Majid Rahimi (Soheil) on LinkedIn: #growth #economy #china #banks (2024)

IMF and Major Banks Lift China’s 2023 GrowthMajor international banks and the International Monetary Fund (“IMF”) have revised China’s 2023 GDP growth upwards, despite continued concerns about deflation. The IMF has revised its China GDP growth to 5.4% for 2023 and 4.6% 2024. In October, the Washington-based financial body downgraded China’s growth forecast to 5% and 4.2% in 2023 and 2024 respectively.The IMF’s 180-degree revision followed a decision by Beijing to approve a 1 trillion yuan ($137 billion) sovereign bond issue and allow local governments to frontload part of their 2024 bond quotas, in an effort to stimulate the economy.Likewise, UBS, JP Morgan, Nomura and Deutsche Bank have also revised upwards their China full year GDP growth to 5.2%.Infrastructure investment growth picked up in September, while manufacturing investment also expanded. Consumption, a mainstay of the Chinese economy, has seen steady increase. Exports of automobiles and electronic products have been significantly strong.For full article, please see 更多文章內容:https://lnkd.in/dTxqXsAn歡迎聯絡我們查詢更多：www.citylinkers.com.hk查詢電話：(852) 3152 2148Whatsapp：(852) 6816 8938 微信公眾號: 連城專業商務#連城集團 #citylinkers #privatewealth #funds #familyoffice #investment #wealthmanagement #fintech #China #ESG #GDP #投資基金 #家族辦公室 #GBA #中國 #大灣區 #金融科技

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"China's Great Slowdown!"👉 The #pboc (People's Bank of China) lowered the rate on its MTLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) to 2.5% on Tuesday. The move came shortly before the release of economic data that showed weak consumer spending growth, sliding investment and rising unemployment.✍ While the IMF (International Monetary Fund) has a 5.2% growth rate for China in 2023, many investment banks have moved to further lower their projections. economic team lowered its full-year forecast to a 4.8% gain. The bank had been predicting a 6.4% expansion as early as May. The JPMorgan economists now anticipate a 4.2% growth pace for 2024. After China's relatively slow 3% Covid-induced expansion last year, that would leave the country with its first three straight years of sub-5% growth since the era of Mao Zedong (see chart below from Bloomberg).✍ Barclays PLC, Research Division also cut its GDP estimate by 0.4% to 4.5% this year, while maintaining a below-consensus 2024 projection of 4.0%. Their economists attributed their move to disappointing data on consumption, housing, exports and credit, as well as the absence of effective stimulus. JPMorgan also highlighted China's real estate problems. They believe the deterioration in housing market outlook will increase the drag on the economy. ✍ Not all banks share this pessimism, however. Standard Chartered Bank has kept its projection at 5.4%. Their economic team believes that despite a weak start to Q3, China can still achieve its GDP growth target of about 5%. They believe a reopening boost to services and increased policy stimulus will help.✳ As I have explained in a recent podcast, China needs to shift its economic model to be more consumer-centric, similar to the western economic models. While consumer spending makes up almost 70% of the U.S. economy, China's share is still low in the 35-40% range. This is, obviously, a longer term objective. #chinaeconomy #economicgrowth #pboc #consumerspending #investmentbanks

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📈 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚'𝐬 𝐂𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐁𝐚𝐧𝐤 𝐓𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐬 𝐒𝐭𝐞𝐩𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐁𝐨𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐄𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡🏦 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐋𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐂𝐮𝐭:- 📉 The People's Bank of China (PBOC) recently made a crucial move by cutting the five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) from 4.2% to 3.95%. This rate is influential in determining mortgage prices.- 🔄 In contrast, the one-year LPR, which serves as a benchmark for corporate loans, remains unchanged at 3.45%.🌐 𝐆𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐄𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐬:- 🌪️ China's economy faces various challenges, including a prolonged property crisis, rising youth unemployment, and a global economic slowdown impacting demand for Chinese goods.💰 𝐀𝐢𝐦 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐄𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐒𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐮𝐥𝐮𝐬:- 📈 The central bank's decision to lower the lending rate is a strategic move to stimulate economic growth.- 🏦 By encouraging commercial banks to offer more credit at favorable rates, the goal is to boost economic activity.📉 𝐃𝐞𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐬:- 📆 In January, China experienced the fastest decline in consumer prices in over 14 years.- ⚠️ Deflation, characterized by falling prices, can negatively impact company profits, employment, and long-term demand.🔄 𝐇𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐜 𝐄𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐌𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐞𝐬:- 🏦 This rate cut follows last month's reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), the amount banks must hold in reserve.- 📊 These combined efforts aim to address economic challenges and fuel growth.🌐 𝐆𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐈𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐭:- 🌐 China's economic decisions also have implications for the global economy, given its significant role in international trade.🚀 𝐏𝐚𝐭𝐡 𝐅𝐨𝐫𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐝:- 🌱 As China implements these measures, attention is on how effectively they will contribute to economic recovery and stability.#ChinaEconomy #EconomicGrowth #CentralBank #FinancialStimulus #GlobalEconomy(Note: This content is inspired by publicly available information)

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Goldman Cuts China GDP Forecast, Citing Limited Options to Boost StimulusGoldman is latest to cut China growth forecasts for this yearState Council says support measures are being discussedChina’s slow stimulus rollout is adding to concerns about the weakening economy and fueling a debate over how far authorities will go to bolster growth.Investors were primed for the State Council, China’s cabinet, to possibly announce new support measures for the economy after a meeting on Friday. Market expectations were especially heightened after the central bank’s surprise interest rate cut last week, which economists said signaled a shift to looser policy.#business #finance #financialservices #growth #economy #china #bank

Global markets in 1H23 traded in a range-bound manner. Despite initial struggles with the banking crisis, the market rebounded with the expectation of the end of a rate hike and a better-than-expected economic outlook. However, volatility remains due to disappointing China's economic data. Will the U.S. have a soft landing? Could high-interest rates trigger more crises? Are China government policies presenting investment opportunities?Read now: https://lnkd.in/gc_Mt8EE#MarketOutlook #KGIAsia #Sage #WealthManagement #CommittedtoYourProsperity

CHINA TOWARDS THE RECESSION?In recent years, the Chinese Government and Monetary Authorities have injected large amounts of cash into the economy to stimulate production and consumption.For years, the second largest economy in the world has used credit heavily to finance any project.After the drop caused by the severe restrictions against covid-19, China is now in a difficult situation: the economy has not restarted as expected and all the liquidity previously injected into the market has not gone in the right direction.According to analysts, credit has not arrived in the real economy, but has circulated above all in the financial system, only fueling large bubbles, such as the real estate one.The Chinese Central Bank thus announced a cut in the cost of money, the first in the last ten months, to help the economy recover.The decision is a clear sign that Xi Jinping is evaluating new economic and monetary stimulus measures.According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS, the body that brings together the world's main Central Banks), in September 2022 the credits granted to the non-financial sectors amounted to almost 50,000 billion dollars, more than triple compared to ten years earlier but already in decline from 2021 levels.Today, China is a country where, after years of hesitant borrowing, many are trying to reduce their debts, notes the Wall Street Journal.This means less consumption and less investment, therefore an economy that slows down.#china #economy #finance

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Global markets in 1H23 traded in a range-bound manner. Despite initial struggles with the banking crisis, the market rebounded with the expectation of the end of a rate hike and a better-than-expected economic outlook. However, volatility remains due to disappointing China's economic data. Will the U.S. have a soft landing? Could high-interest rates trigger more crises? Are China government policies presenting investment opportunities?Read now: https://lnkd.in/gc_Mt8EE#MarketOutlook #KGIAsia #Sage #WealthManagement #CommittedtoYourProsperity

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CHINA TOWARDS THE RECESSION?In recent years, the Chinese Government and Monetary Authorities have injected large amounts of cash into the economy to stimulate production and consumption.For years, the second largest economy in the world has used credit heavily to finance any project.After the drop caused by the severe restrictions against covid-19, China is now in a difficult situation: the economy has not restarted as expected and all the liquidity previously injected into the market has not gone in the right direction.According to analysts, credit has not arrived in the real economy, but has circulated above all in the financial system, only fueling large bubbles, such as the real estate one.The Chinese Central Bank thus announced a cut in the cost of money, the first in the last ten months, to help the economy recover.The decision is a clear sign that Xi Jinping is evaluating new economic and monetary stimulus measures.According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS, the body that brings together the world's main Central Banks), in September 2022 the credits granted to the non-financial sectors amounted to almost 50,000 billion dollars, more than triple compared to ten years earlier but already in decline from 2021 levels.Today, China is a country where, after years of hesitant borrowing, many are trying to reduce their debts, notes the Wall Street Journal.This means less consumption and less investment, therefore an economy that slows down.#china#economy#finance

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China May Be Having A LEHMAN Moment🚨 This is when investors need objective and evidence-based analysis the most, find out which assets are most vulnerable at the end of this post.So what has been happening?China's worsening property crisis has led to Evergrande filing for bankruptcy in the US as part of one of the world's biggest debt restructurings.Evergrande has $300bn in debts and has lost $80bn over the last 2 years.The economic data is also deteriorating alarmingly with big misses on industrial production and retail sales.Exports and imports are both dropping and consumer prices now show DEFLATIONCopper prices, often seen as a proxy for China activity, aredown 8% this monthIs this now the real deal as far as economic meltdown goes?If it is then the BIG question is what is most vulnerable.When uncertainty is high a data-driven, evidence-based approach can really help add some objective clarity.What’s more, this can now be done at speed with the Quant Insight macro factor framework.So we asked the Qi machine to find equity indices:a) Sensitive to China slowdown (as measured by USDCNH and China 5y CDS)b) High model confidence c) Still expensive to macro model value The result is that Italian FTSE MIB and Spanish IBEX stock markets stand out as both vulnerable to China stress and slightly lagging the China slowdown.#china #chinaeconomy #evergrande #markets #investing

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FIIs are basking in artificial heat of printed dollar, China decline not stopping, FII participation is at low levels.Imagine scenario when FIIs come back..Where will China winding up surplus go?Additional funds to fiscal deficit by bond money..Combine all together where is this money find a place in ?"Global investors are reducing their exposure to Chinese stocks as the economy struggles to recover from a pandemic slump, regulatory flip-flops raise the risk of investing in the country, and domestic confidence remains subdued after a debt crisis battered the property sector. The nation’s stocks have erased almost $4 trillion in value since 2021, ranking among the world’s worst performers last year in a trend that’s continued into the start of 2024.China’s “lower weighting in EM benchmark indices is a reflection of the poor market performance, reduced investor positioning and significant capital outflows,” said Nenad Dinic, an equity strategist at Bank Julius Baer in Zurich. “Continued weak economic data and regulatory crackdowns over the holidays have cast a shadow over the outlook for Chinese equities.”"#finance #education #wealthmanagement #pms #mutualfunds #stockmarket #financialadvice #insurancesolutions #retirementplanning #financialplanning #financialgoals #wealthcreation

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