The price of houses in Portugal is expected to increase at a rate of more than 8% per year over the next 10 years, according to a study carried out by the IFO Institute at the University of Munich, in Germany, which highlighted the forecasts of over a thousand economists on the future of the housing market worldwide.
By TPN, in News, Portugal, Property · 07 Aug 2023, 08:05 · 8 Comments
This data is contained in the Economic Experts Survey, a quarterly global survey carried out among experts in economics. They arise at a time when house prices slowed down to 8.7% in the first quarter of 2023, marking the smallest year-on-year increase since the 2nd quarter of 2021, as reported by the INE's Housing Price Index.
Portugal, which should see an increase of 8.2% per year in house prices over the next ten years, according to a report from CNN Portugal, is analyzed globally in conjunction with other countries in Southern Europe. As a whole, the surveyed economists believe that in this region the value of the sale of houses could rise between 10 and 15% in the next decade.
Even so, this “quite high” average for Southern Europe is mainly supported “by the expectations that economists have in relation to Malta, Serbia and Albania”, says Timo Wochner, a researcher at the IFO institute.
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Comments
Hard to believe these predictions. If wages were rising in Portugal and the credit rules were relaxed they might be more accurate but since neither is happening the increase in prices, if any, will need to come from foreign buyers. They buy in selective areas (thankfully) and it is these areas that any increases will be seen. It will be very patchy however, with some areas seeing falls in prices too.
By Russell Taylor from Other on 08 Aug 2023, 11:33
The truth is no-one knows what will happen to house prices, especially for such a long forecast period of 10 years. To me, 8% annual price increases look too high, implying that house prices will more than double over the period. This is credible if house prices are recovering from lows, but they've spent a decade doing so already, so we're at or near peak prices today.
Consumer prices and wages will likely increase by low single digits over the period, so only very strong demand could sustain such high house price inflation. Pie in the sky!
By Billy Bissett from Porto on 08 Aug 2023, 12:52
With the ending of the golden visa, rent controls & no empty homes policy (among other similar policies) I can’t see how the Portuguese housing ponzi could sustain 8% a year. Housing here is already vastly overpriced for the quality of house on offer.
By Pedro from UK on 08 Aug 2023, 20:11
That means that the prices of homes will reach double the prices of today.
By Khaled Mohamed Ibrahim from Lisbon on 09 Aug 2023, 10:39
Cheap cost of living, great weather, super selection of Organic food, beautiful sea and countryside, empty motorways, non aggressive population, relatively non existent crime rate, last country to be invaded, friends with almost every country on the planet, changing into a multi cultural melting pot by the minute - nah, who in their right mind would want to live here.
By Joe from Alentejo on 09 Aug 2023, 20:54
Joe, not cheap for local Portuguese citizens. Nor do they have quality of life.
By S from Other on 09 Aug 2023, 21:14
Statistically if 40% of all Portuguese houses hold a mortgage and 90% of those mortgages are "variable rate" resetting every six months off Euribor (with mortgage payments having increased 3 to 4x over the last year while wages stay relatively constant), I would say there is no way the Portuguese housing market could average 8% annual appreciation. It would take a whole lot of rich foreigners to come into the country to offset that affect.
By matt from Açores on 16 Aug 2023, 14:06
So cost of living going up, interest rates going up, were all finally paying for the quantitative easing, therefore mortgage rates rising, lots more pointers also indicating that property prices are currently unsustainable.
But they'll be 8% or so higher by next year?
Looks like someone somewhere is trying very hard to steer the housing market.
Wishful thinking at best.
By Richard from UK on 06 Sep 2023, 02:48
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House prices to rise 8% per year in Portugal
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