India will overtake China as the world's most populous country by the end of this month, the United Nations said Monday.
By the end of April, India's population is expected to reach 1.425 billion, which means it will match and then surpass mainland China’s population, the U.N.’s Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) said.
“China’s population reached its peak size of 1.426 billion in 2022 and has started to fall. Projections indicate that the size of the Chinese population could drop below 1 billion before the end of the century,” the agency said.
The DESA announcement comes after the U.N. Population Fund said last week that India would have 2.9 million more people than China by the middle of 2023.
The announcement has sparked questions about whether India can repeat the economic miracle that took China out of poverty and into the ranks of the world's leading powers.
India is promoting itself as a rising global power as the host of this year's Group of 20 Summit, to be held in New Delhi in September. The G-20 is made up of the world’s major economies.
Demographers say the limits of population data make it impossible to calculate an exact date when India’s population will surpass China’s. It’s possible it may have already done so.
“The precise timing of this crossover isn't known, and it will never be known,” said John Wilmoth, director of the United Nations population division, at a news conference at the U.N. in New York.
India, which last conducted a census in 2011, has not commented on the U.N. estimates.
The timing of when India surpasses China in population will likely be revised once India conducts its next census, Wilmoth said.
China's population peaked in 2022 and has started to fall. The country's elderly population is swelling while its birth rate is plunging, from 1.7 babies per woman in 2017 to 1.2 in 2022, according to U.N. data.
In contrast, India has the world's largest young population, a higher fertility rate and is seeing a consistent decrease in infant mortality. Experts don’t see a need for alarm regarding overpopulation as the country's fertility rate has been steadily falling, from over five births per woman in the 1960s to two in 2022.
India's population is expected to stop growing and stabilize around 2064, The Associated Press reported.
Some information from this report came from The Associated Press and Reuters.
As a demographic expert with a profound understanding of global population trends and statistical analyses, I can confidently provide insight into the information presented in the article. My expertise in the field allows me to assess the accuracy of the data, identify key demographic indicators, and offer a comprehensive perspective on the implications of India surpassing China as the world's most populous country.
Firstly, the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) is a reputable source for population statistics, and their projections are based on rigorous analysis of demographic trends. The article mentions that by the end of April, India's population is expected to reach 1.425 billion, surpassing mainland China. The DESA also predicts that China's population, having peaked at 1.426 billion in 2022, is on a declining trajectory and may drop below 1 billion by the end of the century.
The accuracy of these projections is crucial, and it's worth noting the precision with which the UN Population Fund predicted that India would have 2.9 million more people than China by the middle of 2023. This adds credibility to the claim of India becoming the most populous nation soon.
The article touches upon the economic implications of this demographic shift. Drawing parallels with China's economic rise, it raises questions about whether India can replicate a similar economic miracle. India's self-promotion as a rising global power, particularly in the context of hosting the G-20 Summit, underscores the significance of demographic changes in shaping a nation's global standing.
Demographers acknowledge the challenges in pinpointing the exact moment when India's population surpasses China's due to the limitations of available data. The director of the United Nations population division, John Wilmoth, emphasizes the uncertainty in calculating this crossover and suggests that it may have already occurred. The reliance on the next census, coupled with the acknowledgment that China's population is in decline, adds nuance to the discussion.
In comparing the demographic profiles of India and China, the article highlights critical factors such as China's aging population and declining birth rate, contrasting with India's large young population, higher fertility rate, and consistent decrease in infant mortality. The data presented, including India's fertility rate dropping from over five births per woman in the 1960s to two in 2022, reflects a nuanced understanding of population dynamics.
To alleviate concerns about overpopulation, experts point to India's expected population stabilization around 2064, attributed to the declining fertility rate. This long-term perspective aligns with the broader discourse on global population trends and sustainability.
In conclusion, the information in the article is underpinned by reliable demographic data, and the analysis takes into account the complexities of population dynamics, economic implications, and the challenges in predicting precise demographic crossovers.
