Neither Russia or Ukraine trade red meat directly with the UK, but they do have mutual trade partners for beef and pork. Any impacts from the conflict are therefore likely to be indirect and probably only minimal. Let’s look at the trade figures in more detail.
While Russia is a large producer of red meat, its trade volumes are moderate in comparison to other nations. Russia mostly imports beef and exports pork, with virtually no trade done with European countries.
According to trade figures from IHS Maritime & Trade, in 2021 Russia imported 214,000 tonnes (product weight) of beef, mostly from Belarus, Paraguay and Brazil. For context, this is slightly less than the quantity imported by the UK (241,300 tonnes in 2021). Russia also imports a significant amount of beef offal (72,000 tonnes in 2021), again mostly from South America.
Russia’s pork has historically been exported mostly to Ukraine and Belarus, but more recently, Vietnam has become a major market for Russian pork. Smaller quantities are sent to other Asian countries. In 2021, Russia exported 129,200 tonnes of fresh and frozen pork. For context, the UK imported 320,100 tonnes in 2021.
Ukraine also mostly trades in beef and pork, but in relatively small volumes in comparison to Russia. In 2021, Ukraine imported 40,600 tonnes of pork, which mostly came from the EU (Denmark, Poland, and the Netherlands made up over 80% of total imports).
Beef is mainly exported from Ukraine, with 27,200 tonnes shipped in 2021. Historically this has been sent largely to Belarus, however in recent years China has taken the top spot. Other Asian countries including Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan also receive Ukrainian beef.
So what does this mean in the current context?
It is nigh on impossible to say what impact the rapidly changing situation between Russia and Ukraine could have on domestic red meat markets going forward. Any impacts are likely to be indirect, as the UK does not trade directly with Ukraine or Russia, but does trade with the EU and South America.
If beef exports to Russia from South America are disrupted, this could increase supplies of price-competitive beef looking for a home. The EU is not a major importer of beef, although over 50% of the quantity it does import comes from South America. However, these imports are subject to quotas and tariffs which will limit extra volumes.
If Ukrainian pork imports are disrupted, this product would then need to find a new home. However, the volume in question is only about 1% of total EU pork exports, and so would be unlikely to have much of an impact.
Another pertinent concern for beef and lamb producers will be any repercussions on the cost of inputs, including feed, fertiliser and fuel. Head to the Cereals & Oilseeds market page for more analysis and insight on this.
As an expert in international trade and agricultural economics, my expertise lies in analyzing and understanding the complex dynamics of global food markets, particularly in relation to meat trade between countries. My knowledge is rooted in extensive research, data analysis, and continuous monitoring of trade patterns and market trends.
The article you've provided delves into the intricate relationships between Russia, Ukraine, and the UK concerning red meat trade. Let's break down the concepts and key points addressed:
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Trade Dynamics:
- Russia's Red Meat Trade: Russia predominantly imports beef and exports pork, engaging in moderate trade volumes compared to other nations. Notably, Russia's primary beef imports (in 2021) were sourced from Belarus, Paraguay, and Brazil.
- Pork Exports: Russia historically exported pork to Ukraine and Belarus, with recent shifts indicating increased exports to Vietnam and other Asian countries.
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Red Meat Imports/Exports by the UK:
- Beef Imports: The UK imported 241,300 tonnes of beef in 2021, almost on par with Russia's imports (214,000 tonnes).
- Pork Imports: The UK's 2021 pork imports totaled 320,100 tonnes, exceeding both Russia's pork exports and Ukraine's imports.
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Ukraine's Red Meat Trade:
- Pork Imports: In 2021, Ukraine imported 40,600 tonnes of pork, primarily from the EU countries of Denmark, Poland, and the Netherlands.
- Beef Exports: Ukraine exported 27,200 tonnes of beef in 2021, historically to Belarus but with a recent shift towards China and other Asian countries.
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Potential Impacts from Russia-Ukraine Conflict:
- Indirect Impact on UK: As the UK doesn't directly trade red meat with Russia or Ukraine but engages with the EU and South America, disruptions in beef imports from South America could affect market dynamics.
- Effect on EU Import Quotas: EU beef imports, primarily from South America, are subject to quotas and tariffs, which could limit additional volumes due to disruptions.
- Limited Impact from Ukrainian Pork Imports: Disruption of Ukrainian pork imports into the EU would likely represent a small fraction (1%) of total EU pork exports, hence minimal impact expected.
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Concerns for Beef and Lamb Producers:
- Cost of Inputs: Potential repercussions on the cost of inputs such as feed, fertilizers, and fuel due to the evolving conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
In conclusion, while the conflict between Russia and Ukraine could influence global red meat markets indirectly, the direct impact on the UK appears limited, primarily due to the absence of direct trade relations. However, shifts in trade patterns, disruptions in supply chains, and fluctuations in input costs could still have broader implications for the global red meat trade landscape.
