Long-Term Financial Implications of Current Federal Budget Policies — Penn Wharton Budget Model (2024)

 year,Receipts,Expenditures,Primary Deficit,Debt (right axis) 2022,17.12001154,20.63723562,3.517224076,100.1206123 2023,17.27802316,20.30219435,3.024171195,103.2731629 2024,17.14173319,19.81401207,2.672278887,105.9357063 2025,16.98997041,19.95295095,2.962980538,108.8283332 2026,17.41880269,20.03551325,2.616710564,111.6225209 2027,17.73392808,20.08872886,2.354800773,114.515342 2028,17.57289708,20.58356662,3.010669538,118.1814581 2029,17.46364643,20.12381338,2.660166954,121.5382796 2030,17.37064281,20.57628918,3.205646364,125.5796494 2031,17.58314603,20.8901967,3.307050665,131.3387848 2032,17.538859,20.9278229,3.388963899,133.484427 2033,17.66875719,21.16027195,3.491514757,137.3238599 2034,17.63339273,21.13848846,3.505095728,140.7867717 2035,17.73894703,21.3707731,3.631826076,145.5237299 2036,17.71281223,21.34084981,3.628037576,148.1115523 2037,17.7406804,21.4302334,3.689553003,153.243092 2038,17.73976728,21.45985487,3.720087581,155.8112749 2039,17.68624123,21.47754462,3.791303392,160.9039438 2040,17.78884544,21.7197361,3.930890656,168.6129673 2041,17.85791437,21.83713419,3.979219822,171.9395665 2042,17.98418081,22.01916906,4.03498825,177.0017332 2043,18.08844521,22.24718363,4.158738424,184.8319762 2044,18.12413786,22.36528888,4.24115102,188.5371322 2045,18.08003526,22.37642838,4.296393111,191.7359521 2046,18.05782143,22.4343483,4.376526872,194.9563022 2047,18.18349537,22.76671115,4.583215781,202.3868127 2048,18.22197857,22.89018224,4.668203671,207.7556764 2049,18.27606385,23.06137635,4.785312504,217.5923205 2050,18.33792437,23.23888282,4.900958456,224.951676 
 year,Deficit/Receipts,Deficit/Expenditures 2022,20.5445193,17.04309696 2023,17.50299307,14.89578487 2024,15.5893156,13.48681366 2025,17.43958622,14.84983623 2026,15.02233311,13.06036202 2027,13.27850638,11.72199988 2028,17.13245986,14.62656882 2029,15.23259741,13.21900031 2030,18.45439112,15.57932209 2031,18.80807143,15.8306344 2032,19.32260188,16.19358074 2033,19.76095274,16.50033027 2034,19.87760258,16.58158167 2035,20.47374103,16.99435981 2036,20.48256104,17.0004363 2037,20.7971336,17.21657872 2038,20.9703291,17.33510131 2039,21.43645641,17.65240608 2040,22.09750301,18.09824318 2041,22.28266829,18.22226208 2042,22.43631941,18.32488882 2043,22.99113261,18.69332538 2044,23.40056698,18.96309519 2045,23.76318988,19.2005312 2046,24.23618425,19.50815247 2047,25.20536171,20.13121592 2048,25.61853343,20.39391221 2049,26.18349632,20.75033351 2050,26.72580799,21.08947531 
 Year,Taxes on Labor,Taxes on Capital,Payroll Taxes,Estate Taxes,Indirect Taxes,Other Receipts 2022,5.4564842,3.9633991,5.9244541,0.1031401,0.7585455,0.9139886 2023,5.3323669,4.0688701,6.1065722,0.1003104,0.7337605,0.9361432 2024,5.2279867,4.0575605,6.0859103,0.0997457,0.7256168,0.9449132 2025,5.2025447,4.0909588,6.0445141,0.0981516,0.7021814,0.8516199 2026,5.5306305,4.2457135,6.0909352,0.1016090,0.6844343,0.7654803 2027,5.7852152,4.3149706,6.0949204,0.1400995,0.6658692,0.7328532 2028,5.7324623,4.2662663,6.0920362,0.1452325,0.6485945,0.6883053 2029,5.7079465,4.2364576,6.0927596,0.1457905,0.6312539,0.6494382 2030,5.6884613,4.2073508,6.0993750,0.1477942,0.6138251,0.6138363 2031,5.7598667,4.2627775,6.1700548,0.1494486,0.6198817,0.6211167 2032,5.7467159,4.2545282,6.1520122,0.1488499,0.6170869,0.6196659 2033,5.7862480,4.2954969,6.1922077,0.1503522,0.6204659,0.6239864 2034,5.7846607,4.2751632,6.1835116,0.1490712,0.6182382,0.6227478 2035,5.8117557,4.3159067,6.2127229,0.1504022,0.6217592,0.6264003 2036,5.7962704,4.3252215,6.1965228,0.1507212,0.6188489,0.6252275 2037,5.8027881,4.3398613,6.2026736,0.1511398,0.6183932,0.6258243 2038,5.8000342,4.3499134,6.1955101,0.1513574,0.6169529,0.6259992 2039,5.7820158,4.3408456,6.1738290,0.1505514,0.6145196,0.6244798 2040,5.8126242,4.3734447,6.2060945,0.1511976,0.6170559,0.6284285 2041,5.8352413,4.3945951,6.2281606,0.1517488,0.6173396,0.6308289 2042,5.8782931,4.4301300,6.2676875,0.1525415,0.6199826,0.6355461 2043,5.9068731,4.4697872,6.2963150,0.1538326,0.6221305,0.6395068 2044,5.9135156,4.4907868,6.3023124,0.1543591,0.6220662,0.6410978 2045,5.8906429,4.4944274,6.2812031,0.1546359,0.6195374,0.6395885 2046,5.8766288,4.5031892,6.2661972,0.1550219,0.6179313,0.6388531 2047,5.9123746,4.5441363,6.3049222,0.1563257,0.6217254,0.6440112 2048,5.9153882,4.5721574,6.3092308,0.1572193,0.6222471,0.6457358 2049,5.9214294,4.6037703,6.3203745,0.1583103,0.6240557,0.6481238 2050,5.9286385,4.6424479,6.3309644,0.1600213,0.6252853,0.6505669 
 Year,Federal Purchases,Social Security,Medicare,Medicaid & SCHIP,Nutrition Programs,Other Welfare,Federal and Military Retirement 2022,6.9767223,5.1925380,4.0848099,1.8375242,0.5435920,0.9888312,1.0664235 2023,6.6201244,5.2736690,4.2288054,1.6102143,0.4380856,0.9311818,0.9923669 2024,6.3270360,5.3507874,4.1674739,1.5360908,0.4159845,0.8809881,0.9078000 2025,6.1706452,5.4186642,4.4631760,1.5159776,0.4009379,0.8632568,0.9479717 2026,6.0442819,5.4965569,4.5915464,1.5158596,0.3869833,0.8302521,0.9732006 2027,5.9591870,5.5863049,4.7429041,1.5176606,0.3750317,0.7597661,0.9529460 2028,5.8771089,5.6906235,5.1393251,1.5297535,0.3640538,0.7668628,1.0132076 2029,5.8067806,5.7926244,4.8171193,1.5692901,0.3531955,0.7185421,0.8723431 2030,5.7370027,5.8942361,5.1736486,1.5843551,0.3430832,0.7303950,0.9321027 2031,5.7844300,5.9425823,5.3203012,1.6397280,0.3454952,0.7367058,0.9382762 2032,5.7516000,5.9156778,5.3975141,1.6747991,0.3435129,0.7324096,0.9312750 2033,5.7667320,5.9438607,5.5293213,1.7191443,0.3445745,0.7348609,0.9402988 2034,5.7395978,5.8704772,5.5873952,1.7612376,0.3434868,0.7321482,0.9240046 2035,5.7542835,5.8915250,5.7249802,1.8107802,0.3452389,0.7343886,0.9290202 2036,5.6978547,5.8408670,5.7838765,1.8381799,0.3423138,0.7283773,0.9305478 2037,5.6875915,5.8171376,5.8644080,1.8852305,0.3409554,0.7271330,0.9290248 2038,5.6650789,5.7743858,5.9154375,1.9358651,0.3401913,0.7256341,0.9257338 2039,5.6391403,5.7315413,5.9733719,1.9786210,0.3391422,0.7214685,0.9176321 2040,5.6628113,5.7487145,6.1024855,2.0420832,0.3401573,0.7257616,0.9202111 2041,5.6711024,5.7184977,6.1767912,2.1037088,0.3404635,0.7290166,0.9199768 2042,5.6986205,5.7057614,6.2652043,2.1736989,0.3429693,0.7341611,0.9201087 2043,5.7077441,5.7316528,6.4013811,2.2194654,0.3432019,0.7351663,0.9292762 2044,5.6992728,5.7217068,6.4998252,2.2589174,0.3424934,0.7332088,0.9306490 2045,5.6681228,5.6809222,6.5553790,2.2915500,0.3407379,0.7297934,0.9310859 2046,5.6421051,5.6669754,6.6305278,2.3185063,0.3388533,0.7261454,0.9330305 2047,5.6764419,5.7285645,6.7891591,2.3749224,0.3415111,0.7326931,0.9445035 2048,5.6662588,5.7411685,6.8744944,2.4062023,0.3412086,0.7317923,0.9501901 2049,5.6691360,5.7652994,6.9747732,2.4413150,0.3421285,0.7325255,0.9572257 2050,5.6639564,5.8092725,7.0797060,2.4631706,0.3422319,0.7325865,0.9689184 
,MCW,MNW,MCN,MNN,FCW,FNW,FCN,FNN2022,25284096,54665152,11237376,36404416,29498112,54591992,12744472,378090882023,25108512,54153032,11442224,36755584,29688328,54050608,13066376,381163602024,24962192,53992080,11778760,37121384,29863912,53450696,13388280,383797362025,24947560,53611648,12159192,37209176,30112656,52602040,13871136,384382642026,24991456,53011736,12583520,37604240,30332136,51724120,14236936,382187842027,24889032,52514248,12890792,37999304,30829624,50846200,14705160,383651042028,24918296,52133816,13241960,38365104,31195424,50085336,14997800,387016402029,24932928,51446112,13563864,38584584,31517328,49324472,15348968,389211202030,24845136,50597456,13885768,38687008,31795336,49046464,15817192,391844962031,25006088,49909752,14017456,39184496,32205032,48270968,16314680,393893442032,25093880,49236680,14339360,39535664,32322088,48095384,16651216,399014642033,25357256,48944040,14719792,39638088,32409880,47832008,17017016,402233682034,25167040,48270968,14968536,39828304,32439144,47407680,17514504,401794722035,25108512,47758848,15231912,40194104,32702520,47261360,17938832,403550562036,25415784,47319888,15700136,40559904,32863472,46602920,18421688,403843202037,25474312,47056512,15934248,40457480,33258536,45973744,18802120,403989522038,25371888,46266384,16285416,40296528,33317064,45242144,19387400,406184322039,25210936,45812792,16504896,40530640,33697496,44905608,19826360,406623282040,25225568,45256776,16768272,40837912,33843816,44715392,20294584,407501202041,25269464,44876344,17236496,40969600,34048664,44115480,20543328,410573922042,25269464,44437384,17543768,41276872,34180352,43471672,20879864,411598162043,25313360,44408120,18099784,41203712,34209616,43135136,21538304,412476082044,25298728,44013056,18611904,41291504,34312040,42520592,22138216,411744482045,25445048,43735048,18787488,41452456,34487624,42008472,22533280,411451842046,25357256,43647256,19328872,41467088,34648576,41891416,23030768,412915042047,25342624,43179032,19519088,41993840,34692472,41452456,23323408,418767842048,25313360,42769336,19855624,42535224,34926584,40867176,23718472,419938402049,25357256,42169424,20148264,42871760,35102168,40442848,24040376,421694242050,25679160,41876784,20279952,43149768,35102168,40033152,24420808,421840562051,25664528,41540248,20426272,43310720,35131432,39711248,24537864,42096264
,MCW,MNW,MCN,MNN,FCW,FNW,FCN,FNN1991,85.534,72.687,86.916,69.699,78.795,55.481,77.163,52.7751992,85.596,70.005,86.912,68.595,76.172,53.326,76.056,51.1851993,86.027,69.587,83.409,68.504,75.474,52.933,78.067,50.8021994,84.892,69.049,86.171,67.188,75.748,54.356,77.619,51.6931995,85.455,69.294,87.759,67.169,75.84,54.546,78.923,51.9231996,84.306,69.343,85.772,67.65,75.785,54.466,76.553,52.1081997,84.098,69.489,85.139,68.314,76.362,54.883,76.113,54.771998,83.989,69.175,86.291,68.727,75.983,55.052,76.916,55.5051999,83.844,69.039,84.256,67.582,75.378,55.243,76.624,54.9322000,83.784,68.959,85.602,68.937,75.863,55.551,75.838,55.7352001,83.456,68.659,84.927,69.886,74.487,55.133,74.5,55.8572002,83.024,67.922,85.495,68.877,74.421,54.54,74.886,54.5852003,82.554,67.039,85.153,68.386,73.464,54.44,74.799,54.4292004,81.553,66.485,84.384,68.211,73.316,53.637,74.538,53.9412005,81.235,66.491,84.229,68.578,73.04,53.227,74.044,53.5032006,81.153,66.981,83.721,68.872,72.752,53.155,75.711,53.2592007,82.479,66.34,85.765,68.878,73.178,53.375,75.166,53.9752008,81.205,65.797,85.611,68.326,73.689,53.077,76.654,53.2892009,80.726,65.232,84.731,66.729,73.54,52.675,75.108,53.2692010,79.911,64.307,84.163,66.149,72.845,52,74.384,52.7362011,79.901,63.138,83.4,64.906,72.186,51.221,75.119,51.7512012,79.781,63.109,82.225,64.67,71.726,50.449,74.267,52.612013,78.525,62.274,83.519,64.506,71.062,50.131,73.306,51.7252014,77.277,61.938,84.058,64.196,71.498,49.611,72.504,51.7822015,80.124,65.509,83.311,66.305,73.51,52.274,76.006,55.3982016,78.143,64.061,82.699,65.23,72.181,50.889,73.353,54.3192017,77.122,63.107,81.582,65.316,71.088,50.774,71.915,53.5022018,75.42,63.106,80.999,65.347,69.989,50.088,71.67,54.5782019,74.501,63.907,79.909,64.715,69.798,51.031,72.373,53.8462020,72.604,61.893,79.283,62.929,68.593,50.036,71.167,52.5692021,71.9656,61.9198,79.0611,63.5326,67.8749,50.6791,69.0192,52.76632022,70.9639,62.1931,78.5439,63.5663,67.1558,50.3458,68.8962,52.51672023,70.9141,61.4467,78.7939,63.5525,66.9175,50.2887,68.8258,52.39492024,70.8153,61.1833,78.2441,63.5034,66.6465,50.1378,68.2403,52.26292025,70.1553,61.2382,76.9106,63.5206,66.0246,49.0967,67.9511,52.42452026,69.2027,60.8358,77.3247,63.6948,65.5083,48.9055,68.1216,51.95572027,68.994,60.5885,77.1218,63.4639,65.2597,48.0694,67.9516,52.17582028,68.7683,59.9309,77.3767,62.932,64.8679,47.918,68.3542,52.49462029,68.3125,59.9336,76.0852,63.0039,64.22,47.6251,68.1811,51.88762030,68.1394,60.2174,76.9821,63.2732,63.7992,47.1661,67.219,52.06562031,68.1042,60.4022,76.9377,63.1211,63.5154,47.0252,67.2972,51.9442032,67.7034,60.1427,77.0733,63.0568,63.3149,47.2684,67.3871,51.67332033,66.8488,60.0337,76.5089,62.9476,62.5769,47.2359,67.062,51.93522034,66.7023,59.6844,76.4292,63.1789,61.9051,47.3289,66.7642,51.74622035,66.2221,59.8552,75.9645,63.2337,61.5899,46.8719,66.5179,51.49262036,66.2485,59.7952,75.5041,62.9884,60.883,46.6302,66.614,51.53142037,65.9936,59.8772,75.4133,62.5989,60.6028,46.4977,66.4016,51.16382038,65.9177,60.3731,75.2455,62.0171,60.4137,46.3775,66.0773,50.88282039,66.0424,60.1749,75.8035,62.1671,59.6893,46.5993,65.3061,51.27282040,65.6876,60.0418,75.4415,61.8559,59.377,46.7378,65.4443,50.81112041,65.4064,60.1275,74.6657,62.1674,59.2712,46.779,65.0332,50.72672042,65.0193,60.4432,73.8643,62.5576,58.9633,47.2254,64.8581,50.34052043,64.9222,60.5412,74.0073,62.2991,58.4639,46.5679,64.5215,50.18222044,65.3027,60.5281,74.2656,61.7563,58.2415,47.0285,63.4117,50.42142045,65.2145,60.633,73.93,61.7184,57.9643,46.8358,63.8554,50.52032046,65.402,61.0328,73.4903,62.3759,57.6393,47.1048,63.1138,49.88042047,65.2766,60.8338,73.5252,62.6112,57.5432,47.4278,62.851,49.68992048,64.8517,60.9518,73.4622,62.3927,57.0558,47.359,62.8729,49.68692049,64.6321,60.6634,73.5163,61.8542,56.9741,47.8732,62.6495,49.65682050,64.4188,60.9477,72.9045,62.1037,56.7502,47.9698,62.3012,49.37812051,63.4665,61.0387,72.2375,61.2945,56.2976,47.9743,61.5778,49.4319
,Relative Labor EfficiencyMCW,2.81FCW,1.47MNW,2.43FNW,1.17MCN,2.00FCN,1.15MNN,1.93FNN,1.00
,MCW,MNW,MCN,MNN,FCW,FNW,FCN,FNN2020,2.93,2.66,0.99,1.39,2.17,1.69,0.88,12021,2.89,2.56,1.02,1.37,2.18,1.64,0.9,0.992022,2.91,2.55,1.05,1.4,2.18,1.64,0.91,12023,2.9,2.54,1.08,1.42,2.2,1.62,0.94,12024,2.93,2.5,1.12,1.43,2.23,1.61,0.97,1.012025,2.95,2.48,1.15,1.44,2.25,1.59,1,1.022026,2.96,2.47,1.17,1.45,2.26,1.54,1.03,1.032027,2.95,2.44,1.22,1.46,2.28,1.52,1.07,1.032028,2.97,2.42,1.26,1.47,2.3,1.48,1.1,1.042029,2.99,2.37,1.31,1.47,2.33,1.46,1.15,1.052030,2.99,2.35,1.33,1.48,2.33,1.44,1.18,1.052031,3.02,2.34,1.39,1.5,2.35,1.41,1.21,1.062032,3.05,2.33,1.43,1.5,2.38,1.39,1.25,1.062033,3.06,2.31,1.47,1.52,2.4,1.38,1.29,1.062034,3.05,2.29,1.5,1.52,2.4,1.37,1.32,1.072035,3.07,2.26,1.54,1.53,2.4,1.36,1.35,1.072036,3.07,2.24,1.58,1.54,2.41,1.33,1.38,1.072037,3.09,2.22,1.6,1.55,2.41,1.31,1.42,1.072038,3.1,2.21,1.65,1.55,2.43,1.29,1.45,1.072039,3.13,2.21,1.68,1.54,2.45,1.27,1.48,1.062040,3.16,2.18,1.74,1.56,2.44,1.27,1.5,1.082041,3.17,2.15,1.77,1.56,2.45,1.25,1.54,1.072042,3.17,2.14,1.8,1.57,2.47,1.24,1.57,1.072043,3.17,2.13,1.82,1.59,2.47,1.24,1.6,1.062044,3.19,2.1,1.86,1.59,2.46,1.21,1.63,1.062045,3.23,2.08,1.91,1.59,2.48,1.21,1.64,1.072046,3.24,2.07,1.94,1.59,2.49,1.19,1.68,1.072047,3.27,2.06,1.98,1.61,2.49,1.18,1.69,1.062048,3.27,2.04,2.02,1.63,2.51,1.18,1.73,1.062049,3.27,2.03,2.06,1.63,2.51,1.16,1.76,1.062050,3.27,2,2.1,1.62,2.51,1.16,1.79,1.06
Long-Term Financial Implications of Current Federal Budget Policies — Penn Wharton Budget Model (2024)
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