How Much Money Does the World Owe China? (2024)

Summary.

China’s growing role in international finance has remained obscure, mostly due to a lack of data and transparency. The authors’ research, based on a comprehensive new data set, reveals that between 1949 and 2017, thestate and its subsidiaries lent about $1.5 trillion to more than 150 countries across the globe — much of which has been hidden from public view. They found thatChina tends to lend at market terms, meaning at interest rates that are close to those in private capital markets, rather than the concessional rates offered by other official entities, such as the World Bank or IMF. And their analysis found that 50% of China’s loans to developing countries go unreported, which distorts the views of the official and private sectors in three material ways: 1) Official surveillance work is hampered when parts of a country’s debt are unknown. 2) Private sectors will misprice debt contracts, such as sovereign bonds, if they fail to grasp the true scope of a government’s debts — a problem that’s compounded by the collateral clauses in many Chinese official loans, meaning that China will get preferential treatment when it comes to repayments. And 3) Forecasters of global economic activity are missing an important swing factor influencing aggregate global demand.

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While China’s role in global trade is highly publicized and politically polarizing, its growing influence in international finance has remained more obscure, mostly due to a lack of data and transparency. Over the past two decades, China has become a major global lender, with outstanding claims now exceeding more than 5% of global GDP. Almost all of this lending is official, coming from the government and state-controlled entities.

Our research, based on a comprehensive new data set, shows that China has extended many more loans to developing countries than previously known. This systematic underreporting of Chinese loans has created a “hidden debt” problem – meaning that debtor countries and international institutions alike have an incomplete picture on how much countries around the world owe to China and under which conditions.

In total, the Chinese state and its subsidiaries have lent about $1.5 trillion in direct loans and trade credits to more than 150 countries around the globe. This has turned China into the world’s largest official creditor — surpassing traditional, official lenders such as the World Bank, the IMF, or all OECD creditor governments combined.

Despite the large size of China’s overseas lending boom, no official data exists on the resulting debt flows and stocks. China does not report on its international lending, and Chinese loans literally fall through the cracks of traditional data-gathering institutions. For example, credit rating agencies, such as Moody’s or Standard & Poor’s, or data providers, such as Bloomberg, focus on private creditors, but China’s lending is state sponsored, and therefore off their radar screen. Debtor countries themselves often do not collect data on debt owed by state-owned companies, which are the main recipients of Chinese loans. In addition, China is not a member of the Paris Club (an informal group of creditor nations) or the OECD, both of which collect data on lending by official creditors.

To address this lack of knowledge, we embarked on a multi-year data-gathering effort. We compiled data from hundreds of primary and secondary sources, put together by academic institutions, think tanks, and government agencies (including historical information from the Central Intelligence Agency). The resulting database provided the first comprehensive picture of China’s overseas debt stocks and flows worldwide, including nearly 2,000 loans and nearly 3,000 grants from the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949 to 2017. Most Chinese loans have helped finance large-scale investments in infrastructure, energy, and mining.

What We Learned About China’s Overseas Lending

Our data show that almost all of China’s lending is undertaken by the government and various state-owned entities, such as public enterprises and public banks. China’s overseas lending boom is unique in comparison to capital outflows from the United States or Europe, which are largely privately driven. We also show that China tends to lend at market terms, meaning at interest rates that are close to those in private capital markets. Other official entities, such as the World Bank, typically lend at concessional, below-market interest rates, and longer maturities. In addition, many Chinese loans are backed by collateral, meaning that debt repayments are secured by revenues, such as those coming from commodity exports.

The People’s Republic has always been an active international lender. In the 1950s and 1960s, when it lent money to other Communist states, China accounted for a small share of world GDP, so the lending had little or no impact on the pattern of global capital flows. Today, Chinese lending is substantial across the globe. The last comparable surge in state-driven capital outflows was the U.S. lending to war-ravaged Europe in the aftermath of World War II, including programs such as the Marshall Plan. But even then, about 90% of the $100 billion (in today’s dollars) spent in Europe comprised grants and aid. Very little came at market terms and with strings attached such as collateral.

On the borrower side, debt is accumulating fast: For the 50 main developing country recipients, we estimate that the average stock of debt owed to China has increased from less than 1% of debtor country GDP in 2005 to more than 15% in 2017. A dozen of these countries owe debt of at least 20% of their nominal GDP to China (Djibouti, Tonga, Maldives, the Republic of the Congo, Kyrgyzstan, Cambodia, Niger, Laos, Zambia, Samoa, Vanuatu, and Mongolia).

Maybe more importantly, our analysis reveals that 50% of China’s loans to developing countries go unreported, meaning that these debt stocks do not appear in the “gold standard” data sources provided by the World Bank, the IMF, or credit-rating agencies. The unreported lending from China has grown to more than $200 billion USD as of 2016.

Hidden Debts and Hidden Risks

Failing to account for these “hidden debts” to China distorts the views of the official and private sectors in three material ways. First, official surveillance work is hampered when parts of a country’s debt are not known. Assessing repayment burdens and financial risks requires detailed knowledge on all outstanding debt instruments.

Second, the private sector will misprice debt contracts, such as sovereign bonds, if it fails to grasp the true scope of debts that a government owes. This problem is aggravated by the fact that many Chinese official loans have collateral clauses, so that China may be treated preferentially in case of repayment problems. As a result, private investors and other competing creditors may underestimate the risk of default on their claims.

And, third, forecasters of global economic activity who are unaware of surges and stops of Chinese lending miss an important swing factor influencing aggregate global demand. One could look to the lending surge of the 1970s, when resource-rich, low-income countries received large amounts of syndicated bank loans from the U.S., Europe, and Japan, for a relevant precedent. That lending cycle ended badly once commodity prices and economic growth slumped, and dozens of developing countries went into default during the bust that followed.

But developing country loans are just one element of China’s overseas lending activities. When adding portfolio debts (including the $1 trillion of U.S. Treasury debt purchased by China’s central bank) and trade credits (to buy goods and services), the Chinese government’s aggregate claims to the rest of the world exceed $5 trillion in total. In other words, countries worldwide owed more than 6% of world GDP in debt to China as of 2017.

Yet another important element to China’s presence in global finance is the growing network of swap lines by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). Central bank swap lines can be understood as standing lines of credit, where central banks agree on exchanging their currencies to facilitate trade settlements and to address liquidity needs. As of 2018, the PBoC has signed swap agreements with more than 40 central banks (ranging from Argentina to Ukraine), providing the right to exchange more than U.S. $550 billion of their own currencies for Chinese currency (the renminbi or RMB). As a result, nations facing financial strains can turn to China before the international financial institutions, including the IMF. Since 2013, Argentina, Mongolia, Pakistan, Russia and Turkey all have made use of their RMB swap lines in periods of market distress.

Why does this matter? IMF lending is transparent, and it is usually conditioned on a plan to improve national policies. This is not necessarily the case for Chinese lending, which gives rise to important questions of creditor seniority. For example, if a nation indebted to China turns to the IMF, officials should be aware that any funds the IMF disburses may be used to pay another official creditor, China, rather than be used to blunt market strains.

Looking ahead, we find that credit outflows from China have slowed markedly since 2015, in parallel to China’s ongoing domestic economic slowdown. We’ve also documented a recent surge in the number of credit events on Chinese loans, which have not appeared in the reports of international credit rating agencies. Since 2011, two dozen developing countries have restructured their debt to China. This recent increase in the incidence of sovereign debt restructurings of Chinese debt may have a benign interpretation, but given the slower growth and lower commodity prices of recent years, it may well be a sign of brewing liquidity and solvency problems in numerous developing countries. Against this backdrop, much more work is needed to analyze the characteristics and potential impact of China’s lending around the world. If China’s role in international finance continues in the shadows, global risk assessments and country surveillance work will remain dangerously incomplete.

How Much Money Does the World Owe China? (2024)

FAQs

How Much Money Does the World Owe China? ›

When adding portfolio debts (including the $1 trillion of U.S. Treasury debt purchased by China's central bank) and trade credits (to buy goods and services), the Chinese government's aggregate claims to the rest of the world exceed $5 trillion in total.

How many countries owe China money? ›

At the end of 2021, of the 98 countries for whom data was available, Pakistan ($27.4 billion of external debt to China), Angola (22.0 billion), Ethiopia (7.4 billion), Kenya (7.4 billion) and Sri Lanka (7.2 billion) held the biggest debts to China.

Who owes the most debt to China? ›

An Associated Press analysis of a dozen countries most indebted to China — including Pakistan, Kenya, Zambia, Laos and Mongolia — found paying back that debt is consuming an ever-greater amount of the tax revenue needed to keep schools open, provide electricity and pay for food and fuel.

How much does USA owe China? ›

Top Foreign Holders of U.S. Debt
RankCountryU.S. Treasury Holdings
1🇯🇵 Japan$1,076B
2🇨🇳 China$867B
3🇬🇧 United Kingdom$655B
4🇧🇪 Belgium$354B
6 more rows
Mar 24, 2023

How much does China owe the world? ›

As of 2020, China's total government debt stands at approximately ¥ RMB 46 trillion (US$ 7.0 trillion), equivalent to about 45% of GDP.

Does China owe the US money? ›

As of January 2023, the five countries owning the most US debt are Japan ($1.1 trillion), China ($859 billion), the United Kingdom ($668 billion), Belgium ($331 billion), and Luxembourg ($318 billion).

Which country has highest debt? ›

Here are the 25 countries with the highest debt-to-GDP ratios:
  • Sri Lanka. ...
  • Portugal. Debt to GDP Ratio: 114% ...
  • Cuba. Debt to GDP Ratio: 117% ...
  • Bahrain. Debt to GDP Ratio: 120% ...
  • Zambia. Debt to GDP Ratio: 123% ...
  • Suriname. Debt to GDP Ratio: 124% ...
  • Bhutan. Debt to GDP Ratio: 125% ...
  • United States. Debt to GDP Ratio: 129%
May 18, 2023

Who owes the US money? ›

Many people believe that much of the U.S. national debt is owed to foreign countries like China and Japan, but the truth is that most of it is owed to Social Security and pension funds right here in the U.S. This means that U.S. citizens own most of the national debt.

Is China in more debt than the US? ›

Therefore, China's national debt has surged almost three times that of the United States in the past 12 months. In the third spot, Japan has a national debt of $13.36 trillion, indicating a drop of $1.49 trillion YoY.

Who owns the US debt? ›

Investors in Japan and China hold significant shares of U.S. public debt. Together, as of September 2022, they accounted for nearly $2 trillion, or about 8 percent of DHBP. While China's holdings of U.S. debt have declined over the past decade, Japan has slightly increased their purchases of U.S. Treasury securities.

How much does Russia owe the US? ›

How much does Russia owe? About $40 billion US in foreign bonds, about half of that to foreigners. Before the start of the war, Russia had around $640 billion US in foreign currency and gold reserves, much of which was held overseas and is now frozen.

What happens if China sells U.S. debt? ›

Since the U.S. dollar has a variable exchange rate, however, any sale by any nation holding huge U.S. debt or dollar reserves will trigger the adjustment of the trade balance at the international level. The offloaded U.S. reserves by China will either end up with another nation or will return back to the U.S.

Why China buys U.S. debt? ›

China buys US bonds to sustain its trade surplus with the US

Nothing can be farther from the truth. China purchases US government bonds not to accommodate US needs; instead, Beijing does so to continue running the current account surplus to provide domestic employment and relative domestic stability.

What country is debt free? ›

The 20 countries with the lowest national debt in 2022 in relation to gross domestic product (GDP)
CharacteristicNational debt in relation to GDP
Macao SAR0%
Brunei Darussalam2.06%
Kuwait2.92%
Hong Kong SAR4.26%
9 more rows
May 11, 2023

Is there any country not in debt? ›

Learning about Countries and Their Debt

The best example can be taken from Hong Kong (it is a one of the debt free countries), whose economy has the least debt to GDP ratio. It is an almost debt free country. It has a well-regulated financial system and large foreign reserves.

Is China's debt a problem? ›

China's debt overhang far exceeds the burdens facing the United States. As recently as 2020, total debt in the United States relative to GDP exceeded China's. But as of mid-2022, China's relative debt burden stood 40 percent higher than America's.

What countries owe the US? ›

Debts and Debtors of the US Government
Country NameValue of Holdings (Billions of $)
Japan1,090.8
Mainland China1,058.4
Ireland288.2
Cayman Islands263.5
31 more rows

Why does the US owe so much money? ›

Since the government almost always spends more than it takes in via taxes and other revenue, the national debt continues to rise. To finance federal budget deficits, the U.S. government issues government bonds, known as Treasuries.

Why is America in debt? ›

Flashpoints that greatly contributed to the debt over the past 50 years include the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic -- the latter two prompting sweeping stimulus measures from Congress that cost trillions of dollars.

Could the US ever get out of debt? ›

Eliminating the U.S. government's debt is a Herculean task that could take decades. In addition to obvious steps, such as hiking taxes and slashing spending, the government could take a number of other approaches, some of them unorthodox and even controversial. Below are some of these options.

What happens if a country refuses to pay its debt? ›

A sovereign default happens when a country's government fails to pay its debt obligations. A sovereign default can have serious economic consequences for the borrowing nation, making it harder and more expensive to borrow money in the future and pay its ongoing obligations.

What country is the US most in debt to? ›

According to usafacts.org, as of January 2023, Japan owned $1.1 trillion in US Treasuries, making it the largest foreign holder of the national debt. The second-largest holder is China, which owned $859 billion of US debt.

Who caused the US debt? ›

The U.S. debt is the total federal financial obligation owed to the public and intragovernmental departments. The U.S. national debt is so big because Congress continues both deficit spending and tax cuts.

How long will it take to pay off the US national debt? ›

To pay back one million dollars, at a rate of one dollar per second, would take you 11.5 days. To pay back one billion dollars, at a rate of one dollar per second, would take you 32 years. To pay back one trillion dollars, at a rate of one dollar per second, would take you 31,688 years.

When did the US start going into debt? ›

While the war was still going on, in 1781, Congress established the U.S. Department of Finance. Two years later, as the war ended in 1783, the Department of Finance reported U.S. debt to the American Public for the first time.

How likely is the US to default? ›

There's just a 2% possibility the U.S. government will default on its loans, according to analysts at Deutsche Bank, despite days of stalled-out negotiations.

What happens if US defaults on debt? ›

So if the U.S. cannot pay its creditors, interest rates on U.S. debt would go up, creating a cascade of higher interest rates. So mortgage rates, credit card rates, car loan rates. All would become more expensive. Finally, there is a real concern about the economy — that a default could spark a recession.

How much is the United States worth? ›

The financial position of the United States includes assets of at least $269.6 trillion (1576% of GDP) and debts of $145.8 trillion (852% of GDP) to produce a net worth of at least $123.8 trillion (723% of GDP){{refn|name=position|group=lower-alpha|See section Estimated financial position, Q1 2014 for calculations.

How much debt can the US handle? ›

The debt limit caps the total amount of allowable outstanding U.S. federal debt. The U.S. hit that limit—$31.4 trillion—on January 19, 2023, but the Department of the Treasury has been undertaking a set of “extraordinary measures” so that the debt limit does not yet bind.

Why does the US owe Japan so much money? ›

Because Japan exports so many goods to the U.S. and other nations, the country frequently develops an account surplus in dollars - the currency the U.S. and other countries give Japan in exchange for their products.

How much money does the US owe Mexico? ›

But guess who else the U.S government owes money to? That would be México. México holds about $34 billion on U.S debt.

How much money does the US owe itself? ›

Nearly all of that debt – about $31.38 trillion – is subject to the statutory debt limit, leaving just $25 million in unused borrowing capacity. For several years, the nation's debt has been bigger than its gross domestic product, which was $26.13 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2022.

How much war debt does the US have? ›

Many experts estimate that since 2001, the United States has spent as much as $5.1 trillion on war and war-related costs such as veteran care, ally assistance and stronger homeland security. By this figure, the war is responsible for nearly a third of the total national debt.

What companies does China own in the United States? ›

Keep reading to see which U.S. giants are backed by foreign conglomerates.
  • AMC. Popular cinema company AMC, short for American Multi-Cinema, has been around for over a century and is headquartered in Leawood, KS. ...
  • General Motors. ...
  • Spotify. ...
  • Snapchat. ...
  • Hilton Hotels. ...
  • General Electric Appliance Division. ...
  • 49 Comments.
Jan 12, 2021

Is China dumping US bonds? ›

“[The US data] shows that Chinese investors have indeed shown a tendency to accelerate the reduction of US treasury bonds in 2022,” Zhang said in an article published earlier this month.

Can I buy U.S. debt? ›

Treasury bonds, notes and bills are low-risk investments issued by the U.S. government. You can buy them from the government directly, and many buy them through a brokerage, retirement or bank account.

Who owns TikTok? ›

Fact: TikTok's parent company ByteDance Ltd. was founded by Chinese entrepreneurs, but today, roughly sixty percent of the company is beneficially owned by global institutional investors such as Carlyle Group, General Atlantic, and Susquehanna International Group.

When was the last time the US had no debt? ›

When was the last time the U.S. was debt free? January 1835 was the first and only time all of the government's interest-bearing debt was paid off, according to the Treasury Department.

When was the last time our country was debt free? ›

1837: Andrew Jackson

This resulted in a huge government surplus of funds. (In 1835, the $17.9 million budget surplus was greater than the total government expenses for that year.) By January of 1835, for the first and only time, all of the government's interest-bearing debt was paid off.

How can the US pay off its debt? ›

Raising taxes can generate revenue that the government can use to pay down debt as well as invest in programs that support the economy. But it can cut into tax revenue and hurt the economy if the government raises taxes too high. Finding the correct balance is expressed by a concept known as the "Laffer Curve."

What would happen if China called in our debt? ›

If China called in all of its U.S. holdings, the U.S. dollar would depreciate, whereas the yuan would appreciate, making Chinese goods more expensive.

What countries are in debt to China? ›

An analysis by the Associated Press of a dozen countries most indebted to China — including Pakistan, Kenya, Zambia, Laos and Mongolia — revealed that these nations are now struggling to fund their welfare schemes as well as their education and healthcare systems because most of the tax revenue is going towards paying ...

What countries are trapped in debt to China? ›

China loaned a total of $143 billion to African governments and state-owned enterprises between 2000 and 2017. In 2020, the African countries with the largest Chinese debt were Angola ($25 billion), Ethiopia ($13.5 billion), Zambia ($7.4 billion), the Republic of the Congo ($7.3 billion), and Sudan ($6.4 billion).

Which country owes China? ›

Which Country Owes the Most Money to China? Venezuela is the country with the greatest sovereign debt exposure to China, in terms of direct lending (excluding portfolio holdings), according to AidData's 2021 study, totaling $74.7 billion.

Why does the US owe China so much money? ›

U.S. debt to China comes in the form of U.S. Treasuries, largely due to their safety and stability. Although there are worries about China selling off U.S. debt, which would hamper economic growth, doing so in large amounts poses risks for China as well, making it unlikely to happen.

How much is Russia in debt? ›

Buy Selected Data
country/regionLast
Tax Revenue: % of GDP (%)22.3 Dec 2022
National Government Debt (USD mn)310,442.0 Feb 2023
Government Debt: % of GDP (%)13.4 Sep 2022
Forecast: Government Expenditure (RUB bn)62,113.434 2028
11 more rows

Who does Mexico owe money to? ›

dynamic and g rowing Mexico will be able THE CURRENT DILEMMA Of Mexico's $98 billion foreign debt, nearly $75 billion is owed to commercial banks, with U.S. banks holding about one-third of the IOUs. The rest is owed to other banks worldwide.

How bad is China's debt? ›

China's debt overhang far exceeds the burdens facing the United States. As recently as 2020, total debt in the United States relative to GDP exceeded China's. But as of mid-2022, China's relative debt burden stood 40 percent higher than America's.

Is China in a debt crisis? ›

China's $23 Trillion Local Debt Crisis Threatens Xi's Economy - Bloomberg.

Which country has no debt? ›

The 20 countries with the lowest national debt in 2022 in relation to gross domestic product (GDP)
CharacteristicNational debt in relation to GDP
Macao SAR0%
Brunei Darussalam2.06%
Kuwait2.92%
Hong Kong SAR4.26%
9 more rows
May 11, 2023

Who does the US owe the most money to? ›

Investors in Japan and China hold significant shares of U.S. public debt. Together, as of September 2022, they accounted for nearly $2 trillion, or about 8 percent of DHBP. While China's holdings of U.S. debt have declined over the past decade, Japan has slightly increased their purchases of U.S. Treasury securities.

How much debt is the US in? ›

It's simple. For years, what the U.S. government spent on those things was far greater than the amount of money it had brought in to pay for them. That stacked up to that $31.4 trillion in debt we have now.

What if China dumps U.S. debt? ›

If the China bloc disposes of net foreign assets amounting to more than 20% of GDP by offloading US bloc bonds over 10 years, the IMF finds that the China bloc's domestic interest rates would fall by four basis points.

What would happen if China called in the US debt? ›

The biggest effect of a broad scale dump of US Treasuries by China would be that China would actually export fewer goods to the United States. Overall, foreign countries each make up a relatively small proportion of U.S. debt-holders.

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