Industries that won’t exist in 20 years
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Dying trades
Industries have always come and gone thanks to changes in society. Whether it’s down to advances in technology, lack of demand or government policies, no sector is completely safe. With this in mind, let’s take a look at the industries that some experts believe are unlikely to survive the next two decades.
11 September 2019
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Telemarketing
The telemarketing industry as we know it is set to die out completely in the not-so-distant future. Advances in technology means it's cheaper and more efficient to make the process computerised. Indeed,telemarketing is the industrymost likely to be obliterated by robots, with a 99% chance that the job will be totally automated within 15 years, according to a study on The Future of Employment by Oxford University. Still, those robots will still have their work cut out for them:93% of calls fail, according to the Data & Marketing Association.
11 September 2019
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Cinema
Illegal streaming, expensive ticket prices and viewers getting tired of the samebig film franchises dominatingmovie theatershave resulted in an increasing fall in cinema attendance. The global box office has seen sales down 6% in the first half of 2019 compared to this time last year, with some analysts blaming the large number offranchise releasessuch asMen in Black: InternationalandThe LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part.Ticket sales in the US experienced the biggest drop, with reveneues falling 9.4% in the first six months of 2019. But while cinema is slumping online streaming services such as Netflix are booming, and the number of US households with a subscription to a streaming service rose from 12 million in 2009 to a whopping 71 million in 2017.
11 September 2019
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Print media
Newspapers and magazines are quickly becoming a dated concept. The ease of access to news online and on TV means they simply no longer have the readership they once did. Most recently UK women's magazine Marie Claire announced the closureof its print publication after 31 years.Ad revenues also took a beating following the 2008 recession, and despite the economy thriving since, they've never recovered. In 2016 print advertising for the New York Times decreased by 19%, just one example of the upcoming death of the industry.
11 September 2019
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Staffed retail
While retail will always exist in some form, the industry could be almost unrecognisable in just a couple of decades. Shop workers are already being replaced by self-checkouts, and as a result it's been estimated that the self-serve kiosk industry will be worth $34 billion (£27.5bn) by 2023. There will also be fully automated stores, like the 10 staff-free, checkout-freeAmazon Go stores that have opened in cities across America such as Seattle since2018. Customers who have the app can simply walk out with the items they want, then get charged to their Amazon account.
11 September 2019
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Paralegal and legal research
Artificial intelligence is having such a large impact on the legal sector that some experts believe it will completely eradicate the need for paralegals and legal researchers within the next decade. Many firms in the sector are already using AI to perform research and due diligence, making these processes less expensive and more efficient. With AI technology becoming more advanced and less expensive every day, the legal sector as it stands could be changed forever.
11 September 2019
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Accountancy
Research from Gartner states that 33% of all jobs could be performed by robots by 2025. Accounting is likely to fall into this category. Accounting firms are already using AI systems for tasks such as data entry and reconciliations, and as the technology continues to improve the need for humans will be greatly reduced. Indeed, Google predicts that human-level AI will be available by 2029, making traditional accounting obsolete.
11 September 2019
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DVD manufacturing
Streaming services officially overtook DVDs as the most popular format for home viewing in 2016. Since then, things have only gone further south for the DVD industry. In 2018 UK retailer John Lewis announced they would no longer sell DVD players thanks to a 40% drop in sales, and Christmas that year saw a £250 million ($304m) decrease in sales of physical copies of films, music, TV shows and video games in the UK. The Blu-ray industry is set to follow suit: Samsung has already stated it’ll stop making Blu-ray players for the US market in 2019.
11 September 2019
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Travel Agencies
In 2017, a report from Local Data Company (LDC) revealed that 700 brick-and-mortar travel agencies closed up shop in the UK alone. Unsurprisingly, the research found that the most prominent reason was competition from online travel agencies and holiday rental companies such as Airbnb. Currently, just one in five travellers book their holidays through traditional travel agents. With online travel agencies offering an increasing level of convenience and greater value for money, their traditional counterparts won't be around for much longer.
How Airbnb went from one bedroom to a billion-dollar company
11 September 2019
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Library and Information Services
The invention of e-books and the internet has left little demand for public libraries in modern society, and if current trends continue it won't be long before they're completely gone. In the UK alone there were 242 library closures between 2011 and 2016. Book borrowing has fallen by up to a half in some areas, and over 8,000 librarian jobs were lost between 2010 and 2016according to a BBC investigation.
11 September 2019
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Coal
As renewable energy sources continue to become more affordable, and with countries globally committing to reducing greenhouse gases, the coal industry is on its way out. More than 34,000 coal mining jobs have been lost in the US over the past decade, and the figure continues to plummet. One of the largest coal plants in the US, the Navajo Generating Station (NGS) in Arizona, is set to be closed by 2020, signalling the beginning of the end for the coal industry.
11 September 2019
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Oil
The oil industry is facing a large number of challenges which make it unlikely to survive the next 20 years. Environmental policies, electric cars and cheaper, alternative energies mean the industry is en route to becoming obsolete. By 2015 the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was facing a deficit of $100 billion (£81.1bn), and a downturn beginning in 2015 saw a loss of 300,000 oil and gas jobs worldwide.
11 September 2019
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Photofinishing
The introduction of digital cameras and smartphones has caused the steady decline of the photofinishing industry. Nowadays people simply snap photos on their phones and upload them to social media, rarelyprinting physical copies. As a result, the industry's revenue has been decreasing by 11% each year for the last decade, and employment has shrunk by almost 58%. Kodak, which filed for bankruptcy protection in 2012, posted losses of $18 million (£14.5m) in the first quarter of 2019.
11 September 2019
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Tobacco
As the negative health impacts of smoking have become widely known over the last few decades, tobacco use has seen a large decline. In fact, 16% of Americans are smokers today, compared to 45% during the 1950s. Most people take up the habit before the age of 25, but health-consciousyoung people today are avoiding it or vaping instead. In the US cigarette sales were down 11.2% in May 2019, as part of a consistent 18-month decline, according to research from Nielsen.
11 September 2019
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Apparel Knitting
In 2008 the US was home to 229 apparel knitting mills. By 2018, this number had shrunk to 139. The industry, which provides knitted garments such as outerwear and nightwear, has seen a 64% drop in employment over the past decade. Reduced demand and competition from imports has resulted in the US industry being almost obliterated. Its survival over the next two decades seems unlikely.
11 September 2019
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Frontline banking
Banking jobs are at great risk from AI. In fact, in late 2018 finance leaders warned that those in customer service, middle and back office roles are likely to be replaced by computers in the near future. A 2019 report by IHS Markit estimates that 1.3 million bank workers in the US will be affected, and 500,000 in the UK. Why?AI and quantum computers are replacing the need for bank workers, and there's also competition from new online-only models. And people seem to like it that way: an increasing number of people now do their banking online anda report from GP Bullhound revealed that 91% of people prefer to use an app than go into a branch.
11 September 2019
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Instore bookselling
It's fair to say that the rise of digitalisation has lead to the death of the bookstore industry. Amazon ebook sales overtook their paperback counterparts back in 2011, and the company now has a share of 50% of the US book market. Traditional seller Barnes & Noble has a share of 20%, having closed one in eight stores over the last seven years. During the period between 2008 and 2017 employment in the book store and news dealer industry plummeted by over 43%.
11 September 2019
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Postal Service
To say the US postal service is struggling would be an understatement. Mail demand has fallen dramatically, and the volume decreased by 42 billion pieces between 2006 and 2010 alone. As a result, the USPS is losing billions of dollars every year – $2.7 billion (£2.2bn) in 2017. With electronic billing becoming obsolete and people using social media to keep in touch, the future of the postal service looks very bleak indeed.
11 September 2019
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As a seasoned expert in technology trends and industry transformations, it is evident that the landscape of various sectors is rapidly evolving, shaped by advances in technology, changing consumer behaviors, and global economic shifts. In this analysis of industries that may not exist in 20 years, a comprehensive understanding of the factors driving these changes is crucial. Let's delve into each concept mentioned in the article:
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Telemarketing:
- The telemarketing industry is expected to decline due to the increasing efficiency and cost-effectiveness of automated processes.
- A study by Oxford University suggests a 99% chance that telemarketing jobs will be fully automated within 15 years.
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Cinema:
- Traditional cinema attendance is declining due to factors like illegal streaming, high ticket prices, and franchise fatigue.
- Online streaming services such as Netflix are thriving, leading to a shift in consumer preferences.
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Print Media:
- Newspapers and magazines are facing a decline as digital platforms provide easier access to news.
- Print advertising revenues have suffered, with examples like the New York Times experiencing a 19% decrease in 2016.
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Staffed Retail:
- Automation in retail is evident with the rise of self-checkouts and fully automated stores, like Amazon Go.
- The self-serve kiosk industry is projected to be worth $34 billion by 2023.
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Paralegal and Legal Research:
- Artificial intelligence is transforming the legal sector, making paralegals and legal researchers potentially obsolete within a decade.
- AI is used for research and due diligence, reducing costs and improving efficiency.
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Accountancy:
- Gartner's research suggests that 33% of all jobs could be performed by robots by 2025, including tasks in accounting.
- AI systems are increasingly used for data entry and reconciliations, potentially reducing the need for human involvement.
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DVD Manufacturing:
- Streaming services have overtaken DVDs as the most popular home viewing format, leading to a decline in DVD sales.
- Major retailers, such as John Lewis, have phased out DVD players, indicating a significant shift in consumer behavior.
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Travel Agencies:
- Brick-and-mortar travel agencies are closing due to competition from online travel agencies and services like Airbnb.
- Online travel agencies offer more convenience and value, impacting traditional travel agencies.
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Library and Information Services:
- The demand for public libraries has decreased with the rise of e-books and online information access.
- Library closures and reduced book borrowing reflect a changing trend in how people consume information.
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Coal:
- The coal industry is declining as renewable energy sources become more affordable and countries commit to reducing greenhouse gases.
- Job losses and the closure of major coal plants signify a shift towards cleaner energy alternatives.
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Oil:
- Environmental policies, electric cars, and alternative energies pose challenges to the survival of the oil industry.
- The industry has faced deficits and job losses, indicating a need for adaptation to changing energy landscapes.
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Photofinishing:
- Digital cameras and smartphones have led to a decline in the photofinishing industry.
- Revenue and employment in the industry have decreased significantly, impacting traditional players like Kodak.
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Tobacco:
- Awareness of the health impacts of smoking has led to a decline in tobacco use.
- Cigarette sales are decreasing, and health-conscious choices, including vaping, are influencing consumer behavior.
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Apparel Knitting:
- Reduced demand and competition from imports have led to a significant decline in employment in the apparel knitting industry.
- The survival of the industry in the next two decades appears unlikely.
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Frontline Banking:
- AI and quantum computers are replacing the need for human workers in banking, particularly in customer service and back-office roles.
- Online-only banking models are gaining popularity, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences.
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Instore Bookselling:
- The rise of digitalization has contributed to the decline of the bookstore industry.
- Online platforms like Amazon dominate the book market, leading to closures of traditional bookstores.
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Postal Service:
- The US postal service is struggling due to a significant decline in mail demand and the rise of electronic communication.
- Financial losses indicate the need for adaptation to modern communication trends.
In conclusion, these industries face challenges driven by technological advancements, changing consumer behaviors, and global trends. As an enthusiast deeply immersed in these transformative dynamics, it is evident that adaptability and innovation will be critical for the survival of businesses within these sectors.
