Coming out of the 2007-2009 Great Recession, Denver was the nation’s hot spot. The resurgent front-range markets of Denver, Fort Collins, Boulder, and Colorado Springs led the charge as millennials flocked to Colorado. Jobs were aplenty, housing was affordable, and the possibilities seemed limitless. Fast forward to 2023, more people are now expected to move out of Colorado than move in. It was not that long ago that Colorado and Denver were considered the ideal place to live, work, and retire.
What happened? What is the biggest reason either keeping you from moving here or causing you to consider leaving the Centennial State?
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This outflux of residents is a turnabout from the 2010s, during which Colorado gained 750,000 people. State demographers warned that the trend was slowing in the late 2010s and early 2020s, despite the homebuying frenzy and skyrocketing real estate prices and rental rates.
Colorado gained 27,761 people in 2021, which is the smallest population gain since 1990. Colorado’s population growth peaked in 2015 with nearly 100,000 net new residents and has slowed most years since then. Data from the United States Census Bureau shows that from July 2021 to July 2022, Colorado’s population increased by 0.00-0.59%. Governor Polis is now understandably predicting population declines going forward.
State migration data from the previous year explains some of what’s happening within the state itself. Some Denver metro counties in particular are losing people to farther-flung counties south and north of the metro area. Collectively, over 16,000 more people left Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Denver, and Jefferson counties from 2020 to 2021 than moved in, led by Denver, Boulder, and Jefferson. Denver lost the most, with 8,867 moving out of the county. Jefferson saw 3,414 move out, Arapahoe 2,285, Boulder 1,413, and Adams 468.
A United Van Lines study concluded that these are the biggest reasons people left Colorado:
- Family
- Job
- Retirement
The biggest age group to leave the state was people 55 years and older but younger families and young job seekers are finding it more difficult to find affordable housing in the front range.
Do not despair – there are still a number of positives about living in Colorado:
- Colorado is the healthiest statein the United States
- Colorado is one of the most outdoor-friendly statesin the country
- Colorado has one of thehighest median household incomesin the country at $77,727
- Colorado is the second most educated statein the United States
- Colorado is one of the top pet-friendly statesin the country
- Colorado is ranks in the top 10 for work-life balance
- Colorado is top states for jobsin the United States
- Colorado is one of the sunniest states in the country, ranking number six
- Colorado has one of the best healthcare systemsin the country. It has the lowest heart disease rate in the country, as well as the fourth lowest cancer rate in the country
- Colorado is one of thetop states for pro sports. MLB:Colorado RockiesNFL:Denver BroncosMLS:ColoradoRapidsNBA:Denver NuggetsNHL:Colorado AvalancheNLL:Colorado Mammoth
Has Colorado’s red-hot run ended for good? Share your thoughts.
Photo credit: City & County of Denver
As an expert in demographic trends and regional economic shifts, I can confidently dissect the nuances behind the changing dynamics in Colorado, particularly Denver, as outlined in the provided article. My depth of knowledge extends to various factors such as population trends, economic indicators, and lifestyle considerations that influence people's decisions to move to or leave a particular region.
The article discusses the significant transformation Colorado has undergone since the aftermath of the 2007-2009 Great Recession when it emerged as a hot spot for millennials seeking job opportunities, affordable housing, and an attractive lifestyle. However, the current situation paints a different picture, with more people expected to move out than move in.
The evidence supporting this shift lies in demographic data, notably the net migration figures. The state experienced a remarkable population surge in the 2010s, gaining 750,000 residents. Nevertheless, the momentum began to wane in the late 2010s and early 2020s, even amid a homebuying frenzy and escalating real estate prices. In 2021, Colorado's population gain was the smallest since 1990, signaling a clear slowdown.
Governor Polis anticipates a further decline in population, a prediction supported by state migration data. The outflux is particularly notable in Denver metro counties, where more than 16,000 people left Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Denver, and Jefferson counties from 2020 to 2021 than moved in. This trend is most pronounced in Denver, with 8,867 residents moving out.
A United Van Lines study sheds light on the reasons behind this exodus, identifying family, job opportunities, and retirement as the primary drivers. Notably, the age group most affected is individuals aged 55 and older, but younger families and job seekers are also grappling with the challenge of finding affordable housing in the front range.
Despite this outmigration, it's essential to acknowledge the positive aspects of living in Colorado. The state boasts being the healthiest in the U.S., is outdoor-friendly, has a high median household income, is well-educated, and offers excellent work-life balance. Additionally, Colorado excels in healthcare, pro sports, and enjoys abundant sunshine.
In conclusion, the changing dynamics in Colorado represent a shift from the previous decade's growth, with affordability challenges in housing being a key factor. While the state continues to offer numerous positives, addressing the housing issue will be crucial to maintaining its appeal and potentially reversing the current trend of outmigration.
