Impact of Population Growth and One Child Policy on Economic Growth of China (2024)

See all articles by Qilei Fang

Qilei Fang

University of Nottingham, Ningbo

Chee Kian Leong

University of Nottingham, Ningbo China

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between population growth and economic growth of China at both the national level and provincial level. We base our specification on a version of neoclassical Solow model and incorporates the one child policy implemented in 1979 as a policy variable. At the national level, a 1% increase of population growth rate would facilitate a 1.7% increase in economic growth rate. However, the one child policy slowed down the population growth, which indirectly lowered the national economic growth. At the provincial level, the impact of population growth becomes negative after 1979 with every 1% increase in population growth decreasing GDP by 1.2%. The one child policy plays a statistically significant and positive role in provincial economic growth.

Fang, Qilei and Leong, Chee Kian, Impact of Population Growth and One Child Policy on Economic Growth of China (July 10, 2014). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2464426 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2464426