Is The 60/40 Dead? (2024)

1In 2022, a 60/40 portfolio returned -18.1% on a nominal basis, which is the second worst year (2008) since the inception of the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index in 1976.

2“Long-term” returns reference the last 45 years dating to the inception of the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index. Exhibit 1: “Lost Decade” refers to 1/1/2000-12/31/2009. DecadePreceding 2022(2011-2021). Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary.

3Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management as of 9/30/22. GS PRISM®is a tool that analyzes the asset allocations of advisor portfolios. The average “moderate” risk portfolio refers to 1,600+ portfolios analyzed with a 30-40% allocation to core fixed income. “Core equities” refer to US large-, mid-, and small caps and international developed large caps. Diversification does not protect an investor from market risk and does not ensure a profit.

Disclosures

Glossary & Asset Class Disclosures

Core equity refers to US equities and developed market international large and mid cap equities.

Core fixed income refers to investment grade fixed income that are held for risk management in a portfolio.

US Aggregate Fixed Income is represented by the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index, which is an unmanaged diversified portfolio of fixed income securities, including U.S. Treasuries, investment-grade corporate bonds, and mortgage backed and asset-backed securities. It is not possible to invest in an unmanaged index.

US Large Cap Equity is represented by the S&P 500 Index, which is the Standard & Poor’s 500 Composite Index of 500 stocks, an unmanaged index of common stock prices. It is not possible to invest in an unmanaged index.

Equity investments are subject to market risk, which means that the value of the securities in which it invests may go up or down in response to the prospects of individual companies, particular sectors and/or general economic conditions. Different investment styles (e.g., “growth” and “value”) tend to shift in and out of favor, and, at times, the strategy may underperform other strategies that invest in similar asset classes. The market capitalization of a company may also involve greater risks (e.g. "small" or "mid" cap companies) than those associated with larger, more established companies and may be subject to more abrupt or erratic price movements, in addition to lower liquidity.

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Index Benchmarks
Indices are unmanaged. The figures for the index reflect the reinvestment of all income or dividends, as applicable, but do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses which would reduce returns. Investors cannot invest directly in indices.

The indices referenced herein have been selected because they are well known, easily recognized by investors, and reflect those indices that the Investment Manager believes, in part based on industry practice, provide a suitable benchmark against which to evaluate the investment or broader market described herein.

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Date of first use: 1/30/2023 298403-TMPL-11/2022-1707519

Is The 60/40 Dead? (2024)

FAQs

Is The 60/40 Dead? ›

While many analysts and experts predicted the demise of the 60/40 rule at the close of 2022 — a particularly brutal year for both stocks and bonds — this long-term investment strategy is looking favorable once again in 2024 and beyond.

Is the 60/40 portfolio outdated? ›

60:40 fared better in 2023 as equities surged and bonds stabilised, but its poor relative performance across the last two years has led many commentators to declare the concept outdated or even “dead”.

Is the 60 40 Fund dead? ›

After a disastrous 2022, 60/40 turned out not to be dead after all. Its resurrection as a strategy could be a bit different to what you expect, however.

Is the Vanguard 60 40 portfolio dead? ›

The long-popular 60% stocks-40% bonds portfolio remains alive and well and has proved to be successful despite a rough 2022, according to a key Vanguard Group researcher.

Is 60 40 a good investment? ›

The 60/40 portfolio is the standard-bearer for investors with a moderate risk tolerance. It gives you about half the volatility of the stock market but tends to provide good returns over the long term. For the past 20 years, it's been a great portfolio for investors to stick with.

At what age should you have a 60 40 portfolio? ›

According to this principle, individuals should hold a percentage of stocks equal to 100 minus their age. So, for a typical 60-year-old, 40% of the portfolio should be equities. The rest would comprise high-grade bonds, government debt, and other relatively safe assets.

What is the downside of a 60/40 portfolio? ›

Inflation is the biggest risk to a 60/40 portfolio because it can trigger central bank tightening which pushes up real rates, which weighs both on equities and bonds. That risk is now going the other way, where rates can come down and equities can be buffered by bonds.

What is the average 10 year return for a 60 40 portfolio? ›

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Mar 31, 2024
Return (%) as of Mar 31, 2024
10Y
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio8.05
US Inflation Adjusted return5.07
Components
5 more rows

Why is the 60/40 portfolio not working? ›

With broad stock market benchmarks down 19% for the year and bonds down 13%, a 60/40 mix of the two suffered its worst performance since the global financial crisis in 2008. This disappointing showing was followed by a chorus of pundits heralding the death of the 60/40 portfolio as a viable investment strategy.

What is the average return on a 70 30 portfolio? ›

The US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 Portfolio contains 70% Stocks, 30% Bonds. Over the last 30 years (last update: March 2024), the portfolio has returned 8.88% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -37.47%. 7.899% has been a safe withdrawal rate.

Can Vanguard go bust? ›

Vanguard is paid by the funds to provide administration and other services. If Vanguard ever did go bankrupt, the funds would not be affected and would simply hire another firm to provide these services.

Are 60 40 portfolios facing worst returns in 100 years? ›

LONDON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Investors with classic "60/40" portfolios are facing the worst returns this year for a century, BofA Global Research said in a note on Friday, noting that bond markets continue to see huge outflows.

Is 70 30 the new 60 40? ›

In recent years, the 70/30 asset allocation has become more popular. But many investors still prefer a 60/40 portfolio based on lower risk tolerance. Essentially, this portfolio takes on more risk in exchange for higher returns.

What is better than the 60 40 portfolio? ›

There, he predicted that a 60/40 portfolio was only projected to grow by a rate of 2.2% per year into the future and that those who wished to become adequately diversified will need to explore other alternatives such as private equity, venture capital, hedge funds, timber, collectibles, and precious metals.

Will stocks or bonds do better in 2024? ›

Bond outlooks improve, but stocks' prospects drop on the heels of 2023′s rally. Better things lie ahead for bonds, but the prospects for stocks, especially U.S. equities, are less rosy.

What is the best retirement portfolio for a 60 year old? ›

At age 60–69, consider a moderate portfolio (60% stock, 35% bonds, 5% cash/cash investments); 70–79, moderately conservative (40% stock, 50% bonds, 10% cash/cash investments); 80 and above, conservative (20% stock, 50% bonds, 30% cash/cash investments).

What is the outlook for 60 40 funds? ›

The typical 60% stock/40% bond portfolio declined about 16% in 2022—a painful period for balanced investors that has raised doubts about the viability of this strategy. But it helps to put this in perspective: The annualized return for the 10 years through 2022 was 6.1% for a globally diversified 60/40 portfolio.

Why is the 40 60 balanced portfolio being challenged? ›

This diversification dynamic has been challenged by present market conditions. Stocks and bonds tend to bear a low or negative correlation during low inflation periods. In 2022, inflation and rising interest rates turned this relationship on its head and the 60/40 portfolio had its worst year since at least 1937.

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