Is China’s Belt and Road Initiative a Threat to the US? (2024)

China Power|Diplomacy|East Asia

While there’s room for improvement, there is little evidence that the BRI is something to fear.

Is China’s Belt and Road Initiative a Threat to the US? (1)

As conflicts between the United States and China appear to mount, some experts have questioned the intentions of China’s infrastructure buildup across the span of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The BRI has been viewed as a debt trap for impoverished states and a means for China to expand its territorial control, but is it really? Is the United States missing an opportunity to participate or engage in parallel activities?

The BRI has repeatedly been labeled a debt trap and a power grab, and perhaps this seemed like a possibility at the outset. However, this concept has been debunked by careful research. Deborah Brautigam, director of the China Africa Research Initiative at Johns Hopkins University, studies Chinese lending to Africa in depth. She found no evidence that Chinese banks over-lend or invest in loss-making projects to obtain a foothold in those countries.

Brautigam points out that the turnover of the Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka to a Chinese company has often been misinterpreted as a geopolitical move by China to take over key infrastructure. The story is that China persuaded Sri Lanka to borrow funds for a project that had little prospect of success. The terms of the loan were onerous and forced Sri Lanka into default, so that the country was forced to hand over the port to China.

In reality, the Canadian firm SNC-Lavalin and Danish engineering firm Ramboll separately carried out feasibility reports for the port, both making strong cases for the project. As there were no takers for the project after some time, the Sri Lankan government accepted China’s loan proposal, even before the creation of the BRI. When the project failed during a time of political and financial upheaval in Sri Lanka, the Chinese took over a majority stake in and operating of the port, rather than seizing the port outright. And, as analyst Umesh Moramudali noted for The Diplomat, Sri Lanka’s debt crisis was not directly caused by the Hambantota Port loan to begin with, but by pre-existing balance of payment issues stemming from the maturation of sovereign bonds. Even if we take the Hambantota Port example as a cause for concern, this is a rare case that does not characterize Chinese investment along the BRI.

There is further evidence that China is not engaging in debt trap diplomacy. Brautigam has noted that in some countries that the IMF has labeled as vulnerable, China is the largest single creditor, but lenders from other countries hold most of the debt. Global banks and bondholders are actively involved in lending to African firms and governments. Importantly, Chinese loans were not responsible for pushing indebted countries above IMF debt sustainability limits.

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Furthermore, it should be pointed out that other countries have chosen to join the BRI, and not just impoverished nations. The BRI has reached not only Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia, but also East Asia and Europe. Over 18 European Union countries have joined the BRI. In Asia, South Korean firms Daewoo and Hyundai have won contracts along the BRI. Nissin Corp. shipped its first railbound cargo transshipment to Europe via China’s Sinotrans in October 2018. Countries have participated in the BRI in order to improve their connectivity to the rest of the world and level up industrialization efforts. Many of the projects have been successful; for example, one study launched in 2018 by Rand Corporation found that BRI transportation connectivity can boost trade and foreign direct investment, and speed up industrialization and economic growth. This shows that there are other ways of viewing the BRI, and that there have been clear benefits to participation.

Rather than decrying China for lending to BRI countries, the United States should engage in infrastructure lending to poor countries, and/or make it easier for multilateral banks to lend for such projects, reducing bureaucratic requirements. While the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation was formed in order to address financing of development projects in poor countries, its scale of funding (up to $60 billion) is much lower than that provided by China. In addition, the United States has tended to provide funds for large projects in large countries, as compared to China, which has funded smaller projects in developing countries. Even though the U.S. may not feel comfortable joining the BRI due to ongoing tensions with China, it can still increase its engagement in parallel activities.

Transparency is one issue that China should improve on to ease concerns about the potential for corruption within BRI deals. This would reduce worries that BRI contracts provide cover for embezzlement or mismanagement activities. According to a survey published last year by the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, European firms have been hesitant to participate in BRI projects mainly due to a lack of information and transparency. The Chamber requested that China create an open procurement system as well as perform feasibility and impact studies for BRI projects. The World Bank and other bodies have also called for increased transparency.

To answer the opening question – is China’s BRI a benefit or threat to the U.S.? – we can state that the BRI is not a threat, although more transparency would help the United States and other countries to understand the benefits and increase trust in BRI projects. This would go a long way in improving U.S. understanding of Chinese intentions along the Belt and Road.

Is China’s Belt and Road Initiative a Threat to the US? (2024)

FAQs

Is China’s Belt and Road Initiative a Threat to the US? ›

In early April 2021, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence published the 2021 Annual Threat Assessment. It put China's push for global power as the preeminent threat, and said that China's growing influence is one of the biggest threats the US faces.

Why is the BRI bad for the US? ›

The report found that the overall risks associated with BRI outweigh its benefits, including the threat to global macroeconomic stability, displacing non-Chinese businesses from participating in fair trade, locking countries into Chinese technology and technology standards, and increasing carbon emissions.

What are the negative impacts of the Belt and Road Initiative? ›

Accordingly, it is clear that China's BRI project has triggered social unrest in Pakistan and has also led to economic instability, SSRI reported. Laos is indebted to China, which can thus use its power to influence the policy-making process in Laos.

What are the implications of China's Belt and Road for the United States? ›

China's Belt and Road: Implications for the United States proposes that the United States respond to BRI by putting forward an affirmative agenda of its own, drawing on its strengths and coordinating with allies and partners to promote sustainable, secure, and green development.

Is the Belt and Road Initiative a threat? ›

To answer the opening question – is China's BRI a benefit or threat to the U.S.? – we can state that the BRI is not a threat, although more transparency would help the United States and other countries to understand the benefits and increase trust in BRI projects.

Which country benefit from BRI? ›

Table of countries of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
CountryRegionIncomeGroup
PortugalEurope & Central AsiaHigh income
QatarMiddle East & North AfricaHigh income
RomaniaEurope & Central AsiaUpper middle income
Russian Federation*Europe & Central AsiaUpper middle income
141 more rows

Which countries benefit from BRI? ›

Asia
  • Central Asia. The five countries of Central Asia—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan—are an important part of the land route of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). ...
  • Hong Kong. ...
  • Indonesia. ...
  • Laos. ...
  • Maldives. ...
  • Malaysia. ...
  • Pakistan. ...
  • Sri Lanka.

What is the problem with drive belt? ›

Common signs include a squealing noise from the front of the vehicle, power steering and AC not working, engine overheating, and cracks on the belt.

Which countries are not part of Belt and Road Initiative? ›

Economic Performance Of Non Belt & Road Countries

We can broadly categorize them into the United States, Canada, Mexico, Australia, the European Union, Japan and India. These are the economic statistics (courtesy of Country Economics, Trading Economics and the World Bank).

What is the end goal of China's one belt one road policy? ›

China's Belt and Road Initiative (also known as One Belt, One Road (OBOR)) is one of President Xi's most ambitious foreign and economic policies. It aims to strengthen Beijing's economic leadership through a vast program of infrastructure building throughout China's neighbouring regions.

What does China gain from Belt and Road Initiative? ›

Different Narratives on the Belt and Road Initiative

China's stated national goals for the BRI are to (1) supplement regional development through economic integration, (2) improve Chinese industry while exporting these same improved industrial standards, and (3) resolve issues from excess industrial capacity.

What impact does China have on the United States? ›

Today, the United States imports more from China than from any other country, and China is one of the largest export markets for U.S. goods and services. This trade has helped the United States in the form of lower prices for consumers and higher profits for corporations, but it has also come with costs.

What are the Western concerns against Chinese Belt and Road initiatives? ›

The Belt and Road Initiative debt trap

There has been Western criticism that China's financing to poorer countries can put China in a position of political power over sovereign governments because of the large amount of debt owed to Beijing.

What country is behind the Belt and Road Initiative? ›

China's colossal infrastructure investments may usher in a new era of trade and growth for economies in Asia and beyond.

Which country has the most Chinese outside China? ›

There are over 50 million overseas Chinese. Most of them are living in Southeast Asia where they make up a majority of the population of Singapore (75%) and significant minority populations in Malaysia (22.8%), Thailand (14%) and Brunei (10%).

What is the US project against BRI? ›

B3W is seen as a major strategic measure aimed at countering BRI cooperation (Adams 2021). The initiative mainly focuses on four issues: climate change, health security, digital technology, gender fairness and equality.

Is Russia part of Belt and Road Initiative? ›

The New Eurasian Land Bridge, which runs from Western China to Western Russia through Kazakhstan, and includes the Silk Road Railway through China's Xinjiang Autonomous Region, Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus, Poland and Germany.

How many countries are under China? ›

Administratively, China16 is divided into 23 provinces, 5 autonomous regions (Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Tibet, Ningxia, Xinjiang), 4 municipalities (Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing) and 2 Special Administrative Regions (Hong Kong, Macao).

Is the BRI bad for the environment? ›

While it may promote economic growth and infrastructure development in developing countries, the BRI ultimately pushes forward a trifecta of environmental devastation in the forms of coal, the Polar Silk Road, and biodiversity loss.

Why is the BRI good for China? ›

The Belt and Road Initiative in Asia

China views the BRI as vitally important in securing its borders on the Asian mainland. It has land borders with 15 nations, including unstable states such as Afghanistan and nations seeking new partnerships in opposition to the US, such as Russia.

Is India against BRI? ›

India, unlike 150 countries and 32 international organisations, stayed out of Chinese President Xi Jinping's ambitious Belt-Road Initiative (BRI), especially since signing on would have meant accepting China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects in Occupied Kashmir — a clear violation of its territorial integrity.

What is the lifespan of a belt drive? ›

Today, most serpentine belts are expected to last anywhere from 60,000 to 100,000 miles. Some belts can last significantly longer than this, while others give out before 60,000 miles. Make sure to check your owner's manual to find out the recommended belt replacement time frame.

How many years does a drive belt last? ›

Of the parts that will eventually need to be replaced in your vehicle, the serpentine belt is one of the most important. How long does a serpentine belt last? Being made of durable rubber, a serpentine belt can last anywhere from around 50,000-100,000 miles.

Is China building roads in Africa? ›

China continues to be one of the major financiers of infrastructure projects in sub-Saharan Africa, with a total investment of $155 billion over the past two decades.

Why is it called Belt and Road? ›

The name was coined in 2013 by China's President Xi Jinping, who drew inspiration from the concept of the Silk Road established during the Han Dynasty 2,000 years ago – an ancient network of trade routes that connected China to the Mediterranean via Eurasia for centuries.

How many BRI projects have been completed? ›

Currently, the Refinitiv BRI database has captured 2,631 projects with a combined value of $3.7 trillion, with the number of enterprises involved in the signature project standing at nearly 2,600.

What is China's one child rule? ›

What is the one-child policy? The one-child policy was a program in China that limited most Chinese families to one child each. It was implemented nationwide by the Chinese government in 1980, and it ended in 2016.

How does one belt one road benefit the world economy? ›

Economics. One Belt One Road promotes trade between each country and generates mutual economic benefits. For example, Kazakhstan is a landlocked country in Central Asia, and as its winters are very cold, there is barely any vegetable production.

Does China's overseas lending favor the one belt one road countries? ›

The One Belt One Road initiative is found to promote China's overseas lending in the belt road countries, especially for countries along the continental route. Such effect strengthens and persists for at least three years.

Did Japan join BRI? ›

Through METI and MOFA, Japan also extended and formalized its BRI cooperation in Southeast Asia further by signing the China-Japan Memorandum on Business Cooperation in Third Countries (METI, 2018).

Why is China the biggest threat to US? ›

The counterintelligence and economic espionage efforts emanating from the government of China and the Chinese Communist Party are a grave threat to the economic well-being and democratic values of the United States. Confronting this threat is the FBI's top counterintelligence priority.

When would China overtake US? ›

At the end of last year the bank revisited its calculations. It now thinks China's economy will not overtake America's until 2035 and at its high point will be only 14% bigger (see chart).

What if the US stopped buying from China? ›

Answer and Explanation: It is unlikely that China's economy will collapse if the US stops buying Chinese goods. While the two countries have a great deal of influence over their respective economies, they have more trade partners than each other.

Why the belt and road initiative is good? ›

On top of these external pressures, industrial overcapacity and environmental pollution were severe in China, and the local economy was on the verge of collapsing. The BRI's main accomplishment was to provide a cohesive and permissive environment for state agencies and businesses to search for a way out.

How many countries support Belt and Road Initiative? ›

The countries of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) are spread across all continents: 38 countries are in Sub-Saharan Africa. 34 BRI countries are in Europe & Central Asia (including 18 countries of the European Union (EU) that are part of the BRI) 25 BRI countries are in East Asia & pacific.

How much of the population is in the Belt and Road Initiative? ›

The Belt and Road Initiative includes includes 1/3 of world trade and GDP and over 60% of the world's population.

What city in the U.S. has the most Chinese? ›

New York City is home to the largest Chinese-American population of any city proper, with over half a million.

How many U.S. citizens live in China? ›

An estimate published in 2018 counted 600,000 people of other nations living in China, with 12% of those from the US; that means approximately 72,000 Americans living in China.

Where do 90% of China's people live? ›

94% of China's population lives east of the Heihe–Tengchong Line. West of the line: 57% of the area; only 6% of the population. East of the line: 43% of the area; 94% of the population. The line roughly demarcates historic Han China from territories occupied by force.

How is China's BRI negatively impacting the environment? ›

Although the BRI poses as a green initiative, China's policies through the BRI have overwhelmingly adverse effects on the environment not only through pernicious coal dumping in developing countries, but also with arctic oil extraction through the Polar Silk Road along with excessive cement production.

How does the BRI affect the global economy? ›

As a result of the BRI, global real income increases by 0.7 percent (in 2030 relative to the baseline), which in comparative terms is relatively sizeable as upper estimates of the real income impact of global free trade are around 1 percent.

What is the opposition of BRI? ›

India has expressed its strong opposition to China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its flagship project, the so-called China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) at the just concluded second UN Global Sustainable Transport Conference in Beijing.

How does BRI affect China? ›

The BRI will serve as a mechanism for weaponizing the global supply chain and gaining technology dominance. It will position China in the center of Eurasian trade markets, leading to unequal market leverages in the region and driving other regional countries to submit to China's interests.

Why did China build the BRI? ›

China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) (一带一路) is a strategy initiated by the People's Republic of China that seeks to connect Asia with Africa and Europe via land and maritime networks with the aim of improving regional integration, increasing trade and stimulating economic growth.

Why are there concerns in some countries about China's belt and road initiative? ›

Some analysts see the project as a disturbing expansion of Chinese power, and the United States has struggled to offer a competing vision. The initiative has stoked opposition in some Belt and Road countries that have experienced debt crises.

How much money did China invest in BRI? ›

China's finance and investments in the Belt and Road initiative (BRI) Chinese engagement through financial investments and contractual cooperation for 2022 in the 147 countries of the Belt and Road Initiative was about USD67. 8 billion based on over 200 deals.

How many people has the BRI lifted out of poverty? ›

Over the past decade, the BRI has galvanised nearly US$1 trillion of investment, established more than 3,000 cooperation projects, created 420,000 local jobs, and helped lift almost 40 million people out of poverty.

How many countries are in BRI now? ›

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI, or B&R), known within China as the One Belt One Road (Chinese: 一带一路; pinyin: Yīdài Yīlù) or OBOR for short, is a global infrastructure development strategy adopted by the Chinese government in 2013 to invest in more than 150 countries and international organizations.

Will the BRI be successful? ›

Is the Belt And Road Initiative successful? At present the BRI appears to be successful. It has faced a lot of Western criticism however appears to have been able to finance and build infrastructure in poorer nations that would otherwise not had the opportunity.

Does Vietnam support BRI? ›

While Vietnam's endorsem*nt of the BRI shows its desire to avoid confrontation with China, Hanoi is cognisant of the risk of economic dependence on Beijing and the opacity of BRI projects.

Is Korea part of BRI? ›

At the official level the ROK has not joined the Belt and Road initiative, but Moon Jae-in's government adheres to the position of the need to develop cooperation with the PRC. The ROK is interested in economic benefits it can have through its participation in the BRI.

What are the problems with the BRI? ›

One of the most significant criticisms of the BRI is that it is a debt trap, which involves China lending money to developing countries for infrastructure projects that they cannot afford to repay.

Does US support BRI? ›

Economically, the US did not compete with the Belt and Road Initiative over scale and capital, but instead focused on three areas: digital economy, cybersecurity, and energy and infrastructure development.

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