Nvidia Stock: Start Looking Out Ahead Of Q1 2021 Earnings (NASDAQ:NVDA) (2024)

All eyes will be on NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) when it reports its Q1 results next week on Wednesday. The stock is down 12% over the last month alone and investors are curious to see if the chipmaker’s upcoming earning report has enough positives to reinvigorate its share price. So, in this article, I want to discuss a few key items that should be on everyone’s radar when NVIDIA announces its Q1 results. These items – segment performance and their management’s comments on their supply situation – are likely going to influence its share price over the coming days and weeks. Let's take a closer look at it all.

Clarity on Supply Situation

Let me start by saying that the ongoing semiconductor supply shortage still hasn’t eased, at least not materially, and it continues to disrupt supply chains across the globe. NVIDIA and its key rival in the GPU space, AMD, have both been affected by these shortages as well. However, what we don’t know yet is if they’ve been impacted equally and how their market shares are set to evolve as a result of this supply-demand mismatch.

For the uninitiated, NVIDIA has tapped Samsung’s (OTCPK:SSNLF) 8nm process node for its RTX30-series GPUs whereas its small rival, AMD, is using Taiwan Semiconductor’s (TSM) 7nm node. Although both the aforementioned fabs – TSMC and Samsung -- have reported in the past that they’re unable to keep up with the breakneck customer demand, certain channel reports suggest that the supply shortfall at Samsung may be more severe than TSM of late.

Per Samuel Wang of Gartner:

Overall, the 200mm shortage is dragging on much longer than expected... There has been no shortage in [TSMC’s] 7nm and 5nm since 3Q20. That’s when Apple advanced their use of wafers from 7nm to 5nm. There is a shortage at Samsung’s 8nm node, causing problems for Nvidia and Qualcomm

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I think it's needless to say but if NVIDIA’s supply crunch is more severe than AMD’s, then the former could variably lose market share to the latter. After all, OEMs and end-customers who’re in the market for just about any functional 7nm/8nm GPUs would go for either brands based on stock availability. This dynamic can partially or wholly erode NVIDIA’s recent market share gains against its smaller rival, AMD, and even limit NVIDIA's revenue growth in its graphics segment.

(Source: Business Quant)

Now there is the distinct possibility that Samsung prioritized NVIDIA over its other customers, and provided NVIDIA with unfettered access to supplies. However, a recent channel report (although unconfirmed) suggests that Samsung’s chip shortage is so dire that it’s affecting Samsung’s own smartphone roadmap, which goes against the popular narrative of NVIDIA being prioritized. So, investors should closely listen to NVIDIA management’s official comments around its supply situation on its upcoming earnings call. Specifically, look for comments that shed light on:

• whether its supply crunch remained sporadic or uniform throughout its Q1;
• how its volumes are/were affected, and;
• how soon are the supply constraints likely to ease going forward.

These items will reveal NVIDIA’s operational positioning and provide us with clarity on what to expect from the chipmaker in the near future.

Having said that, as far as my guesstimates are concerned, here’s what I think: The chipmaker released a slew of new offerings during the quarter, as we’ll see in the next section of this article. Its top brass wouldn’t have done so if the supply crunch was extremely severe and posed the risk of a sequential unit sales decline. NVIDIA and its fab partner, most likely, brought additional capacity online during the quarter to accommodate the sales of these new SKUs. So, I expect NVIDIA’s volume sales, and consequently its revenue, to be up sequentially and year over year in its Q1 results but we’ll just have to wait for the company’s official confirmation on the same.

Segmented Impact

Next, NVIDIA has a range of dynamics at play that can variably impact its financials during Q1 and even in Q2 across its different end-markets. For starters, the company launched its RTX30 series cards several months ago but it continues to sell out due to extraordinary consumer demand. In fact, a popular tech website published a buyer’s guide only yesterday explaining the various tips and tricks to increase the odds of buying an NVIDIA RTX 3080 GPU. The company also launched a budget RTX 3060 GPU during the quarter, but it too has largely remained out of stock.

Unless the chipmaker saw a drop in production capacity and/or registered low production yields during Q1, this strong customer demand should ideally boost NVIDIA’s average selling prices for RTX 30 series cards and catapult its gaming revenues higher on a sequential as well as on a year-over-year basis in Q1 and possibly even in Q2. Although the chipmaker also announced its laptop-focused 3050 and 3050Ti GPUs last week, their sales will be recognized in its Q2.

(Source: BusinessQuant.com, company filings)

Moving on, NVIDIA’s data center segment may post muted results. The chipmaker had launched a new A100 data center GPU, with double the memory of its predecessor, during Q4. This means NVIDIA will be registering its first full quarter of sales from this new release this time around, which should drive its data center sales higher during Q1 at the very least.

However, at the same time, the company’s rival in the data center space, Intel (INTC), registered a drop in its data center sales in its latest quarter. Its management downplayed the possibility of market share losses and explained that their data center sales were slow because cloud-focused customers were still digesting inventory during the quarter. There is the distinct possibility that NVIDIA too faces this kind of cloud consumption hiccup in Q1 which could weigh on its data center sales. So, overall, I’m expecting its data center revenue to more or less remain flat sequentially.

From Intel’s Q1 earnings call:

In data center, we believe revenue bottomed in Q1 and will increase in Q2 as cloud digestion impacts begin to subside, and enterprise and government momentum continues… now customers are almost through the digestion of that and we are starting to see signs that they want to start the next build phase in their cloud.

Let’s now shift focus to NVIDIA’s Professional Visualization segment. The chipmaker will be registering its first full quarter of A6000 card sales this time around. The company also launched eight new mid-range workstation cards – A4000, A5000, and others – which are likely to drive its sales higher. So, for Q1, I expect the company’s sales in the professional visualization market to be up on a sequential basis.

Altogether, as evident from the chart above, the three aforementioned revenue streams – gaming, data center, and professional visualization – accounted for over 94% of NVIDIA’s total sales last quarter. Based on my above-mentioned reasoning, my guesstimate is that the company as a whole will post sequentially higher revenue in Q1. This expectation seems to be in line with the Street’s forecasts. A consensus of 30 analysts is projecting NVIDIA’s revenue for the quarter to come in at $5.39 billion, which marks a sequential and a year-on-year growth of 7.8% and 79.7%, respectively.

Final Thoughts

NVIDIA is surrounded by a few uncertainties which might make its shares volatile in the coming days and weeks. So, investors may want to keep a close eye on its segmented financials and its management’s comments around their supply situation to get a firm understanding of its state of operations and gain clarity about its near-term prospects. As far as I’m concerned, I’m neutral on the stock as we head into its Q1 results. Good Luck!

Business Quant