How different regions of Gujarat voted in 2012 and why Saurashtra holds the key this time (2024)

New Delhi,UPDATED: Nov 30, 2017 18:23 IST

The BJP has set an ambitious target of winning 150 seats in Gujaraj Assembly election in 182 constituencies next month. The BJP backs itself looking at the Lok Sabha poll results.

The Congress, on the other hand, is fancying its chances of returning to power after 22 years in the state. Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi has led the charge against the BJP hoping that the panchayat and local body elections of 2015 have paved way for a change of power in Gujarat.

Gujarat is politically divided in five regions - Saurashtra, Kutch, north Gujarat, central Gujarat and south Gujarat.

Different regional demarcations have been used by various authors. The regional distribution of Gujarat Assembly seats can be arranged as:

• Saurashtra and Kutch: 54
• South Gujarat: 35
• Northern Gujarat: 32
• Central Gujarat: 61

HOW GUJARAT VOTED IN 2012

Saurashtra and south Gujarat will vote for 89 seats on December 9 in the first phase while polling will be held in 93 constituencies of central and northern regions on December 14.

In 2012, the BJP dominated Saurashtra, Kutch and south Gujarat. The Congress fared relatively well in the north and central Gujarat. Of 48 seats in Saurashtra, the BJP won 33 constituencies while the Congress could win in 13. Three seats of Saurashtra went to others including Gujarat Parivartan Party of Keshubhai Patel.

The BJP has five MLAs from six seats of Kutch district. In south Gujarat, the BJP won 22 of 28 seats including all 12 seats in business hub of Surat. The Congress had to contend with one seat in Kutch and only six in south Gujarat.

In north and central Gujarat, Congress won 41 of its 61 seats in the Assembly. The BJP has won the rest to take its tally to 116 in Gujarat Assembly.

URBAN VERSUS RURAL VOTERS

The BJP is the clear leader when it comes to attracting urban voters in Gujarat while the Congress has an upper hand in terms of both the share of votes polled and number of seats won in villages and remote areas.

In 2012, the BJP polled 59.5 per cent of urban votes while the Congress got only 32.8 per cent. The BPJ almost completely dominated in Ahmedabad, Vadodara and Surat. In rural areas, the BJP got 42.1 per cent vote while the Congress won 42.9 per cent votes.

In terms of seats, the BJP won in 44 constituencies compared to the Congress's 49. The BJP's overall vote share in 2012 was about 48 per cent - 60 per cent of which came from the urban areas - while that of the Congress was around 40.5 per cent.

There are 69 constituencies in Gujarat with more than 50 per cent urban population. According to 2011 Census, Gujarat is among the top five urbanised states of India with over 43 per cent of its population residing in towns and cities.

KEY IS SAURASHTRA

Saurashtra and south Gujarat are being seen as the key regions for Gujarat Assembly election. These areas may decide which party will come to power on December 18, when votes will be counted.

One of the regions for Saurashtra and south Gujarat emerging as key to power in this year's assembly election is Patidar agitation. The Patels are said to be in influential numbers in 60 constituencies of the region.

Patels are broadly categorised under two sub-castes, Kadvas and Leuvas, and two smaller sub-castes, Chaudharys and Anjanas. The four castes and sub-castes of Patels are, though spread all over Gujarat, they have greater concentration of Saurashtra.

This explains why PM Narendra Modi launched his campaign blitzkrieg from Bhuj this week, why Rahul Gandhi is visiting Saurashtra time and again, and why Hardik Patel is virtually camping in the region and exhorting the Patidars to stay united against the BJP.