Long Range Solvency Provisions (2024)

Provisions Affecting Payroll Taxes

These provisions modify: (1) the current-law OASDI payroll tax rate of 12.4 percent (6.2 percent each for employees and employers); or (2) the contribution and benefit base (taxable maximum), which limits the amount of earnings subject to payroll tax and credited for benefit computation. We provide a summary list of all options (printer-friendly PDF version) in this category. For each provision listed below, we provide an estimate of the financial effect on the OASDI program over the long-range period (the next 75 years) and for the 75th year. In addition, we provide graphs and detailed single year tables. We base all estimates on the intermediate assumptions described in the 2023 Trustees Report.

Choose the type of estimates (summary or detailed) from the list of provisions.

We group these provisions as follows:

  • E1: Increase payroll tax rate, with no changes in the taxable maximum.
  • E2: Tax all earnings above the current-law taxable maximum.
  • E3: Tax a portion of earnings above the current-law taxable maximum.
Number Table and graph selection
E1.1 Increase the payroll tax rate (currently 12.4 percent) to 16.2 percent in 2024 and later.
E1.2 Increase the payroll tax rate (currently 12.4 percent) to 16.2 percent in 2034-2063, and to 20.0 percent in years 2064 and later.
E1.4 Increase the payroll tax rate (currently 12.4 percent) by 0.1 percentage point each year from 2029-2048, until the rate reaches 14.4 percent in 2048 and later.
E1.8 Increase the payroll tax rate (currently 12.4 percent) by 0.1 percentage point each year from 2026-2031, until the rate reaches 13.0 percent for 2031 and later.
E1.9 Increase the payroll tax rate (currently 12.4 percent) by 0.1 percentage point each year from 2027-2050, until the rate reaches 14.8 percent in 2050 and later.
E1.10 Increase the payroll tax rate by 0.1 percentage point per year for 2025 through 2034 so that it equals 13.4 percent for 2034 and later. The increase would be split evenly between the employer and employee share, and would be split between OASI and DI in proportion to currently scheduled payroll tax rates.
E2.1 Eliminate the taxable maximum in years 2024 and later, and apply full 12.4 percent payroll tax rate to all earnings. Do not provide benefit credit for earnings above the current-law taxable maximum.
E2.2 Eliminate the taxable maximum in years 2024 and later, and apply full 12.4 percent payroll tax rate to all earnings. Provide benefit credit for earnings above the current-law taxable maximum.
E2.4 Eliminate the taxable maximum for years 2030 and later (phased in 2024-2030), and apply full 12.4 percent payroll tax rate to all earnings. Provide benefit credit for earnings above the current-law taxable maximum that are subject to the payroll tax, using a secondary PIA formula. This secondary PIA formula involves: (1) an "AIME+" derived from annual earnings from each year after 2023 that were in excess of that year's current-law taxable maximum; (2) a new bend point equal to $9,360 in 2024, indexed by wages after 2024; and (3) formula factors of 3 percent and 0.25 percent below and above the new bend point, respectively.
E2.5 Apply 12.4 percent payroll tax rate on earnings above $250,000 starting in 2024, and tax all earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $250,000. Do not provide benefit credit for additional earnings taxed.
E2.11 Eliminate the taxable maximum in years 2029 and later. Phase in elimination by taxing all earnings above the current-law taxable maximum at: 2.48 percent in 2025, 4.96 percent in 2026, and so on, up to 12.40 percent in 2029. Provide benefit credit for earnings above the current-law taxable maximum that are subject to the payroll tax, using a secondary PIA formula. This secondary PIA formula involves: (1) an "AIME+" derived from annual earnings from each year after 2024 that were in excess of that year's current-law taxable maximum; and (2) a formula factor of 5 percent on this newly computed "AIME+".
E2.12 Eliminate the taxable maximum in years 2035 and later. Phase in elimination by taxing all earnings above the current-law taxable maximum at: 1.24 percent in 2026, 2.48 percent in 2027, and so on, up to 12.40 percent in 2035. Provide benefit credit for earnings above the current-law taxable maximum. Create a new bend point at the current-law taxable maximum with a 3 percent formula factor applying above the new bend point.
E2.13 Apply OASDI 12.4 percent payroll tax rate on earnings above $400,000 starting in 2025, and tax all earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $400,000. Provide benefit credit for earnings above the current-law taxable maximum that are subject to the payroll tax, using a secondary PIA formula. This secondary PIA formula involves: (1) an "AIME+" derived from annual earnings from each year after 2024 that were in excess of that year's current-law taxable maximum; and (2) a formula factor of 2 percent on this newly computed "AIME+".
E2.14 Apply OASDI 12.4 percent payroll tax rate on earnings above $250,000 starting in 2025, and tax all earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $250,000. Provide benefit credit for earnings above the current-law taxable maximum that are subject to the payroll tax, using a secondary PIA formula. This secondary PIA formula involves: (1) an "AIME+" derived from annual earnings from each year after 2024 that were in excess of that year's current-law taxable maximum; and (2) a formula factor of 2 percent on this newly computed "AIME+".
E2.15 Apply OASDI 12.4 percent payroll tax rate on earnings above $300,000 starting in 2025, and tax all earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $300,000. Provide benefit credit for earnings above the current-law taxable maximum that are subject to the payroll tax, using a secondary PIA formula. This secondary PIA formula involves: (1) an "AIME+" derived from annual earnings from each year after 2024 that were in excess of that year's current-law taxable maximum; and (2) a formula factor of 3 percent on this newly computed "AIME+".
E2.16 Apply OASDI 12.4 percent payroll tax rate on earnings above $250,000 starting in 2024, and tax all earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $250,000. Increase the computed level of the SSA average wage index for years after 2023 by amounts ranging from 0.6 percent for 2024 to 0.9 percent for 2034 and later. Provide benefit credit for earnings above the current-law taxable maximum that are subject to the payroll tax, using a secondary PIA formula. This secondary PIA formula involves: (1) an "AIME+" derived from annual earnings from each year after 2023 that were in excess of that year's current-law taxable maximum; and (2) a formula factor of 2 percent on this newly computed "AIME+".
E2.17 Apply 12.4 percent payroll tax rate on earnings above $400,000 starting in 2024 and tax all earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $400,000. Do not provide benefit credit for additional earnings taxed.
E2.18 Apply the combined OASDI payroll tax rate on covered earnings above $400,000 paid in 2025 and later, and tax all covered earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $400,000. Increase the computed level of the AWI for years after 2024 by amounts ranging from 0.5 percent for 2025 to 0.9 percent for 2047 and later. Credit the additional earnings taxed for benefit purposes by: (a) calculating a second average indexed monthly earnings ("AIME+") reflecting only earnings taxed above the current-law taxable maximum, (b) applying a 1 percent factor on this newly computed "AIME+" to develop a second component of the PIA, and (c) adding this second component to the current-law PIA.
E3.1 Increase the taxable maximum such that 90 percent of earnings would be subject to the payroll tax (phased in 2024-2033). Provide benefit credit for earnings up to the revised taxable maximum.
E3.2 Increase the taxable maximum such that 90 percent of earnings would be subject to the payroll tax (phased in 2024-2033). Do not provide benefit credit for additional earnings taxed.
E3.5 Increase the taxable maximum each year by an additional 2 percent beginning in 2024 until taxable earnings equal 90 percent of covered earnings. Provide benefit credit for earnings up to the revised taxable maximum.
E3.6 Increase the taxable maximum each year by an additional 2 percent beginning in 2026 until taxable earnings equal 90 percent of covered earnings. Do not provide benefit credit for additional earnings taxed.
E3.7 Increase the taxable maximum by an additional 2 percent per year beginning in 2025 until taxable earnings equal 90 percent of covered earnings. Provide benefit credit for earnings up to the revised taxable maximum. Create a new bend point equal to the current-law taxable maximum with a 5 percent formula factor applying above the new bend point.
E3.8 Beginning in 2031, apply 2 percent payroll tax rate on earnings over the wage-indexed equivalent of $200,000 in 2017 (about $348,300 in 2031), with the threshold wage-indexed after 2031. Provide proportional benefit credit for additional earnings taxed, based on the payroll tax rate applied to the additional earnings divided by the full 12.4 percent payroll tax rate.
E3.9 Beginning in 2031, apply 2 percent payroll tax rate on earnings over the wage-indexed equivalent of $200,000 in 2017 (about $348,300 in 2031), with the threshold wage-indexed after 2031. Do not provide benefit credit for additional earnings taxed.
E3.10 Beginning in 2031, apply 2 percent payroll tax rate on earnings over the wage-indexed equivalent of $300,000 in 2017 (about $522,300 in 2031), with the threshold wage-indexed after 2031. Provide proportional benefit credit for additional earnings taxed, based on the payroll tax rate applied to the additional earnings divided by the full 12.4 percent payroll tax rate.
E3.11 Beginning in 2031, apply 2 percent payroll tax rate on earnings over the wage-indexed equivalent of $300,000 in 2017 (about $522,300 in 2031), with the threshold wage-indexed after 2031. Do not provide benefit credit for additional earnings taxed.
E3.12 Beginning in 2031, apply 2 percent payroll tax rate on earnings over the wage-indexed equivalent of $400,000 in 2017 (about $696,600 in 2031), with the threshold wage-indexed after 2031. Provide proportional benefit credit for additional earnings taxed, based on the payroll tax rate applied to the additional earnings divided by the full 12.4 percent payroll tax rate.
E3.13 Beginning in 2031, apply 2 percent payroll tax rate on earnings over the wage-indexed equivalent of $400,000 in 2017 (about $696,600 in 2031), with the threshold wage-indexed after 2031. Do not provide benefit credit for additional earnings taxed.
E3.14 Eliminate the taxable maximum for the employer payroll tax (6.2 percent) beginning in 2024. For the employee payroll tax (6.2 percent) and for benefit credit purposes, beginning in 2024, increase the taxable maximum by an additional 2 percent per year until taxable earnings equal 90 percent of covered earnings.
E3.15 Increase the taxable maximum such that 90 percent of earnings are subject to the payroll tax (phased in 2024-2033). In addition, apply a tax rate of 6.2 percent for earnings above the revised taxable maximum (phased in from 2024-2033). Provide benefit credit for earnings taxed up to the revised taxable maximum.
E3.16 Beginning in 2025, apply 4 percent payroll tax rate on earnings above the wage-indexed equivalent of $400,000 in 2015 (about $589,500 in 2025), with the threshold wage-indexed after 2025. Provide benefit credit for additional earnings taxed, using a secondary PIA formula. This secondary PIA formula involves: (1) an "AIME+" derived from annual earnings taxed only between 2015 wage-indexed equivalents of $400,000 and $500,000, or about $589,500 and $736,800 in 2025 (with thresholds wage-indexed after 2025); and (2) a formula factor of 2 percent on this newly computed "AIME+".
E3.17 Beginning in 2025, increase the taxable maximum by twice the rate of increase in the national Average Wage Index, but never by less than 3 percent. Provide benefit credit for earnings up to the revised taxable maximum levels.
E3.18 Increase the taxable maximum linearly over 4 years to $279,900 for 2028. After 2028, index the taxable maximum to AWI plus 0.5 percentage point. Apply benefit credit on additional earnings taxed.
E3.19 Increase the taxable maximum such that 90 percent of earnings would be subject to the payroll tax (phased in linearly from 2025-2030). Provide benefit credit for additional earnings taxed, using a secondary PIA formula. This secondary PIA formula involves: (1) an "AIME+" derived from additional annual earnings taxed over the current-law taxable maximum; and (2) a formula factor of 2.5 percent on this newly computed "AIME+".

Long Range Solvency Provisions (2024)

FAQs

What is the solvency of the Social Security program? ›

Remain Solvent

“Solvency” refers to the ability of the Trust Funds to pay 100 percent of currently scheduled benefits. The Social Security Trustees Report is produced by actuaries at the Social Security Administration (SSA) primarily for policymakers and for the benefit of the public.

What changes are coming to Social Security in 2025? ›

More than half of female beneficiaries over age 60 will receive benefits based solely on their own work in 2025. By 2095, over 70 percent of women will receive such benefits. Over one-third of women will be dually entitled (receive a benefit based both on their own and their spouse's work) in 2025.

What are the bend points for Social Security 2024? ›

The portions depend on the year in which a worker attains age 62, becomes disabled before age 62, or dies before attaining age 62. For 2024 these portions are the first $1,174, the amount between $1,174 and $7,078, and the amount over $7,078. These dollar amounts are the "bend points" of the 2024 PIA formula.

What will replace Social Security? ›

In the proposals presented to the Commission, the use of retirement bonds--and annuities based on bond accumulations- would also replace the entire benefit structure of Social Security for the future.

How long can Social Security remain solvent? ›

Social Security is Only 11 Years from Insolvency

The SSDI trust fund is in much stronger shape and will remain solvent over the next 75 years. On a theoretically combined basis – assuming revenue is shared between the trust funds – the Social Security program will become insolvent by 2034.

Will Social Security be solvent in 2035? ›

Even though Social Security isn't expected to run out of money until 2034-35, several options for changes have already been floated to deal with the budget shortfall. These options include: Raising the payroll tax rate. Increasing the wages subject to Social Security taxes.

What is the $16728 Social Security bonus? ›

Have you heard about the Social Security $16,728 yearly bonus? There's really no “bonus” that retirees can collect. The Social Security Administration (SSA) uses a specific formula based on your lifetime earnings to determine your benefit amount.

What will happen to Social Security in 2050? ›

If changes are not made very soon to the Social Security system, Zigmont said, retirees in 2050 will be getting reduced payments — if they get payments at all. On the other hand, people who plan for their own retirement and look at Social Security as a bonus may be well off, Zigmont said.

What will happen to Social Security in 2030? ›

By looking at historical data on annual hikes in Social Security payments, the average monthly payment for retirees by 2030 is expected to have climbed to more than $2,000, according to an analysis by Better Benefits Guide.

What is the windfall elimination provision? ›

The Windfall Elimination Provision

The WEP reduces the Social Security benefits of certain retired or disabled workers who are also entitled to pension benefits based on earnings from jobs that were not covered by Social Security—and thus not subject to the Social Security payroll tax.

What is the maximum Social Security payout at age 65? ›

Key Takeaways. Qualifying for Social Security requires ten years of work or 40 work credits. The maximum benefit is $3,822 for someone at full retirement age in 2024. Individuals must wait until full retirement age to claim benefits and have been a high earner for 35 years to earn the maximum Social Security benefit.

What is the maximum Social Security benefit for a single person? ›

The maximum Social Security benefit at full retirement age is $3,822 per month in 2024. It's $4,873 per month in 2024 if retiring at age 70 and $2,710 if retiring at age 62.

What is the 5 year rule for Social Security? ›

The Social Security five-year rule is the time period in which you can file for an expedited reinstatement after your Social Security disability benefits have been terminated completely due to work.

Will Millennials get Social Security? ›

Millennials may receive less Social Security than older generations, as the reserve of funds gets depleted due to a declining number of U.S. workers contributing to the benefits pool. Millennials can fully retire at age 67, but to get the most out of Social Security benefits, you should wait until age 70 to collect.

Will Social Security be phased out? ›

Current workers will still receive Social Security benefits after the trust fund's reserves become depleted in 2034, but it's possible that future retirees will only receive 78% of their full benefits unless Congress acts.

How much of US debt is owed to Social Security? ›

But the biggest chunk of those “intragovernmental holdings” belongs to Social Security. As of the end of January, the program's retirement and disability trust funds together held more than $2.8 trillion in special non-traded Treasury securities, or 9% of the total debt.

How much does the US owe the Social Security trust fund? ›

As of 2021, the Trust Fund contained (or alternatively, was owed) $2.908 trillion. The Trust Fund is required by law to be invested in non-marketable securities issued and guaranteed by the "full faith and credit" of the federal government. These securities earn a market rate of interest.

What happens to Social Security if the government defaults? ›

She added that the Treasury might reduce the payments — maybe to 50% or 75% of what's been promised. “It could take both approaches. Which one it takes depends on what executive branch officials decide, and they will likely prioritize creditors and recipients of entitlement programs,” Erkulwater said.

Has the US government borrowed money from the Social Security fund? ›

Yes, the federal government borrows Social Security funds, but it is required to pay the money back with interest.

Top Articles
Latest Posts
Article information

Author: Melvina Ondricka

Last Updated:

Views: 6073

Rating: 4.8 / 5 (48 voted)

Reviews: 87% of readers found this page helpful

Author information

Name: Melvina Ondricka

Birthday: 2000-12-23

Address: Suite 382 139 Shaniqua Locks, Paulaborough, UT 90498

Phone: +636383657021

Job: Dynamic Government Specialist

Hobby: Kite flying, Watching movies, Knitting, Model building, Reading, Wood carving, Paintball

Introduction: My name is Melvina Ondricka, I am a helpful, fancy, friendly, innocent, outstanding, courageous, thoughtful person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.