Dollar Index Fell Sharply To Levels Below 93.50
STOCKS
Equities seem to have recovered a bit. Dow has risen back after a sharp rise seen in the previous session. Although there is scope to rise towards crucial resistance near 36000, while the level holds, medium term rise could be limited on the upside. Dax can test 15400 before rising back again towards 15600/800/900 in the medium term. Nikkei and Shanghai are stable. Nikkei can fall to 28250/000 while Shanghai is bullish while above 3500, else can fall to 3400/3350 before rising back. Nifty and Sensex saw a sharp fall breaking below respective supports at 18000 and 60000. A fall to 17400 and 59000 looks likely while below the broken supports if the indices are unable to bounce back immediately today.
Dow (35730.48, +239.79, +0.68%) has risen again today. The index can consolidate between 36000-35500/250 for some time before breaking on either side. 36000 is crucial resistance on the upside.
DAX (15696.33, -9.48, +0.06%) has dipped further. A range of 15900-15400 is holding well. A strong break on either side of the range is needed to form the next view and get clarity. While below 15900, we can see a fall towards 15400 in the coming sessions.
Shanghai (3524.22, +5.80, +0.16%) has been stable.The support at 3500 is holding for now and can produce a bounce towards 3600 again. In case the index breaks below 3500,then the next level to watch will be 3400/3350.
COMMODITIES
Crude prices have recovered from fall seen yesterday. Watch resistance at 85 and 83 on Brent and WTI respectively to see if the price holds lower or breaks above resistance in the near term. Gold and Silver have fallen back a bit. Gold can rise on a sustained break above 1800. Silver can trade within 23.50-24.50 for now. Copper has risen well and can rise towards 4.80/90 while above 4.40.
Brent (84) and WTI (82.84) have again risen back today after a sharp fall seen yesterday. Watch resistance at 85 on Brent and 83 on WTI.
Gold (1797.90) has been hovering near the level of 1800.A strong and sustained break above 1800 is needed for the view to be bullish towards 1820/1840. While below 1800,a fall towards 1770/60 cannot be negated.
Silver (24.02) has scope to test 23.50 before again rising back to 24+ levels in the medium term. Overall range of 23.50-24.50/25 may hold for now.
Copper (4.4330) has bounced back after testing the low of 4.30.While above 4.40,the view remains bullish towards 4.80/90 on the upside.
FOREX
Dollar Index fell sharply yesterday after the US GDP data release yesterday for Q3. There is scope for a fall towards 93 before bouncing back higher in the near term. This could take Euro up to 1.17-1.1750 in the near term before reversing from there. EURJPY may hold above 131.50 and rise towards 133-133.50. Aussie and Pound has scope to trade within 0.7550-0.7450 and 1.3650-1.3850 respectively for the near to medium term. USDCNY trades lower today but can have scope for a test of 6.40/42 if it does not fall immediately from current levels. USDINR can be ranged within 75.0-74.70 today.
Dollar Index (93.406) fell sharply to levels below 93.50 and while the fall sustains, it can test 93.30-93.00 before bouncing higher from there. Overall trend looks bearish which could be accompanied with some interim corrective upmoves. Any break below 93 can take the index down to 90-89.55 levels.
Euro (1.1674) rose to 1.1692 before coming off from there. While the Dollar Index trades lower, there may be scope for a rise in Euro towards 1.17-1.1750. While we may hold on to our longer term bearish view below 1.1750, any break above 1.1750 may signal fresh upmove targeting 1.18-1.19 on the upside in the longer run. Immediate levels to watch would be 1.17-1.1750.
EURJPY (132.61) is holding above 131.50 just now. While above 131.50, there is scope to rise back towards 133-133.50 in the near term. But a break below 131.50, if seen would bring in fresh bearishness in the medium term.
Aussie (0.7539) has interim resistance near 0.7550/60 and higher at 0.76 which if holds can produce a fall in Aussie in the near term towards 0.7450. Any sustained break above 0.76, if seen would bring in long term bullishness.
Pound (1.3791) is holding below important resistance near 1.3845/50 and while below that, a fall to 1.3650-1.36 can be seen eventually. Overall trend is bearish for the near term while below 1.3850.
Dollar-Yen (113.53) has support near 113.25-113.00 which if holds can produce a bounce back to 114.25/75 keeping a broad range of 113-114.75 for the near term. Any break below 113, if seen can indicate a fresh decline towards 112.25-112 in the medium term. A fall in Dollar Yen below 113 would look more likely as it has high directional correlation with Dollar Index which looks bearish from current levels.
USDCNY (6.3910) has fallen after testing 6.4046 yesterday. It can either sustain the fall and head towards 6.38 and lower in the near term or rise towards 6.42 on the upside before falling off from there.
USDINR (74.9250) bounced back from 74.76 yesterday holding above the interim support near 74.70. A range of 75-74.70/75 may hold for today.
INTEREST RATES
US Treasury Yields have inched up slightly but have immediate resistance ahead which will have to be broken for them to move up further. While the resistance holds, a further fall is possible in the coming days. On the German yields, the 30Yr looks bearish to fall further from here while the 10Yr is range bound for now with broader bias being bearish. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI can consolidate in a broad range for some time before a fresh fall is seen.
The US 2Yr (0.49%) Treasury yield has dipped while the 5Yr (1.18%), 10Yr (1.57%) and the 30Yr (1.98%) have inched up slightly. It will have to be seen if the 10Yr and 30Yr manage to rise past 1.6% and 2% respectively which is needed to move back to 1.75% and 2.2%. While below 1.6% (10Yr) and 2% (30Yr) the 10Yr can test 1.5% and the 30Yr can fall to 1.85%. We will have to wait and watch.
The German 2Yr (-0.63%), 5Yr (-0.44%), 10Yr (-0.14%) and 30Yr (0.16%) have risen back well across tenors. But the broader view is bearish. The 30Yr can dip to 0.1%-0.05% while it remains below 0.2%. The 10Yr is stuck between -0.1% and -0.2%. The bias is bearish to break -0.2% and see a fall to -0.3% and -0.4% in the coming weeks.
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