Magic Math – The New Modern by the Numbers - ChannelFireball - Magic: The Gathering Strategy, Singles, Cards, Decks (2024)

With Grand Prix Charlotte and Grand Prix Copenhagen coming up, it’s time to delve into the Modern format once again.

At the Pro Tour Fate Reforged, Junk, Burn, and Splinter Twin dominated. However, Modern players have had several months to adjust to the new metagame since then and have also gained a new set in Dragons of Tarkir.

Today, I’ll bring you back up to speed. Not just with deck lists—with plenty of numbers as well! Statistics on over 28,000 Modern games (collected by scraping Magic Online replays in the past few weeks) were provided to me by Rolle, for which I’m very thankful.

General Format Metrics

The average Modern game on Magic Online takes 6.7 turns, and the average number of lands player per player per game is 4.6. Being on the play is a small advantage, as it corresponds to a game win percentage of 51.5%.

Mulligans happen frequently (even more so than in Standard) and reduce your chances of winning (but not by as much as in Standard). A 6-card hand was kept in 33.5% of games, and a 5-card hand was kept in 6.8% of games. On average, 6-card hands won 40.2% and 5-card hands won 24.7% of the time.

The Metagame and Performance

In the following table, I provide for each of the top 20 archetypes the percentage of games it was played in, the percentage of games (not matches) that it won, and the expected record-based metagame percentage according to my metric that weights both popularity and performance (via expected 3-1 and 4-0 appearances) to represent the winner’s circle metagame.

Magic Math – The New Modern by the Numbers - ChannelFireball - Magic: The Gathering Strategy, Singles, Cards, Decks (1)

There is some uncertainty regarding these numbers, as sometimes not enough cards are played in a match to connectthem to a deck. For instance, a mana-screwed UBR deck could be either Splinter Twin or Delver. But the numbers in the table, which are based on tens of thousands of games on Magic Online, are still a good indication.

It’s notable that the game win percentage of the decks are all fairly close together. In my estimation, experience can give you a larger edge than deck choice, so I recommend sticking with a deck that you like and can play well. However, I would avoid Mono-Blue Tron and UR Storm for now.

So, Burn and Grixis Delver are on top. Here are sample lists:

Aleksa Telarov’s Burn, Top 4 at the Magic Online Championship

Red mages are still roasting their opponents in fiery infernos online. The main new addition is Atarka’s Command. It necessitates Stomping Ground in the mana base, but it’s an upgrade to Skullcrack. The other addition is Rending Volley in the sideboard which has replaced Combust as a way to disrupt Splinter Twin combo. It cannot kill Siege Rhino, but mana efficiency is more important.

Martin Dang’s Grixis Delver from the Magic Online Championship

Delver of Secrets along with Thought Scour is still a good combination, but the cantrip also fuels the graveyard for Tasigur and Gurmag Angler. Although Tasigur is also splashable in Splinter Twin, the delve creatures excel in Grixis Delver.

One key Dragons of Tarkir addition is Kologhan’s Command. Against Affinity, it is akin to Ancient Grudge. Against other decks, it’s easy to set up a 2-for-1. And if you return Snapcaster Mage then you can flashback Kolaghan’s Command for even more value down the road.

The Other Top Decks

Affinity, Twin, Junk, Jund, Gr Tron, Bloom Titan, and Infect are all pretty much the same as before. I didn’t see huge new upgrades, except for the addition of Kolaghan’s Command to Jund.

I don’t have an updated Affinity list yet as I literally haven’t had time to play a game of Modern since the Pro Tour, but I intend to remedy that as soon as possible: I promise to stream and/or record a video before the GPs.

The Dragons of Tarkir card with arguably the largest impact on Modern is Collected Company. It has heralded the rejuvenation of two creature combo decks:

Magnus Lantto’s Elf Company, Top 4 at the Magic Online Championships

Turn one: Nettle Sentinel. Turn two: Nettle Sentinel, Heritage Druid, Elvish Archdruid, Elvish Archdruid. Turn three: Ezuri, more Elves, attack for a million. This deck can overwhelm opponents with ridiculous amounts of mana early on. With 33 hittable creatures in the deck, Collected Company will hit 1.94 creatures on average.

Lantto’s deck, which is a typical build for this archetype, splashes white for Burrenton Forge-Tender and Kataki, War’s Wage from the sideboard. These creatures are mainly included as silver bullets for Chord of Calling, but Razorverge Thicket helps cast them if you draw them.

Jasper De Jong’s Melira Company, Top 4 at the Magic Online Championships

Birthing Pod has been banned, but the combo of Viscera Seer, Anafenza/Melira, and Kitchen Finks/Murderous Redcap is still around. With 28 hittable creatures in the deck, Collected Company will “only” yield 1.86 creatures on average, but many of them cost 3 mana, and sometimes you can get two of the missing combo pieces at instant speed.

Jasper’s build goes heavier on the combo than most versions, with extra copies of Viscera Seer, Eternal Witness, and Fauna Shaman. I like the toolbox aspect of the deck, although I would suggest Kor Firewalker instead of Burrenton Forge-Tender and Intrepid Hero instead of Aven Mindcensor in the sideboard. Just seems better against Lava Spike and Primeval Titan, respectively.

The following table provides game win percentages (match win percentages are not yet available) between the seven most popular decks. All numbers in this table are based on at least 50 games, with some based on over 200 games.

Magic Math – The New Modern by the Numbers - ChannelFireball - Magic: The Gathering Strategy, Singles, Cards, Decks (2)

The way to read this table is that Affinity smashed Burn in 63% of the games and lost to Twin in 72% of the games. Another lopsided matchup is Gr Tron vs. Junk, which greatly favors Gr Tron.

All things considered, Modern is filled with a lot of viable decks and new ones areborn with each new set. What’s your favorite?

Magic Math – The New Modern by the Numbers - ChannelFireball - Magic: The Gathering Strategy, Singles, Cards, Decks (2024)

FAQs

What is the best number of cards for a Magic deck? ›

If you're building a deck for the Constructed format, then you'll need to have at least 60 cards, plus you'll want a sideboard of 15 cards too. Finally, if you're building one for Commander or Brawl, then you'll need one commander card plus either 99 cards for Commander and 59 for Brawl.

What is a 60 card Magic deck called? ›

Pauper is a 60-card Constructed format that only allows cards of common rarity. Decks can use up to four of any card besides basic lands. Pauper is a relatively competitive format and some of the cards used in popular deck archetypes can be expensive.

What cards should be in a Magic deck? ›

Your deck needs to consist of at least 60 cards. You can have no more than 4 of a given card aside from basic lands. Go ahead and have 23 forests, but you can't have that many Llanowar Elves. You can have a 15 card sideboard that will allow you to swap cards out of your main deck between rounds.

What is the luckiest card in the deck? ›

The Ace of Spades (also known as the Spadille and Death Card) is traditionally the highest and most valued card in the deck of playing cards in English-speaking countries. The actual value of the card varies from game to game.

Can you have a 40 card magic deck? ›

Deck and Draft Guidelines

Once you have 45 cards in your pile, it is time to build your deck. Booster Draft rules allow you to add as much basic land as you want to your deck, and require that the deck you end up with be at least 40 cards. The standard number of lands in a draft deck is 17–18.

What is the most competitive Magic format? ›

Commander is the most popular format in Magic: The Gathering. This format challenges players to show off their deck-building, piloting, and even their political skills.

What is the most popular competitive MTG format? ›

Possibly the most popular format in all of Magic: The Gathering, Commander (or EDH) has players build a deck with one commander at the helm and a deck consisting of 99 cards. The joy of this format is that the power level of the decks can vary wildly.

What is the difference between modern and standard Magic? ›

A big difference between Standard and Modern MTG formats is the lack of rotation in Modern. While Modern decks can be expensive, the lack of rotation means decks are playable for many years. The exception being when an important card is banned—or the meta changes too significantly.

How many lands are best for a 60 card deck? ›

Traditional knowledge is that lands should make up a touch over 40% of a deck. This means about 17–18 lands for a 40-card deck and about 24–25 lands for a 60-card deck. This is a tried-and-true structure that's worked for many players for many years.

How many creatures should I have in a 60 card deck? ›

The standard amount of creatures in any given deck is usually around 24. This is a very loose recommendation, however, because a lot of decks use more or fewer than that depending on the strategy of the deck. Aggro decks use fewer lands while control decks use more.

Can you have 100 cards in a Magic deck? ›

With the exception of Commander and Brawl, which each have a maximum (and minimum) deck size of 100, your deck has no maximum hand size. In theory, you can put as many cards in your deck as you want!

What is the best color deck for Magic? ›

Blue is defined by knowledge and intellectualism, and it has the signature ability to draw and manipulate cards. This is among the most powerful things you can do in competitive Magic and has made blue historically the strongest color (which becomes more apparent in formats where cards from the 1990's are legal).

Should you always have 7 cards in Magic? ›

Each player has a maximum hand size, which is normally seven cards. A player may have any number of cards in their hand, but as part of their cleanup step, the player must discard excess cards down to the maximum hand size.

What is the strongest card in Magic? ›

1 Emrakul, The Aeons Torn

Emrakul, the Aeons Torn is banned in Commander, just like Griselbrand, because it's such an unbelievably powerful legendary creature with game-ending effects. Emrakul is used in formats like Modern and Legacy instead, where it can win the game with its gigantic 15/15 body and Annihilator 6.

What is the unluckiest card in the deck? ›

For three hundred years, the nine of diamonds has been known as The Curse of Scotland, and it has come to be considered the most unlucky playing card in the deck.

What is the strongest symbol in cards? ›

In most Western card games, the numeral 1 is designated ace and marked A accordingly. In games based on the superiority of one rank over another, such as most trick-taking games, the ace counts highest, outranking even the king.

What is a good Magic deck size? ›

The standard rule of thumb is 60 cards, with a limit of four of any one particular card - which covers all types of card. In events and in Magic: The Gathering Arena, you'll need a minimum of 60, plus an optional sideboard of 15 cards which you can switch out and in between matches.

Are custom Magic cards legal? ›

Artistic modifications are acceptable in sanctioned tournaments, provided that the modifications do not make the card art unrecognizable, contain substantial strategic advice, or contain offensive images. Artistic modifications also may not obstruct or change the mana cost or name of the card.

Are oversized Magic cards legal? ›

Oversized Commanders

As long as your commander is in a public zone, such as the command zone or the battlefield, you may substitute the oversized card for the traditional Magic card. If your commander is in a hidden zone, such as your library or your hand, use the traditional Magic card.

What is the most popular MTG format 2023? ›

Commander is widely considered the most popular MTG format to play. There are a lot of stark differences between this format and many of the others that lead to this, the biggest of which being that Commander, for the most part, is a casual format.

What is the most popular way to play Magic? ›

As the most widely sanctioned format in Magic: the Gathering, Standard is likely the first format you'll interact with. As a rotating constructed format, Standard players have access to roughly the past three years of cards released in expansion and core sets.

Is Magic: The Gathering the hardest game in the world? ›

Collectible card game Magic: The Gathering is a challenging cerebral exercise. Now, thanks to a new scientific study, we know that it's actually the most complex known real-world game there is.

Is MTG more complicated than chess? ›

Chess and magic are both very deep and intricate games. Magic is harder to learn, deeper, and more complex but what they share is that you are playing against another person. I would say that at the highest calibre of both chess and magic they would take roughly the same amount of skill.

Is modern a good format MTG? ›

Modern offers plenty for competitive players with dozens of archetypes to choose from, and since it's a non-rotating format, this allows players to keep the same deck for years without needing to change a card (bans pending, of course).

What is the easiest MTG format? ›

Standard is a great place to start playing Magic. In Standard, you'll build a minimum of a 60-card deck (and an optional 15-card sideboard) using cards from the most recent MTG sets. Games can be best-of-one (BO1 Standard) or best-two-out-of-three (BO3 Standard) and are played 1v1.

Why is modern MTG so expensive? ›

Also, I have identified 4 major culprits, 4 cards that by themselves greatly inflate the cost of Modern magic decks. They are Mox Opal, Engineered Explosives, Noble Heirarch and Scalding Tarn. These 4 cards are played in many of the decks in the top 16, so there is a very high demand for them driving up the price.

What Magic sets are rotating out of standard? ›

Which Magic: The Gathering Sets Rotated Out of Standard In 2022? 2022's Standard rotation triggered with the release of Dominaria United. Cards from Zendikar Rising, Kaldheim, Strixhaven: School of Mages, and Adventures in the Forgotten Realms have now rotated out of Standard.

Can a standard deck beat a modern deck? ›

On average the Modern decks will have an edge, but in reality it will be tremendously matchup dependent. Modern decks are tuned to beat other Modern decks, so they won't have the optimal questions/answers when facing a Standard deck. Of course the reverse is true as well.

How many lands do you need to consistently hit your land drops? ›

According to the table, you will almost always (94.6% on the draw, 90.4% on the play) hit 3 lands by turn 3 under the prescribed mulligan rule, which means that you can almost always play a reasonable game of Magic.

How much land do I need for a 40-card deck? ›

The standard number of lands in a draft deck is 17–18. Occasionally some decks will require more, while some formats (or deck archetypes) feature enough mana acceleration and cheap spells that they require less.

How many copies of a Planeswalker can be in a deck? ›

There's no limit to the number of planeswalker permanents you can have in play! It may hurt your head trying to manage 100 passive and loyalty abilities, but that's completely fair game. The only restriction is that you can't have two copies of the exact same planeswalker card in play.

How many legendary creatures should you have in a deck? ›

How Many Legendary Creatures Can You Have in a Deck? There are no particular restrictions regarding legendary creatures versus other cards. In constructed formats like Standard, Modern, Legacy, and Vintage, you can still have only four of a particular card in your deck.

How many companions can a deck have? ›

You can have up to one chosen companion for each game. That chosen companion doesn't start in your main deck. Rather, it's a card in your sideboard.

How many monsters should I have in my deck? ›

Monsters are the most important cards in Yu-Gi-Oh, used by almost every deck to attack and defend. Around 12-18 cards in your deck should be monsters, which should support your archetype or work with your deck. Don't have too many monsters you can't summon - the majority of your deck should be level 4 or below.

What is the maximum number of the same card in Magic? ›

Playing four copies of a card is your maximum—and naturally, that means these are the cards you are most likely to draw in a game.

How many instants should be in a Commander deck? ›

As a general rule of thumb, you want somewhere between 33 and 42 lands in a Commander deck.

How many cards is too many in a Magic deck? ›

Is there an official rule for how many is too much in a standard magic deck? Most formats don't have a maximum card limit, but for most formats the minimum card limit is 60 and most people choose to have 60 card decks unless there is a very good reason not to.

What is the most powerful color combination in Magic The Gathering? ›

Blue and black tend to combine to make up the most value-iest of combos. In most formats, this pair is a control deck, with solid black removal and blue card-drawing overpowering traditional decks through card advantage. A nice, big bomb or even just a few blue flyers can finish the job once the dust has settled.

What is the weakest color MTG? ›

  • The answer is probably Red.
  • Red does one thing very well Direct Damage, and the rest of it's share of the colour pie is quite narrow and limited. ...
  • Red is usually represented in Standard by fast aggressive decks.
  • However Red has a weakness to enchantments and is poor in card.

What is the most powerful color? ›

Red is the most powerful color amongst all. It has a tendency to stimulate mind and attract attention.

Is it bad to have more than 60 cards in a Magic deck? ›

You can play as many cards as you want in a Magic deck. So why don't people generally play more than the minimum? After all, playing more gives you access to additional different cards and can even prevent decking if the game comes down to that. It's all about card quality.

Should I sell all my Magic cards? ›

Whether you do it yourself and sell each card individually or if you sell your entire lot to a game store for a lump sum, you'll get money out of the deal and naturally, that is pretty great. Some cards are worth more than others, so a little research is necessary to determine their value.

How many black lotuses are there? ›

Black Lotus and the rest of the Power Nine were only printed for the early Alpha, Beta and Unlimited sets right at the very beginning of Magic: The Gathering's inception. All in all, it is estimated that only about 1,100 Black Lotus cards were ever printed.

What is the most a magic card has sold for? ›

He has been covering the business & culture of video games for two decades. A Black Lotus card from Magic: The Gathering — considered to be the most sought-after card from Magic, and perhaps from any trading card game — has sold at auction for a record $540,000, the highest ever bid for a Magic card.

What is the biggest creature in MTG? ›

What's the Biggest Creature in MTG? In terms of actual physical size, the biggest creature is one that has yet to receive its own creature card: Genju of the Realm. It's a massive spirit nearly the size of the entire plane of Kamigawa, and that's about as big as it gets.

Should you always have 7 cards in magic? ›

Each player has a maximum hand size, which is normally seven cards. A player may have any number of cards in their hand, but as part of their cleanup step, the player must discard excess cards down to the maximum hand size.

Is it bad to have more than 60 cards in a magic deck? ›

You can play as many cards as you want in a Magic deck. So why don't people generally play more than the minimum? After all, playing more gives you access to additional different cards and can even prevent decking if the game comes down to that. It's all about card quality.

How many creatures should be in a 60 card deck? ›

The standard amount of creatures in any given deck is usually around 24. This is a very loose recommendation, however, because a lot of decks use more or fewer than that depending on the strategy of the deck. Aggro decks use fewer lands while control decks use more.

How many cards is too many in a magic deck? ›

Is there an official rule for how many is too much in a standard magic deck? Most formats don't have a maximum card limit, but for most formats the minimum card limit is 60 and most people choose to have 60 card decks unless there is a very good reason not to.

Do Magic cards gain value? ›

Cards have value due to utility in competitive play.

If a Magic card ends up being played in a lot of competitive decks, it will probably go up in price. Most people want to win when they play Magic, so a large portion of the player base is always going to be chasing the latest and greatest deck.

How much land do you need for a 60 card deck? ›

Traditional knowledge is that lands should make up a touch over 40% of a deck. This means about 17–18 lands for a 40-card deck and about 24–25 lands for a 60-card deck. This is a tried-and-true structure that's worked for many players for many years.

What are the odds of drawing a king out of a deck of 52 cards? ›

Hence for drawing a card from a deck, each outcome has probability 1/52. The probability of an event is the sum of the probabilities of the outcomes in the event, hence the probability of drawing a spade is 13/52 = 1/4, and the probability of drawing a king is 4/52 = 1/13.

What is the most aggressive MTG deck? ›

White Weenie. White Weenie is the eternal aggro deck.

Is there a limit to how many cards you can have in your hand in MTG? ›

(See rule 103, “Starting the Game.”) 402.2 Each player has a maximum hand size, which is normally seven cards. A player may have any number of cards in their hand, but as part of their cleanup step, the player must discard excess cards down to the maximum hand size.

Can you still count cards with multiple decks? ›

Card counting is legal. Card counting works in multi-deck games as well as single- and double-deck games. You don't have to have a photographic memory to be a card counter.

How many copies of a planeswalker can be in a deck? ›

There's no limit to the number of planeswalker permanents you can have in play! It may hurt your head trying to manage 100 passive and loyalty abilities, but that's completely fair game. The only restriction is that you can't have two copies of the exact same planeswalker card in play.

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