Leuthold’s Paulsen Sees S&P 500 at 5,000 in New Bull Cycle (2024)

FAQs

Will the S&P 500 ever hit $5,000? ›

Yet, while some strategists see reasons for cheer, others see a market top. On Thursday, the S&P 500 crossed the 5000 mark during intraday trading for the first time, and on Friday it ended above that level, notching its tenth record close of 2024 at 5,026.

Aside from being a big, round number, 5,000 isn't a particularly important threshold for the broad U.S. stock market barometer in and of itself. But pushing the market to new all-time highs is a sign that investors have confidence in the direction of the economy.

The estimates from strategists put the median target for the S&P 500 at 5,200 by the end of 2024, implying a decline of less than 1% from Friday's level, according to MarketWatch calculations. Heading into 2024, the median target was around 5,000 (see table below).

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on January 31, 2024 in New York City. U.S. stocks ticked higher Thursday to set more records as further evidence piled up to show the job market remains remarkably solid.

Price Forecast for 2025: $5700 (as of April 4, 2024). PrimeXBT projects the S&P 500 to reach $5,700 by 2025, influenced by factors like Federal Reserve rate hikes, inflation, and geopolitical issues.

If the S&P 500 does compound 9.2% annually over the next 10 years, it will reach 10,000 by 2033, Colas wrote Friday.

The good news is that historically, there's never necessarily a bad time to invest -- as long as you keep a long-term outlook. For example, during the Great Recession, the S&P 500 bottomed out in March 2009.

S&P 500 Sector Gains Since Index Hit 4,000 in April 2021

“This is the year of the bucking bull,” said Bartels, who is upping the firm's exposure to Big Tech.

S&P 500 5 Year Return is at 85.38%, compared to 83.02% last month and 55.60% last year. This is higher than the long term average of 45.20%. The S&P 500 5 Year Return is the investment return received for a 5 year period, excluding dividends, when holding the S&P 500 index.

Will 2024 be a bull or bear market? ›

Economic growth actually accelerated above its 10-year average in 2023. That resilience, coupled with a fascination about artificial intelligence (AI), changed investors' collective mood. The S&P 500 soared throughout the year and finally reached a new high in January 2024, making the new bull market official.

Returns in the S&P 500 over the coming decade are more likely to be in the 3%-6% range, as multiples and margins are unlikely to expand, leaving sales growth, buybacks, and dividends as the main drivers of appreciation.

The Dow rose 1%, or 400 points, to close at 39,512, while the S&P rose 0.9% to its new high closing price of 5,225.

Closing the year at 903.25—a yearly loss of 38.5%—the index continued to decline in the first quarter of 2009, with the 2007-2009 bear market reaching a trough of 666 on March 6, 2009. The drawdown from the high in October 2007 to the low in March 2009 was 56.8%, the largest since World War II.

Stock prices have surged significantly over the past 18 months. The S&P 500 is up by 45% since it bottomed out in October 2022, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq has soared by a whopping 58% in that time. Investing now, then, means paying much higher prices than you would if you'd bought a year or two ago.

The actual rate of return is largely dependent on the types of investments you select. The Standard & Poor's 500® (S&P 500®) for the 10 years ending December 31^st 2023, had an annual compounded rate of return of 15.2%, including reinvestment of dividends.

Stock Market Average Yearly Return for the Last 5 Years

The historical average yearly return of the S&P 500 is 14.53% over the last 5 years, as of the end of February 2024.