NASA has declared the US is in a new space race with China. How close is it? (2024)

The space race was between two cold war warriors, but now there's a new race – and China could be winning.

According to SpaceX founder and CEO Elon Musk, China's space program is "far more advanced" than we think.

His tweet was in response to an article citing Wu Weiren, chief designer of China's lunar exploration program, who said: "By 2030, the Chinese people will definitely be able to set foot on the Moon."

The meteoric rise of China's space program

In the past year, China has taken giant leaps in space exploration – they built a space station that is manned by taikonauts, landed a rover on Mars, and became the first nation to touch down on the far side of the Moon.

China has made its ambitions clear – it wants to set up a base on the Moon and send people to Mars.

In the words of Chinese President Xi Jinping: "To explore the vast cosmos, develop the space industry and build China into a space power is our eternal dream."

NASA has clocked the explosive growth of China's space program – and they're worried.

"They are very aggressive, and they are very good – and a lot of that success has come within the last few years," NASA administrator Bill Nelson said in a 2021 interview.

Mr Nelson reiterated this view late last year: "… we better watch out that they don't get to a place on the Moon under the guise of scientific research. And it is not beyond the realm of possibility that they say, 'Keep out, we're here, this is our territory'."

The US Department of Defense (DoD) also has a watchful eye on China's space ambitions.

In its 2022 Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments involving the People's Republic of China, the DoD noted the rapid growth of China's investment in its space program:

"China has devoted considerable economic and technological resources to growing all aspects of its space program, improving military space applications, developing human spaceflight, and conducting lunar and Martian exploration missions…

Beijing's goals is to become a broad-based, fully capable space power. Its rapidly growing space program – second only to the United States in the number of operational satellites – is a source of national pride …"

Another DoD-sponsored report, State of the Space Industrial Base 2022, put China ahead of the US as the dominant space power "by 2045, if not earlier" – and called for "urgent action" to keep the US in front.

Nevertheless, China's spending on space still pales in comparison to the US.

In 2022, global spending on space programs hit a record $US103 billion: the US accounts for more than half of this spend at $US62 billion, while China spent $US12 billion.

But China looks set to catch up, having doubled its investment over the past decade from $US6.1 billion in 2013.

Will China rocket ahead of the US?

Bin Li is an expert in the laws governing space technology and exploration, and is currently a Law Lecturer at the University of Newcastle in Australia.

He believes China still has "some way to go" before catching up with the US in space.

"The Chinese space program has been quite successful, particularly from 1990s," he explains.

"With the support of the financial contribution from the central government, they have recruited many talents to develop science and technology.

"China is catching up."

Dr Li says the space race is an economic race too – and a political one.

"We know that space is so critical to these two countries' economy and international standing," he adds.

"Because of the competition between China and the United States – almost on all fronts – this competition will continue.

"The United States is building up its Space Force, and I believe the same thing is happening within China to make sure that China is not only catching up, but also in some areas might overtake the United States."

Leroy Chiao is a retired NASA astronaut and one-time commander of the International Space Station.

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In 2006, he visited the Chinese Astronaut Centre.

"They're very serious about it," he says.

"They've borrowed a lot of technology from the Russians and made it a little bit better – they've modernised it, and so their hardware is very good."

Mr Chiao still works in the space sector as a consultant and educator, and he's impressed by China's advancements in space technology and exploration.

In some ways, China may already be ahead of the US, he suggests.

"Their space station is actually quite advanced," he explains.

"It's not nearly as large as the International Space Station, however, I would argue that it's actually better to be smaller.

"It's just like a big house, if you've got a big house, you're constantly doing maintenance work.

"So, I think the Chinese have built a pretty good-sized station that's big enough to do meaningful work, but small enough that you're not spending all your time doing maintenance and repair work."

Shooting for the Moon

The Moon is the immediate frontier in the US-China space race.

China has partnered with Russia on the International Lunar Research Station initiative, which aims to land humans on the Moon by 2030 and establish "complex experimental research facilities" for exploration and use of the Moon.

Meanwhile, NASA's Artemis missions aim to land the "the first woman and first person of colour on the Moon" by 2025, and "establish the first long-term presence on the Moon".

But Mr Chiao says this space race is not like the US-Soviet rivalry in the 1960s.

"There was a feeling in the US – and probably in the Soviet Union, too – that this was life or death," Mr Chiao explains.

"We had to win to show that we had the superior technology – and we did when we landed humans on the Moon in 1969.

"If China were to land the next astronauts on the Moon, OK, that's great – but we did it in 1969, and we're planning to do it again."

And the development of international space law means that there are limits to what the US and China can actually achieve on the Moon – and beyond.

For example, the Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies – or the Outer Space Treaty – states:

"[O]uter space is not subject to national appropriation by claim of sovereignty, by means of use or occupation, or by any other means."

Both the US and China are signatories to this treaty and have an obligation to comply with its principles.

Cooperation between the US and China will never take off

That doesn't mean China and the US will cooperate.

NASA has criticised China of being "intolerant of any examination of their space program."

"They are very inflexible, they are not very transparent," Mr Nelson said in a media interview.

"I wish they would do what the old Soviet Union did when it came to civilian space – I wish they'd cooperate and be transparent."

But the US has also demonstrated it is unwilling to work with China.

In 2001, US Congress enacted the Wolf Amendment limiting NASA from collaborating with the Chinese government or Chinese companies:

"None of the funds made available by this Act may be used for the National Aeronautics and SpaceAdministration (NASA) or the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) to develop, design, plan, promulgate, implement, or execute a bilateral policy, program, order, or contract of any kind to participate, collaborate, or coordinate bilaterally in any way with China or any Chinese-owned company unless such activities are specifically authorized by a law enacted after the date of enactment of this Act."

Dr Li believes it will be difficult for the US and China to "put aside the mistrust between them".

But there may be scope for some agreement and communication.

"I believe there is some room for these two countries to talk to each other so that a potential collision between space assets could be avoided," he suggests, "and to reduce the space debris and also to improve the accessibility of outer space to all countries."

Mr Chiao was the commander of the International Space Station in the mid-2000s, and worked alongside Russian cosmonaut, Salizhan Sharipov, for six months.

"The cooperation with Russia really opened up the relationship in all areas," Mr Chiao says, reflecting on his time at NASA.

"Now, relations with Russia and the United States are not very good, but I would argue they would be much worse if there were not at least this one area – the International Space Station – a very visible civil program where we do cooperate together.

"The engineers and technical people, astronauts and mission controllers all work very well together.

"If we could establish the same kind of relationship with China – or if we could have – I think it would have been just as wonderful even though [US-China] relations right now are not the best."

A brand new season of China Tonight kicks off tonight. Watch the show ABC NewsFridays at 8pm or catch up any time on ABC iview and YouTube.