Housing market predictions for summer 2023 (2024)

FAQs

Will there be a housing recession in 2023? ›

While there are signs of a slowdown in the housing market's year-over-year growth rate, the overall data and forecasts suggest that a crash is unlikely in 2023.

With mortgage rates declining faster than expected, home prices are likely to remain mostly flat throughout 2024. This will be good news for buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines for a good time to enter the market.

Median Home Price in New York City

NYC housing prices dropped starting in mid-2022, when rising mortgage rates forced many buyers out of the market. As a result, sellers had to lower listing prices (or at least be more willing to negotiate), just to get buyers in the door.

In my opinion, real estate is one intelligent option to consider in 2023, as it often has excellent returns, tax advantages and provides diversification even in the face of a challenging economic climate. Real estate also has the potential to compound your investment.

These organizations predict that mortgage rates will decline through the first quarter of 2024. Fannie Mae, Mortgage Bankers Association and National Association of Realtors expect mortgage rates to drop through the first quarter of 2024, by half a percentage point to about nine-tenths of a percentage point.

“[W]ith the rate of inflation decelerating rates should gently decline over the course of 2023.” Fannie Mae. 30-year fixed rate mortgage will average 6.4% for Q2 2023, according to the May Housing Forecast. National Association of Realtors (NAR).

BENGALURU, May 31 (Reuters) - U.S. home prices will decline less than previously expected this year before stagnating in 2024, despite widespread expectations interest rates will remain higher for longer, according to property analysts polled by Reuters.

“Returning to mortgage rates of 3% or 4% is not going to happen, in my view,” says Yun, who points out that historically rates have been higher. The low rates of 2020 and 2021 were “unique” and those that got them were “lucky,” he says.

Along those lines, organizations like Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association forecast that the average rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages will decline throughout 2023, continuing into the first quarter of 2024.

Market Forecast for 2023

The New York State housing market is likely to continue struggling in 2023 due to the low inventory of homes and rising mortgage interest rates. However, as the interest rates start to decline, they can increase demand for real estate and raise home prices.

Is it a good time to buy a home in NY? ›

In 2021 and early 2022, we were in a seller's market. Since mid 2022 to now, we are in a buyer's market. Buyers (especially those buying all-cash) have the advantage. Prices have recovered significantly from the Covid bottom, but price per sqft is still lower than the peak in 2017.

There are many reasons why everything is expensive in New York City. Some of the key factors include the high demand for housing, high taxes, high transportation costs, and the city's status as a global economic and cultural hub.

Despite what some may think, 2023 is still a good year to invest in real estate, thanks to advantages like long-term appreciation, steady rental income, and the opportunity to hedge against inflation. Mortgage rates are expected to decline, but the housing market is likely to remain competitive due to low supply.

2023 is a balanced year for housing supply and demand. This is ideal for retail purchasers and rental property investors. No longer a “seller's” market. Rising interest rates raise the monthly mortgage payment, which reduces homebuyers and lowers property values.

Economists have long expected the Fed would likely stop raising interest rates at some point in 2023, but “where” rates peak — a level known as the “terminal” rate — is actually more important than “when.”

While it expects the Fed to continue increasing rates to tame inflation, it believes that long-term rates have already peaked. “We expect that 30-year mortgage rates will end 2023 at 5.2%,” the organization noted in its forecast commentary.

Predictions for home prices

Overall, in five years, he expects prices to have appreciated a total of 15–25 percent. McBride predicts home prices will average low- to mid-single-digit annual appreciation over the next five years.

The predictions made by the various analysts and banks provide insight into what the financial markets anticipate for interest rates over the next few years. Based on recent data, Trading Economics predicts a rise to 5% in 2023 before falling back down to 4.25% in 2024 and 3.25% in 2025.

What will mortgage interest rates be in 2023 2024? ›

Fannie Mae expects the 30-year fixed to ease to around 6.1% in the second quarter of 2023, before falling to 5.9% in the third quarter and 5.7% in Q4. And it gets even better than that. By the end of 2024, they expect the 30-year fixed to average 5.2%.

After falling in 2023 and 2024, home prices are predicted to plateau in 2025 before rising again at just above the rate of inflation. However, due to the spike in home values from 2020 through 2022 due to record-low mortgage rates, median sales prices will take at least until 2027 to regain the highs of mid-2022.

If you need to be occupying your home by a certain date to save on rent, it's a much better deal to close at the end of the previous month (for example, January 30) instead of the beginning of the current month (February 1).

House prices in the US have risen by 48.55% in the last ten years (from $173k to $257k) and if they continue to grow at this rate for another decade, the average US home will be worth $382k by 2030.

It's highly unlikely that mortgage rates will revert back to historic numbers of 2-3%. However, based on all current data, there's a pretty good chance that a 15-year fixed rate will flirt with dipping below 5% by the end of 2025.

1) Interest-rate forecast.

We project a year-end 2023 federal-funds rate of 4.75%, falling below 2.00% by mid-2025. That will help drive the 10-year Treasury yield down to 2.25% in 2025 from an average of 3.5% in 2023. We expect the 30-year mortgage rate to fall from an average 6.25% in 2025 to 4% in 2025.

Even so, we're unlikely to see the low rates we saw in 2021. “Interest rates are currently at a 15-year high, so it's difficult to envision this lending environment as going … much higher,” says Jim Black, executive director of lender strategy at Calque, Inc. “But it will be a long road back to 4%.”

30-Year Mortgage Rate forecast for December 2024. Maximum interest rate 6.08%, minimum 5.57%. The average for the month 5.78%. The 30-Year Mortgage Rate forecast at the end of the month 5.90%.

Policymakers expect their interest-rate hikes to push the unemployment rate, now at 3.6%, to 4.5% in the last quarter of 2023, and to 4.6% in 2024.

Just because there's a recession doesn't necessarily mean rent prices go down. In fact, during the 2008 recession, it was the exact opposite. In the current rental market, we have seen the rate of increase in rental prices come down, but this only translates to lower rent prices if you're in select markets.

Is Manhattan real estate a bubble? ›

Presently, it seems that New York is not currently in a housing bubble. In 2021, the median home price for Manhattan was around $1.4 million, representing an increase of 2.6% year-over-year, much lower than the extreme surges observed during past housing bubbles.

In 2008, the housing market bubble burst when subprime mortgages, a huge consumer debt load, and crashing home values converged. Homeowners began defaulting on the home loans.

Winter is usually the cheapest time of year to purchase a home. Sellers are often motivated, which automatically translates into an advantage to you. Most people suspend their listings from around Thanksgiving to the New Year because they assume buyers are scarce.

When is the best time to buy a house in New York? If finding the right home is more important to you than getting a good deal, spring is the best time to buy. In New York, the spring season has a boom in listings, which creates more options for buyers.

Nationally, the best time to sell a house is March if you're trying to sell quickly, while the best time to maximize profit is July. Zillow recommends listing your home for sale in March, but no later than Labor Day, based on historical market trends.

The world's most expensive cities are jointly New York and Singapore, according to the annual Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) survey.

The median salary in New York, NY is $59,752, with 80% of salaries falling between $31,200 and $150,000. In New York, NY average wages are trending up. The average salary across all industries increased 2.5% over the last year.

Which City Is More Affordable: Los Angeles or New York City? Both NYC and LA are among the most expensive cities in both the U.S. and the world. However, the average cost of living in LA is also 24-27% lower than that of NYC.

Possible Depreciation

Appreciation is an important fact to consider when you're trying to determine whether a home is an investment. If the appreciation rate is high enough, then the added value you'll earn from the home will make the investment worth it within a certain period of time.

What is the outlook for flipping houses? ›

House-flipping gross profit and return on investment

In 2022, the average return on investment (ROI) for house flipping was 26.9%, and gross profit was $67,900, according to Attom. Popular as it is, house flipping has become less profitable over the past several years.

The combination of persistent buyer demand and low inventory has driven property prices up. There are fewer sellers, so prospective buyers need to contend with higher housing prices. As such, if you buy a home in 2023, you're likely to pay a premium.

Is House Flipping Profitable in 2023? Yes! If you get the basics right, flipping homes in California is easier in 2023 than flipping homes in 2021's competitive market. You Make Money When You Buy Your Flip: Stick to the home flipper's 70% rule.

Real estate can be an asset class with high returns. It also usually offers a hedge against inflation. Since real estate has historically been inversely correlated with conventional assets, it can be a good way to diversify your investments away from the stock market.

Experts say hopeful buyers should not expect today's high prices to plummet anytime soon. “Home prices won't drop in 2023,” Evangelou says. “I expect pricing to be relatively flat.”

“By the end of 2023, financial market participants expect that the Fed will have increased the target Fed funds rate by 175 to 200 basis points from current levels,” Johnson says. “That would translate into 30-year and 15-year mortgage rates at roughly 8.50 and 7.70 percent.” Some experts are more hopeful, though.

Homeowners owe more on their mortgages than their homes were worth and can no longer just flip their way out of their homes if they cannot make the new, higher payments. Instead, they will lose their homes to foreclosure and often file for bankruptcy in the process.

Overall, the Florida housing market is likely to remain strong in 2023, with continued demand for homes and steady price growth.

While some areas may experience an increase in housing prices, others may experience a decline. In Dallas, TX, housing prices are expected to decrease by 0.1% as of April 2023, followed by a further decline of 0.3% in June 2023, but are projected to increase by 0.7% by March 2024.

Since the start of 2022, the Fed has hiked rates 10 times to combat rising inflation. As of May 2023, the federal funds rate ranges from 5.00% to 5.25%. If this prediction is correct, it won't be surprising to see some of the best high-yield savings accounts offering rates exceeding 4%.

Will mortgage rates go down in 2023 or 2024? ›

Along those lines, organizations like Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association forecast that the average rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages will decline throughout 2023, continuing into the first quarter of 2024.

'I believe by the end of 2023 we will see rates start to fall with a target of between 2.5 to 3 per cent in 2024. 'I believe if the base rate can get back to circa 2.5 per cent, then we will see rates hovering around that mark with a return to products that have not been seen in the mortgage industry for some time.'

During a housing market crash, the value of a home decreases. You will find sellers that are eager to reduce their asking prices.

During a traditional recession, the Fed will usually lower interest rates. This creates an incentive for people to spend money and stimulate the economy. It also typically leads to more affordable mortgage rates, which leads to more opportunity for homebuyers.

Buying a property during a recession has advantages

Auctions may yield a reasonably priced house. To boost the economy, the Fed reduces interest rates during recessions. Banks decrease rates, including mortgage rates. Cheaper mortgage rates mean lower house costs over time.

Selling a home in Florida

Florida sellers still have the upper hand in Florida, simply because there aren't enough homes available to meet demand. In April, there was just a 2.6-month supply of single-family homes; 5 or 6 months is considered a balanced market.

In 2023, experts forecast that the Florida home prices may fall down to 20%. Mortgage Rates Have Almost Doubled: Mortgage rates almost doubled from April 2021's 3.12% to 6.27% for the week ending on April 13, 2023. Sellers are Coming Back, but Slowly: The number of listings dropped by 14.9% in March 2023.

Average Home Value Increase Per Year

National appreciation values average around 3.5 to 3.8 percent per year. Ownerly explains that the average home appreciation per year is based on local housing market trends as well as the economy, and this makes for a great deal of fluctuation.

Austin-Round Rock Metro's home values are expected to drop by 1.4% between March 2023 and March 2024. According to their forecast, the supply and demand dynamics will likely push down prices over the next 12 months.