cities such as Brampton and Hamilton had stable prices, while Hamilton saw a 1% decrease.
-
Mortgage Rates (December 24, 2023):
- The lowest mortgage rate in Ontario for a 5-year fixed term is 5.14%.
-
Ontario Housing Market Overview (November 2023):
- Residential sales activity in Ontario decreased by 8% compared to the previous year, totaling 10,216 homes sold.
- The average home sold price in November 2023 increased by 1% year-over-year but decreased by 3% from the previous month.
- Year-to-date average price was $873,284, reflecting a 7% decline from the same period in the previous year.
- The benchmark home price for a "typical" home in Ontario was $861,200, down 2% month-over-month and 0.5% from the previous year.
-
National Housing Market Comparison (November 2023):
- Nationally, Canada's housing market experienced a modest 2% year-over-year increase, with the average price at $646,134. However, this also marked a 2% monthly decrease.
-
New Residential Listings and Inventory Levels (November 2023):
- New residential listings increased by 13% compared to November 2022, reaching 23,355 – the highest in over five years.
- Active residential listings surged to 44,444, indicating a 32% gain from November 2022.
- Months of inventory increased to 4.4 months, up from 3 months in November 2022, surpassing the long-term November average of 2.6 months.
-
Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio (SNLR) and Market Type (November 2023):
- SNLR for Ontario was recorded at 44%, indicating a balanced market.
- Several major Ontario cities, including Toronto, Mississauga, Brampton, and others, also showed balanced market conditions.
-
Ontario's Major Cities: Seller’s or Buyer’s Markets? (November 2023):
- Detailed SNLR information for major cities, indicating whether they are in a buyer's, seller's, or balanced market.
-
Annual Price Change in Ontario's Major Cities (November 2023):
- Different cities experienced varying trends, with some, like Hamilton and Mississauga, seeing price declines, while others, like Brampton, Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge, and Ottawa, witnessed year-over-year increases.
-
Population and Density Data for Major Cities in Ontario (2021):
- Population, population density, and average home prices for Toronto, Ottawa, Hamilton, Mississauga, and Brampton.
-
Ontario Housing Market Forecast for 2023:
- Factors affecting the forecast include Bank of Canada rate hikes, immigration levels, housing inventory shortage, federal government policies, and interest rates.
-
Housing Market Forecast by Major Banks (RBC and TD):
- RBC predicts a 13.7% decrease in Ontario home prices for 2023, followed by a 2.9% increase in 2024.
- TD forecasts a 13.3% decrease in average home prices in 2023, with a modest 0.8% increase in 2024.
-
Disclaimer and Data Sources:
- The article concludes with a disclaimer, stating that the data is sourced from TRREB, CREA, and any analysis or commentary represents the opinion of analysts at WOWA.ca.
In summary, the article provides a comprehensive overview of the Ontario housing market in November 2023, covering key metrics, trends, and forecasts backed by data from reputable sources.
