How America’s Debt Problem Compares to Other Countries—and Why It Matters (2024)

The debt ceiling debate and looming threat of default is rightly bringing attention to the underlying problem of the federal government’s $31 trillion debt load. Last week, as part of our national debt blog series, we reviewed several studies on what has worked internationally and historically in terms of sustainably reducing debt with minimal harm to the economy, finding that reducing spending is key (sooner rather than later) and raising revenue from relatively non-distortionary sources like consumption taxes can also contribute to success. This week, we will provide a more general picture of how U.S. debt compares across countries and discuss some of the downsides of high debt levels.

According to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) measure of central government debt, the U.S. federal government is among the most indebted governments in the world. As of 2021 (the latest available data), federal debt reached 115 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), ranking 16th highest out of 164 countries for which the IMF has data. Japan tops the ranking with central government debt of 221 percent of GDP, followed by Greece, Sudan, Eritrea, and Singapore. Not long ago, the U.S. was among the least indebted countries. In 2001, U.S. federal debt was 42 percent of GDP, lower than debt levels found in 100 other countries.

How America’s Debt Problem Compares to Other Countries—and Why It Matters (1)

As illustrated in Figure 2, using historical data from the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB), U.S. debt surged upward in two stages over the last 20 years, first after the financial crisis in 2008 and then after the COVID-19 pandemic that began in 2020. Gross federal debt climbed to a record high of 128 percent of GDP in 2020 before falling to 123 percent in 2022. The recent downtick was primarily due to a surge in inflation as well as real economic growth coming out of the pandemic, factors that temporarily reduced debt burdens in many countries.

Even more worrying from a U.S. perspective is the debt to come. The Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) latest forecast projects gross debt as a share of GDP will climb to about 132 percent in 2033. The rapid increase is mainly due to population aging and the rising costs of Social Security and Medicare. (The estimate also assumes no major economic calamities will occur.) Removing debt held by federal trust funds and other government accounts, CBO forecasts debt held by the public will grow from 97 percent last year to 118 percent in 2033—the highest level ever—and will continue to grow to 195 percent by 2053.

How America’s Debt Problem Compares to Other Countries—and Why It Matters (2)

The problem may be even worse. Mark Warshawsky and other researchers at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) see rising health-care costs and interest rates contributing to even higher levels of debt. They forecast debt held by the public will grow to 132 percent in 2032 and 258 percent in 2052. Like the CBO forecast, theirs assumes no banking crisis, war, pandemic, or other emergency that might cause a major economic downturn and spike in deficits. As it is, the AEI researchers forecast annual deficits to exceed 6 percent of GDP by 2030 and escalate rapidly thereafter in an unprecedented and “clearly unsustainable” path, around the same time that the Social Security and Medicare trust funds are expected to be depleted.

All of this may seem far off, but the costs of high debt levels are upon us now. They are most clearly visible in the form of high inflation, high interest rates, and slowing economic growth. As John Cochrane, Eric Leeper, Tom Sargent, and other economists have described, the extraordinary surge of federal spending during the pandemic—exceeding $5 trillion through early 2021, or 27 percent of GDP—kicked off a 40-year high in inflation.

That is because the increased spending was not financed by tax increases; it was financed by debt purchased by the Federal Reserve through money creation. To combat high inflation, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to the highest levels in 16 years. That brute force method of slowing the economy through higher borrowing costs has thus far led to heavy losses for investors and several bank failures, among other signs of distress.

High interest rates are also putting pressure on the federal budget, causing interest payments on the debt to crowd out other federal priorities and limiting the federal government’s ability to respond to future crises. According to the CBO, the federal government’s net interest cost will exceed $1 trillion annually by 2029, eclipsing the defense budget.

The financial stress and instability of high interest rates are spreading around the globe, leading the IMF to recommend fiscal restraint as a less economically damaging way to reduce inflation and debt.

Instead, the Biden administration has pushed for the continuation of some of the more costly pandemic-era spending programs, including student loan forgiveness that will add more than $400 billion to deficits over the next 10 years, according to the CBO. And the Inflation Reduction Act enacted last year increased taxes but also increased spending, with current estimates indicating the legislation will worsen deficits on net.

Meanwhile, Republicans and Democrats remain largely unwilling to address the growing cost of Social Security and the major health-care programs, which will consume more than half of the federal budget by 2032, according to the CBO. The demographic factors contributing to the growth of the programs are not uniquely American, as populations are aging rapidly in several countries, especially in Japan and across Europe. There too, pressure is rising on programs that promise benefits for an expanding pool of retirees financed by taxes on a shrinking pool of workers. Economist Eric Leeper describes this dynamic as creating a kind of “insidious” inflationary pressure, as the budgetary imbalance and associated risks grow somewhat imperceptibly over time and the looming policy uncertainty creates costly maneuvering.

Lawmakers should get ahead of growing deficits and debt and provide leadership with sound policy solutions. Our upcoming blog posts in this series will explore options for U.S. lawmakers to reduce debt levels and inflation while supporting long-run economic growth and stability.

How America’s Debt Problem Compares to Other Countries—and Why It Matters (2024)

FAQs

How does US national debt compare to other countries? ›

As of 2021 (the latest available data), federal debt reached 115 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), ranking 16th highest out of 164 countries for which the IMF has data. Japan tops the ranking with central government debt of 221 percent of GDP, followed by Greece, Sudan, Eritrea, and Singapore.

Is U.S. debt worse than other countries? ›

The United States has the world's highest national debt at $31.4 trillion. Global debt currently stands at $305 trillion, $45 trillion higher than before the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF) – a global association of the financial industry.

Why does the US have more debt than other countries? ›

The U.S. debt is the total federal financial obligation owed to the public and intragovernmental departments. The U.S. national debt is so big because Congress continues both deficit spending and tax cuts.

How does the US compared to other developed countries when you look at debt as a percentage of GDP? ›

Among the most populated countries, the United States ranks second behind Japan in terms of debt as a percentage of GDP.

What country holds the most U.S. debt? ›

According to usafacts.org, as of January 2023, Japan owned $1.1 trillion in US Treasuries, making it the largest foreign holder of the national debt. The second-largest holder is China, which owned $859 billion of US debt.

How is the US the richest country with so much debt? ›

It's high because the U.S. continues to spend more than it receives in revenue. Therefore, it must issue more debt to cover the difference. The national debt is an accumulation of federal budget deficits. Every spending program and tax cut adds to the debt unless paid for by new appropriations.

Why does the US have such a high debt? ›

Flashpoints that greatly contributed to the debt over the past 50 years include the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic -- the latter two prompting sweeping stimulus measures from Congress that cost trillions of dollars.

Who has the biggest debt in the world? ›

United States. The United States boasts both the world's biggest national debt in terms of dollar amount and its largest economy, which resolves to a debt-to GDP ratio of approximately 128.13%. The United States' government's spending exceeds its income most years, and the US has not had a budget surplus since 2001.

Does the US own most of its debt? ›

Many people believe that much of the U.S. national debt is owed to foreign countries like China and Japan, but the truth is that most of it is owed to Social Security and pension funds right here in the U.S. This means that U.S. citizens own most of the national debt.

How can the US get out of debt? ›

There are a number of methods to reduce the U.S. national debt that go beyond raising taxes and cutting discretionary spending. One of the most controversial is to open the nation's borders to more immigration, kick-starting entrepreneurship and consumption.

Who owns America's debt? ›

Investors in Japan and China hold significant shares of U.S. public debt. Together, as of September 2022, they accounted for nearly $2 trillion, or about 8 percent of DHBP. While China's holdings of U.S. debt have declined over the past decade, Japan has slightly increased their purchases of U.S. Treasury securities.

Why is the US debt bad for the economy? ›

Rising debt reduces business investment and slows economic growth. It also increases expectations of higher rates of inflation and erosion of confidence in the U.S. dollar.

Why can't the US make more money to get out of debt? ›

The Fed tries to influence the supply of money in the economy to promote noninflationary growth. Unless there is an increase in economic activity commensurate with the amount of money that is created, printing money to pay off the debt would make inflation worse.

How long will it take to pay off the US national debt? ›

To pay back one million dollars, at a rate of one dollar per second, would take you 11.5 days. To pay back one billion dollars, at a rate of one dollar per second, would take you 32 years. To pay back one trillion dollars, at a rate of one dollar per second, would take you 31,688 years.

When was the last time America was debt free? ›

1837: Andrew Jackson

This resulted in a huge government surplus of funds. (In 1835, the $17.9 million budget surplus was greater than the total government expenses for that year.) By January of 1835, for the first and only time, all of the government's interest-bearing debt was paid off.

Is the US debt bigger than the economy? ›

For several years, the nation's debt has been bigger than its gross domestic product, which was $26.13 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2022. Debt-to-GDP is a useful metric for analyzing the debt over long time spans, as it puts the debt into relative terms by comparing it against the size of the national economy.

Does China owe the US money? ›

Continuing a trend that began early in 2021, China's portfolio of U.S. government debt in May dropped to $980.8 billion, according to Treasury Department data released Monday. That's a decline of nearly $23 billion from April and down nearly $100 billion, or 9%, from the year-earlier month.

Does the US need to pay off its debt? ›

The US doesn't actually have to pay off its $31 trillion mountain of debt, according to top economist Paul Krugman, hitting back at the idea that government finances can be compared to household balance sheets in an op-ed weeks before the US possibly defaults on some obligations.

How much does Russia owe the US? ›

How much does Russia owe? About $40 billion US in foreign bonds, about half of that to foreigners. Before the start of the war, Russia had around $640 billion US in foreign currency and gold reserves, much of which was held overseas and is now frozen.

Which country has no debt? ›

The 20 countries with the lowest national debt in 2022 in relation to gross domestic product (GDP)
CharacteristicNational debt in relation to GDP
Macao SAR0%
Brunei Darussalam2.06%
Kuwait2.92%
Hong Kong SAR4.26%
9 more rows
May 11, 2023

Who is the US borrowing money from? ›

The federal government borrows money from the public by issuing securities—bills, notes, and bonds—through the Treasury. Treasury securities are attractive to investors because they are: Backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government.

What happens if US defaults on debt? ›

So if the U.S. cannot pay its creditors, interest rates on U.S. debt would go up, creating a cascade of higher interest rates. So mortgage rates, credit card rates, car loan rates. All would become more expensive. Finally, there is a real concern about the economy — that a default could spark a recession.

Is China in a debt crisis? ›

China's $23 Trillion Local Debt Crisis Threatens Xi's Economy - Bloomberg.

Does China have debt? ›

Impact on China's economy

The growing debt has cast a shadow over the country's economic potential for the foreseeable future. Moreover, the transition toward a consumption-driven growth model has yet to yield significant results.

Has the US never been in debt? ›

Except for about a year during 1835–1836, the United States has continuously had a fluctuating public debt. The national debt has increased under every presidential administration since Herbert Hoover. The United States has raised its debt ceiling at least 90 times in the 20th century.

Why does the US owe Japan so much money? ›

Because Japan exports so many goods to the U.S. and other nations, the country frequently develops an account surplus in dollars - the currency the U.S. and other countries give Japan in exchange for their products.

Why does the US borrow money from China? ›

China's demand for Treasurys helps keep U.S. interest rates low. It allows the U.S. Treasury to borrow more at low rates. Congress can then increase the federal spending that spurs U.S. economic growth.

What happens if America doesn't pay its debt? ›

A default on U.S. debt could trigger a worldwide recession and upend stock markets in addition to wreaking havoc in Americans' financial lives.

What happens if the US reaches the debt ceiling? ›

Potential repercussions of reaching the ceiling include a downgrade by credit rating agencies, increased borrowing costs for businesses and homeowners alike, and a dropoff in consumer confidence that could shock the United States' financial market and tip its economy—and the world's—into immediate recession.

Do any countries owe the US debt? ›

In total, other territories hold about $7.4 trillion in U.S. debt. Japan owns the most at $1.1 trillion, followed by China, with $859 billion, and the United Kingdom at $668 billion.

How much does the US owe China? ›

Top Foreign Holders of U.S. Debt
RankCountryU.S. Treasury Holdings
1🇯🇵 Japan$1,076B
2🇨🇳 China$867B
3🇬🇧 United Kingdom$655B
4🇧🇪 Belgium$354B
6 more rows
Mar 24, 2023

How much is the United States worth? ›

For the fourth quarter of 2019, total wealth in the U.S. was $111.04 trillion.

How much debt can the US handle? ›

The debt limit caps the total amount of allowable outstanding U.S. federal debt. The U.S. hit that limit—$31.4 trillion—on January 19, 2023, but the Department of the Treasury has been undertaking a set of “extraordinary measures” so that the debt limit does not yet bind.

How can we solve the debt crisis? ›

10 practical steps for debt solution
  1. Work out a budget and deal with priority debts.
  2. Consolidate or refinance loans.
  3. Get help with late-paying customers.
  4. Gain better control over your cashflow.
  5. Reduce unnecessary spending.
  6. Boost your revenue.
  7. Engage your staff and seek their input.

How can we reduce national debt? ›

Essentially, the debt-to-GDP ratio can be reduced in three ways:
  1. Fiscal austerity (i.e., spending cuts, tax increases or both)
  2. Negative real return on bonds (i.e., a nominal interest rate that is less than the inflation rate)
  3. Economic growth (i.e., GDP growing faster than debt)
Apr 6, 2023

How likely is the US to default? ›

There's just a 2% possibility the U.S. government will default on its loans, according to analysts at Deutsche Bank, despite days of stalled-out negotiations.

Which 2 countries own the majority of US national debt? ›

Investors in Japan and China hold significant shares of U.S. public debt. Together, as of September 2022, they accounted for nearly $2 trillion, or about 8 percent of DHBP. While China's holdings of U.S. debt have declined over the past decade, Japan has slightly increased their purchases of U.S. Treasury securities.

Which 5 countries own the most U.S. debt? ›

As of January 2023, the five countries owning the most US debt are Japan ($1.1 trillion), China ($859 billion), the United Kingdom ($668 billion), Belgium ($331 billion), and Luxembourg ($318 billion).

What does the US national debt equal? ›

In dollar terms, debt held by the public at the end of 2022 was $24.26 trillion. Such debt is issued in a range of maturities from 1-month bills to 30-year bonds. It also includes securities that are not traded in secondary markets, such as savings bonds and state and local government securities.

Could the US ever get out of debt? ›

Eliminating the U.S. government's debt is a Herculean task that could take decades. In addition to obvious steps, such as hiking taxes and slashing spending, the government could take a number of other approaches, some of them unorthodox and even controversial. Below are some of these options.

Does China have more debt than the US? ›

Therefore, China's national debt has surged almost three times that of the United States in the past 12 months. In the third spot, Japan has a national debt of $13.36 trillion, indicating a drop of $1.49 trillion YoY.

Who owes the United States money? ›

Many people believe that much of the U.S. national debt is owed to foreign countries like China and Japan, but the truth is that most of it is owed to Social Security and pension funds right here in the U.S. This means that U.S. citizens own most of the national debt.

Why does the US owe so much money? ›

Since the government almost always spends more than it takes in via taxes and other revenue, the national debt continues to rise. To finance federal budget deficits, the U.S. government issues government bonds, known as Treasuries.

Does anyone owe the US money? ›

About a third of the debt held by the public is held by foreign holders. Foreign countries hold a total of roughly $7.4 trillion of U.S. debt as of the end of June, the most recent month with available data. Japan is the largest holder with about $1.2 trillion in Treasury securities.

What happens if U.S. debt gets too high? ›

Rising debt means fewer economic opportunities for Americans. Rising debt reduces business investment and slows economic growth. It also increases expectations of higher rates of inflation and erosion of confidence in the U.S. dollar.

Why does the US owe so much money to China? ›

U.S. debt to China comes in the form of U.S. Treasuries, largely due to their safety and stability. Although there are worries about China selling off U.S. debt, which would hamper economic growth, doing so in large amounts poses risks for China as well, making it unlikely to happen.

How can the US pay off its debt? ›

Raising taxes can generate revenue that the government can use to pay down debt as well as invest in programs that support the economy. But it can cut into tax revenue and hurt the economy if the government raises taxes too high. Finding the correct balance is expressed by a concept known as the "Laffer Curve."

Does the US debt matter? ›

High levels of debt can diminish economic growth. Rising debt service costs will consume the discretionary budget, crowding out all other priorities; cause higher interest rates and borrowing costs for public and private sectors; weaken investment; and erode the standard of living.

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